Article: BAL 3, MIN 2: Opening D’oh!

[USAFChief]

 

Duke was actually fine. He actually had reverse splits last year.

 

Reverse spilts in 31 PAs for the year vs RH hitters last year.

 

He’s had normal platoon splits every other year since 2012, and for his career RH hitters hit him more than 100 pts of OPS higher than LH hitters.

 

Once there 2 on and one out, you just can’t let him pitch to consecutive RH hitters in a tie game. That’s just silly, when your entire pen is available and you have an off day tomorrow to boot.

 

That’s a far piece worse than Castro not blocking a pitch in the dirt.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Duke did exactly what he's supposed to do...throw pitches that appear to be in the zone then dart out of it for swinging strikes

 

Castro's job is to block swing and miss strikes in the dirt

 

If Duke throws the ball in the zone bad things happen...like two run triples to a guy who was way overmatched by mediocre fastballs up in the zone

Duke's job is to throw wild pitches? Out of the zone doesn't have to mean bouncing off the plate. You can pitch effectively outside of the zone and still be in command. The guy threw 2 WPs and a handful of other pitches that could've been if Castro hadn't blocked them. We aren't talking about passed balls. Duke struggled with control that entire inning, I'm not blaming Castro for that. 

[RaoulDuke]

Odirizzi and Reed were a pleasure to watch.

 

Dozier looks to be gearing up for his slow 1st half, I really think he should be somewhere other than leadoff.  Speaking of which Buxton's speed is kind of wasted when Castro is the guy right behind him.  I say bat Buxton first and let him run all over when he gets on and have Mauer there to actually do something with the opportunity.  

 

This was as fresh as the pen is ever going to be why let someone stay out there too long?  

[Platoon]

I was surprised the Duke was left in to pitch to the RH with two on.

 

A note on framing v blocking. Catchers call pitches, there's not a lot of framing to do if you call for a breaking ball in the dirt. And they do call for those.

 

Buxton. Anyone who wonders why he still chases sliders down and away, never watched Tori Hunter and Cuddyer play. Both were susceptible to that pitch well into their retirement.

 

While I didn't like the Buxton or Duke moves, I did like the 5 man infield. You win a few, lose a few.

 

I would have sent Rodney out again in that situation. He had only thrown a handful of pitches. He was brought here to do those things. Its early in the year. A lot of players will be given a chance to make Molitors decisions for him. I am pretty sure Rodney will be one of those. But I do wonder what the vibe will be if they try and "demote" him to a 7th inning guy.

[Tom Froemming]

Took a look at Fernando Rodney's game logs form last year. He made 61 appearances for the Diamondbacks and I don't think they had him pitch in multiple innings ever. Not once. 

 

He always either entered with a clean inning or finished off the inning and was done for the day. That may sound a little extreme, but it definitely seemed to work for Arizona and the guy is 41. Gotta give him a break.

[killertwinfan]

Felt like an opening day game, we showed a lot of rust, especially at the plate.  Our only production was a result of control issues and flare that luckily dropped in between the infielder and outfielder. Some of our strikeouts really weren't fair competition with the light the way it was. Both side made some awful swings especially around the 7th inning, when it seemed to be the most difficult.   That is what was disappointing with Duke. He came in too excited or whatever. He needed to calm down, knowing he had a huge advantage.  Mollie was a little off too.  Let's hope for a quick transition into good regular season habits.  It would be nice to get off to a good start and win this series.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

Dozier looks to be gearing up for his slow 1st half, I really think he should be somewhere other than leadoff.  Speaking of which Buxton's speed is kind of wasted when Castro is the guy right behind him. 

What?

 

1.) That's one game. One game. Two years ago it was "Dozier can't hit in the second half" which made no sense and wasn't backed up in reality. This year it's "Dozier sucks in the first half"???? Joe Mauer has the market cornered on can't-ever-do-enough-for-some-people but Dozier is a close second. C'mon. One game. One freaking game.

 

2.) What the heck does the guy hitting after you matter for speed? Before you, I get. He's slow and keeps you from taking an extra base. But after? Is there a concern that Buxton gets slower because he feels bad that he's so much faster than Castro? If anything, Castro is nice after Buxton because he takes a decent number of pitches and give Buxton time to steal.

 

This made no sense.

[ThejacKmp]

 

While I didn't like the Buxton or Duke moves, I did like the 5 man infield. You win a few, lose a few.

I would have sent Rodney out again in that situation. He had only thrown a handful of pitches. He was brought here to do those things. Its early in the year. A lot of players will be given a chance to make Molitors decisions for him. I am pretty sure Rodney will be one of those. But I do wonder what the vibe will be if they try and "demote" him to a 7th inning guy.

This. We harp on Molitor for a lot but that five man infield was great. Loved it.

 

And absolutely on Rodney. He wiggled out of Hildy's jam and I can't fault him for the pitch to Adam Jones. Sometimes a guy is sitting on something and gets ahold of it. It's not like he gave up the HR to a backup catcher or something.

 

About as nice a loss as you can get. Lots of long flyball outs, a great start, a sweet comeback and some comeuppance for all of the Grossman haters out there (though he hasn't gotten much love for a very professional at-bat in the ninth),

 

Just sad they don't play today.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Took a look at Fernando Rodney's game logs form last year. He made 61 appearances for the Diamondbacks and I don't think they had him pitch in multiple innings ever. Not once. 

 

He always either entered with a clean inning or finished off the inning and was done for the day. That may sound a little extreme, but it definitely seemed to work for Arizona and the guy is 41. Gotta give him a break.

But he threw six pitches in the 10th. If you pulled him and put in Rogers and he gave up the HR, the boards would be complaining about not using Rodney well. 

 

Rodney is 41 but it's the first game of the season. He's not tired or overworked and this isn't his first rodeo - he's done multiple innings many times in his career. I'd get your point if he threw 10-15 pitches in the 10th but six? Not a terrible decision.

[bcs4]

It will be interesting to see if the Twins get some swagger this year.  Great teams expect to win close games and they take ABs like they're down 3 runs every inning. From here on out it's mental.  I think they have the pieces in place.

 

It was sure fun to watch Odorizzi and Reed.  I'm trying to remember the last time I saw a Twins pitcher mix it up that much.  Baltimore couldn't sit on anything.  Really fun.

 

[Tom Froemming]

 

But he threw six pitches in the 10th. If you pulled him and put in Rogers and he gave up the HR, the boards would be complaining about not using Rodney well. 

 

Rodney is 41 but it's the first game of the season. He's not tired or overworked and this isn't his first rodeo - he's done multiple innings many times in his career. I'd get your point if he threw 10-15 pitches in the 10th but six? Not a terrible decision.

The Diamondbacks found a formula to get a very good season out of this guy as a 40-year-old. I'd think it would be wise to try and replicate his usage as best as possible. It's not ideal to be handcuffed into such a limited role, but I think that's putting him in the best position to be successful.

 

I wouldn't have opened the 10th with Hildenberger in the first place, he had already warmed up earlier in the game. Why not let that be Rodney's inning? Or when Hildy needed to be bailed out, go to one of the four other relievers available and have Rodney pitch the 11th.

 

Why carry all those guys if you're not going to use them? They're only playing six games over the next nine days. To have that deep of a bullpen and not dip into it is crazy to me.

[dbminn]

Kepler's 9th inning PA was excellent. Down 1-2, he stretches it to 11 pitches and draws the walk. 

 

Also, congrats to LaMarre for a good start - a hit and a run. I always like to see the part-timers get a little early success.

 

 

[bighat]

 

What?

 

 

 

2.) What the heck does the guy hitting after you matter for speed? Before you, I get. He's slow and keeps you from taking an extra base. But after? Is there a concern that Buxton gets slower because he feels bad that he's so much faster than Castro? If anything, Castro is nice after Buxton because he takes a decent number of pitches and give Buxton time to steal.

 

This made no sense.

 

 

Castro is a crappy hitter.  When Buxton singles and steals 2nd base, he needs a guy behind him who can get a solid single to center field. When Castro strikes out, it's a complete waste of speed on the bases. We'd prefer to have a high-average guy like Mauer, Rosario, etc hitting behind Buxton so that a line drive single will score a run.

[Old Twins Cap]

I saw a Twins' team that looked good on the mound and in the field.

 

They didn't hit the ball great, but, that's been the story this year so far.

 

I expect that will change and they are, despite yesterday, a very fun team to watch.

 

Now, if Sano and Buxton can just lay off the low outside curve.

[Dantes929]

 

Play like that, and you'll win more often than you lose. 

 

Well yeah, but hitting better with RISP would qualify as playing better.

And, you also won't hold your opponent to 2-9 with RISP every game. So, that logic cuts both ways.

 

Ah, good catch. I thought the Orioles were better than that with RISP today.

I don't like that logic either way in terms of qualifying how well the team plays.   You can work the count to get your pitch and then still pop up or swing through a fastball or hit a line out right at someone..   That's just baseball and does not fall under the category of playing well.    1-9 with RISP is meaningless to me in that regard.   At least in my book you can play well and still get beat but if it is results based then you cannot.    I don't know if they played well or not but on the surface the only things I can point to is their guy made a great catch that probably saved the game for them.  We had a pitch where Castro may or may not have given full effort that cost us.   Playing well means taking professional at bats, taking extra bases where you can and not trying for those that are unlikely to succeed, hitting cutoffs, etc..   Take care of the little things and basically don't beat yourself.    To me that is playing well.    A team can play well and still get beat.    

[bighat]

Better shake this one off and just move on and pick up some wins.

 

Showing up at Target Field with an 0-5 record to play your home opener in 42-degree weather against James Paxon ain't a good look.

[David HK]

*sigh* You cats may know I've been on the never-Molly train since the get-go. But willing to give a chance. Ok-- chanceS...

But heck, here we go again, eh? Got lots of new, shiny bullpen toys for Xmas, and he has to break something the first day. (I refer to Mr. Duke's outing). I dunno. We do have what looks like a real Bp this year, as opposed to a hope-this-works one; I just hope he learns to use it effectively.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Don't want to do the math, but I'm skeptical that scoring 2 runs is going to get you anywhere near .500.

It's just one game, so it means nothing, but they need to play a lot better than that IMO.

They generally took good ABs, had several deep drives caught at the warning track and a HR robbed. Process > results when we're analyzing a 1-game sample. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Duke was actually fine. He actually had reverse splits last year. I just would have liked to see him go to Reed to face Joseph mainly because Duke was already at 20+ pitches in the inning.

You want to cite platoon splits from an 18 inning sample?

 

Since moving to relief in 2012, Duke had a .273 wOBA vs LHP, and a .301 wOBA vs RHB. 2.66 FIP vs LHB, 4.10 FIP vs RHB.
 

I don't think you have to point to just the platoon split, or just the pitch count -- the two factors combined to make it a highly suspect decision.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They generally took good ABs, had several deep drives caught at the warning track and a HR robbed. Process > results when we're analyzing a 1-game sample. 

Honest question: what's the average number of warning-track flys per team, per game?

 

B-Ref says 6.1 fly ball outs per AL team, per game last year, and Fangraphs says 7.0. But I know you have more advanced data sources!

[Thrylos]

Two of the things that have to be mentioned about this game (and are positive) are:

 

The Twins' ability to come back from a situation that Baltimore's win probability was 96.3% at some point, instead of going belly up. 

 

Molitor's substitutions when the Twins where hitting (LaMarre PR for Morrison & Grossman PH for Buxton) were essential for this, as was his move to play with 5 infielders to get to that inning ending double play at the 10th.   It seems that relay of interesting information and correct use of that information is happening.

 

What is important is for the Twins to win series.  They have 2 more games and can win the series at Baltimore.

Edited March 30, 2018 by Thrylos

[gocgo]

Simma down people!  It's one game and a good competitive game on the road.  Remember a few years back when we started of 0-9 and were not at all competitive in those 9 games?  And yet that team came back to be competitive!  We are light years ahead of that team.  We were one great catch in the outfield in the 2nd inning away from winning the game.  Rosario hammered that into the wind and got robbed by a great catch.  Great AB by Kepleroni!  That was a mature at bat.  As these young guys mature we are going to witness something amazing.  Go Twins!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Kepler's 9th inning PA was excellent. Down 1-2, he stretches it to 11 pitches and draws the walk. 

If I was an Orioles fan, I'd be a little upset (well, had they lost). No reason to let the RHP Brach face the LHB Kepler in that situation.

[Platoon]

The Duke decision was odd, for this game. Fresh pen, day off tomorrow, several righties. It was really odd. There are times in the heat of a season where you could get cornered into a place where Duke was the lesser of two evils. Yesterday wasn't one. And I doubt it makes some of the others in the pen feel appreciated either. Yup, they are professionals. Professional human beings. And decisions like that, over a season cause your players to wonder about their value in their managers eyes. Not over just one game, but no one has ever considered Molitor a pen management genius either.

[biscuit]

Please continue to post Paul Molitor's postgame interviews. It's a boon to those of us who are out-of-market fans.  Thanks.

[Platoon]

It is one game. But this idea of the team heroically coming back to tie is so "homerish"! It's almost impossible not to score with a kicked ground ball. (Single, lmao) two walks, and a ball hit so poorly the OF can't get to it. Yes, sometime you come back, strike the ball well, and run the bases well. But this wasn't one of them. Baltimore scored two runs for the Twins. And frankly Baltimore didn't exactly shine either. Someone said earlier that you can play well and still lose. You can also play poorly, and still win. .

[raindog]

 

Is it wrong that my first thought when reading this comment was... "Is that one word, or two, or three words?" 

 

I don't see any reason to make that deal unless Castro is the player going to the Marlins. Castro and Garver are fine. No sense in Garver going back to AAA. 

 

I like Garver but he is not someone that stops you from making a trade for JT Realmoto. I would love if they made a deal for him.

 

Anyways, entertaining game with a disappointing finish. But holy overreactions, guys. It's one game. I did not like Molitor's bullpen management. But I'm not worried about any player's performance in the first game of the season. 

[Matthew Lenz]

Good write up, Tom!  I look forward to reading these this season.

 

One thing I disagree with that I am seeing everywhere is Duke being labeled a lefty specialist.  Yes, he does better against lefties, but have you seen his numbers against righties as a relief pitcher?

 

.236/.328/.379 are his career numbers, but from 2014 - 2017 he held right handed batters to .221/.322/.353 with a 9.8 K/9.  Not dominant, but pretty good and good enough to not be labeled a lefty specialist.

[Thrylos]

 

I like Garver but he is not someone that stops you from making a trade for JT Realmoto. I would love if they made a deal for him.

 

J.T. Realmoto's bone bruise on his back, which landed him on the DL, will stop you from making that trade; at least until you figure that he is back and healthy.

[Doubles]

Twins got great pitching yesterday.  Give up 5 hits over 11 innings, and you're gonna win a lot more of those than you'll lose.  I am far from worried about the Twins scoring runs this season, and it will be quite a while before I even give that a second thought.