Article: Twins Considered Favorites To Sign Lance Lynn

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Last summer, Kraft/Heinz made an offer to buy Unilever. The offer was so pathetically low that not only did Unilever reject the offer, they told Kraft to never call them ever again. No negotiations, no conversations. The offer was offensive to them and the response came from their legal department. (If it matters, the offer was for $143B).

 

This new front office still needs to learn a few things about business. Cracking open the business section of a newspaper once in a while might be a good start.

that was a hostile takeover and the rule of when 3G capital can take another crack at Unilever is limited by Unilever having one of its headquarters in the UK. British rules are 6 months between offers.

 

There’s lots of second guessing among the private equity groups around Unilever turning that down. Unilever is becoming more cash strapped as they are raising margin, but can’t sustain sales growth.

 

Not always a good comparison... and yet this one still might be in the end

[Platoon]

It would appear......absolutely no one? Maybe it's the Russians.

Or TwinkieLeaks

[Platoon]

I would think by now both the agents and the FO types know this is an odd year, or the beginning of a sea change. Either way, the agents have to know the FO's are bargain shopping, and the FO have to know the agents will listen to what used to be low ball offers. It's too late in the spring for your feelings to be hurt. If you put a couch on CL for $300, and 2 months later it's still sitting in your living room, you may just edit your ad to include, OBO!

[Riverbrian]

 

It would appear......absolutely no one? Maybe it's the Russians.

 

Yeah... They are meddling in everything.

 

They started doing that after they saw the movie "Charlie Wilson's War". 

[Riverbrian]

 

that was a hostile takeover and the rule of when 3G capital can take another crack at Unilever is limited by Unilever having one of its headquarters in the UK. British rules are 6 months between offers.

There’s lots of second guessing among the private equity groups around Unilever turning that down. Unilever is becoming more cash strapped as they are raising margin, but can’t sustain sales growth.

Not always a good comparison... and yet this one still might be in the end

 

I'll tell you this much.

 

Whenever Ketchup and Free Agency can be tied together.

 

I'm happy. 

[Doctor Wu]

I'm reaching my tolerance limit for all these four-letter words. Lynn ... Cobb ... I just hope some team signs one or both of those players this week, just so I can stop reading about the likelihood of their signing or not.

[nicksaviking]

 

If Lynn is a league average pitcher that would make Lackey a replacement level pitcher 

 

My position has long been that Lynn is unlikely to continue to be a league average pitcher.

[Brock Beauchamp]

While the offer seems insulting and lower than I’d offer Lynn (and I don’t even care for Lynn), has ANY other offer been publicized? Because I haven’t seen anything else publicized.

 

And that matters. If you have one offer on the table and there are two other similar guys on the market with the same problem, is any offer actually insulting?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think 2/20 is insulting. Moustakas just signed for 1/6.5. (Doogie Wolfson's first report of 2/12 could have been insulting, had it been true!) KC also apparently offered Neil Walker a minor league deal, which would be insulting too.

 

2/20 seems like it will be in the ballpark for Lynn, at this point. Maybe the second year is the stretch, but I could easily see him signing a one year deal for $10-14 mil any day now. I wonder if the Twins were willing to do that over a one year deal?

[hugelycat]

My initial reaction was also that 2/20 was a total lowball offer, borderline insulting. But the market this year is unique. Like spycake said, Moustakas signed for 1/6.5. At the beginning of the offseason, no one would have ever guessed he'd sign that low!

 

We don't know what other offers Lynn has on the table. Maybe he's only getting offers in the range of this one. If he is, I'm sure he's upset about it, but he wouldn't have any worse feelings towards the Twins in particular. The market is what it is.

[PseudoSABR]

Yesterday, Heyman suggested the Lynn 2/20 offer was "outdated" (did it precede the trade for Ordizzi or the singing of Morrison?), so it may not represent the current state of the negotiations, nor the Twins willingness to add another starter.

 

The Twins offered Lance Lynn $20 million over two years, reported Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, but that offer may have come awhile back. It was described as “outdated” by one person in the know. It doesn’t hurt to try, but does seem a bit low, considering there were decent but not great middle relievers getting nearly that much.

 

Edited March 9, 2018 by PseudoSABR

[Doomtints]

 

Based on the fact that the turned the worst team in the Twins' history in Minnesota into the postseason, just in one season, I'd say that the front office knows more about what they are doing than it's doubters.

 

Making the postseason and being offensive are not the same thing. Plenty of CEOs have scorched earth policies and the companies are profitable. However, the Twins are in this for the long term. Reputation matters. The Twins won't have the luxury of taking the money and running when things start to catch up with them.

Edited March 9, 2018 by Doomtints

[Doomtints]

 

Yesterday, Heyman suggested the Lynn 2/20 offer was "outdated" (did it precede the trade for Ordizzi or the singing of Morrison?), so it may not represent the current state of the negotiations, nor the Twins willingness to add another starter.

 

If they offered 2/20 weeks or months ago I would say it's even more insulting.

[nicksaviking]

 

The Twins offered Lance Lynn $20 million over two years, reported Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, but that offer may have come awhile back. It was described as “outdated” by one person in the know. It doesn’t hurt to try, but does seem a bit low, considering there were decent but not great middle relievers getting nearly that much.

 

Those middle relievers probably had a usable off speed pitch.

[Thrylos]

 

Non-Disqualified Revenue Sharing Payees: Diamondbacks, Braves, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Astros, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax.  If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick.  These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=MIN&draft_round=3&query_type=franch_round

 

I don't see a pitcher of Berrios's caliber here except for everybody's favorite trade bait, Brian Duensing.  Some great catchers on the list

 

Danny Neagle and Bert Blyleven.  And a guy named Morneau (and a guy who brought Liriano and Nathan).  I would not trade any for Lynn

 

Also, their is the assumption that this front office will draft like the previous front office, which is false...

 

Also, their is the assumption that their 3rd best pick will be their 3rd round pick, which is also false since they are having supplemental  competitive balance pick before that at 75th overall.  So it very well be that pick and not their 3rd round pick. 

 

Lots of good players better than Lynn were taken after the 75th pick overall

Edited March 9, 2018 by Thrylos

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Danny Neagle and Bert Blyleven. And a guy named Morneau (and a guy who brought Liriano and Nathan). I would not trade any for Lynn

 

Also, their is the assumption that this front office will draft like the previous front office, which is false...

 

Also, their is the assumption that their 3rd best pick will be their 3rd round pick, which is also false since they are having supplemental competitive balance pick before that at 75th overall. So it very well be that pick and not their 3rd round pick.

 

Lots of good players better than Lynn were taken after the 75th pick overall

what percentage of players picked 75th overall become league average major leaguers?

 

It requires a volume of picks to become one major league player... how many can you afford to forego for 6-12 years in the future to gain x value for the next 2 to 4 years?

 

Is the x value of Lynn over 2-4 years worth it?

 

I think yes, but maybe not a similar situation in a few years... the pipeline of development and talent isn’t quite there to have any certainty for year 2 but will be a higher likelihood for year 4/5

[nicksaviking]

 

what percentage of players picked 75th overall become league average major leaguers?

It requires a volume of picks to become one major league player... how many can you afford to forego for 6-12 years in the future to gain x value for the next 2 to 4 years?

Is the x value of Lynn over 2-4 years worth it?

I think yes, but maybe not a similar situation in a few years... the pipeline of development and talent isn’t quite there to have any certainty for year 2 but will be a higher likelihood for year 4/5

 

I'm typically not going to get too upset about losing the team's third pick, but to put it in perspective, this year it was Landon Leach, who might not be too exciting. However Leach was picked so as to allow the team to save money and get Blayne Enlow who is typically ranked as a top 10-15 prospect. Thus the Twins would have lost out on Leach and Enlow should they have made this move last year.

 

I wouldn't give up Enlow for Lynn. But then again to be fair, everyone can see from my already stated views that I'd think twice about giving up a BOGO coupon to Chipotle for Lynn so my opinion of what he's worth isn't on par with others.

[laloesch]

I don't understand why others here are being so dismissive and dare i say dishonest about Lynn's repertoire.  He would easily be the Twins 2nd or 3rd starter with Santana out.  Does he throw a lot of fastballs (sinker, cutter, etc)? Yes, but he also throws curves and change ups to keep hitters off balance.  He's not a "fastball only" pitcher as some have stated here.  That's total BS.  He also has good velocity (low 90's and touches 96).  I'd take him on a two year deal no question.  He's certainly better more dependable and consistent than Gibson.

Edited March 9, 2018 by laloesch

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm typically not going to get too upset about losing the team's third pick, but to put it in perspective, this year it was Landon Leach, who might not be too exciting. However Leach was picked so as to allow the team to save money and get Blayne Enlow who is typically ranked as a top 10-15 prospect. Thus the Twins would have lost out on Leach and Enlow should they have made this move last year.

 

I wouldn't give up Enlow for Lynn. But then again to be fair, everyone can see from my already stated views that I'd think twice about giving up a BOGO coupon to Chipotle for Lynn so my opinion of what he's worth isn't on par with others.

FWIW, we only saved ~$400k from Leach. Enlow cost $1.25 mil over slot. Most of that came from Lewis going underslot by $1.05 mil. We picked 1, 35, 37, and 76 last year.

 

This year, we've got 20, 60, 75, 95. I don't think another Enlow-style overslot signing is in the cards, regardless.

 

This might be the year to forfeit our 3rd pick. EDIT: Actually our 3rd pick is in the Competitive Balance round, which is protected. So we'd be forfeiting our 4th pick, but 3rd rounder, at #95. Last year the slot was $564k.

Edited March 9, 2018 by spycake

[Vanimal46]

 

I don't understand why others here are being so dismissive and dare i say dishonest about Lynn's repertoire.  He would easily be the Twins 2nd or 3rd starter with Santana out.  Does he throw a lot of fastballs (sinker, cutter, etc)? Yes, but he also throws curves and change ups to keep hitters off balance.  He's not a "fastball only" pitcher as some have stated here.  That's total BS.  He also has good velocity (low 90's and touches 96).  I'd take him on a two year deal no question.  He's certainly better more dependable and consistent than Gibson.

 

 

Lance Lynn Pitch Type per Fangraphs:

2017 - FB - 81% SL - 11% CB - 4.7% CH - 2.6%
2015 - FB - 85.4% SL - 8% CB - 4.8% CH - 1.9%
2014 - FB -  79% SL - 10.2% CB - 8.4% CH - 2.4%

2013 - FB - 73.2% SL - 12.7% CB - 10.1% CH - 4%

 

There's no dishonesty. He's a predominantly fastball pitcher. 

[Vanimal46]

And, to touch on nicksavikings' main talking point, his sinker percentage has risen exponentially over the last couple of years per Fangraphs:

Sinker percentage:

2012: 21%
2013: 20.5%
2014: 25.8%
2015: 27.5%
2017: 42.2%

 

Just say no to Lance Lynn. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Looking at potential FA destinations, it's worth noting the teams who have already forfeited picks in the 2018 draft: Milwaukee, San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado.

 

If they signed one of Lynn, Cobb, Arrieta, or Holland, here are the picks those teams would have to forfeit:

 

Milwaukee: #125

San Diego: #83

Philadelphia: #79

Colorado: #96

 

Other teams with notably low forfeiture requirements:

 

Miami: #88

Oakland: #84

Cincinnati: #81

 

As I mentioned in my edit to my previous post, the Twins are in a unique position. Like the 15 other revenue sharing recipients, we would have to forfeit our 3rd highest pick, but because we're not in the Competitive Balance Round A (between the 1st and 2nd rounds), and we're not receiving any comp picks ourselves, our 3rd highest pick falls in the Competitive Balance Round B (between the 2nd and 3rd rounds) and is thus protected. So our top pick subject to forfeiture is actually our 4th pick at #95 (albeit technically our "third rounder").

[nicksaviking]

 

Lance Lynn Pitch Type per Fangraphs:

2017 - FB - 81% SL - 11% CB - 4.7% CH - 2.6%
2015 - FB - 85.4% SL - 8% CB - 4.8% CH - 1.9%
2014 - FB -  79% SL - 10.2% CB - 8.4% CH - 2.4%

2013 - FB - 73.2% SL - 12.7% CB - 10.1% CH - 4%

 

There's no dishonesty. He's a predominantly fastball pitcher. 

 

And that's not even showing how poorly rated his very rarely used offspeed stuff is:

 

2017 - FB 15.4 SL 4.9   CB -2.4 CH -4.4

 

And Fangraphs calling his breaking pitch a slider is generous, Brooksbaseball thinks it's simply a cutter:

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=458681&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=pcount&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=03/09/2018

[laloesch]

 

Lance Lynn Pitch Type per Fangraphs:

2017 - FB - 81% SL - 11% CB - 4.7% CH - 2.6%
2015 - FB - 85.4% SL - 8% CB - 4.8% CH - 1.9%
2014 - FB -  79% SL - 10.2% CB - 8.4% CH - 2.4%

2013 - FB - 73.2% SL - 12.7% CB - 10.1% CH - 4%

 

There's no dishonesty. He's a predominantly fastball pitcher. 

 

People are saying he's 100% a fastball only pitcher.  DISHONEST

[laloesch]

 

And that's not even showing how poorly rated his very rarely used offspeed stuff is:

 

2017 - FB 15.4 SL 4.9   CB -2.4 CH -4.4

 

And Fangraphs calling his breaking pitch a slider is generous, Brooksbaseball thinks it's simply a cutter:

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=458681&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=pcount&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=03/09/2018

 

A slider and a cutter don't even break the same way.  

[laloesch]

 

And, to touch on nicksavikings' main talking point, his sinker percentage has risen exponentially over the last couple of years per Fangraphs:

Sinker percentage:

2012: 21%
2013: 20.5%
2014: 25.8%
2015: 27.5%
2017: 42.2%

 

Just say no to Lance Lynn. 

 

Fine your opinion.  I say yes.

[Mr. Brooks]

People are saying he's 100% a fastball only pitcher. DISHONEST

I went back and re-read the thread, just to be sure. I didn't see anyone write that he's a 100% fastball only pitcher.

I may have missed it, can you please quote the post(s) you are referring to?

[Mr. Brooks]

A slider and a cutter don't even break the same way.

That's news to me.

[The Wise One]

 

My position has long been that Lynn is unlikely to continue to be a league average pitcher.

Smoke and mirrors for 4-5 years? That is one good act or there are flaws in metrics

[The Wise One]

 

Danny Neagle and Bert Blyleven.  And a guy named Morneau (and a guy who brought Liriano and Nathan).  I would not trade any for Lynn

 

Also, their is the assumption that this front office will draft like the previous front office, which is false...

 

Also, their is the assumption that their 3rd best pick will be their 3rd round pick, which is also false since they are having supplemental  competitive balance pick before that at 75th overall.  So it very well be that pick and not their 3rd round pick. 

 

Lots of good players better than Lynn were taken after the 75th pick overall

Bert was  in the early 50s as an overall pick as there were less teams then. Even then, 4 picks out of 50 years. That would leave 44 other quality players that you would trade for Lynn, and the other team wouldn't take