Twins Still Pursuing Lance Lynn?

[nicksaviking]

id like a higher likelihood of success than hope you can get by.

Yeah but this team already is tying up 40-man spots for Odorizzi, Santana, Sanchez, Gibson and Hughes. These guys already have next to no room to grow into a front line starter. I don't think there is any more room for completely average starters like Lynn and Cobb who have no hope of leading a rotation.

 

And intentionally capping your team's potential might not even be the biggest problem, you get these no ceiling vets in a change of scenery and they're just as likely to go bust as anyone, but since they're a vet and they're getting paid well they keep getting futile chance after chance after chance. Pelfrey, Nolasco and Hughes should have never gotten the leash they did.

 

No more of these kinds of pitchers unless it's a one year deal.

[DaveW]

Even a 3 year deal wouldn't be 'that bad' it's doubtful the guy just falls off a complete cliff where at the very least he can remain a backend guy.

I'm all for them getting Lynn, who has consistently been a 3 WAR pitcher, it's not super sexy but again, it's stable, reliable and a lot better than plans B thru Z. 

My ONLY hesitation is that this would preclude the Twins from actually going after the front of the rotation arm they NEED sometime in the next 24 months.

I'm not sure Santana or Berrios fit the bill of a "very good #2" much less an 'ace' in the next two seasons.

 

[DaveW]

 

Yeah but this team already is tying up 40-man spots for Odorizzi, Santana, Sanchez, Gibson and Hughes. These guys already have next to no room to grow into a front line starter. I don't think there is any more room for completely average starters like Lynn and Cobb who have no hope of leading a rotation.

And intentionally capping your team's potential might not even be the biggest problem, you get these no ceiling vets in a change of scenery and they're just as likely to go bust as anyone, but since they're a vet and they're getting paid well they keep getting futile chance after chance after chance. Pelfrey, Nolasco and Hughes should have never gotten the leash they did.

No more of these kinds of pitchers unless it's a one year deal.

I mean Sanchez, Gibson and Hughes all could/should be cut after this year if they don't improve.

Hughes is the only one signed longer, and frankly if he can't come back (I'm rooting for him FWIW as I like him as a player) they prob should just eat the money and move on. 

I'd rather the Twins be 'set' in the mid and back rotation so they can focus on getting the front of the rotation in order, rather than what we went into this off-season with:

Santana and a bunch of question marks. (Berrios obviously has upside and deserves a rotation spot for the near and hopefully long term future but he's still a bit of a wild card)

Even assuming Berrios would settle in as a solid #3 this year, the Twins still had 60% of a rotation that had a ton of question marks:

Gibson: I mean this guy is so hit or miss, he either looks like a solid #4/#5 type or looks like the worst pitcher in the league.

Mejia: coming off a poor season.

Hughes/May: Coming off major injuries

And everyone else is a rookie or someone without a good track record at all.

I'd rather go into next off-season with 4-5 guys you feel confident in for spots 2-5, and just focus on getting that 'ace' rather then having to rebuild a full rotation.

[Vanimal46]

Even a 3 year deal wouldn't be 'that bad' it's doubtful the guy just falls off a complete cliff where at the very least he can remain a backend guy.

I'm all for them getting Lynn, who has consistently been a 3 WAR pitcher, it's not super sexy but again, it's stable, reliable and a lot better than plans B thru Z. 

My ONLY hesitation is that this would preclude the Twins from actually going after the front of the rotation arm they NEED sometime in the next 24 months.

I'm not sure Santana or Berrios fit the bill of a "very good #2" much less an 'ace' in the next two seasons.

 

That would be my hesitation too... Ownership justifying that we spent $x MM on Lynn/Pineda and all of the bullpen guys! Now you expect us to sign another pitcher to a larger contract this offseason?

 

Lynn is certainly not a sexy name. In the AL it's fair to say that WAR is going to decrease. While I agree he's better than plans B thru Z, I'm not feeling good about locking him in for multiple years. He's not a difference maker SP IMO.

[DaveW]

 

That would be my hesitation too... Ownership justifying that we spent $x MM on Lynn/Pineda and all of the bullpen guys! Now you expect us to sign another pitcher to a larger contract this offseason?

 

That's the most frustrating thing about being a Twins fan.

You have an owner who literally knows nothing about baseball (by his own admission) but also hamstrings his FO to always make sure the bottom line is strong.

I don't want to get into another "Twins have a X number media market blah blah blah" debate with people, but you are exactly right, I could see the Pohlads pulling that card, and it doesn't seem too out of the realm ditto with: "You wanna sign Yu Darvish for WHAT? Come on! We gave Mauer all that money just a short 6 years ago!"

One thing I don't think the Pohlads know or really care about is prospects, which makes me believe maybe it's time to get really aggressive in the next 12 months at some point to try to land a somewhat affordable SP through the trade market.

Ideally some of our top prospects in the minors put up some good numbers this year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Given last season was Lynn's recovery season, I suspect he might be far more amenable to a 1 year deal. If he pitched closer to his career norms, he'd likely be looking at a very nice contract next season... this is why I personally would like him over Cobb. He's young enough that a pre-TJS return is a real possibility. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Given last season was Lynn's recovery season, I suspect he might be far more amenable to a 1 year deal. If he pitched closer to his career norms, he'd likely be looking at a very nice contract next season... this is why I personally would like him over Cobb. He's young enough that a pre-TJS return is a real possibility. 

A very good point.

[nicksaviking]

 

I mean Sanchez, Gibson and Hughes all could/should be cut after this year if they don't improve.

Hughes is the only one signed longer, and frankly if he can't come back (I'm rooting for him FWIW as I like him as a player) they prob should just eat the money and move on. 

I'd rather the Twins be 'set' in the mid and back rotation so they can focus on getting the front of the rotation in order, rather than what we went into this off-season with:

Santana and a bunch of question marks. (Berrios obviously has upside and deserves a rotation spot for the near and hopefully long term future but he's still a bit of a wild card)

Even assuming Berrios would settle in as a solid #3 this year, the Twins still had 60% of a rotation that had a ton of question marks:

Gibson: I mean this guy is so hit or miss, he either looks like a solid #4/#5 type or looks like the worst pitcher in the league.

Mejia: coming off a poor season.

Hughes/May: Coming off major injuries

And everyone else is a rookie or someone without a good track record at all.

I'd rather go into next off-season with 4-5 guys you feel confident in for spots 2-5, and just focus on getting that 'ace' rather then having to rebuild a full rotation.

 

I would rather focus on that ace now. If not an ace, something much more resembling one than Cobb or Lynn. If they can't or won't do that, let things lie as they are and cross our fingers that Romero, Gonsalves or Littel are better than expected and can contribute in short order.

 

I don't want the back of the rotation set at all. I don't want to lock any of these types of guys into the gig, they can't be trusted but they are assured of getting more chances than any rookie who may have promise. This team needs pitchers on the 25-man who have higher potential. Unless this team isn't actually attempting to win it all this year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Yeah but this team already is tying up 40-man spots for Odorizzi, Santana, Sanchez, Gibson and Hughes. These guys already have next to no room to grow into a front line starter. I don't think there is any more room for completely average starters like Lynn and Cobb who have no hope of leading a rotation.

And intentionally capping your team's potential might not even be the biggest problem, you get these no ceiling vets in a change of scenery and they're just as likely to go bust as anyone, but since they're a vet and they're getting paid well they keep getting futile chance after chance after chance. Pelfrey, Nolasco and Hughes should have never gotten the leash they did.

No more of these kinds of pitchers unless it's a one year deal.

I'd prefer a front of rotation starter, but I'd take Lance Lynn over Hughes or Sanchez or Mejia. Mejia has an option and will be necessary 6th starter... .so we can't release Hughes or Sanchez to make room for Lance Lynn? Sanchez is $465K to cut right now, Pohlad can find that in the couch cushions

[Doomtints]

If you can lock down a guy like Lance Lynn, you do it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would rather focus on that ace now. If not an ace, something much more resembling one than Cobb or Lynn. If they can't or won't do that, let things lie as they are and cross our fingers that Romero, Gonsalves or Littel are better than expected and can contribute in short order.

 

I don't want the back of the rotation set at all. I don't want to lock any of these types of guys into the gig, they can't be trusted but they are assured of getting more chances than any rookie who may have promise. This team needs pitchers on the 25-man who have higher potential. Unless this team isn't actually attempting to win it all this year.

The thing is, the Twins aren’t getting a front of the rotation starter this season and Lynn doesn’t prevent them from pursuing that next offseason. Just swap the Santana and Lynn contracts and the Twins remain payroll neutral from 2018 to 2019 in the rotation, but gain a huge chunk of money from the Mauer contract.

 

And if you get Lynn, your chances of reaching the postseason increase, along with season ticket sales.

[gunnarthor]

I still think the Twins are better off looking to add a starter through a trade. Not sure who. Cincinnati has a young arm named Tyler Mahle who is the back end of several top 100s and made his ML debut last year. His upside is limited but he could be an innings eating #3. The Reds are in full rebuild and I'm not sure the 24 year old would be part of that rebuild. He'd fit in well with the Mejia/Gonsalves/Romero/Thorpe/Littell group. 

 

I'm just surprised that we haven't been able to make a bigger trade than Ordoizzi.

[wabene]

Yeah but this team already is tying up 40-man spots for Odorizzi, Santana, Sanchez, Gibson and Hughes. These guys already have next to no room to grow into a front line starter. I don't think there is any more room for completely average starters like Lynn and Cobb who have no hope of leading a rotation.

And intentionally capping your team's potential might not even be the biggest problem, you get these no ceiling vets in a change of scenery and they're just as likely to go bust as anyone, but since they're a vet and they're getting paid well they keep getting futile chance after chance after chance. Pelfrey, Nolasco and Hughes should have never gotten the leash they did.

No more of these kinds of pitchers unless it's a one year deal.

This is where I'm at. The deal for Odorizzi is a beaut and one that reflects a FO not inducing head shaking. Signing Lynn or Cobb to a three year deal and my head will start shaking again. Looks to me this unique off-season could produce some one year deals.

[nicksaviking]

 

The thing is, the Twins aren’t getting a front of the rotation starter this season and Lynn doesn’t prevent them from pursuing that next offseason. Just swap the Santana and Lynn contracts and the Twins remain payroll neutral from 2018 to 2019 in the rotation, but gain a huge chunk of money from the Mauer contract.

And if you get Lynn, your chances of reaching the postseason increase, along with season ticket sales.

 

I don't care about being payroll neutral, I care about being 25-man flexible since this team absolutely does not have the starting pitchers it takes to win a WS at the moment and Lynn and Cobb won't help in that regard.

 

We've all seen how painfully difficult it is to get the manager and the GM to remove a below average veteran starting pitchers from the rotation let alone the roster. If Lynn and Cobb and Santana and Gibson and Sanchez and Odorizzi are "Eh not great but not the worst" that ends up being the absolute worst possible outcome. These guys are like glitter; next to impossible to wash off when the party is over and you want to be move on.

[DaveW]

 

I don't care about being payroll neutral, I care about being 25-man flexible since this team absolutely does not have the starting pitchers it takes to win a WS at the moment and Lynn and Cobb won't help in that regard.

 

We've all seen how painfully difficult it is to get the manager and the GM to remove a below average veteran starting pitcher from the rotation let alone the roster. If Lynn and Cobb and Santana and Gibson and Sanchez and Odorizzi are "Eh not great but not the worst" that ends up being the absolute worst possible outcome. These guys are like glitter; next to impossible to wash off when the party is over and you want to be move on.

I put Gibsons chances at sticking with this team past 2018 at about 30%, if he does stick it means he truly 'figured it out' for a full season and improved.

I view Sanchez as nothing more than depth at this point, maybe a guy who gets 8-10 starts this year tops.

I don't understand why we just thumb our noses at a SP who puts up 3.0 WAR regularly and should for the next 2-3 years.

The Twins had exactly TWO SP last year with WARs of 1.0 or above, Santana (4.2) and Berrios (1.7)

Gibson had a 0.2 WAR, I'm not sure I like putting Lynn and Gibson in the same bucket, at all. Also if Lynn is putting up his career averages and giving us 3 WAR a season, then there is no way you would want to 'wash him off' unless for some reason the Twins have 4 other pitchers who are pitching better than that, and if that is the case then they have a really really really good problem.

 

[Guest]

The thing is, the Twins aren’t getting a front of the rotation starter this season and Lynn doesn’t prevent them from pursuing that next offseason. Just swap the Santana and Lynn contracts and the Twins remain payroll neutral from 2018 to 2019 in the rotation, but gain a huge chunk of money from the Mauer contract.

And if you get Lynn, your chances of reaching the postseason increase, along with season ticket sales.

Pitchers will be available at mid-season. Hopefully, also, the Twins will have more high ranking minor leaguers at mid-season, making it easier to swing a trade. If the Rays’ roster keeps going the way it’s going, they may be more amenable to trading Archer.

[Oxtung]

 

I put Gibsons chances at sticking with this team past 2018 at about 30%, if he does stick it means he truly 'figured it out' for a full season and improved.

I view Sanchez as nothing more than depth at this point, maybe a guy who gets 8-10 starts this year tops.

I don't understand why we just thumb our noses at a SP who puts up 3.0 WAR regularly and should for the next 2-3 years.

The Twins had exactly TWO SP last year with WARs of 1.0 or above, Santana (4.2) and Berrios (1.7)

Gibson had a 0.2 WAR, I'm not sure I like putting Lynn and Gibson in the same bucket, at all. Also if Lynn is putting up his career averages and giving us 3 WAR a season, then there is no way you would want to 'wash him off' unless for some reason the Twins have 4 other pitchers who are pitching better than that, and if that is the case then they have a really really really good problem.

 

The more predictive stats do not paint such a rosy picture, as you well know. He had a 4.82 FIP, 4.75 xFIP, 4.85 SIERA last season. Now, he might be able to bounce back to his pre-injury norms, but many of us aren't excited about betting a multiyear contract on a pitcher more likely to be a #5 than a #3. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I put Gibsons chances at sticking with this team past 2018 at about 30%, if he does stick it means he truly 'figured it out' for a full season and improved.

I view Sanchez as nothing more than depth at this point, maybe a guy who gets 8-10 starts this year tops.

I don't understand why we just thumb our noses at a SP who puts up 3.0 WAR regularly and should for the next 2-3 years.

The Twins had exactly TWO SP last year with WARs of 1.0 or above, Santana (4.2) and Berrios (1.7)

Gibson had a 0.2 WAR, I'm not sure I like putting Lynn and Gibson in the same bucket, at all. Also if Lynn is putting up his career averages and giving us 3 WAR a season, then there is no way you would want to 'wash him off' unless for some reason the Twins have 4 other pitchers who are pitching better than that, and if that is the case then they have a really really really good problem.

 

The change of scenery vets who get these kinds of deals are what 50/50 at best not to bust? I like taking risks, but there's so little payoff with guys with next to no ceiling. Tyler Chatwood had me interested, he had velocity and he had some interesting pitches. Not these guys, they just have back-of-the-baseball-card stats; Wins and ERA.

 

I like Lynn better than Cobb who gives up more contact than nearly everyone in the league, but Lynn is basically a 2 1/2 pitch pitcher moving from the NL to the AL with a FB that tops out at about 92 and an increasing reliance on a sinker. His lack of repertoire was why everyone always said he'd never make it in the rotation.

 

Everyone can boo away, but if Lynn comes to the Twins, I'll put my money on Kyle Gibson having a better year than him. "Better" being a relative term.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Given last season was Lynn's recovery season, I suspect he might be far more amenable to a 1 year deal. If he pitched closer to his career norms, he'd likely be looking at a very nice contract next season... this is why I personally would like him over Cobb. He's young enough that a pre-TJS return is a real possibility. 

Last year was basically Cobb's recovery season too -- technically he returned at the very end of 2016, because his surgery was a few months before Lynn's, but they are in a similar boat. They're both 30 years old too. Lynn has been more durable, but their overall effectiveness has been pretty similar. Cobb didn't have quite as severe of a FIP/ERA discrepancy last year either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I still think the Twins are better off looking to add a starter through a trade. Not sure who. Cincinnati has a young arm named Tyler Mahle who is the back end of several top 100s and made his ML debut last year. His upside is limited but he could be an innings eating #3. The Reds are in full rebuild and I'm not sure the 24 year old would be part of that rebuild. He'd fit in well with the Mejia/Gonsalves/Romero/Thorpe/Littell group. 

Mahle actually just turned 23 at the very end of last season. Why would a rebuilding team trade him, exactly? Unless they were blown away by an offer, I suppose.

[laloesch]

 

Lynn for 3 years and $45M would be a very good move to me. I feel like he's being underrated. This would be an ok deal even if he was only as good as he was last year, and if he pitches like he did before the injury, it would be a great deal.

 

I agree.  If was willing to take a deal like that i'd do it in a heart beat.  Sure he's not an ace but I feel he's also being underrated as well Ordorizzi.  Twins are quietly stacking up decent pitching talent.  IMO if they sign Lynn this rotation will be light years better than last season.  They will have more talent then they've had in over a decade and could always trade a starter or two when the youngsters get close.  

[cmoss84]

Man, it would have been cool to sign Darvish. But, realistically, are the Twins ever going to sign an ace (or trade for one) without disgustingly overpaying? We can ALWAYS hope...but chances are slim. More than likely, the only way we come up with an ace is through the farm system. 

 

Berrios, Lynn, Santana would give us 3 border line 2/3's. Odorizzi gives us a nice 4. We have decent competition for the 5th spot this year and our young guys will solidify the rotation in the next couple of years. Things could be much, much worse. Having a decent to potentially really good pen helps as well. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Mahle actually just turned 23 at the very end of last season. Why would a rebuilding team trade him, exactly? Unless they were blown away by an offer, I suppose.

His upside is limited so is he part of the future or is he early? Sorta like how Marty Cordova was ahead of the rest of the Hunter/Jones etc group? I don't know. But I like the idea of targeting guys with years of control and decent floors since the cost for an ace is probably too much. I'm not sure if Mahle is the guy or someone else is out there but that's sort of the idea.

I have no knowledge of the Reds (or most other teams) rebuild so Mahle was more an example as opposed to a specific target. 

[TheLeviathan]

There is no ace coming.  Which stinks, but I'd rather have another number 3 than roll out the AAAA dregs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm just surprised that we haven't been able to make a bigger trade than Ordoizzi.

I think the big stumbling block is Lewis. The Twins have Royce at the top of the board and then a bunch of decent, though somewhat uninspiring, prospects below him.

 

And that probably means when the Twins call for a decent starting pitcher, the opposing front office basically says "Lewis or GTFO".

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea what they are doing, so I won't guess on that answer.....

 

But, and I often agree with him, nicksaviking is wrong, imo.

 

1. There is no ACE available right now. There won't be until July at the earliest, and there might not be then either. 

2. The FO has been quoted as saying they are reluctant (or something like that) to give up prospects in deals.

3. Lynn (and probably Cobb) is likely better than anyone not named Berrios/ESAN, imo. Do people really want Sanchez in this rotation for a month or 6-8 weeks, while we wait for ESAN to return? Ugh.

4. They aren't outbidding anyone next year for what SP will be out there. They didn't outbid anyone this year, when LA and NYY were sitting out the process. They've never done it, they probably never will.

 

So, sure, we'd all rather have an ACE type. But, since they are very unlikely to do that, I'd be good with Lynn on a three year deal.

[Teddy]

 

I think the big stumbling block is Lewis. The Twins have Royce at the top of the board and then a bunch of decent, though somewhat uninspiring, prospects below him.

 

And that probably means when the Twins call for a decent starting pitcher, the opposing front office basically says "Lewis or GTFO".

 

In which case, I'd choose GTFO.

 

Frankly, unless it's a one-year deal for a Lynn or Cobb (or even Arrieta), I wouldn't make another FA deal. Trades might be a different story, if they're planning on getting at least one 40-man-ready guy, which would've facilitated the Chagois move. Otherwise, I can't see why they would've cut him from the 40 yesterday, unless they felt that was the best time to make the move to avoid him being claimed.

 

Hopefully we'll see the logic behind this move soon enough.

[Squirrel]

Given last season was Lynn's recovery season, I suspect he might be far more amenable to a 1 year deal. If he pitched closer to his career norms, he'd likely be looking at a very nice contract next season... this is why I personally would like him over Cobb. He's young enough that a pre-TJS return is a real possibility.

 

Yes, this is my thinking as well as being a better sign than Cobb. But at the beginning of the off-season it was speculated he would be looking for a 4-yr deal and that was an absolute no for me. A 1-yr makes sense to both parties, IMO. Heck, I might consider up to 3, if the 3rd weren’t guaranteed.

[Physics Guy]

 

Even a 3 year deal wouldn't be 'that bad' it's doubtful the guy just falls off a complete cliff where at the very least he can remain a backend guy.

I'm all for them getting Lynn, who has consistently been a 3 WAR pitcher, it's not super sexy but again, it's stable, reliable and a lot better than plans B thru Z. 

My ONLY hesitation is that this would preclude the Twins from actually going after the front of the rotation arm they NEED sometime in the next 24 months.

I'm not sure Santana or Berrios fit the bill of a "very good #2" much less an 'ace' in the next two seasons.

 

This pretty much sums up my feeling.  I have no issues with them adding Cobb or Lynn (preferable Cobb for me).  The only problem I would have is if it prevented them from going after a better arm at the trade deadline.  I would be OK with status quo if I knew that meant they had room to acquire a pitcher in July/August like Houston did with Verlander last year. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In which case, I'd choose GTFO.

Gifted and Talented Front Office?

 

Great Terry Felton Opportunity?