FA's Arrieta or Lynn the only two choices

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Nolasco underperformed his FIP/xFIP and any other advanced stat for many years with multiple teams. Some pitchers just underperform regardless of the factors that you state.

 

Nolasco should have been a very good pitcher over his entire career (3.94 xFIP) but the reality is that he was okay with the Marlins and awful after leaving them despite good peripherals. This means though that you could compare virtually any good #3 level pitcher to him and make the same type of comparison as you have done with Cobb.

im not sure Nolasco underperformed his peripherals as a Twin. He has always given up a lot of contact as a pitcher which doesn’t necessarily make him “bad”. Those Twins teams were terrible fielders.

 

Seems to me like “Icky” Ricky is a fly ball pitcher and Cobb is more of a ground baller

[Dantes929]

 

Earned run average is a team metric. Extra bases earned is as much catcher and infielders as it is pitcher. If you are evaluating a player statistically you need to isolate the metrics to outcomes the player can control.

Your buddies 3 ERA, as a control artist, he’s giving up a ton of contact. If the team he’s playing for doesn’t field their positions well, his earned runs will skyrocket. Does that make him bad? Does it make him a bad pitcher if he has a terrible SS that can’t get to anything?

Except he outperformed the college pitchers on his own team as well.   I guess what I don't buy is that over time if two pitchers have the same % of balls put into play they will have  the same results.   He did have good defense behind him but had enough stuff and enough control that the batters just never seemed to square the ball up.     I have never considered pitch to contact a bad philosophy but there is pitch to contact that allows your defense to make plays and there is pitch to contact that no defense can make up for.    The first half of this decade the Twins were the 2nd kind.    Of course the defense was bad with the Twins for Nolasco, especially in the outfield and maybe it was bad on all the other teams he played for but he did seem to give up a lot of homers and other rockets with guys on base when I saw him.   

[kab21]

 

im not sure Nolasco underperformed his peripherals as a Twin. He has always given up a lot of contact as a pitcher which doesn’t necessarily make him “bad”. Those Twins teams were terrible fielders.

Seems to me like “Icky” Ricky is a fly ball pitcher and Cobb is more of a ground baller

The Twins were bad at defense but that doesn't account for the following numbers.

2014 ERA = 5.38 and xFIP = 3.97

2015 ERA = 6.75 and xFIP = 4.01

2016 ERA = 5.13 and xFIP = 4.47 (this one is within the realm of variation but 4.47 is still pretty bad)

 

When you combine this with his nearly 2000 innings of pitching that have a 0.60 split between xFIP and ERA then it is pretty apparent that he isn't as good as his advanced stats say.

And he was one of the worst starters on Twins teams that had many bad pitchers during 2014-2016. All of those pitchers had the same defense behind them.

Not so fun facts about Nolasco. In his 9 full seasons his 3rd best ERA is 4.42 but yet he had 6 seasons with a 4.00 or lower xFIP. The results have never been there for Ricky. He has consistently been a bad pitcher.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Except he outperformed the college pitchers on his own team as well. I guess what I don't buy is that over time if two pitchers have the same % of balls put into play they will have the same results. He did have good defense behind him but had enough stuff and enough control that the batters just never seemed to square the ball up. I have never considered pitch to contact a bad philosophy but there is pitch to contact that allows your defense to make plays and there is pitch to contact that no defense can make up for. The first half of this decade the Twins were the 2nd kind. Of course the defense was bad with the Twins for Nolasco, especially in the outfield and maybe it was bad on all the other teams he played for but he did seem to give up a lot of homers and other rockets with guys on base when I saw him.

Agreed, PTC isn’t inherently bad, and there’s levels of effectiveness with PTC.

 

The delta in Nolasco’s FIP to ERA is largely home run rate. Home runs in aggregate can vary wildly across the league. One year up, one year down.

 

Should Icky Ricky be dinged for them? he gave up the homers and homers are bad... but goodness, seems like everyone in the league hit 20 jacks last year.

 

Ricky Nolasco is a number 4 pitcher, he got paid like one, but that’s 4 years and 48mil or whatever he got at the time. It’s a lot of money and one of if not the largest contract the Twins had ever dished to an outside FA.

 

Seems like Twins fans hold Ricky accountable to the money without the context. Already doing that with Lynn and Cobb, they’re 3rd or 4th starter types not much better than Nolasco or say better than Jaime Garcia, but not huge leaps and bounds better. The delta in talent between Darvish and Cobb/Lynn is WAY bigger than the delta between Cobb/Lynn and Garcia.

[kab21]

 

Agreed, PTC isn’t inherently bad, and there’s levels of effectiveness with PTC.

The delta in Nolasco’s FIP to ERA is largely home run rate. Home runs in aggregate can vary wildly across the league. One year up, one year down.

Should Icky Ricky be dinged for them? he gave up the homers and homers are bad... but goodness, seems like everyone in the league hit 20 jacks last year.

Ricky Nolasco is a number 4 pitcher, he got paid like one, but that’s 4 years and 48mil or whatever he got at the time. It’s a lot of money and one of if not the largest contract the Twins had ever dished to an outside FA.

Seems like Twins fans hold Ricky accountable to the money without the context. Already doing that with Lynn and Cobb, they’re 3rd or 4th starter types not much better than Nolasco or say better than Jaime Garcia, but not huge leaps and bounds better. The delta in talent between Darvish and Cobb/Lynn is WAY bigger than the delta between Cobb/Lynn and Garcia.

Ricky gave up HR's at his career rate as a Twin so it wasn't merely a one season up and one season down issue.

There is no measurement of actual results that says Ricky performed like a #4 for the Twins. He might have been unlucky (for all 3 Twins seasons and almost all of his 9 full MLB seasons) but his actual performance was dreadfully awful.

[Vanimal46]

Arrieta and Lynn may ACTUALLY be the only 2 choices after the next couple of days...

 

Jamie Garcia - signed with Toronto
Jason Vargas - signed with NY Mets

Chris Tillman - reportedly has multiple offers in hand

Andrew Cashner - reportedly has multiple offers in hand 

[jimmer]

 

Arrieta and Lynn may ACTUALLY be the only 2 choices after the next couple of days...

 

Jamie Garcia - signed with Toronto
Jason Vargas - signed with NY Mets

Chris Tillman - reportedly has multiple offers in hand

Andrew Cashner - reportedly has multiple offers in hand 

Cashner is signed. Orioles, 2 years

[nicksaviking]

 

Arrieta and Lynn may ACTUALLY be the only 2 choices after the next couple of days...

 

Jamie Garcia - signed with Toronto
Jason Vargas - signed with NY Mets

Chris Tillman - reportedly has multiple offers in hand

Andrew Cashner - reportedly has multiple offers in hand 

 

To be fair though, if the Twins were going to walk away from the off season with only one of those names as their only starting pitching acquisition, they might as well not do anything at all because inking one of those guys to a token deal isn't going to bring out any fewer pitchforks.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not that I wanted him, but Wade Miley is off the board too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

MLBTR's FA tracker, filtered by unsigned SP (although they still list Vargas):

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018-mlb-free-agent-tracker/positions-9__status-0

[gil4]

 

I want one of Lynn or Cobb, that's my first choice, second, and third choice.  I'd prefer Lynn but that's based on very little info, including never seeing either one pitch.

 

I don't ever want to feel like I need to cheer for John Lackey.  But that's just me.

I agree on the Lackey thing, although I can't remember why.

[TheLeviathan]

Clock is ticking and now the options are thinning.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Clock is ticking and now the options are thinning.

earlier in the hot stove season I was in favor of the wait it out approach. Seems like signing values are down a bit from projected but the risk of being caught without a chair is real.

[Vanimal46]

 

To be fair though, if the Twins were going to walk away from the off season with only one of those names as their only starting pitching acquisition, they might as well not do anything at all because inking one of those guys to a token deal isn't going to bring out any fewer pitchforks.

 

They need 2 of those names IMO. I know your stance was top of the rotation pitcher or bust this off-season, and I desperately wanted one too. Now there's none left, and they still need 2 SP... Relying on Hughes and planning to skip the 5th pitcher is madness. Heading into the season with Hughes, Slegers, Jorge, or Gonsalves in the rotation from the get-go won't be pretty. 

[Drew]

 

I agree on the Lackey thing, although I can't remember why.

 

He cheated on and divorced his wife while she was recovering from a double mastectomy due to breast cancer. Besides that he's just a crusty old man yelling at a cloud accusing it of doing PEDs. No thank you. 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Reading through responses here, I’m on the Lance Lynn train officially.

[big dog]

 

I agree on the Lackey thing, although I can't remember why.

Can be really whiny with umpires, which just can't help a team.  There was quite a bit of chatter from Boston fans who were glad to see him shown the door, though I don't remember details.

[gunnarthor]

 

Can be really whiny with umpires, which just can't help a team.  There was quite a bit of chatter from Boston fans who were glad to see him shown the door, though I don't remember details.

I believe he also takes forever to throw a pitch.  

 

https://deadspin.com/john-lackey-should-be-in-jail-1819503434

[FormerMinnasotan]

I have to wonder if what is hanging up the Twins in signing Lance Lynn is his personality. The Twins like to brand themselves as a PC ball club and anyone who’s a malcontent (Lohse, Garza, Valencia, Young, Arica) is labeled a “clubhouse cancer”. Lynn is known for being not PC and speaking his mind no matter what. I just wonder if that’s the only reason the Twins won’t touch him. To me that seems to be the only reason (because we could easily offer a contract he’d agree to).

[jimmer]

 

I believe he also takes forever to throw a pitch.  

 

https://deadspin.com/john-lackey-should-be-in-jail-1819503434

Also, while on the mound, he yells at his own players if they make what he determines to be a mistake.  Right there, in front of everyone, right on the field.

[bighat]

 

Clock is ticking and now the options are thinning.

Agreed.

 

Cashner to the Orioles

Jaime Garcia to the Jays

Wade Miley to the Brewers

Volquez (injured) to the Rangers

 

Looks like there's not much left in the dumpster, they might have to actually sign Lynn, Cobb, or Arrieta after all.

[Oxtung]

After hearing all the rumor about Arrieta's rapid decline this year I finally decided to look at how bad it was. Right enough, he's lost almost 2 mph on his FB in 2017. Obvious sign of either serious injury, major age related decline or both. OK, let's pass on that! Boom.  Done. No need to look further.

 

...

 

Until I found this article on fivethirtyeight.com. It seems the switch from PITCHf/x to STATCAST didn't go particularly well, at least early in the year. There were a bunch of problems with missing data, trouble tracking pitches, movement that didn't match pitchers previous seasons data, and pitch locations that were impossible (including a pitch that apparently rose 20 inches on it's way to the plate). This seems to be a problem with the calibration of the system within individual parks. So one park might underrepresent vertical break by 2 inches while another mistakenly tracks the pitches an inch more toward the 1st baseline. In our case however the most interesting part comes about two-thirds of the way through the article with this little nugget of information:

 

Despite the aforementioned league-wide hike in measured velocity, Chicago Cubs starters have registered lower fastball velocities than last year, sparking concern among Cubs fans. Writers have pointed to poor starts by Chicago pitchers as evidence that the velocity drop-offs are real, and even suggested that it could be part of a conscious effort by Cubs pitchers to decrease fatigue. But the far simpler explanation is bad data: If the club’s pitch tracker is poorly calibrated, it could make it look like pitchers are losing velocity when in fact the readings are just wrong. Supporting this idea is the fact that opposing teams’ pitchers in Wrigley have also registered a lower raw velocity than average. Unless the Cubs’ velocity woes are contagious, it seems likely that Statcast errors are driving some of their low numbers.

 

Hmmmm...That is interesting. So I went and did a little further digging. Every single pitcher that threw for the Cubs over the last 2 years registered a decrease in their 4-seam fastball velocity in 2017. In fact almost all their pitch types decreased in velocity. According to Fangraphs 88% of their fastballs, curveballs, sliders, everything, decreased in velocity in 2017. The drop in starting pitcher fastball velocities ranged from 1.1 to 2.6 mph with Arrieta losing 1.7mph.

 

To be clear, I'm not saying Arrieta didn't lose any velocity; he is 32 after all. However, it also seems clear that the velocity readings from Wrigley need to be taken with a huge grain of salt at this point. 

 

I tried looking at home/away splits velocities but couldn't figure out how to simply do that. I also didn't find any updated information about the STATCAST systems configuration woes (other than a generic qoute from Tom Tango saying, "These errors got smaller over the course of the season [across baseball]"), though I didn't flex my google foo too hard. If anyone wants to keep digging into this those would be good places to start, IMO.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Agreed.

 

Cashner to the Orioles

Jaime Garcia to the Jays

Wade Miley to the Brewers

Volquez (injured) to the Rangers

 

Looks like there's not much left in the dumpster, they might have to actually sign Lynn, Cobb, or Arrieta after all.

 

So you're saying we'll do nothing then?

[Vanimal46]

I believe he also takes forever to throw a pitch.

 

https://deadspin.com/john-lackey-should-be-in-jail-1819503434

#NeverForget

 

Lackey would drive me crazy with his pace. I'd skip every one of his starts in some alternative universe where he is a Twin.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

So you're saying we'll do nothing then?

there was one left in the dumpster until now

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/964627824190607360

[DaveW]

Apparently the FO disagreed, as they chose door number 3.

[big dog]

 

Also, while on the mound, he yells at his own players if they make what he determines to be a mistake.  Right there, in front of everyone, right on the field.

No, thank you, I don't believe I'll order any of that, even if it is the Catch of the Day.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

I don't see how you can square this with the fact that the Twins have no payroll commitments beyond 2019.

 

I'm moving this tangent away from the fangraphs thread.

 

Just because nothing is on the books doesn't mean the current FO isn't planning for spending there (extensions).

 

And despite you calling it 7 different forms of "irrational", I think we know for near fact that this FO is not spending to the limit that the ownership has allowed for them.  How you ask?  Well, if reports are true that we offered Darvish 5 years and 110M, that is a 22M allotment they were clearly allowed by ownership.  Since then we have traded for Odorizzi and signed Sanchez.  At minimum that is a 7M commitment and at most it is 13M.  By my math that means they have anywhere between 9 and 15M they are choosing not to spend that ownership has green lit them for.  If 9M they could've signed Dyson has a right-handed bench bat or some other arm.  14M is probably enough to get Cobb or Lynn.  But yet, by all accounts, the team is done adding players.

 

So, contrary to your assertion, I think we know with reasonable certainty that they are in fact choosing to keep payroll lower than ownership would allow.  And I'm sure ownership loves that.  And, I agree that it leaves wins on the table right now.  It's why I'm upset we appear to be done.  We shouldn't be done, we clearly have more money we could be spending that could help here and now.

[alskntwnsfn]

Not sure if this has been brought up yet, but I'm going to put this out there for some context:

 

Anibal Sanchez (2017): 8.9 K/9 2.5 BB/9 (with 28G and 17GS in the AL)

Jake Arrieta (2017): 8.7 K/9 2.9 BB/9

 

That said, I am a big Arrieta fan. If we can get him for reasonable money that doesn't hamstring us down the road, I'd love to have him.

[Doomtints]

I'm not too worried about Santana being out. This is the year for Berrios to rise to ace material if he is ever going to do it. Santana starting his decline now, if it happens, is decent timing.

 

Santana's performance isn't going to fall off the map in any case. "Regress" doesn't mean "drop to a #5." Santana will still win some important games and will be a trusted arm in the rotation.

 

I don't see the Twins paying what Arrieta is probably asking for. We already saw them unwilling or unable to pay Darvish market value.

 

As for Lance Lynn, yes he's the best pitcher on the board and he probably always was. The Twins shouldn't have wasted time on Darvish, but since they did I think it's unlikely they land Lynn either. Competition is hotter for him now. 

 

Cobb fits the profile of who the Twins usually chase as his market value is going to be driven by injury concerns. He's cheaper and he was good once, but the Twins would only sign him if no one else will, and then only to a short term deal.