Twins make offer for Chris Archer

[terrydactyls]

Or just sign Lynn and Cobb to short-term, high yearly salary contracts. Keep all the prospects and see what you have for a team in 2019.

[darin617]

 

I sorta follow statcast, velocity, and pitches when it comes to pitching and 5 younger guys stood out to me as relatively affordable trade targets with talent similar to Chris Archer (also including Julio Teheran).

 

Luis Castillo (Reds), Luis Gohara (Braves), Jose Urena (Marlins), Luis Cessa, (Yankees), and Dinelson Lamet (Padres).

 

To me personally, Lament especially stood out, something was different about him when he faced of against Erv and the Twins lineup (missed a lot of bats). For Lament, probably wouldn't have to give up Kepler, since the San Diego Padres badly need to replenish their system.

 

None of those pitchers are making any money. Their teams would not give up young dirt cheap pitchers unless you completely blew them away. No way for the overpay.

[Han Joelo]

Keep in mind the Rays aren't considering a trade with Baseball America or Keith Law.  Those lists, while somewhat accurate, are more about satisfying schmucks like us.  "Oh yeah, we got 3 top hundred prospects for________."  Who knows how internal evaluations really go.  Keep in mind, it would seem the Twins balked at trading Dozier not because of the Top 20 prospect involved, but rather the lower tier prospects involved (or not, as the case might have been.)

 

A guy like Graterol might be what really would grease the skids on a potential Archer trade, much like Alvarez seemed to float a lot of boats around here.

 

On the other hand, the Rays did bite on that De Leon bait.  Wait a second...

[mudcat14]

 

To me personally, Lament especially stood out, something was different about him when he faced of against Erv and the Twins lineup (missed a lot of bats). For Lament, probably wouldn't have to give up Kepler, since the San Diego Padres badly need to replenish their system.

 

Lamet looks good.  Really good.  Not sure what he would cost, but if we took on Headley and his salary, it could help grease the wheels.

[nicksaviking]

 

Keep in mind the Rays aren't considering a trade with Baseball America or Keith Law.  Those lists, while somewhat accurate, are more about satisfying schmucks like us.  "Oh yeah, we got 3 top hundred prospects for________."  Who knows how internal evaluations really go.  Keep in mind, it would seem the Twins balked at trading Dozier not because of the Top 20 prospect involved, but rather the lower tier prospects involved (or not, as the case might have been.)

 

A guy like Graterol might be what really would grease the skids on a potential Archer trade, much like Alvarez seemed to float a lot of boats around here.

 

On the other hand, the Rays did bite on that De Leon bait.  Wait a second...

 

It seems to me what the teams typically want are MLB ready players while the fans and prospect wonks want the unknown players, particularly teams that don't want to rebuild so much as try to stay relevant. Guys with MLB experience, even with their warts, tend to carry more value than we anticipate.

[howeda7]

I would offer them Kepler, Gordon and any two pitchers not named Gonsalves for Archer and taking Span. That seems reasonable. 

[RaoulDuke]

Make Buxton, Berrios, and Lewis untouchable.  If a trade can be worked out outside those 3 I think it is probably worth it to the Twins.

 

I doubt Tampa would do it without Lewis inclusion though unless they wanted to take quantity over quality.  As others have said they just really aren't motivated to move him he will be worth relatively the same for another year or 2 so they can wait to be blown away. 

[USAFChief]

ERA....

fWAR...

[Tomj14]

 

Well you are under valuing our guys and over valuing theirs. Archer is not without blemishes too

I said that is what Tampa would/should say.

The Twins should say we are offering a future all star right fielder, a everyday SS for the next 10-15 years, and possible #1 starter at best or a dominant RP at the very worst, and even after getting those guys we will though in another guy that is likely to be a 4th or 5th starter for a starter that they league figured out last year but we think we can turn him around.

[terrydactyls]

I said that is what Tampa would/should say.

The Twins should say we are offering a future all star right fielder, a everyday SS for the next 10-15 years, and possible #1 starter at best or a dominant RP at the very worst, and even after getting those guys we will though in another guy that is likely to be a 4th or 5th starter for a starter that they league figured out last year but we think we can turn him around.

This sounds like a horrible deal for the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

How much value does a guy in rookie ball really have? Sure, he was the #1 overall pick but he is raw and 4 years away. Does anyone know any trades where the main piece was a player in rookie ball?

Lewis actually made it to A-ball last year. Eloy Jimenez was traded out of A-ball last year. Trea Turner was in A-ball too, although as a college draftee.

 

Admittedly Lewis is still pretty inexperienced, and I wouldn't be surprised if Tampa still had some uncertainty about his valuation that complicated the deal, even if the Twins were willing to include him. (Although I rather doubt they are.)

[lukeduke1980]

With the pitching Tampa has, I think they're a bat or two away from sporting a really nice team.  I think they should resign Logan Morrison and add a Jose Bautista and give it a run.  If things tank, trade Archer next year. 

[Oxtung]

 

Lewis actually made it to A-ball last year. Eloy Jimenez was traded out of A-ball last year. Trea Turner was in A-ball too, although as a college draftee.

Admittedly Lewis is still pretty inexperienced, and I wouldn't be surprised if Tampa still had some uncertainty about his valuation that complicated the deal, even if the Twins were willing to include him. (Although I rather doubt they are.)

He played in 18 games at A-ball and will be returning there to start 2018. It will have no bearing on his trade value. 

 

Eloy Jimenez played 112 games at A-ball (with another 97 at short season ball previously) before being traded. Trea Turner played 46 games at A-ball but as you said he was a college draftee and people probably had a better valuation because of that.

 

Jimenez was considered an elite prospect and brought back a front of the rotation pitcher. Turner was probably considered a lesser prospect and brought back Wil Myers who had slumped mightily in 2014.

 

Those might be our best comps but neither is very good. I appreciate you tossing them out there though.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Getting Archer would be better than signing Darvish!

I would rather have Archer and his contract than Darvish and his contract with the Cubs, all things being equal...however all things are not equal and it will depend on what the Twins have to give up to get Archer. At what cost in Twins' players and prospects?

[jimmer]

I would rather have Archer and his contract than Darvish and his contract with the Cubs, all things being equal...however all things are not equal and it will depend on what the Twins have to give up to get Archer. At what cost in Twins' players and prospects?

yeah, I rephrased a couple posts after that one. Archer is the better pitcher and is younger but it does depend on who we would have to give up to decide which would actually be the better deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He played in 18 games at A-ball and will be returning there to start 2018. It will have no bearing on his trade value.

 

Eloy Jimenez played 112 games at A-ball (with another 97 at short season ball previously) before being traded. Trea Turner played 46 games at A-ball but as you said he was a college draftee and people probably had a better valuation because of that.

 

Jimenez was considered an elite prospect and brought back a front of the rotation pitcher. Turner was probably considered a lesser prospect and brought back Wil Myers who had slumped mightily in 2014.

 

Those might be our best comps but neither is very good. I appreciate you tossing them out there though.

Well, until after Turner, it wasn't even permitted to trade a draft pick with less than 1 year experience.

 

I did add the qualifier that your concern is likely a hold up, even if we were offering Lewis. It's quite possible that the Rays want Lewis but don't see him carrying the same value as other top prospects traded recently and are asking for more. Possibly why there has apparently been very little movement on this front. (Or we just didn't offer Lewis, which would likely be a non-starter of a proposal too.)

[Oxtung]

 

Well, until after Turner, it wasn't even permitted to trade a draft pick with less than 1 year experience.

I did add the qualifier that your concern is likely a hold up, even if we were offering Lewis. It's quite possible that the Rays want Lewis but don't see him carrying the same value as other top prospects traded recently and are asking for more. Possibly why there has apparently been very little movement on this front. (Or we just didn't offer Lewis, which would likely be a non-starter of a proposal too.)

 

Which brings us back to Kepler and if he has enough value to headline a possible trade. As we can see from the posts here his future projections are very divergent; everything from future All-Star to platoon outfielder. I guess it ultimately comes down to where the Rays fall on that spectrum. If they view him as a platoon player that signals an end to any possibility of a trade.

 

One thing I've never really understood about the Rays attraction to Kepler is they already have 3 controlled OF's. All are getting expensive, going through arbitration or under contract, but then again so is Kepler starting next year. So while he'll save them some money it won't be the millions of a pre-arb player. I guess I just don't really understand their interest.

[Doomtints]

Archer has been a below average pitcher (negative WAA) for the past two years.

 

If WAA isn't your fancy, feel free to use ERA+, WAR, or whatever, and you will see he is a #3 and not an ace. (And stop lumping in his WAR from three years ago to say he's been one of the best pitchers in the game three years running. That's ridiculous.)

Twins fans are overvaluing him and willing to make a substantial cut to our prospects to land him. I hope Twins management isn't thinking the same way. Right now, Archer is a #3 and he is right at the age where the decline usually begins. He may stay a #3, he may not, but he won't be a #1 or #2. 

 

Archer's strength is his cost, which is disgustingly cheap for a #3. If I were him I would consider filing a grievance with the union to force a new contract. He already fired his old manager. In any case, the question becomes ... are the Twins willing to gut the pipeline to save a buck and get a league average pitcher at best? God, I hope not.

If the Twins want to part ways with Sano (who is cheaper than Archer AND a better player), and do a 1:1 trade... sure. I wouldn't do that but I could understand it. Kepler might be the only 1:1 trade that makes sense when talking about player value. If the Twins are at all considering giving up multiple players for Archer, they are nuts.

[Oxtung]

 

Archer has been a below average pitcher (negative WAA) for the past two years.

 

If WAA isn't your fancy, feel free to use ERA+, WAR, or whatever. (And stop lumping in his WAR from three years ago to say he's been one of the best pitchers in the game.)

Twins fans are overvaluing him and willing to make a substantial cut to our prospects to land him. I hope Twins management isn't thinking the same way. Right now, Archer is a #3 and he is right at the age where the decline usually begins. He may stay a #3, he may not, but he won't be a #1 or #2. 

 

The real problem is that the Twins have very limited options to improve their front of the rotation. They have shown they won't sign a FA which leaves either trading for a pitcher, which Archer appears to be the only one on the market, or .... what? Wait to see if Graterol pans out 4 years from now?

 

How do you propose the Twins address this problem?

[gunnarthor]

 

The real problem is that the Twins have very limited options to improve their front of the rotation. They have shown they won't sign a FA which leaves either trading for a pitcher, which Archer appears to be the only one on the market, or .... what? Wait to see if Graterol pans out 4 years from now?

 

How do you propose the Twins address this problem?

Trade for Gausman or Degrom or Odorizzi or sign Cobb or bring up our young arms. I don't think you throw away your system for a guy like Archer. Some of us are really overrating him. He's a fly ball pitcher who plays in a great pitcher's park, has had some of the best OF defenses behind him. I agree with others, he's not an ace but his contract makes him worth more. Give a solid fair offer and move on. Which sounds like what the Twins did a couple weeks ago.

[jimmer]

Ok, I wont lump Archer's WAR over the last 3 or 4 years, cause consistency apparently doesnt matter. How about over the last two seasons? 5th in the AL in fWAR. How about just last year? Archers fWAR ranked 5th in the AL.

 

Sounds below average to me...

[Doomtints]

 

Ok, I wont lump Archer's WAR over the last 3 or 4 years, cause consistency apparently doesnt matter. How about over the last two seasons? 5th in the AL in fWAR. How about just last year? Archers fWAR ranked 5th in the AL.

Sounds below average to me...

 

fWAR doesn't match his other metrics. How can a supposed top-5 pitcher have an ERA+ of 100, an ERA over 4, and 31 losses in two years? Some of us are looking at numbers on a page and not thinking critically about what they are looking at.

bWAR matches his other metrics and calls him out as the #3 that he actually is.

We had these types of debates over Ricky Nolasco, everyone in Twins territory was convinced he was a steal, all based on bloated numbers on Fangraphs.

Give me this promise ... when Archer is less than exciting in the near future ... we all retire fWAR forever (or at the very least, we look at numbers with a critical eye).

[Oxtung]

 

Trade for Gausman or Degrom or Odorizzi or sign Cobb or bring up our young arms. I don't think you throw away your system for a guy like Archer. Some of us are really overrating him. He's a fly ball pitcher who plays in a great pitcher's park, has had some of the best OF defenses behind him. I agree with others, he's not an ace but his contract makes him worth more. Give a solid fair offer and move on. Which sounds like what the Twins did a couple weeks ago.

 

Gausmann, Odorizzi and Cobb are significantly inferior players to Archer. None have top of the rotation potential so that doesn't solve the problem.

 

deGrom would be even more expensive than Archer. I would be happy for the Twins to pursue deGrom but is there any rumor that he is even available?

[jimmer]

fWAR doesn't match his other metrics. How can a supposed top-5 pitcher have an ERA+ of 100, an ERA over 4, and 31 losses in two years? Some of us are looking at numbers on a page and not thinking critically about what they are looking at.

 

bWAR matches his other metrics and calls him out as the #3 that he actually is.

 

We had these types of debates over Ricky Nolasco, everyone in Twins territory was convinced he was a steal, all based on bloated numbers on Fangraphs.

 

Give me this promise ... when Archer is less than exciting in the near future ... we all retire fWAR forever (or at the very least, we look at numbers with a critical eye).

I dont consider looking at ERA and wins/losses at critically thinking about his performance.

[Oxtung]

 

fWAR doesn't match his other metrics. How can a supposed top-5 pitcher have an ERA+ of 100, an ERA over 4, and 31 losses in two years? Some of us are looking at numbers on a page and not thinking critically about what they are looking at.

bWAR matches his other metrics and calls him out as the #3 that he actually is.

We had these types of debates over Ricky Nolasco, everyone in Twins territory was convinced he was a steal, all based on bloated numbers on Fangraphs.

Give me this promise ... when Archer is less than exciting in the near future ... we all retire fWAR forever (or at the very least, we look at numbers with a critical eye).

 

Your whole argument is based on ERA. Problem is the year to year correlation for ERA to ERA is less than FIP, K%, xFIP, SIERA, etc...

[Doomtints]

 

I dont consider looking at ERA and wins/losses at critically thinking about his performance.

 

You missed the point. If you are looking at a data point and it doesn't match the rest of the data, you have to think about it critically. Literally no metric, including bWAR, matches fWAR for this player. How can you trust it?

 

Anyone who "buys high" on Archer has no business anywhere near baseball metrics, or any metrics, or any business for that matter.

[amjgt]

 

Ok, I wont lump Archer's WAR over the last 3 or 4 years, cause consistency apparently doesnt matter. How about over the last two seasons? 5th in the AL in fWAR. How about just last year? Archers fWAR ranked 5th in the AL.

Sounds below average to me...

 

or xFIP

 

I posted the numbers before but he was something like 8th, 5th, and 11th, in MLB the last 3 years

[Doomtints]

 

Your whole argument is based on ERA. 

 

It is? Perhaps if you delete 90% of what I wrote, sure.

[jimmer]

or xFIP

 

I posted the numbers before but he was something like 8th, 5th, and 11th, in MLB the last 3 years

making his AL rankings even better. And doing so while pitching in the AL East and pitching 200 or more innings

[Doomtints]

 

or xFIP

 

I posted the numbers before but he was something like 8th, 5th, and 11th, in MLB the last 3 years

 

fWAR uses FIP which makes your point circular.