Article: Why I Believe The Twins Are Going To Sign Yu Darvish

[GP830]

Thrylos’s tweet has sent my night into a tailspin.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think I'd want more concrete info than a tweet. No offense to Thrylos, but we haven't seen much in the way of accurate scoops from posters on this board of late. I think some caution would be wise.

 

I do hope he's right though.

[GP830]

I know. I’m just hangry for a signing! And our dear Thrylos isn’t exactly a previously unknown user here.

 

I’m hopeful.

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

Thrylos, can you tell us more about who your source is (works for the Twins, etc.?). How credible is this person? 

 

From Doogie...

 

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This was not reported. It was an unsubstantiated rumor.

what makes you say that?

[Twins33]

what makes you say that?

It came from one Pirates blog. No one else confirmed it. Then reports were made much later by the usual suspects that the Pirates were asking for Torres from the Yankees.

 

All three of those guys mentioned combined don't equal a Torres so it seems impossible that they were asking for the moon from one team and hardly anything from another.

[Brandon Warne]

 

what makes you say that?

 

The tweet that "reported" it was deleted. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

I for one would like to see Yu Darvish pitch for the Twins in the World Series, but that’s just me.

 

I would also like to see Yu Darvish and Chris Archer both in Twins’ uniforms this spring.

 

I can’t believe the snails pace of the free agency this winter. Most of the relievers are gone (kind of over market price), but almost no other player (SP or position) has signed. They have to sign, right? Will prices come down?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

This was not reported. It was an unsubstantiated rumor.

Brandon, Thanks for clarifying that. I guess I'm a modern day Will Rogers in that: "All I know I read on the internet". There are lots of posts and rumors and written thoughts and inaccurate information appearing on the internet.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It came from one Pirates blog. No one else confirmed it. Then reports were made much later by the usual suspects that the Pirates were asking for Torres from the Yankees.

All three of those guys mentioned combined don't equal a Torres so it seems impossible that they were asking for the moon from one team and hardly anything from another.

Holey Smokes. Gordon, Granite and Jay are "hardly anything"?

 

True, no one from the Twins side really followed up-- welcome to the world of lazy local Twins beat writers (not including Berardino, and Bollinger works for MLB). I would have liked to seen someone follow up. But the site that reported it is not a blog, it's a news site.

Edited January 10, 2018 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The tweet that "reported" it was deleted.

 

Here is the tweet that I am referring to:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/pbcbreakdown/status/940390540998250497

 

What did this second tweet say, the tweet that you saw?

[Jham]

Here's the conundrum as I see it: There can be only one champion at the end of the season. Although there are a number of ways to build a champion, there is no way to do it economically. You pay big time for elite talent. Either you pay in large contracts, blue chip prospects, or years of losing. Each strategy or balance of strategies has it's pluses and minuses. In addition, there are hidden opportunity costs: the price of doing nothing. Cheaper usually means riskier. Sometimes a new Maytag with a warranty is cheaper than buying a used washer which needs repair and replacement constantly. There can be a cost for going cheaper.

 

Cost per fwar should also escalate. This is because of the shape of the normalcy curve. Ie average ball players are by definition much more common than exceptional. An fwar might cost $7.5 mil. But that's an average. That's actually brought down by all the average players.

Elite talent should be worth even more because of scarcity. But top players don't make $50 mil a year, so they get more years.

[FunnyPenguin]

So basically either there is going to be a flurry of free agent signings now, or some of the top dogs of this class are going to miss out on a big deal.  I really wonder what is going to happen...

[FunnyPenguin]

I like what Buck Showalter said to Chris Davis when they were going back and forth and it was all about money, "How much is enough?" he said. "I asked Chris during the season, 'Chris, when you walk into a Target store, can you buy anything you want. So, how much is enough?'

[nicksaviking]

 

I like what Buck Showalter said to Chris Davis when they were going back and forth and it was all about money, "How much is enough?" he said. "I asked Chris during the season, 'Chris, when you walk into a Target store, can you buy anything you want. So, how much is enough?'

 

Right, but the fans and the players can ask the same question to the owners.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Holey Smokes. Gordon, Granite and Jay are "hardly anything"?

True, no one from the Twins side really followed up-- welcome to the world of lazy local Twins beat writers (not including Berardino, and Bollinger works for MLB). I would have liked to seen someone follow up. But the site that reported it is not a blog, it's a news site.

 

That's definitely a blog.

[Brandon Warne]

 

True, no one from the Twins side really followed up-- welcome to the world of lazy local Twins beat writers (not including Berardino, and Bollinger works for MLB). I would have liked to seen someone follow up. But the site that reported it is not a blog, it's a news site.

 

Literally nobody else had it. It was unsubstantiated. Just like this Thrylos "report"

[Brandon Warne]

 

Holey Smokes. Gordon, Granite and Jay are "hardly anything"?

 

Yes. Jay is a reliever, Granite is a fourth outfielder and Gordon seems less likely than not stick at short.

[kab21]

 

Decent analysis on Cobb here.   https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/12/12/16764788/alex-cobb-cubs-free-agent-starting-pitching-mlb-sign-contract-rumors-hot-stove

I saw another article about how he gave up on his best pitch which was the splitter changeup because he didn't have the same feel for it but it might come back the farther removed from surgery.   No sure thing but a shorter contract for less money with possibly upside if he gets that feel back.    His numbers were also in the toughest division, IMO.    He was my target from the get go and if they had gone after him the same way they went after Castro last year they might have gotten him for less money than what is now considered the market.   I would prefer 4 years to Cobb for less money per year vs 6 years to Darvish but time will tell.

That analysis basically shows the big risk of signing Cobb. He is rather mediocre (4.25 xFIP) without the changeup. Getting good value out of the signing is dependent on him finding his changeup. Now that isn't to say you don't sign him at all. I am on board with a <50M contract since he could reasonably pitch several years with a low 4's ERA. 70-80M for Cobb just doesn't seem like a good idea.

Darvish on the other hand already has the peripherals that support him being a 2/3 right now. Obviously there is a point where you have to walk away but this team needs a #2 or better starter and the options are severely limited. 

 

Overall I see targeting Cobb as playing it safe and playing for second place. I just don't see how the Twins put together a championship contending rotation with guys that are #3/4's. Darvish could hurt the team but he has the upside of a #1/2 imo.

[USAFChief]

This is more like a high school dating relationship...

 

Hey, can you tell Yu that someone likes him... just don't say who...

Do you like me?

 

___ yes

 

 

____ no

[Twins33]

Holey Smokes. Gordon, Granite and Jay are "hardly anything"?

True, no one from the Twins side really followed up-- welcome to the world of lazy local Twins beat writers (not including Berardino, and Bollinger works for MLB). I would have liked to seen someone follow up. But the site that reported it is not a blog, it's a news site.

I personally consider it hardly anything. And most posters said they would do it in a heartbeat which is a sign that you're not losing much.

 

Gordon, the easiest SS to give up in a trade. I like Javier, Lewis (if not an OF) and even Polanco better. Granite is a 4th OF, with a little chance of being slightly better than that. Jay is a RP. I'll take a SP over a RP most of the time, but not all the time. Depends on the two players we're talking. Here, I'd easily do it. So really that trade felt more like Gordon for Cole straight up. Other two are throw ins. Throw ins can turn into something but most of the time they don't.

 

New site or blog, they were still the only ones reporting it, which means it's probably not accurate. Especially because Torres > Gordon, Jay, Granite. Anyone can make up any trade scenario and tweet it.

 

I see Brandon has already covered all this for me.

Edited January 10, 2018 by Twins33

[laloesch]

I think something is about to happen.  Cole is about to be traded to the Astros.  That might be a good sign that the Twins are about to sign Darvish.  Prepare for the flurry of moves to follow!

[PseudoSABR]

 

Do you like me?

___ YES!

 

___ Yes, secretly

 

___ Probably

 

___ Maybe

____ no

fify

[GP830]

 

I think something is about to happen.  Cole is about to be traded to the Astros.  That might be a good sign that the Twins are about to sign Darvish.  Prepare for the flurry of moves to follow!

Saw that. This could be the lynch pin that begins the rest of the off season.

[Twins33]

I think something is about to happen.  Cole is about to be traded to the Astros.  That might be a good sign that the Twins are about to sign Darvish.  Prepare for the flurry of moves to follow!

I know you're probably being sarcastic, but if that does happen it seems like it would be down to the Cubs vs Twins for Darvish.

 

Obviously a tough opponent to go up against, but I like the possibility of a 50/50 chance unless a mystery team pops in. That's better than my thought all offseason which was only a 15% chance. I'm still not getting my hopes up though.

[laloesch]

 

I know you're probably being sarcastic, but if that does happen it seems like it would be down to the Cubs vs Twins for Darvish.

Obviously a tough opponent to go up against, but I like the possibility of a 50/50 chance unless a mystery team pops in. That's better than my thought all offseason which was only a 15% chance. I'm still not getting my hopes up though.

 

No sarcasm from me.  Don't be surprised if there's news about Arrietta and or Lynn in the next 24 hours as well.  

[Squirrel]

Do you like me?

___ yes

____ no

Reply hazy, try again.

[Twins33]

No sarcasm from me.  Don't be surprised if there's news about Arrietta and or Lynn in the next 24 hours as well.

 

Okay. That would definitely be nice since P&C report in about a month. Things need to get going already.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Do you like me?

___ yes


____ no

[old nurse]

Contracts this year are topping out at 3 years. Maybe there is not much movement because clubs are balking at giving away money at the back end of contracts. Analytics does have  some usefulness to the clubs. It is not like there are got to have players out there.  Very good players to help a team, but not anybody with a very long window left.