Article: Why I Believe The Twins Are Going To Sign Yu Darvish

[Riverbrian]

 

That is a mischaracterization. MLBTR said "Of all the teams in the mix, the Twins’ payroll outlook is by far the most open (zero dollars on the books beyond the 2019 season)":

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/yu-darvish-five-teams-yankees-rangers-cubs-twins-astros-mystery-team.html

The Cubs are not against any luxury tax, and absolutely have the financial flexibility to sign Darvish if they want to. As could the mystery team, if it wasn't the Dodgers. And while the Astros might prefer not to, hence kicking the tires on Cole, they too have the flexibility to do it if they want. (Rangers are likely in that group too -- any inflexibility would appear to be self-imposed, which frankly might apply to the Twins as well.)

 

Rumors... Just Rumors... But Rumors suggest the mystery team is the Dodgers. 

 

The Dodgers... I really believe the Dodgers are trying to reset that Tax penalty. Or else that Braves Trade makes less sense. So... The Dodgers would have to find a taker for Kemp and that isn't likely. OR trade Puig and another fairly costly player. There were rumors of Puig for Jackie Bradley awhile back so... maybe. But... I gotta believe not likely. 

 

The Yankees have been over the luxury tax line forever so they might just keep going full speed ahead and augment the Stanton addition but... this is the first year in a long time that they have a chance to reset the penalty and I think they will try. Signing Darvish will leave them very little room to address other needs like 3B and 2B. If they acquire Cole... they will be immediately out on Darvish. 

 

the Astros can make this deal easy but again... If they acquire Cole... They will be immediately out on Darvish. So Cole will take out one of those two. 

 

The Cubs could make the deal happen. They are kicking every starting pitching tire it seems but something isn't adding up. The rumored 3 year 42 million dollar offer to Cobb. Signing Morrow and letting Davis walk. Letting Arrieta walk. I have nothing to base it on but it seems like the Cubs are cutting some corners in preparation for next year's FA Group.  

 

The Rangers... They are the team that scares me. They have the need, the space and a comfort factor. I'm hoping the Darvish is just too rich for their blood. 

 

Of course... I have nothing to base this on... besides my little head and it's ability to read between very blurry lines. 

 

 

[GP830]

I still don't understand why Darvish would leak the idea of their being a Mystery Team. Weird right? 

I guess I also don't understand why he's going public with any of this?

[Nick Nelson]

 

I still don't understand why Darvish would leak the idea of their being a Mystery Team. Weird right? 

I guess I also don't understand why he's going public with any of this?

I mean, I guess if the five teams listed think there's another team in the mix they aren't aware of, it might increase their urgency or at least cause them to rethink what they think they know about his market. 

 

But yeah, it's strange that he's out here publicly squashing random rumors. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Rumors... Just Rumors... But Rumors suggest the mystery team is the Dodgers.

 

The Dodgers... I really believe the Dodgers are trying to reset that Tax penalty. Or else that Braves Trade makes less sense. So... The Dodgers would have to find a taker for Kemp and that isn't likely. OR trade Puig and another fairly costly player. There were rumors of Puig for Jackie Bradley awhile back so... maybe. But... I gotta believe not likely.

 

The Yankees have been over the luxury tax line forever so they might just keep going full speed ahead and augment the Stanton addition but... this is the first year in a long time that they have a chance to reset the penalty and I think they will try. Signing Darvish will leave them very little room to address other needs like 3B and 2B. If they acquire Cole... they will be immediately out on Darvish.

 

the Astros can make this deal easy but again... If they acquire Cole... They will be immediately out on Darvish. So Cole will take out one of those two.

 

The Cubs could make the deal happen. They are kicking every starting pitching tire it seems but something isn't adding up. The rumored 3 year 42 million dollar offer to Cobb. Signing Morrow and letting Davis walk. Letting Arrieta walk. I have nothing to base it on but it seems like the Cubs are cutting some corners in preparation for next year's FA Group.

 

The Rangers... They are the team that scares me. They have the need, the space and a comfort factor. I'm hoping the Darvish is just too rich for their blood.

 

Of course... I have nothing to base this on... besides my little head and it's ability to read between very blurry lines.

Why do you say that if a team trades for Cole, they are immediately out on Darvish?

You can never have too much pitching, and Cole is cost controlled. No reason, in my mind, that a team couldn't try to get both.

[Twins33]

I still don't understand why Darvish would leak the idea of their being a Mystery Team. Weird right? 

I guess I also don't understand why he's going public with any of this?

He could be serious, but I took it as a joke. I really haven't paid attention to Darvish on twitter before this offseason, but seeing some of the things he tweets in English it appears like he has a decent sense of humor.

[Squirrel]

He could be serious, but I took it as a joke. I really haven't paid attention to Darvish on twitter before this offseason, but seeing some of the things he tweets in English it appears like he has a decent sense of humor.

Yeah, I wondered if his retweet wasn’t just him being him and having a bit of fun.

[Riverbrian]

 

Why do you say that if a team trades for Cole, they are immediately out on Darvish?
You can never have too much pitching, and Cole is cost controlled. No reason, in my mind, that a team couldn't try to get both.

 

They could and I agree that you can never have too much pitching. However... it's a weird market this year and I think it is luxury cap related. 

 

With the Astros... It would be overkill. They got 5 big league arms right now in the rotation. '

 

Verlander

Kuechel

McCullers

Morton

Peacock

 

They could move Peacock to the bullpen to make room Cole or Darvish but it would be pretty strange to move any of the other 4 unless they go with a 6 man rotation but even if they go to a 6... They still have Musgrove and McHugh who are slated for the bullpen because of lack of space. I'm guessing the Astros are out if they trade for Cole out of plain ole' overkill. 

 

With the Yankees... I think it's all about resetting that luxury tax penalty and staying under the threshold so they can sensibly pursue Harper and Machado.

 

This competitive balance tax escalates with each year you are over. 

1st Year you are over - 20% Tax on the overage. 

2nd Year - 30% Tax on the Overage

3rd Year and Subsequent Years - 50% Tax on the Overage

 

In addition... there is a 12% Surtax if you are over the cap by 20 million and a 42.5% Surtax if you are over by 40 million. 

 

In Addition... Brand New for 2018... If you are 40 million over the threshold. Your Highest Draft Pick will be moved back 10 place. 

 

If you can get under threshold for a season... The Tax Rate is reset back to 20% for the next time you are over. 

 

The Yankees have been over the threshold for 15 Years straight.

 

Harper, Machado, Kershaw, Donaldson will be threshold busters.  If the Yankees and Dodgers don't reset... they could be paying an addition 300 million on a 10 year contract for Harper. By resetting... they can go all in 2019. 

 

The only reason I think the Yankees would entertain the idea of Darvish is because they have Jordan Montgomery in the 5th spot and they just got Stanton to start the fans buzzing.

 

Signing Darvish puts them over the Threshold unless they can get someone take Ellsbury's Contract.

 

Trading for Cole at 3.75M makes much more sense and if they get Cole... The Need to go over the cap with Darvish is less necessary especially when you consider that they still need a 2B and a 3B. 

 

Just a theory of mine... But I really think the Rangers and Twins are the legit options here.  

[Linus]

They could and I agree that you can never have too much pitching. However... it's a weird market this year and I think it is luxury cap related.

 

With the Astros... It would be overkill. They got 5 big league arms right now in the rotation. '

 

Verlander

Kuechel

McCullers

Morton

Peacock

 

They could move Peacock to the bullpen to make room Cole or Darvish but it would be pretty strange to move any of the other 4 unless they go with a 6 man rotation but even if they go to a 6... They still have Musgrove and McHugh who are slated for the bullpen because of lack of space. I'm guessing the Astros are out if they trade for Cole out of plain ole' overkill.

 

With the Yankees... I think it's all about resetting that luxury tax penalty and staying under the threshold so they can sensibly pursue Harper and Machado.

 

This competitive balance tax escalates with each year you are over.

1st Year you are over - 20% Tax on the overage.

2nd Year - 30% Tax on the Overage

3rd Year and Subsequent Years - 50% Tax on the Overage

 

In addition... there is a 12% Surtax if you are over the cap by 20 million and a 42.5% Surtax if you are over by 40 million.

 

In Addition... Brand New for 2018... If you are 40 million over the threshold. Your Highest Draft Pick will be moved back 10 place.

 

If you can get under threshold for a season... The Tax Rate is reset back to 20% for the next time you are over.

 

The Yankees have been over the threshold for 15 Years straight.

 

Harper, Machado, Kershaw, Donaldson will be threshold busters. If the Yankees and Dodgers don't reset... they could be paying an addition 300 million on a 10 year contract for Harper. By resetting... they can go all in 2019.

 

The only reason I think the Yankees would entertain the idea of Darvish is because they have Jordan Montgomery in the 5th spot and they just got Stanton to start the fans buzzing.

 

Signing Darvish puts them over the Threshold unless they can get someone take Ellsbury's Contract.

 

Trading for Cole at 3.75M makes much more sense and if they get Cole... The Need to go over the cap with Darvish is less necessary especially when you consider that they still need a 2B and a 3B.

 

Just a theory of mine... But I really think the Rangers and Twins are the legit options here.

Very good info RB. Thanks.

[Dan In Real Life]

Dammit Nick, just as I was coming to terms with the likelihood of missing out on Darvish, you come along and get my hopes up again. I don't know how much more of this I can take.

[Mr. Brooks]

They could and I agree that you can never have too much pitching. However... it's a weird market this year and I think it is luxury cap related.

 

With the Astros... It would be overkill. They got 5 big league arms right now in the rotation. '

 

Verlander

Kuechel

McCullers

Morton

Peacock

 

They could move Peacock to the bullpen to make room Cole or Darvish but it would be pretty strange to move any of the other 4 unless they go with a 6 man rotation but even if they go to a 6... They still have Musgrove and McHugh who are slated for the bullpen because of lack of space. I'm guessing the Astros are out if they trade for Cole out of plain ole' overkill.

 

With the Yankees... I think it's all about resetting that luxury tax penalty and staying under the threshold so they can sensibly pursue Harper and Machado.

 

This competitive balance tax escalates with each year you are over.

1st Year you are over - 20% Tax on the overage.

2nd Year - 30% Tax on the Overage

3rd Year and Subsequent Years - 50% Tax on the Overage

 

In addition... there is a 12% Surtax if you are over the cap by 20 million and a 42.5% Surtax if you are over by 40 million.

 

In Addition... Brand New for 2018... If you are 40 million over the threshold. Your Highest Draft Pick will be moved back 10 place.

 

If you can get under threshold for a season... The Tax Rate is reset back to 20% for the next time you are over.

 

The Yankees have been over the threshold for 15 Years straight.

 

Harper, Machado, Kershaw, Donaldson will be threshold busters. If the Yankees and Dodgers don't reset... they could be paying an addition 300 million on a 10 year contract for Harper. By resetting... they can go all in 2019.

 

The only reason I think the Yankees would entertain the idea of Darvish is because they have Jordan Montgomery in the 5th spot and they just got Stanton to start the fans buzzing.

 

Signing Darvish puts them over the Threshold unless they can get someone take Ellsbury's Contract.

 

Trading for Cole at 3.75M makes much more sense and if they get Cole... The Need to go over the cap with Darvish is less necessary especially when you consider that they still need a 2B and a 3B.

 

Just a theory of mine... But I really think the Rangers and Twins are the legit options here.

Well stated. Thanks.

[Riverbrian]

Taking this a step further to support my personal narrative. Trying to look at this logically with no inside information. 

 

1. Do the Casablanca thing. The teams listed as still in the running are a list of the "Usual Suspects". Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers and Astros. Houston might be somewhat new to Free Agency participants but they ain't the same Astros from years past. They can be FA Players now. Seeing the Astros on a list with the usual suspects shouldn't be that shocking. 

 

2. Do the Seseme Street thing. One of these teams is not like the other. That would be our Twins. The Twins have never been working at the top of the market. My assumption based on the Twins inclusion on this list with the usual suspects is this:: The Twins must have the top offer on the table right now. How else would the Twins get included on this list. Why would the Twins be on the list with the usual suspects if they are not doing something extraordinary to get themselves included. 

 

2A. If 2 is true... I think it is. It would also signify that Pohlad is willing to spend a little. 

 

3. The Pirates and Cole might be a reason for the slow developing FA Market. Cole at 3.75 Million this year and whatever he gets in Arbitration next year is going to be a lot less riskier than Darvish at 5 or 6 or 7 years. It stands to reason that if a team asking about Cole has a loaded farm system... the Pirates are going to ask for the top of the pile in return. For example... The Yankees may be willing to part with Frazier but the Pirates will ask for Glayber Torres and a stare down takes place waiting for the other to blink. The Astros may be willing to trade Derek Fisher but the Pirates will naturally demand Kyle Tucker and a stare down ensues. 

 

4. If the Astros and Yankees are waiting to get a deal done. Darvish becomes insurance in case they don't get Cole or Archer or whoever via trade. In order to keep Plan B alive. They must continue the conversation. 

 

5. Agents have been through this before. They are probably looking at the Twins top offer and advising their client to wait until the usual suspects really come to the table... instead of kinda coming to the table. 

 

6. They can't really come to the table unless they clear some money to make it happen. The Dodgers have to find someone to take half of Kemp's contract and they need to trade Puig. The Yankees need someone to take half of Ellsbury's deal or trade Robertson or Gardner which weakens them in other areas. 

 

7. The Cubs... How did they get outbid for Wade Davis? Settling for Morrow instead. Why are they letting Arrieta go? They know him... They don't really know Darvish. I'm guessing that they are trying to get salary under control. They are really acting like a team that would like to bring payroll down. The Cubs would probably like to be involved in the Harper, Donaldson, Machado, Blackmon thing next off season. 

 

8. Hope that the Astros land Cole to take them out. Leaving the Yankees and Dodgers with the Luxury Tax problem still causing problems for them. 

 

In my opinion... The Good News... I really think the Twins have the highest offer on the table. The Bad News... I think Darvish is waiting for someone to top it or come close to it. 

 

I gotta start thinking about the Vikings for a little bit. BEAT THOSE SAINTS!!! 

 

[Platoon]

Rumors... Just Rumors...

 

Of course... I have nothing to base this on... besides my little head and it's ability to read between very blurry lines.

 

So? In other words you operate just like everyone else on here, myself included. :)

[Riverbrian]

If any of the above is true. Its dangerous for the Twins to wait for one of the other teams to cave. Because if they do... The Twins will probably lose.

 

All the Twins eggs seem to be in the Darvish basket. They need a solid Plan B such as a trade for Grienke in place and then they need to give Darvish a quick deadline to take the offer or they complete the deal for Grienke. I can’t see an advantage for the Twins letting this play out.

 

The D-Backs just might take Hughes and a prospect for Grienke so they free up some money to sign JD Martinez. The money will probably come out even AAV with two less years for Grienke.

 

Who Knows... I might be

[Otto von Ballpark]

With the Astros... It would be overkill. They got 5 big league arms right now in the rotation. '

 

Verlander

Kuechel

McCullers

Morton

Peacock

 

They could move Peacock to the bullpen to make room Cole or Darvish but it would be pretty strange to move any of the other 4 unless they go with a 6 man rotation but even if they go to a 6... They still have Musgrove and McHugh who are slated for the bullpen because of lack of space. I'm guessing the Astros are out if they trade for Cole out of plain ole' overkill.

FWIW, Keuchel is a FA after 2018, and is also a Boras client who has thus far been unwilling to sign an extension.

 

Morton is also FA after 2018, and Verlander and McHugh after 2019. And Cole would only be controlled through 2019 too.

 

I could see interest in Darvish plus dealing some of the shorter term assets from the resulting surplus.

[Danchat]

 

If any of the above is true. Its dangerous for the Twins to wait for one of the other teams to cave. Because if they do... The Twins will probably lose.

All the Twins eggs seem to be in the Darvish basket. They need a solid Plan B such as a trade for Grienke in place and then they need to give Darvish a quick deadline to take the offer or they complete the deal for Grienke. I can’t see an advantage for the Twins letting this play out.

The D-Backs just might take Hughes and a prospect for Grienke so they free up some money to sign JD Martinez. The money will probably come out even AAV with two less years for Grienke.

Who Knows... I might be

I'm sure they have a plan B, as they'd had months to plan for Darvish not signing. The problem is that plan A is taking so darn long [for most teams, anyway].

[Squirrel]

I mean, I guess if the five teams listed think there's another team in the mix they aren't aware of, it might increase their urgency or at least cause them to rethink what they think they know about his market.

 

But yeah, it's strange that he's out here publicly squashing random rumors.

 

Or creating his own with this response to a random Yankee fan telling him to come be a Yankee.

 

https://twitter.com/faridyu/status/951954097174966272?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Em5%7Ctwgr%5Eemail%7Ctwcon%5E7046%7Ctwterm%5E0

 

Does that mean he’s narrowing the list and the Yankees are off it?

[Riverbrian]

 

Or creating his own with this response to a random Yankee fan telling him to come be a Yankee.

https://twitter.com/faridyu/status/951954097174966272?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Em5%7Ctwgr%5Eemail%7Ctwcon%5E7046%7Ctwterm%5E0

Does that mean he’s narrowing the list and the Yankees are off it?

 

My guess... I think it means the Yankees have spoken to his agent in broad strokes. 

 

 

They will stay engaged as much as they can.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/cashman-yankees-chances-landing-darvish-article-1.3752216

 

They have publicly announced they will be under the cap. They have to move money to make it work.

[Riverbrian]

 

FWIW, Keuchel is a FA after 2018, and is also a Boras client who has thus far been unwilling to sign an extension.

Morton is also FA after 2018, and Verlander and McHugh after 2019. And Cole would only be controlled through 2019 too.

I could see interest in Darvish plus dealing some of the shorter term assets from the resulting surplus.

 

Quite Possible. 

 

They are being rumored on Darvish and Cole for a reason. 

 

I still can't see them going with both Darvish and Cole. They would certainly have to deal some of that surplus. 

 

I also believe that the Astros are not desperate and don't have to over pay for anyone.

 

If they don't sign any more pitching. They are in pretty good shape right now. It'll be hard for the Pirates to squeeze them... It'll be hard for Darvish's Agent to wring extra dollars out of them.  

[mikecgrimes]

It's possible the Twins have already made a sure thing offer once the market price for pitchers is established, but until someone signs it isn't yet 100% clear.  It sure feels like this is about to happen with the only thing standing in the way of people's optimism being lack of past history with the Twins making big free agent moves.

[Don Walcott]

Cole to the Astros. So they are out.

 

Time to get this deal done!!

[Otwins]

What about the reported 7 year 160 Million offer from the Yankees? True or False

Seem like about what it would take to sign him. I thought it would be around $150 million 

[Twins33]

What about the reported 7 year 160 Million offer from the Yankees? True or False

Seem like about what it would take to sign him. I thought it would be around $150 million

 

Yu said on twitter that they did offer something but not those numbers.

 

https://twitter.com/faridyu/status/951954097174966272

Edited January 14, 2018 by Twins33

[PseudoSABR]

Chin Music agrees that the Twins are the best fit.

[DocBauer]

Is it just me, or does it feel like we may be the best offer and option at this point? We can even front load the contract to make it more palatable down the road.

 

Brian, not only witty but you may actually be on to something here.

 

Would seem the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros are out. I think you may be on to something with the Twins offer. Betting they are sitting at 5 years and around $25M per, maybe with an opt out in there as well. I think there may be a very good reason neither party has met face to face yet.

[nytwinsfan]

Of all the teams left, by far most worried about the Cubs. Dodgers and Yankees don't scare me.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Of all the teams left, by far most worried about the Cubs. Dodgers and Yankees don't scare me.

Arrieta should give them a home-town discount.

[Riverbrian]

 

What about the reported 7 year 160 Million offer from the Yankees? True or False

Seem like about what it would take to sign him. I thought it would be around $150 million 

 

The rumors will typically get crazy in the void of actual news.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's important to keep in mind that the list of teams "in" on Darvish isn't anything official or limiting. As those teams drop out or if his market truly doesn't develop, Darvish will expand his considerations. It's doubtful he will be stuck deciding between just 2 teams if his market only develops to 5/125 or whatever.

[killertwinfan]

Hmmmm, sounds like you are describing leverage and a backup plan for Darvish. I would love to be optimistic, but I can't be on this one.  Nobody seems to really know what is going on. The only substantive statement I have heard is that he passed on the Yankees $160M offer. Do you think the Twins will make that offer or beat it?  I don't and I am not sure I want them to.  The last couple years of that deal are likely to be ugly. 

[mikecgrimes]

I really thought the dominoes would start to fall with the Cole trade.  One thing to worry about if this lingers into the early portion of spring training is another team suffering an injury and getting desperate.  At this point if the offers aren't in the ballpark of what was expected whats the incentive for settling when that will always be an option.