Article: Supplementing the Twins: Lance Lynn

[beckmt]

 

Lynn would be one of my top choices since they likely can't afford a true Ace in the free agent market. He's definitely a guy that would bump everyone else down a spot in the rotation, which is how I gauge if you're improving.

 

While it wouldn't be a true 1-2-3-4-5 rotation, or a 1-1-x-x-x that the best teams seam to have, I would probably peg it as a 2(Santana)-3(Berrios)-3(Lynn)-4(Gibson)-5(everyone else) going into next year instead of the 2-4-5-5-5 it has been (at best) at the start of the past few seasons.

 

Even more improvement/consistency from Berrios and continued bounce back from Tommy John for Lynn and you might end up with something even better than that, and will compete very well with this offense.

 

My pipe dream is still Ohtani. Who knows how much international money the Twins have left? (haha)

And why can't you afford a true ace.  They are only going to cost you 10 - 12 million a year more than Lynn, be younger, and more likely to lead to team to the world series.  You are assuming Lynn is a #2, I believe more like a #3 and will be a #4 - #5 at the end of the contract.  Twins have plenty coming off the books in the next couple of years, let's go big.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Offering a 5 yr contract to a 31 yr old pitcher seems pretty risky. I'd rather offer a couple of high end prospects for a young, up and coming Ace.

 

Who is trading a controllable ace for 2 minor league players?

[gunnarthor]

 

Who is trading a controllable ace for 2 minor league players?

The A's? 

[drjim]

The A's?

It does seem the Twins missed out on a market inefficiency by not trading with Beane the last couple if years. There's still time.

[old nurse]

 

The A's? 

Kapreillian and Maeo are minor league players, Fowler being on the 60 day dl is a major league player. Gio Gonzales netted quite a bit

[notoriousgod71]

I love this world where no FA is good enough to help this team but the pitching has been awful for ten years.

 

There should be no reason for our goal to be to have Gibson or Mejia in the rotation next year.

 

That leaves us a declining Erv and an improving Berrios and an unusable bullpen.

 

 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

I refuse to accept that idea that we cannot afford an ace, and I'd argue that if you go into FA, you do it right and get the best one out there.

 

As for Lynne, I'd be very curious how the K/BB rates changed over the season given that he missed all of 2016. If they improved as the season went on, I'd be a bit more comfortable here.

 

I'd also caveat this as he's an NL only guy, which don't always transition well.

First half k/bb 22.0/9.0

Second half 17.0/11.3

 

His first half number were close but worse than his career norms. His second half and season overall were significantly worse than career norms entering 2017. Not everyone comes all the way back from Tommy John. The Twins need to do their homework here. His reasonable 2017 ERA is of little value projecting 2018-2021. His poor 2017 FIP and xFIP are more telling of the future than his ERA.

[h2oface]

 

Isn't Mauerer a pitcher with the Royals? :-)

 

Whoops. Nope..... Maurer is...... Brandon Maurer. No back editing allowed. The good humored "gotcha", gotcha!

;-)

 

[dbminn]

 

selling high on Gibson might get you a low A medium ceiling guy with a crap load of question marks. I don't see teams paying much for him given his play the last two years. He's had a few hot months before as well, and that's the only thing that made him finish with similar numbers to his season last year (when he was hurt)...

 

I don't know what he'd bring in return. I only said he's at relatively high value compared to his low point, which was worth nothing. 

Edited October 13, 2017 by dbminn

[Thrylos]

This team has to stop looking for number 3 type of pitchers.  About time to do it right.  No more half a$$

Darvish.  Otani. 

 

That's about it as far as FA SPs this team should be after.

[Blake]

 

Any player the Twins sign to be a starter is going to have a few warts and still cost a lot of money.  Lynn has not averaged 6IP/start for a while. If you are going for second tier, Cobb would be better

Second on Cobb.

[Guest]

In 2013, Phil Hughes was 27 and put up 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in Yankee Stadium. In 2017, Lance Lynn was 30 and put up 7.4 K/9 and 3.75 BB/9 in Busch Stadium. Their FIPs and xFIPs were similar, although Hughes was a little better. Hughes was healthy and Lynn is coming off TJ.

 

Although Hughes was known for suffering from the home run ball at Yankee Stadium, he actually gave up only 0.18 HR/9 more that year than Lynn gave up this year. Lynn had a BABIP this year that was 80 points better than Hughes's, which is the main reason for the difference in their counting stats. In the year of the strikeout, Lynn actually had fewer per nine than Hughes and his control was much worse.

 

Hughes had one good year, but has now turned into dead money. Therefore, the eagerness people have to sign Lynn for a contract that is more than Hughes's, at three years older and already the victim of a major injury, surprises me. I say "Nay."

[drjim]

In 2013, Phil Hughes was 27 and put up 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in Yankee Stadium. In 2017, Lance Lynn was 30 and put up 7.4 K/9 and 3.75 BB/9 in Busch Stadium. Their FIPs and xFIPs were similar, although Hughes was a little better. Hughes was healthy and Lynn is coming off TJ.

 

Although Hughes was known for suffering from the home run ball at Yankee Stadium, he actually gave up only 0.18 HR/9 more that year than Lynn gave up this year. Lynn had a BABIP this year that was 80 points better than Hughes's, which is the main reason for the difference in their counting stats. In the year of the strikeout, Lynn actually had fewer per nine than Hughes and his control was much worse.

 

Hughes had one good year, but has now turned into dead money. Therefore, the eagerness people have to sign Lynn for a contract that is more than Hughes's, at three years older and already the victim of a major injury, surprises me. I say "Nay."

Almost every free agent contract is going to be *bad* and you can pick apart every option that is out there. But, alas, you need a rotation.

[Guest]

Almost every free agent contract is going to be *bad* and you can pick apart every option that is out there. But, alas, you need a rotation.

Of course, but adding Lance Lynn will not meaningfully improve the rotation. He will either be mediocre or terrible. At least with Hughes, he was much younger and almost the whole league thought going to Target Field - and getting away from New York - would help him. What's the improvement path for Lynn? Hope is not a strategy.

[drjim]

Of course, but adding Lance Lynn will not meaningfully improve the rotation. He will either be mediocre or terrible. At least with Hughes, he was much younger and almost the whole league thought going to Target Field - and getting away from New York - would help him. What's the improvement path for Lynn? Hope is not a strategy.

Improved health is the obvious one. If he gets back to the 3 years prior to TJ, that's a very solid 3.

[Guest]

Improved health is the obvious one. If he gets back to the 3 years prior to TJ, that's a very solid 3.

Returning to health and reverting to your skills of four years earlier (without Yadier Molina as your catcher) is a lot more iffy and hope-based than is getting out of Yankee Stadium and away from New York.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Returning to health and reverting to your skills of four years earlier (without Yadier Molina as your catcher) is a lot more iffy and hope-based than is getting out of Yankee Stadium and away from New York.

 

We have Castro, the greatest pitch framer of them all. If he doesn't turn Lynn into Nolan Ryan then society will crumble.

[drjim]

Returning to health and reverting to your skills of four years earlier (without Yadier Molina as your catcher) is a lot more iffy and hope-based than is getting out of Yankee Stadium and away from New York.

Maybe. I do think if you have an established level, you get hurt, and then return to said level the second year after returning from the injury - that is an achievable position. It's basically what Alex Cobb did (albeit at a slightly lesser performance than Lynn).

 

There is certainly risk, and it is also possible, probably likely he won't hold up over the length of the contract, but that is why he is a free agent and why he would potentially be in the Twins price range this offseason.

 

You can pick apart every available free agent arm, but the Twins need one.

[Mill1634]

God no. This has Nolasco written all over it. If we want a legit SP, trade for one; there is a reason they are a premium. 

[nicksaviking]

Sure they could. They'd probably win several.

 

It's funny. Anytime a Twins pitcher doesn't do well in the playoffs it's because he doesn't strike out enough guys (even though our soft tossing guys did pretty well) and when other teams strike out pitchers get blown out, it's not a problem.

 

Twins need good pitchers. Good pitchers come in many different forms. Sure, the best pitchers tend to be strike out pitchers but that doesn't mean only strike out pitchers are good. And strike out pitchers are expensive. I'm not saying we should ignore that, of course. But if we could get a Dallas Kuechel or two, that'd be just fine.

There were plenty of us saying that Santana had no business taking the mound in Yankee stadium for the WC game well before it took place.

 

It's a different game, the Yankees and the Astros are going to get their HR, it's pretty unavoidable, so you have to take the free unproductive outs that they're willing to sacrifice to get their bombs. Maybe there was a day when a rotation full of Santana's could hold their own and win a playoff series if they were lucky, but that day is not today. I don't know how anyone could watch baseball this year and not see that. The top eight teams by K% all made the playoffs and the other four AL playoff teams were all top five. It's an arms race and the Twins are way behind. They need high upside, not high floor.

[The Wise One]

Refresh my memory with the last 5 baseball champions. 2012 Giants as a team not so great with the strikeouts, 2015 Royals likewise. One pitcher does not pitch in all of the games to be able to strike out everybody. See Santana, Johan.

[SarasotaBill]

 

This team has to stop looking for number 3 type of pitchers.  About time to do it right.  No more half a$$

Darvish.  Otani. 

 

That's about it as far as FA SPs this team should be after.

1. Sign Darvish

2. Tell Otani that he can have the same schedule as Japan. Pitch on Sunday and DH/OF the rest of the week.

3. Sell Otani on great defense (lower ERA) and young team that will only get better.

4. Sell Otani on MidWest charm and lower cost of living.

5. Sign Otani.

[nicksaviking]

Refresh my memory with the last 5 baseball champions. 2012 Giants as a team not so great with the strikeouts, 2015 Royals likewise. One pitcher does not pitch in all of the games to be able to strike out everybody. See Santana, Johan.

Homerun totals have increased by 20% since 2015 and it sure didn't look like a one year fad.

[beckmt]

 

Homerun totals have increased by 20% since 2015 and it sure didn't look like a one year fad.

So did the strikeouts.  Only two explanations for the power increase,  juiced baseballs, undetectable steroids.  

[drjim]

So did the strikeouts. Only two explanations for the power increase, juiced baseballs, undetectable steroids.

And better players and different approaches. I imagine those two combined with juiced balls is most of it.

 

I'm skeptical there is a new steroid being used by the majority of players, maybe a handful.

[nicksaviking]

So did the strikeouts.  Only two explanations for the power increase,  juiced baseballs, undetectable steroids.

 

I think it's just the fact that almost everyone (except Mauer and Kepler?) have changed their swing plane. So many guys have made a concerted effort to lift the ball.

 

Batting averages are down and strikeouts are up meaning the batters are willing to give up outs for the increased power. Just like making sure to get the free out on a sac bunt, the other team has to take advantage.

[Darius]

Considering what's available, Lynn would be OK.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

We can't spend money on the devil that we know (Dozier) because he is old, but we should spend more on the devil we don't know even though he is old.

[USAFChief]

We can't spend money on the devil that we know (Dozier) because he is old, but we should spend more on the devil we don't know even though he is old.

Available replacements play a role.

[Thrylos]

 

We can't spend money on the devil that we know (Dozier) because he is old, but we should spend more on the devil we don't know even though he is old.

 

Can the 'devil we know' pitch?