2017 MLB draft thread

[prouster]

 

Of course.  But drafting based on holes in the overall organization, is a great strategy, since "Best" player available is pretty objective.  

 

I'd claim that figuring out who the best overall player is, is much harder than figuring out who the best LHSP or who the best C might be, because at a point you are starting to compare hitters with pitchers and that comparison is never valid.  So what happens, is that teams that are going for the unicorn "BPA", ending up failing.

 

 

 

Right. This is actually what the second part of my comment says. I'm not sure why you chose not to include it.

And of course BPA is subjective. "Best" is a value judgement. It's up to the people making the decision to form some kind of standard and try to build consensus from there. Dismiss the concept all you want, but I'd wager most front offices get excited about specific players with specific skill sets, which they think of as the "best" they can get.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

And the final benefit is that McKay is so polished that he would likely be ready to break into the majors within a couple years, whereas Greene could easily be a 4-5 year project (Greene is still only 17).

 

That's not the final benefit   If McKay develops as a great hitting pitcher, he could be a prime trading chip towards landing the Twins a young ace from a NL team.  Think trading him plus to the Mets for Thor or to the Dodgers for Kershaw. This is the type of thinking that has been mission impossible for this Front Office unfortunately...

[Vanimal46]

I think we can all agree that, of the four major sports, baseball's draft is by far the biggest crap shoot.

 

I like the fact that the Twins have 3 of the top (I don't remember the exact number) 38? draft picks. One star and one everyday major leaguer would be a "great" outcome.

 

So, my question is: of these three picks, how many pitchers? 2? 3?

 

And might they go 1 SP, 1 RP and 1 position player (not necessarily in that order)?

 

3 SP?

 

Thoughts

Agreed that baseball is the biggest crapshoot when it comes to the draft. In basketball and football, there's no minor leagues, and fans know within a year or 2 if the player is a bust. In baseball it's a slow burn that takes 6-7 years before finally cutting bait.

 

As far as positions to draft, ideally I'd like 2 SP and 1 position player.. 3B is weak throughout the organization, so that'd be a nice one to target.

[markos]

 

I think we can all agree that, of the four major sports, baseball's draft is by far the biggest crap shoot.

 

I like the fact that the Twins have 3 of the top (I don't remember the exact number) 38? draft picks.  One star and one everyday major leaguer would be a "great" outcome.

 

So, my question is: of these three picks, how many pitchers? 2? 3?

 

And might they go 1 SP, 1 RP and 1 position player (not necessarily in that order)?

 

3 SP?

 

Thoughts

They have #1, #35 and #37. I'm not particularly concerned about the positional breakdown. What I want to see is that they go after high-upside players, so no college relievers in the first 5 rounds. Depending on how the first pick plays out, they should have bonus pool money to play with in later picks.

 

If forced to pick, there seems to be pretty good luck with selecting HS pitchers with picks in the 30s and 40s. From 2008-2012 there were 18 picks between #30 and #45 used on HS pitchers. Here is a list of the successes (to varying degrees):
Jake Odorizzi
Tyler Skaggs
Taijuan Walker
Noah Syndergaard
Aaron Sanchez
Henry Owens
Michael Fulmer
Lance McCullers
Jose Berrios

 

That seems like pretty good luck - arguably better than the HS pitchers selected with picks #1-#16. So given the option, I'd say draft the best available HS pitchers at #35 and #37. At lot will depend on how the bonus demands of the first picks. It would be nice to try to buy a kid out of a college commitment who slips into those mid-rounds. And from the standpoint of acquiring future trade capital, it would be a good idea to come away with 3-4 high upside HS arms - few things are more valuable in trades.

 

After that, I think the "flawed college infielder" is an under-valued target for the 3rd-5th rounds, as seemingly a lot of those guys end up exceeding their hit or field projections.

[nytwinsfan]

 

If they don't work out, they are not right, now, are they?

They might seemed right at the point they were made, but proved not to be... 

That's why the better front office people who are making more right decisions than wrong are making their teams win, unlike the ones who are making more wrong than right.

 

Nobody bats 1.000 even in front offices, but there are some that bat .750 and some (like the Twins') that are batting .250...

This is a silly semantic distinction. By you're definition of "right," if someone is playing say dice or poker or any other game of chance picks the higher odds and loses, they made the "wrong" call. Ex post, yes, obviously they made the wrong call. But ex ante, which I would think most of us would agree with is the better perspective to evaluate odds from, they were clearly right.  Indeed, everything you say after that confirms you basically agree. What you care about is getting it right more often than your opponent, and  better evaluating the odds/risk. That's obviously the point gunnarthor was trying to make by his quote as well, which is that "some" decisions that turn out bad were actually right at the beginning. Obviously he wasn't saying that because "some" decisions that turn out badly were actually correct, you can justify being wrong all the time, or even more often than your opponent.

[jsteve96]

 

That's not the final benefit   If McKay develops as a great hitting pitcher, he could be a prime trading chip towards landing the Twins a young ace from a NL team.  Think trading him plus to the Mets for Thor or to the Dodgers for Kershaw. This is the type of thinking that has been mission impossible for this Front Office unfortunately...

"trade for Thor or Kershaw" lol

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is a silly semantic distinction. By you're definition of "right," if someone is playing say dice or poker or any other game of chance picks the higher odds and loses, they made the "wrong" call. Ex post, yes, obviously they made the wrong call. But ex ante, which I would think most of us would agree with is the better perspective to evaluate odds from, they were clearly right.  Indeed, everything you say after that confirms you basically agree. What you care about is getting it right more often than your opponent, and  better evaluating the odds/risk. That's obviously the point gunnarthor was trying to make by his quote as well, which is that "some" decisions that turn out bad were actually right at the beginning. Obviously he wasn't saying that because "some" decisions that turn out badly were actually correct, you can justify being wrong all the time, or even more often than your opponent.

 

I always use the drunk driving example. Just because you made it home once, doesn't mean you made the right decision, and should replicate your process/thinking. 

[caninatl04]

From Baseball America:

 

According to industry sources, the Twins are considering nine players for the No. 1 pick, starting with Greene and McKay. The other seven: college righthanders J.B. Bukauskas (North Carolina), Alex Faedo (Florida) and Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt), Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall, Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith and prep outfielders Austin Beck (Lexington, N.C.) and Royce Lewis (San Juan Capistrano, Calif.).
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-top-100-mlb-draft-prospects/#2FvdrRWKH7FtRLjz.99

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

On his FB live today, KLAW said Greene was the best prospect in the draft (right now).

[twinsfanstreif]

 

From Baseball America:

 

According to industry sources, the Twins are considering nine players for the No. 1 pick, starting with Greene and McKay. The other seven: college righthanders J.B. Bukauskas (North Carolina), Alex Faedo (Florida) and Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt), Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall, Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith and prep outfielders Austin Beck (Lexington, N.C.) and Royce Lewis (San Juan Capistrano, Calif.).
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-top-100-mlb-draft-prospects/#2FvdrRWKH7FtRLjz.99

so Lewis is now an OF? 

[drjim]

Really interesting thought from KLaw on Hunter Greene from his chat:

 

Tevin: If you're the Twins, how do you pass on Hunter Greene? 102 at 17 y/o? Lord. They need pitching, but he gives you two potential players in one to bank on. Also, Falvey known for developing pitchers in CLE ? great match. Kid seems like he ?gets it? too.

 

Keith Law: I think you take him, you send him out this summer as a shortstop, with the plan to pitch him in 2018. Maybe he does something either way as a hitter in the GCL to change your mind or reinforce it.
 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Really interesting thought from KLaw on Hunter Greene from his chat:

 

Tevin: If you're the Twins, how do you pass on Hunter Greene? 102 at 17 y/o? Lord. They need pitching, but he gives you two potential players in one to bank on. Also, Falvey known for developing pitchers in CLE ? great match. Kid seems like he ?gets it? too.

 

Keith Law: I think you take him, you send him out this summer as a shortstop, with the plan to pitch him in 2018. Maybe he does something either way as a hitter in the GCL to change your mind or reinforce it.
 

 

that is interesting. I can see the logic, actually. Get him some experience in pro ball, while decreasing the likelihood he hurts himself.

 

I'd just have him pitch, he has the raw stuff to be IT as a pitcher...but I can see the logic.

[drjim]

that is interesting. I can see the logic, actually. Get him some experience in pro ball, while decreasing the likelihood he hurts himself.

 

I'd just have him pitch, he has the raw stuff to be IT as a pitcher...but I can see the logic.

I'd have him pitch too and not mess with being a SS. But it would depend on how many innings they'd want him to throw this summer.

[markos]

 

I'd have him pitch too and not mess with being a SS. But it would depend on how many innings they'd want him to throw this summer.

As a point of reference, Kohl Stewart only pitched 20 innings after being drafted, but if I recall correctly he was shut down for a little while for a foot injury. Gonsalves pitched 28. On the other side, Kirilloff ended up with 232 PAs after the draft.

 

I would probably have him pitch, but I see the argument the other way.

[Mike Sixel]

that's three straight rational responses on the internet. I'm scared.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'd have him pitch too and not mess with being a SS. But it would depend on how many innings they'd want him to throw this summer.

 

It does sound like Greene's HS coach is doing right by him. He's not going deep into games and looking at his numbers the only reason for that is because he has a coach who cares about his future.

 

Looks like Greene threw 55 IP as a junior and is only at 21 thus far as a senior.

 

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/hunter-greene/uMJm9ZrFEeOzMAAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm

 

And only ten games left in the regular season.

 

http://www.maxpreps.com/high-schools/notre-dame-(so)-knights-(sherman-oaks,ca)/baseball/schedule.htm

 

Looks like the Twins might have a good number of innings to play around with if they'd like to. Ha, and assuming he's the pick.

[Willihammer]

Updated The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats:

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Buskakis looking like the top pick to me, if things stay as is......

[Willihammer]

One guy I haven't heard much about is Mississippi St. OF Brent Rooker. Redshirt junior. R/R, 6'4 220. The stats are off the charts. .513 ISO!

[Willihammer]

Recent article on Rooker. I was surprised to find an exit velocity reading on one of his HRs. Is there trackman in college parks after all?

 

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/sports/college/mississippi-state/2017/04/06/subtle-swing-changes-help-brent-rookers-monster-season/100113594/

[nicksaviking]

 

Recent article on Rooker. I was surprised to find an exit velocity reading on one of his HRs. Is there trackman in college parks after all?

 

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/sports/college/mississippi-state/2017/04/06/subtle-swing-changes-help-brent-rookers-monster-season/100113594/

 

That's a good interview. Rooker certainly sounds like he has a handle on swing mechanics which is a plus. Lot's of guys can talk about their swing, but he sounded like he might enjoy working on his swing as much as he likes playing baseball. Sounds like a good player to have.

[nicksaviking]

I don't see Rooker anywhere on BA's top 100 list but that article and the Fangraphs projections have me extremely interested. I wonder how much his draft stock jumps the rest of the year. What kind of spot is he looking at?

 

The Twins also drafted him last year in the 38th round, so they should be familiar.

 

Is it weird that 30 minutes of reading on this guy will now leave me devastated if the Twins don't somehow end up with him? I didn't even know who he was before lunch!

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Buskakis looking like the top pick to me, if things stay as is....

 

If he were 6'3" I don't think it would be a question.

[d-mac]

 

Buskakis looking like the top pick to me, if things stay as is......

 

Faedo was my guy preseason. But with the drop in velo (huge red flag) I'm on board with Bukaukis. His height is a non issue for me. The problem with Greene for me has always been that by the time that he's up Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, etc are all likely to be free agents. Not to mention a 17 year old throwing 100 screams arm injuries to me. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Faedo was my guy preseason. But with the drop in velo (huge red flag) I'm on board with Bukaukis. His height is a non issue for me. The problem with Greene for me has always been that by the time that he's up Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, etc are all likely to be free agents. Not to mention a 17 year old throwing 100 screams arm injuries to me. 

 

So you don't want guys with plus velocity?

 

I've grown very tired of the alternative.

[Thrylos]

 

Buskakis looking like the top pick to me, if things stay as is......

 

Faedo was my guy preseason. But with the drop in velo (huge red flag) I'm on board with Bukaukis. His height is a non issue for me. The problem with Greene for me has always been that by the time that he's up Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, etc are all likely to be free agents. Not to mention a 17 year old throwing 100 screams arm injuries to me. 

 

 

This will be the new Pierzynski of Mientkiewicz if the Twins sing him.

 

Bukauskas

(think book-HOUSE-cash with softer ending and no H in house)

 

No wonder the kid goes by JB, even though his middle name is Allen

[Mike Sixel]

I literally don't care how he spells his name when typing on a message board.....especially if they haven't drafted him yet.

 

but fair, i should have looked out of respect or something.

[drjim]

I'm skeptical they'll take a RHP that short 1-1.

[drjim]

This will be the new Pierzynski of Mientkiewicz if the Twins sing him.

 

Bukauskas

(think book-HOUSE-cash with softer ending and no H in house)

 

No wonder the kid goes by JB, even though his middle name is Allen

I do like the unintentional comedy in your first sentence.

[d-mac]

 

I don't see Rooker anywhere on BA's top 100 list but that article and the Fangraphs projections have me extremely interested. I wonder how much his draft stock jumps the rest of the year. What kind of spot is he looking at?

 

The Twins also drafted him last year in the 38th round, so they should be familiar.

 

Is it weird that 30 minutes of reading on this guy will now leave me devastated if the Twins don't somehow end up with him? I didn't even know who he was before lunch!

 

Man if the Twins could grab him with their second pick! But I bet some smart team will take him in the first round and offer him discount money.