2017 MLB draft thread

[twinsfanstreif]

Who's the relief pitcher in this draft that we could make the first ever relief pitcher drafted 1-1?

Buskakas comes to mind

[nytwinsfan]

Apparently Hunter Greene pitched a great game last night, http://www.latimes.com/visuals/video/92944200-132.html

 

Some video at the link above.

 

7K, 0BB, 3H, 1R (on a Sac)

 

Read elsewhere that he hit 81 pitches and hit 98 mph a couple of times in the 7th inning.

 

[twinsfanstreif]

https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/848061257706074112

Translation is the Twins really like Greene but don't wanna screw it up......

[Willihammer]

Write up on Bukauskas from thegoodphight:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2017/4/1/15133824/2017-phillies-draft-preview-j-b-bukauskas-rhp

 

Bukauskas strikes me as the most certain arm in the draft. Fastball-slider are both legit, changeup is third offering (you do see a couple swings and misses on the changeup at 1:45 of the first vid). 

 

Thru 7 starts he is:

47 IP, 0.96 ERA, 24 H (3 HR), 11 BB, 70 K / 170 BF (41.2%).

[AZTwin]

Translation is the Twins really like Greene but don't wanna screw it up......

If they drafted Greene and he busted, I don't think I could blame them too much. If they passed on Greene for a higher floor but lower upside guy and Greene flourished, I'd be pissed. I think there's more risk passing on Greene than drafting him. The college guys aren't blowing me away like this kid is

[diehardtwinsfan]

Great game for Bukauskas last night, striking out 10 in 7 innings. 

 

McKay went 2/4 with a HR.  On the mound he went 6 strong, only 2ks, 2BB, and 6 hits. 

 

Poche went 7, striking out 6, 2BB, 2R, and 8 hits... This might be a guy worth snagging later. He's probably a first rounder, perhaps we can offer enough for him to slide to 35. 

 

Faedo went 7.2 striking out 7, 1 BB, and 6 hits. 3 runs plated (only 1 earned). 

 

My fun to follow Parker Dunshee at WF went 7 innings striking out 9. 1 run and 1 BB.

[twinsfanstreif]

If they drafted Greene and he busted, I don't think I could blame them too much. If they passed on Greene for a higher floor but lower upside guy and Greene flourished, I'd be pissed. I think there's more risk passing on Greene than drafting him. The college guys aren't blowing me away like this kid is

Your logic is sound but this is the Twins we're talking about, you can never count out us over thinking the situation and passing on Greene because for some weird reason

[mlhouse]

 

Your logic is sound but this is the Twins we're talking about, you can never count out us over thinking the situation and passing on Greene because for some weird reason

 

 

I think I take Greene, but then the Twins will have him move one step at a time through the minors, he will walk a couple in his debut, and they will bounce him back and forth until he is 25 years old before he is really given a shot, all the while they bring in worthless 34 year old replacement level players to pitch.

[gunnarthor]

 

Write up on Bukauskas from thegoodphight:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2017/4/1/15133824/2017-phillies-draft-preview-j-b-bukauskas-rhp

 

Bukauskas strikes me as the most certain arm in the draft. Fastball-slider are both legit, changeup is third offering (you do see a couple swings and misses on the changeup at 1:45 of the first vid). 

 

Thru 7 starts he is:

47 IP, 0.96 ERA, 24 H (3 HR), 11 BB, 70 K / 170 BF (41.2%).

With him the concerns are height (Berrios 2.0) and mechanics.

 

Honestly, if they got him to sign for underslot, it's not a crazy pick but you'll read a lot about how the Twins drafted another future reliever. 

[Vanimal46]

If they drafted Greene and he busted, I don't think I could blame them too much. If they passed on Greene for a higher floor but lower upside guy and Greene flourished, I'd be pissed. I think there's more risk passing on Greene than drafting him. The college guys aren't blowing me away like this kid is

This is where I stand as well. I've been reading articles of the college pitchers posted on this thread, and none have convinced me to change my mind on Greene.

[mudcat14]

I can't help but think that even if Greene were to have a catastrophic arm injury, he could still have value as a potential position player/DH.  It might be the smartest way to hedge our bets with the #1 overall selection.

 

[Willihammer]

 

With him the concerns are height (Berrios 2.0) and mechanics.

 

Honestly, if they got him to sign for underslot, it's not a crazy pick but you'll read a lot about how the Twins drafted another future reliever. 

Right, that's his floor though (assuming no injury) but his ceiling is still a #1/2. A guy like Greene has a similar ceiling but lower floor due to, for example, a second pitch that's still just a projection at this point. 

 

Height will concern some scouts. We could go back and forth about the evidence but bottom line is it likely would drive down his price. Whereas Greene would command slot if not overslot. Could be a value opportunity there.

 

The other thing about Bukauskas is he skipped a year in high school so he's almost a full year young than other juniors like McKay. His arm doesn't have that much mileage on it. Perhaps the Twins could iron out his mechanics in the minors.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If they drafted Greene and he busted, I don't think I could blame them too much. If they passed on Greene for a higher floor but lower upside guy and Greene flourished, I'd be pissed. I think there's more risk passing on Greene than drafting him. The college guys aren't blowing me away like this kid is

 

This is the same logic used take Stewart for the record, and a lot of people are very down on that pick.  He had without question the highest ceiling of the guys left. 

 

I'm not against Greene, and I'm fine with that at 1 overall, but I highly doubt people will give Greene a pass if he busts.

[AZTwin]

This is the same logic used take Stewart for the record, and a lot of people are very down on that pick. He had without question the highest ceiling of the guys left.

 

I'm not against Greene, and I'm fine with that at 1 overall, but I highly doubt people will give Greene a pass if he busts.

I actually don't mind the Stewart pick. He still has promise though he likely won't hit his ceiling. You could maybe make the argument for Clint Frazier but I'm not overly impressed with him. Other than that there's not much more you could do. It was a weak draft for where we were. It's too bad kris Bryant went 2 overall

[gunnarthor]

 

This is the same logic used take Stewart for the record, and a lot of people are very down on that pick.  He had without question the highest ceiling of the guys left. 

 

I'm not against Greene, and I'm fine with that at 1 overall, but I highly doubt people will give Greene a pass if he busts.

Yeah, I agree.  Stewart was the right pick and there's a lot of anger over it.  If they miss on the #1 pick, the fans won't forgive.

[Mike Sixel]

Fans shouldn't be in the business of forgiving, they are fans, not rational business partners. IMO.

 

The Stewart pick was probably the right pick, given what everyone knew at the time. Still hopeful, though the lack of Ks concerns me.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Fans shouldn't be in the business of forgiving, they are fans, not rational business partners. IMO.

 

The Stewart pick was probably the right pick, given what everyone knew at the time. Still hopeful, though the lack of Ks concerns me.

 

Well, I'm a fan, and I'm rational

 

I want the org to make smart decisions and I'm not going to fault them when they do that and it fails (such as Meyer).  I will fault them when they make dumb decisions, and there have been plenty.  No need to rehash.

[gunnarthor]

 

Well, I'm a fan, and I'm rational

 

I want the org to make smart decisions and I'm not going to fault them when they do that and it fails (such as Meyer).  I will fault them when they make dumb decisions, and there have been plenty.  No need to rehash.

Agreed. I forget who but someone (Epstein, maybe?) said something like there are a lot of tough decisions in baseball that are right and still don't work out.

[Mike Sixel]

Absolutely, you can make good decisions that turn out badly, and bad decisions that turn out well. 

[Mike Sixel]

mike sixel
12:33 Is McKay a two way player after drafted, a pitcher, or a hitter, do you think?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:33 He's a pitcher for me but teams are on him as a bat, too.
Haven't heard of anyone planning to do both.

[Mike Sixel]

Paul
12:38 Jeren Kendall was being talked about 1-1 coming into the year. Is that still the case, or is he more 4-6 range now?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:39 Still up there for me but probably not 1-1 with questions about the swing and miss.

[jsteve96]

all this Mckay crap should end. No ones pitching and hitting. If hes not a good enough pitcher for 1 they wont get him. Greene or Bukauskas I think have to be the options. Kendall looks good too but the K's might be an issue.

[caninatl04]

 

DRAFT PITCHING!  If you get a really good 1st round kid that's not a pitcher, TRADE HIM FOR A PITCHER!

Might I suggest de-caf?

[caninatl04]

I think we can all agree that, of the four major sports, baseball's draft is by far the biggest crap shoot.

 

I like the fact that the Twins have 3 of the top (I don't remember the exact number) 38? draft picks.  One star and one everyday major leaguer would be a "great" outcome.

 

So, my question is: of these three picks, how many pitchers? 2? 3?

 

And might they go 1 SP, 1 RP and 1 position player (not necessarily in that order)?

 

3 SP?

 

Thoughts

[Thrylos]

 

 

I'm not against Greene, and I'm fine with that at 1 overall, but I highly doubt people will give Falvey and Levine a pass if he busts.

 

FTFY

 

[Thrylos]

 

Agreed. I forget who but someone (Epstein, maybe?) said something like there are a lot of tough decisions in baseball that are right and still don't work out.

 

If they don't work out, they are not right, now, are they?

They might seemed right at the point they were made, but proved not to be... 

That's why the better front office people who are making more right decisions than wrong are making their teams win, unlike the ones who are making more wrong than right.

 

Nobody bats 1.000 even in front offices, but there are some that bat .750 and some (like the Twins') that are batting .250...

[prouster]

 

I think we can all agree that, of the four major sports, baseball's draft is by far the biggest crap shoot.

 

I like the fact that the Twins have 3 of the top (I don't remember the exact number) 38? draft picks.  One star and one everyday major leaguer would be a "great" outcome.

 

So, my question is: of these three picks, how many pitchers? 2? 3?

 

And might they go 1 SP, 1 RP and 1 position player (not necessarily in that order)?

 

3 SP?

 

Thoughts

 

BPA. As you say, it's definitely a crap shoot. Drafting in response to holes on the 25-man roster is . . . not a good strategy. Things simply change too quickly.

 

That said, it's probably not a bad idea to go after certain positions later on in order to fill in thin areas across the entire MiLB system.

[Thrylos]

 

I think we can all agree that, of the four major sports, baseball's draft is by far the biggest crap shoot.

 

Nope.  Because it has the most games.  You can get luckier (or unlikier) in 17 games that in 162.  Baseball is a marathon and unless someone is planning for the whole season and is willing to make changes as soon as things are not panning out, they will fail.  Period.

[Thrylos]

 

BPA. As you say, it's definitely a crap shoot. Drafting in response to holes on the 25-man roster is . . . not a good strategy. Things simply change too quickly.

 

Of course.  But drafting based on holes in the overall organization, is a great strategy, since "Best" player available is pretty objective.  

 

I'd claim that figuring out who the best overall player is, is much harder than figuring out who the best LHSP or who the best C might be, because at a point you are starting to compare hitters with pitchers and that comparison is never valid.  So what happens, is that teams that are going for the unicorn "BPA", ending up failing.

 

And a big part of the problem is that "best" now vs. "best" at their peak, might be totally 2 different things.  And if "best" player available now is a unicorn, "best" player at their peak is a flying rainbow kitten unicorn.

 

However, the organizational deficiencies are much more concrete, and help people get focused on scouting hard 15 vs 500 players...

 

http://images-cdn.9gag.com/images/thumbnail-facebook/13706967_1418881236.7876_u3amYT_n.jpg

[Willihammer]

 

all this Mckay crap should end. No ones pitching and hitting. If hes not a good enough pitcher for 1 they wont get him. Greene or Bukauskas I think have to be the options. Kendall looks good too but the K's might be an issue.

I'm still not convinced a two-way arrangement couldn't work, but for sake of argument let's say that's true. What the Twins really cannot afford to do with their #1 pick is bust again. They need to be able to pencil this player into a starting job for 7-8 years and count on 3-4 WAR production at least. McKay, IMO, is the best bet.

His k/9 is virtually identical to Bukauskas'. Top 5 in the country. J.B. has the better velo and the better second pitch and so he has the higher ceiling, but McKay might be a better bet to reach his (lower) ceiling of a 3, his mechanics are less suspect.

But even still, sometimes pitchers' arms just break. If that were to happen, then you're still looking at a guy whose hit tool has been described as "elite." As a batter he has 13 K's in 105 PAs (12.0%). That kind of bat to ball skill bodes well for translating power from aluminum to wood. For that reason alone I'd take McKay over someone like Kendall (who has dropped into the next tier of players anyway). I haven't read anything about ceiling or floor as a batter, and it would be harder to reach 3+ WAR as a first baseman with just good contact (cough Mauer) but again, the OBP would still have value (he's #8 in the country in OBP).

 

And of course, if he somehow develops both as a pitcher and a hitter, then you have a value-maximizing scenario where the ceiling is pushed to maybe 6+ WAR combined, PLUS roster flexibility which would be huge as well.

 

And the final benefit is that McKay is so polished that he would likely be ready to break into the majors within a couple years, whereas Greene could easily be a 4-5 year project (Greene is still only 17).