2017 MLB draft thread

[gil4]

 

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20170317/notre-dame-baseball-sweeps-loyola-behind-hunter-greene-josh-perlmutter

 

"Greene was efficient on the mound, striking out six and allowing two hits in four shutout innings. He only threw 52 pitches and hit 100 mph with a fastball in the third."

 

A couple of things:

 

1. From my very limited vantage, Greene is starting to separate himself as the best available draft prospect. There's still a lot of time and several intriguing names, but none have been as consistent for as long with the tools Greene has shown.

 

2. Kudos to the coach for pulling his best player after 52 pitches. Not enough youth coaches are so careful with their talented players.

 

NFHS has a rule change this year that directs state associations to develop "a pitching restriction policy based on the number of pitches thrown" rather than the previous requirement to limit the innings pitched.  Pulling him after 52 pitches may have been a strategic move, or a required move if he had a recent prior appearance. 

 

I don't know what his state rule is, or even what state he is from.  I don't even know what our state rule is, and I umpire.  (The only role for the umpire is to recommend they contact the state association if they believe someone has violated the pitch count rule, so I don't have to know, but I wish they had told us because now I'm curious.  Plus I have a son who pitches, so I'd like to know for that.)  I just know that now there is some restriction on the number of pitches he can throw that didn't exist before this year.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Do you have some sort of proof of this or are you just talking?

 

The Padres can only do so much and if the Twins say, "well, I don't want to pay such-and-such amount for the top pick of the draft" then they're the idiots. 

 

If a team likes a player so much that they are willing to devalue their later slots to get the guy this has always been an option. Whether BA is full of baloney or not doesn't really matter since it's completely possible and has been forever.

 

The Padres have 11.2M in draft pool money and the Twins have 13.4M. If the Padres are willing to commit 70-75-80% of their pool to one guy then the Twins have to decide if it's worth it to match the Padres offer. I'd hold my nose and do it, but I wouldn't be happy.

 

And frankly, it's also possible the Padres expect the Twins to draft him but WANT the Twins to pick him. Leaking this kind of rhetoric might force the Twins to give up full slot value, that would minimize the Twins leverage later in the draft and help the Padres (and all the other clubs).

 

If my team wasn't on the wrong end of this kind of gamesmanship I might even be impressed by this.

[markos]

 

Honestly, I don't think he could pull that off. Preller would be making a huge enemy of whoever Greene's adviser is and no one in the drafting business would trust Preller again. The long-term mess isn't worth it.

 

Remember a few years ago the Astros tried to screw over Aiken and his adviser nearly got the Astros to forfeit a draft pick and they ended up settling with another draftee (Jacob Nix) for over a million dollars.

Yeah, you're probably right. I'm not sure why anyone would trust Preller now. He has already decided some ethically questionable decisions were worth the long-term mess (like withholding medical info prior to trades). But you bring up a good point that the league could definitely step in if they think he is out-of-bounds with the draft behavior. 

[zenser]

Earlier I thought I had read that Bukauskas was going to be destined for the bullpen.  Anyone know if that has changed?  I like that he is having a tremendous spring and his numbers are impressive.

[Intramural Legend]

Frankly, it doesn't matter what the Padres want to do.  The Twins own the first pick and if said pick wants to turn down $6-8M for the chance at $1-2 more the following year, that person is probably making a mistake...

[Mr. Brooks]

Frankly, it doesn't matter what the Padres want to do. The Twins own the first pick and if said pick wants to turn down $6-8M for the chance at $1-2 more the following year, that person is probably making a mistake...

Not only that, but the kid would either have to sit out a year, or commit to 3 years of college.

[mazeville]

 

If a team likes a player so much that they are willing to devalue their later slots to get the guy this has always been an option. Whether BA is full of baloney or not doesn't really matter since it's completely possible and has been forever.

 

The Padres have 11.2M in draft pool money and the Twins have 13.4M. If the Padres are willing to commit 70-75-80% of their pool to one guy then the Twins have to decide if it's worth it to match the Padres offer. I'd hold my nose and do it, but I wouldn't be happy.

 

And frankly, it's also possible the Padres expect the Twins to draft him but WANT the Twins to pick him. Leaking this kind of rhetoric might force the Twins to give up full slot value, that would minimize the Twins leverage later in the draft and help the Padres (and all the other clubs).

 

If my team wasn't on the wrong end of this kind of gamesmanship I might even be impressed by this.

 

Right. But it's all a moot point if the Twins draft him. Greene can go to college, but given that he is already the top pick, would he really not sign? Especially when you're only talking about, what, $500,000 or $1 million?

 

This isn't free agency. San Diego can't "outbid" the Twins because San Diego doesn't have its choice of players. San Diego can if it wants tell Greene he's worth $8 million. But would Greene and his agent really risk him getting injured or something else over what is likely to be a relatively small amount? 

 

The fact is, the new CBO limits teams' abilities to blow players out of the water with their offers. I think people are getting frightened over nothing. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Well, I'd start by asking who Greene's rep is.  That will tell you a lot about how reasonable the kid will be.

 

Problem is that Greene is absorbing all the risk if he doesn't sign.  That's pretty dangerous, and everyone knows what happened to Aiken after that fiasco. 

 

I like Greene, but I've got to think the Twins would prefer a college arm here, and if they took that under slot, they can potentially pick up one or two more falling first round type college pitchers at over slot deals at 35 and 37.  That isn't a bad thing at all in my opinion, and if they aren't convinced Greene is the BPA, well, then that's probably what I do. 

[Willihammer]

Yeah I'd be a little gunshy about a high school arm. Could be some recency bias there. 

Kinda hoping a prep bat separates himself Mauer-style.

[gunnarthor]

Keep in mind that guys like Greene (and Aiken) can get insurance on their arms. It won't pay out 8m but it'll give a lot to offset the possibility that they get hurt before they are drafted again.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Keep in mind that guys like Greene (and Aiken) can get insurance on their arms. It won't pay out 8m but it'll give a lot to offset the possibility that they get hurt before they are drafted again.

 

Yes, but it is hardly free and it doesn't insure them if they slide in 3 years due to not being that good in college.  The college might pick it up if they want them bad enough, but there's still an enormous amount of risk.

 

At the end of the day, I don't think Preller can do much.  I also think the Twins are much more likely to focus on a college arm anyways and use their pool allotment as a means of acquiring several first round talents in the first 2-3 rounds.

[Han Joelo]

First off, I know very little about this stuff.  I did look back at the 2006 draft recently.  Five college pitchers (and Evan Longoria) were selected ahead of Clayton Kershaw.  The best of that lot is Andrew Miller, but not until he was on his third organization.

 

Not saying Greene is Kershaw.  I am hoping Levine is as good at scouting pitchers as I hope. (?)

 

FWIW, the scouting director that drafted Kershaw is with the Padres now.

[sthpstm]

Earlier I thought I had read that Bukauskas was going to be destined for the bullpen.  Anyone know if that has changed?  I like that he is having a tremendous spring and his numbers are impressive.

Baseball America quoted a scout who says his command and delivery are better, but not to what extent.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mock-major-league-baseball-draft-first-ten-picks/#PbvLkdoBrKcmrqj7.97

[Willihammer]

McKay in four starts hasn't allowed a single XBH.

 

25 IP, 13H (all singles), 6BB, 41K against 94 BF (43.6%).

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Baseball America released their updated Top 100 with some great notes on the Twins thought process. 

 

"According to industry sources, the Twins are considering nine players for the No. 1 pick, starting with Greene and McKay. The other seven: college righthanders J.B. Bukauskas (North Carolina), Alex Faedo (Florida) and Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt), Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall, Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith and prep outfielders Austin Beck (Lexington, N.C.) and Royce Lewis (San Juan Capistrano, Calif.)."

 

"Beyond the top two, the order of the players is harder to solve than a Leslie Knope scavenger hunt. “No one has separated themselves,” is a common refrain from scouts from area supervisors to crosscheckers to special assistants on up to scouting directors."

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Baseball America released their updated Top 100 with some great notes on the Twins thought process. 

 

"According to industry sources, the Twins are considering nine players for the No. 1 pick, starting with Greene and McKay. The other seven: college righthanders J.B. Bukauskas (North Carolina), Alex Faedo (Florida) and Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt), Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall, Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith and prep outfielders Austin Beck (Lexington, N.C.) and Royce Lewis (San Juan Capistrano, Calif.)."

 

"Beyond the top two, the order of the players is harder to solve than a Leslie Knope scavenger hunt. “No one has separated themselves,” is a common refrain from scouts from area supervisors to crosscheckers to special assistants on up to scouting directors."

I recognized most of those names but Smith. Apparently he's Virginia's big first baseman.   I'm a bit angry and Faedo for not being super awesome.  

 

Jeremy, do we have a sense of whether the Twins are looking at McKay as a hitter or as a pitcher?

[gunnarthor]

From the BA article, we should probably pin this because it'll come up later.

 

"The Top 100 Draft Prospects ranking is fluid and constantly changing throughout the spring. Baseball America aims to capture industry consensus with this list. Roughly three months from the draft, it’s safe to say no consensus has been reached beyond the top two players in the draft class, and there’s a lot to sort out between now and when we expand the list to 200 and eventually the BA500 at the end of May."

 

So, on draft day when the Twins take BA #44 at their 35 pick, it probably wasn't a reach!  

[gunnarthor]

JJ Schwartz has fallen off of BA's top 100.

 

"J.J. Schwarz, 1b/dh, Florida (NR): Schwarz ranked No. 15 on our preseason Top 100 College prospects, but that was with the assumption he’d catch some as a junior. Instead, he’s a righthanded-hitting first baseman/DH with a fairly grooved swing who’s not hitting. All of Schwarz’s value is in the bat, and he’s hitting .226 with two homers."

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-top-100-draft-prospects/#MxrhFhcV5YGtrlrZ.99

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I recognized most of those names but Smith. Apparently he's Virginia's big first baseman.   I'm a bit angry and Faedo for not being super awesome.  

 

Jeremy, do we have a sense of whether the Twins are looking at McKay as a hitter or as a pitcher?

 

Their area scout changed, but they preferred him on the mound before. And for as well as he's pitched so far this year, I'd assume nothing has changed.

[Mike Sixel]

 

JJ Schwartz has fallen off of BA's top 100.

 

"J.J. Schwarz, 1b/dh, Florida (NR): Schwarz ranked No. 15 on our preseason Top 100 College prospects, but that was with the assumption he’d catch some as a junior. Instead, he’s a righthanded-hitting first baseman/DH with a fairly grooved swing who’s not hitting. All of Schwarz’s value is in the bat, and he’s hitting .226 with two homers."

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-top-100-draft-prospects/#MxrhFhcV5YGtrlrZ.99

 

Wow. What a fall. He was a possible 1:1 at one point ....

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Wow. What a fall. He was a possible 1:1 at one point ....

 

I guess that's what happens when you go from a "catcher who can hit" to someone that can't catch or hit.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I guess that's what happens when you go from a "catcher who can hit" to someone that can't catch or hit.

 

In 1 year, he lost millions of dollars. Maybe a lifetime of earnings. All because he was not draft eligible because he went to college. Think about that for a minute.....had he been eligible after his freshman year...

[gunnarthor]

He can make it up yet though.  He gets hot and starts smacking around SEC pitching for 8 weeks and he's a late first rounder again.

[nicksaviking]

 

Baseball America released their updated Top 100 with some great notes on the Twins thought process. 

 

"According to industry sources, the Twins are considering nine players for the No. 1 pick, starting with Greene and McKay. The other seven: college righthanders J.B. Bukauskas (North Carolina), Alex Faedo (Florida) and Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt), Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall, Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith and prep outfielders Austin Beck (Lexington, N.C.) and Royce Lewis (San Juan Capistrano, Calif.)."

 

"Beyond the top two, the order of the players is harder to solve than a Leslie Knope scavenger hunt. “No one has separated themselves,” is a common refrain from scouts from area supervisors to crosscheckers to special assistants on up to scouting directors."

 

Sounds like the Twins are onto the top two. So that's good news for those of us who want them to pick the best player and not just the best player who will sign for an unspecified discount.

 

If they like McKay as a bat, I still don't want him at 1:1 though.

[Willihammer]

McKay's swing reminds me of Morneau's. Quiet with a muted front foot, good bat-to-ball. Not much of an uppercut. Powerful looking body, not fast or athletic, 1B/DH for sure.

 

90-93 on the mound, plus changeup. Dunno about a breaking pitch. Delivery looks a bit Lester-like to me.

Edit: Above average curveball, change is third pitch.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/3/10/14878052/from-the-crows-nest-louisville-lhp-1b-brendan-mckay

[Mike Sixel]

 

He can make it up yet though.  He gets hot and starts smacking around SEC pitching for 8 weeks and he's a late first rounder again.

 

Late first rounder will never be in the 5-8MM range....he'd have to get a 2-4MM bonus, then be in the majors for 4+ years. That's a lot of money gone.

[drjim]

 

Late first rounder will never be in the 5-8MM range....he'd have to get a 2-4MM bonus, then be in the majors for 4+ years. That's a lot of money gone.

 

Is it certain he would have been drafted that high at that point? Or was it speculation based on expected improvement over the next couple of season?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is it certain he would have been drafted that high at that point? Or was it speculation based on expected improvement over the next couple of season?

 

Certain? Of course not, hence 1:1 consideration...

 

He as a legit 1:1 consideration after his freshman year. If had been draft eligible, I'd guess he goes top 10 easy. Maybe top 5. Slid enough last year, to still be 15th coming into this year, meaning with a good year he's top 10. It was about what he actually did, as a catcher. He hit the bleep out of the ball. Something happened...

[nicksaviking]

 

McKay's swing reminds me of Morneau's. Quiet with a muted front foot, good bat-to-ball. Not much of an uppercut. Powerful looking body, not fast or athletic, 1B/DH for sure.

90-93 on the mound, plus changeup. Dunno about a breaking pitch. Delivery looks a bit Lester-like to me.
Edit: Above average curveball, change is third pitch.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/3/10/14878052/from-the-crows-nest-louisville-lhp-1b-brendan-McKay

 

I loved Morneau, but his swing couldn't cut it at Target Field and he always looked so frustrated when he thought he hit a bomb that would have previously gone yard at the Metrodome but it ended up coming up shy at the new field. I have no idea about the physics of it, but it seems those line drive blasts just get knocked down before they can get to the fence. It seems like the deep shots that get elevated right away are the ones that clear the wall.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

McKay's swing reminds me of Morneau's. Quiet with a muted front foot, good bat-to-ball. Not much of an uppercut. Powerful looking body, not fast or athletic, 1B/DH for sure.

90-93 on the mound, plus changeup. Dunno about a breaking pitch. Delivery looks a bit Lester-like to me.
Edit: Above average curveball, change is third pitch.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/3/10/14878052/from-the-crows-nest-louisville-lhp-1b-brendan-mckay

 

I got a "bigger Ted Lilly" comp on McKay. A very "safe" pick who could be a "lock" starter.

 

And that was before this season.