2017 MLB draft thread

[AZTwin]

I'm not watching his games, clearly, and commenting just from how I'd approach it as a below average former HS player. I'd go up to the plate with the plan of not swinging the bat at all. Let's be honest, only by pure luck would we be able to catch up to a 100 MPH fastball. I'd do everything in my power to make him hit the strike zone so I could get on via a walk, or god forbid, getting hit by that pitch.

Haha. God forbid is right. I could not imagine getting hit by a pitch going 100 mph as a 15-17 year old.

[twinsfanstreif]

For me right now it is:

 

1. Greene

2-3. McKay/Bukauskas

4. R. Lewis

This is what it's shaping up to be at the moment. Faedo and Wright have fallen considerably. I would maybe move Lewis up a bit to #2 or #3, as dominant as McKay and Bukauskas have been here are my reservations on them: With McKay he has looked really good on both sides but it looks like his bat is what is more coveted and a college 1B has never been taken #1 overall. While that's not a reason to not take him he has to prove to be one heck of a hitter for that to happen and I just don't see him in the Kris Bryant spectrum yet, we'll have to see as the season moves along. As for Bukauskas he seems to profile more as a reliever to me, he has a relatively violent delivery and a small frame that might not play up in a rotation (he seems to use max effort on every pitch). The last guy I can remember it working for was Lincecum and even with him he had a few spectacular years and then it caught up with him, not saying I'm 100% against the move but it would be risky for sure.

 

All of that being said it looks like Greene is separating himself from the pack at the moment

[Mike Sixel]

Philip
12:54 Has Bukauskas passed Faedo for you? And is Beck a legitimate top 5 draft consideration

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:55 So far, yes. And yes too as well.

[drjim]

BA mock top 10 was posted yesterday. Greene it is. There is plenty of season left, but barring injury hard to see how this changes.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mock-major-league-baseball-draft-first-ten-picks/#xOiJqxAvip3Xhozh.97

[Vanimal46]

 

BA mock top 10 was posted yesterday. Greene it is. There is plenty of season left, but barring injury hard to see how this changes.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mock-major-league-baseball-draft-first-ten-picks/#xOiJqxAvip3Xhozh.97

 

Yeah based on everything I've read so far, without watching the games, there hasn't been anything to change my decision of Greene 1st overall. 

[gunnarthor]

If McKay can continue to hit into Bryant territory but is locked in as a future 1B only type ... man, that'd be a tough choice.

[drjim]

 

If McKay can continue to hit into Bryant territory but is locked in as a future 1B only type ... man, that'd be a tough choice.

 

Really, really hard to take a 1b only type, no matter how great the bat, at 1.1, especially with other representative options.

[nicksaviking]

 

BA mock top 10 was posted yesterday. Greene it is. There is plenty of season left, but barring injury hard to see how this changes.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mock-major-league-baseball-draft-first-ten-picks/#xOiJqxAvip3Xhozh.97

 

From the write up:

 

"Everyone expects the Padres and GM A.J. Preller to try to do what it takes to push Greene down to them at No. 3,"

 

Hmmm, I hadn't heard that one before. So the Padres are going to do everything they can to make the Twins pay top dollar? The team that once upon a time picked hometown kid Matt Bush over Justin Verlander because they wouldn't meet his asking price?

 

Yeah that sounds like the Twins luck. They get the 1st overall pick and not only does the league lower the slot values at the top of the draft which hurts the Twins ability to load up on the best talent but now teams below them are maneuvering to sabotage their picks.

[gunnarthor]

 

Really, really hard to take a 1b only type, no matter how great the bat, at 1.1, especially with other representative options.

True. But a HS RH pitcher is also pretty risky, especially if you're turning down a Bryant-type bat.  Greene's probably better than all of these guys but all of these HS arms were in the debate about 1/1 the last few years - Aiken, Tate, Groome, Pint, Kolek, Stewart.  

[nicksaviking]

 

Really, really hard to take a 1b only type, no matter how great the bat, at 1.1, especially with other representative options.

 

And I'm not a fan of lefties at Target Field. You need monster power to be a consistent HR threat from that side of the plate. McKay sounds like he has power but probably not tape-measure type power which is what it takes.

 

And if McKay is truly a good hitter first and a power threat second, that probably means he's a line drive hitter like John Olerud who people keep comparing him to. Not to diminish the fact that line drive hitters are typically ideal, but guys with those types of swings don't usually get the loft to carry that wall.

[gunnarthor]

 

From the write up:

 

"Everyone expects the Padres and GM A.J. Preller to try to do what it takes to push Greene down to them at No. 3,"

 

Hmmm, I hadn't heard that one before. So the Padres are going to do everything they can to make the Twins pay top dollar? The team that once upon a time picked hometown kid Matt Bush over Justin Verlander because they wouldn't meet his asking price?

 

Yeah that sounds like the Twins luck. They get the 1st overall pick and not only does the league lower the slot values at the top of the draft which hurts the Twins ability to load up on the best talent but now teams below them are  maneuvering to sabotage their picks.

My guess is is that the Padres are telling Greene that they'll pay him more than the Twins. Twins have more pool money and our 1st round pick is worth about 1m more than San Diego's.  But if San Diego tells Greene that they'll pony up 8m for him (1.5 more than their slot amount meaning they'd have to punt some later picks) the Twins might pass.  And if the Twins want to save money with their #1 pick to give a little more at 35/37, Greene might not be on discount.

[drjim]

 

True. But a HS RH pitcher is also pretty risky, especially if you're turning down a Bryant-type bat.  Greene's probably better than all of these guys but all of these HS arms were in the debate about 1/1 the last few years - Aiken, Tate, Groome, Pint, Kolek, Stewart.  

 

That is a good point on the HS righties. Could be a draft to ignore all the previous rules.

[mazeville]

 

From the write up:

 

"Everyone expects the Padres and GM A.J. Preller to try to do what it takes to push Greene down to them at No. 3,"

 

Hmmm, I hadn't heard that one before. So the Padres are going to do everything they can to make the Twins pay top dollar? The team that once upon a time picked hometown kid Matt Bush over Justin Verlander because they wouldn't meet his asking price?

 

Yeah that sounds like the Twins luck. They get the 1st overall pick and not only does the league lower the slot values at the top of the draft which hurts the Twins ability to load up on the best talent but now teams below them are  maneuvering to sabotage their picks.

 

Um, but what can they do? Seriously? If the Twins pick Greene, the Twins pick Greene. If the Padres try to talk Greene into playing hardball with the Twins, then the Padres would have a serious tampering charge on their hands.

 

Also, I'm nearly certain Mr. Greene wants to be the top pick in the draft, rather than No. 3. These kids have egos. And there are plenty of horror stories of stud high school pitchers who try to force teams' hands by going to college, only getting themselves injured in the process. So it would be stupid for the Padres and Greene to do anything to keep the Twins from drafting him.

 

THAT SAID, the thing you should be annoyed with is that the Twins can't trade this pick. I think the smart thing to do would be to trade Greene to the Padres and get prospects + additional draft picks or whatever in exchange -- much like they do in other sports. That baseball teams can't trade their picks is rather annoying.

[laloesch]

 

From the write up:

 

"Everyone expects the Padres and GM A.J. Preller to try to do what it takes to push Greene down to them at No. 3,"

 

Hmmm, I hadn't heard that one before. So the Padres are going to do everything they can to make the Twins pay top dollar? The team that once upon a time picked hometown kid Matt Bush over Justin Verlander because they wouldn't meet his asking price?

 

Yeah that sounds like the Twins luck. They get the 1st overall pick and not only does the league lower the slot values at the top of the draft which hurts the Twins ability to load up on the best talent but now teams below them are maneuvering to sabotage their picks.

 

Wow sounds completely unethical if you ask me.  

[nicksaviking]

 

My guess is is that the Padres are telling Greene that they'll pay him more than the Twins. Twins have more pool money and our 1st round pick is worth about 1m more than San Diego's.  But if San Diego tells Greene that they'll pony up 8m for him (1.5 more than their slot amount meaning they'd have to punt some later picks) the Twins might pass.  And if the Twins want to save money with their #1 pick to give a little more at 35/37, Greene might not be on discount.

 

Yeah, that's my understanding of that statement. Kind of a punch in the gut.

[gunnarthor]

 

Wow sounds completely unethical if you ask me.  

AJ Preller has been suspended twice by baseball for unethical acts.

[nicksaviking]

 

Wow sounds completely unethical if you ask me.  

 

Well that was the norm prior to the slotting rules. Scott Boras wouldn't have ever bothered representing HS kids if he couldn't squeeze 3x the kids value out of the big money clubs. Small market teams were regularly screwed over until the new system came into place.

 

Now small market clubs can screw over other small market clubs it seems.

 

And while this frustrates me, I'd be a hypocrite if I didn't acknowledge that about a dozen pages back I hoped the Twins would promise guys over-slot money with their next two picks to try to get them to refuse to sign with clubs drafting in the 15-30 range.

[laloesch]

 

AJ Preller has been suspended twice by baseball for unethical acts.

 

If i was Falvey and Levine and i got wind of this (i'm sure they are already aware), i'd be calling Rob Manfred and hopefully he tells him to knock it off or ELSE!

[drjim]

Twins can call that bluff. I'm sure Preller would love to get Greene, but not much he can do if he's the Twins guy - they control the pick and the highest pool.

 

It's similar to Blake Rutherford last year. He gave high demands to every team to try and drop to the Mets, but the Yankees snatched him up and dared him not to sign.

[Vanimal46]

 

From the write up:

 

"Everyone expects the Padres and GM A.J. Preller to try to do what it takes to push Greene down to them at No. 3,"

 

Hmmm, I hadn't heard that one before. So the Padres are going to do everything they can to make the Twins pay top dollar? The team that once upon a time picked hometown kid Matt Bush over Justin Verlander because they wouldn't meet his asking price?

 

Yeah that sounds like the Twins luck. They get the 1st overall pick and not only does the league lower the slot values at the top of the draft which hurts the Twins ability to load up on the best talent but now teams below them are maneuvering to sabotage their picks.

 

I don't think it should matter what the Padres are trying to do. If Greene is the pick at 1:1 then pony up and don't try to low ball him. I think we all agree that the Twins have organizational depth. May not be the best depth out there, but it's still depth. 

They need star power in the farm again. I'd hate to pass on star potential because they couldn't come to an agreement on the money. 

[markos]

 

AJ Preller has been suspended twice by baseball for unethical acts.

Levine worked with Preller in Texas. He probably has a good idea how he operates.

 

Frankly, I wouldn't be shocked if Preller convinces Greene that the Padres will give him $8M at #3, Greene tells everyone he won't sign for less than $8M, Green drops to #3, the Padres draft him, and then Preller only offers him $6M and says take-it-or-leave-it. He seems like that kind of guy.

[markos]

Does anyone know if the new CBA kept the same penalties for going over the draft pool. Basically, is it still just a 100% tax on the first 5% over the pool, and then losing draft picks for more than that?

[gunnarthor]

 

Levine worked with Preller in Texas. He probably has a good idea how he operates.

 

Frankly, I wouldn't be shocked if Preller convinces Greene that the Padres will give him $8M at #3, Greene tells everyone he won't sign for less than $8M, Green drops to #3, the Padres draft him, and then Preller only offers him $6M and says take-it-or-leave-it. He seems like that kind of guy.

Honestly, I don't think he could pull that off. Preller would be making a huge enemy of whoever Greene's adviser is and no one in the drafting business would trust Preller again. The long-term mess isn't worth it.

 

Remember a few years ago the Astros tried to screw over Aiken and his adviser nearly got the Astros to forfeit a draft pick and they ended up settling with another draftee (Jacob Nix) for over a million dollars.

[Willihammer]

Stupid question- is Greene the best prep pitcher in this draft class? Forget about his bat for a second.

[mazeville]

 

Levine worked with Preller in Texas. He probably has a good idea how he operates.

 

Frankly, I wouldn't be shocked if Preller convinces Greene that the Padres will give him $8M at #3, Greene tells everyone he won't sign for less than $8M, Green drops to #3, the Padres draft him, and then Preller only offers him $6M and says take-it-or-leave-it. He seems like that kind of guy.

 

There's just not that much money in the draft pool and the Padres can't pay as much as the Twins. This is a stupid move that would backfire. 

 

Honestly, the BA comment is hardly worth fretting about. But here people are, fretting about it. If the Twins want Greene, they'll get him. 

[mazeville]

 

Honestly, I don't think he could pull that off. Preller would be making a huge enemy of whoever Greene's adviser is and no one in the drafting business would trust Preller again. The long-term mess isn't worth it.

 

Remember a few years ago the Astros tried to screw over Aiken and his adviser nearly got the Astros to forfeit a draft pick and they ended up settling with another draftee (Jacob Nix) for over a million dollars.

 

The Astros should have lost that draft pick. It still pisses me off that they didn't.

[mazeville]

 

Yeah, that's my understanding of that statement. Kind of a punch in the gut.

 

Do you have some sort of proof of this or are you just talking?

 

The Padres can only do so much and if the Twins say, "well, I don't want to pay such-and-such amount for the top pick of the draft" then they're the idiots. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Stupid question- is Greene the best prep pitcher in this draft class? Forget about his bat for a second.

Almost certainly. But I think Hall might arguably have better secondary stuff at this time.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Stupid question- is Greene the best prep pitcher in this draft class? Forget about his bat for a second.

 

I have no idea, but since nearly every draft site likes him as a pitcher, and nearly every site him as 1:1 or so, I'm guessing yes.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't think it should matter what the Padres are trying to do. If Greene is the pick at 1:1 then pony up and don't try to low ball him. I think we all agree that the Twins have organizational depth. May not be the best depth out there, but it's still depth. 

They need star power in the farm again. I'd hate to pass on star potential because they couldn't come to an agreement on the money. 

 

I agree. If anything this makes me want Greene more.

 

I was just really, really hoping that the Twins could work this draft like the Astros had been doing when they were always in the driver's seat. It's looking like the Twins are going to have much less leverage than I originally hoped for.