2017 MLB draft thread

[gunnarthor]

 

I loved Morneau, but his swing couldn't cut it at Target Field and he always looked so frustrated when he thought he hit a bomb that would have previously gone yard at the Metrodome but it ended up coming up shy at the new field. I have no idea about the physics of it, but it seems those line drive blasts just get knocked down before they can get to the fence. It seems like the deep shots that get elevated right away are the ones that clear the wall.

The cement's dry now though.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The cement's dry now though.

 

And the trees are gone...

[Willihammer]

I loved Morneau, but his swing couldn't cut it at Target Field and he always looked so frustrated when he thought he hit a bomb that would have previously gone yard at the Metrodome but it ended up coming up shy at the new field. I have no idea about the physics of it, but it seems those line drive blasts just get knocked down before they can get to the fence. It seems like the deep shots that get elevated right away are the ones that clear the wall.

Yeah whereas Thome and his uppercut had no problem.

It would be cool to have GB/FB numbers on some of these guys.

[Mike Sixel]

Is Brendan McKay a guy who can go top 3 in the draft? If so, as a hitter or pitcher?

Keith Law: Yes. I think if the draft were held today, which fortunately it isn’t because I’m not ready, the top 3 would be McKay, Greene, and Wright in some order. I know one team up top that likes McKay more as a hitter, but the consensus is still very much that he’s a LH starter. The 15 K outing didn’t hurt

[Mike Sixel]

Philip : At this moment how would you rank McKay, Bukauskas, Wright, Faedo, Romero

 

 

Keith Law: McKay, Wright, and Faedo all project as sure starters if healthy. Bukauskas might have the best 3-pitch mix of all of them, but he’s a 6′ RHP with no plane and no use of his lower half in his delivery. I would have to rate him lowest because I think he’s probably a reliever

[gunnarthor]

Law's consistent with that short pitcher plane thing

[diehardtwinsfan]

It's fun watching my own desires for this pick evolve as the season goes on...  McKay is a bit of a fast riser too, so I wonder if he'd take an underslot deal at 1 overall.  I like Greene, but for all the talk about HS arms, we forget that Kohl Stewart was hardly a reach at 4.  Greene may be a better prospect than Stewart ever was, but we kind of undersell the risk there in favor of the reward.  Not quite sure who I'd take, but I think at the moment that I'm at one of those two.

 

Greene probably has the higher upside, but McKay will likely be in the majors much sooner and has a pretty decent upside on his own. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

It's fun watching my own desires for this pick evolve as the season goes on...  McKay is a bit of a fast riser too, so I wonder if he'd take an underslot deal at 1 overall.  I like Greene, but for all the talk about HS arms, we forget that Kohl Stewart was hardly a reach at 4.  Greene may be a better prospect than Stewart ever was, but we kind of undersell the risk there in favor of the reward.  Not quite sure who I'd take, but I think at the moment that I'm at one of those two.

 

Greene probably has the higher upside, but McKay will likely be in the majors much sooner and has a pretty decent upside on his own. 

 

I just hope they do a LOT of scouting and research (which it seems like they are doing from all reports) and take the guy they feel has the best chance to succeed in the majors. And, then obviously, HIT on that player.

 

Here are some statistics of a college pitcher the Twins took VERY HIGH in the draft years ago...

 

2.72 era, 7-4 record, 119 1/3 innings, 166 k's, 84 hits, 28 walks, 6 complete games that year.

 

Adam Johnson never did really make it to the majors though. So hopefully they don't pass on a superior player (Greene, or whoever they deem the best pick) and grab someone that never pans out.

[gunnarthor]

 

I just hope they do a LOT of scouting and research (which it seems like they are doing from all reports) and take the guy they feel has the best chance to succeed in the majors. And, then obviously, HIT on that player.

 

Here are some statistics of a college pitcher the Twins took VERY HIGH in the draft years ago...

 

2.72 era, 7-4 record, 119 1/3 innings, 166 k's, 84 hits, 28 walks, 6 complete games that year.

 

Adam Johnson never did really make it to the majors though. So hopefully they don't pass on a superior player (Greene, or whoever they deem the best pick) and grab someone that never pans out.

IIRC, the Johnson draft was a one person draft and the Twins had the second pick. SD took Adrian Gonzalez #1.  There was no consensus after Gonzalez but Johnson was in the mix. He apparently was a bit of a head case but he was pretty clearly rushed to the majors as well.

[Willihammer]

It's fun watching my own desires for this pick evolve as the season goes on...  McKay is a bit of a fast riser too, so I wonder if he'd take an underslot deal at 1 overall.  I like Greene, but for all the talk about HS arms, we forget that Kohl Stewart was hardly a reach at 4.  Greene may be a better prospect than Stewart ever was, but we kind of undersell the risk there in favor of the reward.  Not quite sure who I'd take, but I think at the moment that I'm at one of those two.

 

Greene probably has the higher upside, but McKay will likely be in the majors much sooner and has a pretty decent upside on his own.

I was thinking about McKay. 90-93, big curveball, fringey changeup. Remind you of anyone?

But he racks up strikeouts, starting, so maybe there is some additional extension or spin with McKay.

Avg launch angle, spin, extension- gahhh, would be so cool to have this data on draft eligible guys.

[laloesch]

 

I was thinking about McKay. 90-93, big curveball, fringey changeup. Remind you of anyone?
But he racks up strikeouts, starting, so maybe there is some additional extension or spin with McKay.
Avg launch angle, spin, extension- gahhh, would be so cool to have this data on draft eligible guys.

 

Are you comparing him to Tyler Duffey?  He does throw a change but very rarely.

[nicksaviking]

 

I was thinking about McKay. 90-93, big curveball, fringey changeup. Remind you of anyone?
But he racks up strikeouts, starting, so maybe there is some additional extension or spin with McKay.
Avg launch angle, spin, extension- gahhh, would be so cool to have this data on draft eligible guys.

 

I have an unhealthy desire for strikeouts, however it never seems that college K numbers are much of an indicator.

 

I think I would be pretty skeptical that that velocity and the lack of a slider would yield sufficient swings and misses to satisfy the unreasonable voice in my head demanding to finally get an elite strikeout artist.

[diehardtwinsfan]

On my way to Fort Myers today, I happened to sit next to this kid's dad on the plane.  We ended up chatting baseball quite a bit as the dad follows his son around a lot. 

 

Of note, his dad was a Twins fan growing up.  Big fan of McKay for the record.

[Mike Sixel]

1:51
Kev: Odds we ever see a Greene-like player truly developed as a two way player? If Otani/Betancourt make it work, could it happen?

 

1:52
Eric A Longenhagen: Requires a very specific skill set as well as a specific quality of skills. Like with Otani and Greene, I’m not developing them as two-way guys. No way. Not risking the development of their arms because it’s fun to watch Greene take BP and infield.

 

Ace: What is the strength of this years draft? College hitters? Prep pitchers?

 

 

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: College arms but it’s a weird class. The first college arm off the board might be a 6′ righty, or it might be a college arm drafted as a hitter.
12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: Also, Southern California is really strong.

[Willihammer]

With the Twins suddenly interested in accounting for the time players spend on training, BP, bullpens, etc it would seem unlikely they'd develop Greene into a two-way player, no?

[gunnarthor]

Doesn't seem like anyone is really pushing Greene for that #1 pick.  

[Willihammer]

http://www.ekusports.com/news/2017/3/28/baseball-fisher-earns-national-honors-for-second-straight-week.aspx

 

 

For the second consecutive week Eastern Kentucky University's Ben Fisher earned multiple National Player of the Week awards.

On Monday Fisher was selected as a Collegiate Baseball National Player of the Week, and the Madness National Player of the Week. He was also named the Madness Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Week.

 

Fisher is #1 in the NCAA in HR and #2 in slg%. Senior, first baseman, L/L, 6'1, 215.

Overall: 42/99 with 17 BB and 16 Ks against 13 HRs and 9 doubles. .424/.508/.909/1.417.

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Doesn't seem like anyone is really pushing Greene for that #1 pick.  

 

?

 

Hmm, I don't see the same things you do, I don't think.

[Eris]

 

Law's consistent with that short pitcher plane thing

 

Unfortunately, these things tend to self perpetuate in in MLB circles.  Marcus Stroman is 5'9" and the guy can pitch.  The learning/opportunity here is that maybe some excellent pitchers available in the later rounds and are available only because they are short.

Although this article was in 2010 it provides a perspective on effect of height on ML pitchers.  The summary is that there is a correlation between height and the round drafted and also becoming a starting major league pitcher.  There was no correlation between height and effectiveness across a broad category of parameters.  BB, WHIP, HR, etc.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I didn't update this weekend b/c I was in Fort Myers watching baseball instead of box scores, so I hope I'm forgiven

 

McKay is officially my pick for the Twins at one overall as he pitched a typical Twins outing going 7 innings giving up 3 runs (all earned) and striking out 14.  For fun he was 0/2 with 2 walks and taking a loss.

 

Faedo struck 7 giving up 0 runs in 7 innings in a pitchers duel.  In the same game, Lange took the loss going 8 and giving up 1 run, also striking out 7. 

 

Vanderbilt students apparently had to go to school this week.

 

Poche did not pitch well, lasting 4 innings, walking 4, and striking out 2. 

 

Bukauskas struck out 9 in 7 innings giving up 3 hits and 2 BB.

 

My fun to follow guy Parker Dunshee went 6 innings while striking out 12.  He gave up 3 ER, 3BB, and of course a balk.  I really hope the Twins take him with a later pick...  just b/c I met his dad.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

Callis' response to fan questions on the draft.  Suggests McKay could go #1.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/220538972/pipeline-inbox-2017-mlb-draft-questions/

 

Also of note is he thinks Beck is a later half of the first round guy.  I'd love it if the Twins could somehow get him to fall to 35 and go overslot to nab him.  Probably can't happen but what a nice dream.

[Mike Sixel]

Oooh boy, John Olerud number 1! Exciting!

 

Unless he can legit pitch, why would someone take a 1B only guy who hits like a good, but not great, hitter?

[Willihammer]

I'm damned intrigued by McKay too. He was the "John Olerud Two-Way Player of the Year" in his freshman and sophomore years, and is a lock to win it again this year. Prior year stats on his bio page:

 

http://www.gocards.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=6788&path=baseball

 

If the Twins take one of the two-way guys I really hope they find a way to develop him as such.

I think each player would face different challenges in doing that however.

 

With Greene, playing on the left side of the infield everyday would involve a lot of throwing. Too much I would think, to simultanously pitch either as a starter or reliever. He would have to move to first, DH, or maybe the outfield to keep his arm in shape. But to do that he'd have to hit like a corner bat.

 

With McKay, since he's already planted at first base he wouldn't throw basically ever during everyday play, no position change would be needed. The downside obviously is he would have to mash to hold an everyday job at first.

 

So, to remain two way players, both guys would have to mash.

Question- which player has the higher upside with the bat? Higher floor?

[Mike Sixel]

Why the bleep would you slow their development from good to great at something, by asking them to do more than 1 thing? There is a reason players specialize as either a hitter or pitcher....terrible idea, imo. 

 

Sure, after a few years if it doesn't pan out, make a switch, but not at the beginning. Pick one. Try to be great at it. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Oooh boy, John Olerud number 1! Exciting!

 

Unless he can legit pitch, why would someone take a 1B only guy who hits like a good, but not great, hitter?

John Olerud was a great hitter.  If I knew McKay would be that, I'd take him #1 in a heartbeat.  16 seasons, 58 WAR, 129 OPS+?  Yes, please.

[Mike Sixel]

 

John Olerud was a great hitter.  If I knew McKay would be that, I'd take him #1 in a heartbeat.  16 seasons, 58 WAR, 129 OPS+?  Yes, please.

 

john olerud upside......not "he's going to be john olerud".

 

but ya, that would be a nice career for sure.

[Willihammer]

John Olerud was a great hitter.  If I knew McKay would be that, I'd take him #1 in a heartbeat.  16 seasons, 58 WAR, 129 OPS+?  Yes, please.

Exactly. Imagine if he'd thrown a couple thousand innings as a pitcher and provided another 10-15 WAR.

Plus, the roster spot it would have freed up.

There are only 25 spots on the roster, flexibility is valuable, and it doesn't get much more flexible than being able to hit, field a position, and pitch.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Exactly. Imagine if he'd thrown a couple thousand innings as a pitcher and provided another 10-15 WAR.
Plus, the roster spot it would have freed up.
There are only 25 spots on the roster, flexibility is valuable, and it doesn't get much more flexible than being able to hit, field a position, and pitch.

 

In the last 50 years, who has done that? There is a reason you either pitch or hit at one time, not do both.

[Willihammer]

Why the bleep would you slow their development from good to great at something, by asking them to do more than 1 thing? There is a reason players specialize as either a hitter or pitcher....terrible idea, imo. 

 

Sure, after a few years if it doesn't pan out, make a switch, but not at the beginning. Pick one. Try to be great at it.

How much additional time would be required to say, develop McKay into a first baseman - relief pitcher? He already has two good pitches.

[Mike Sixel]

 

How much additional time would be required to say, develop McKay into a first baseman - relief pitcher? He already has two good pitches.

 

See above, name 1 player that has done that in the last 50 years?