2017 MLB draft thread

[diehardtwinsfan]

Baring some sort of scenario where the Twins manage to win the next 8, the Braves lose the next 8, and win the tie breaker, we'll be picking first overall for the first time since 2001 when we drafted some kid named Mauer.  It's the Twins, so hoping for a once a generational type talent is probably asking too much, as the baseball gods clearly hate us..

 

Looking at the early results won't say much.  There will be tons of movement.  Given the org's pitching needs, it might be nice to see some outstanding seasons from a college pitching or catching prospect.  A college pitcher in particular could suddenly make the rotation interesting in a hurry.

 

Here are some names to view:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/183854586/a-look-ahead-to-2017-mlb-draft-class/

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2645674-2017-mlb-mock-draft-early-predictions-for-top-1st-round-baseball-prospects

 

 

Discuss.

[beckmt]

Am a fan of a great college pitcher. High school pitcher would be next. Twins have several catchers that could make it and probably will still be looking at a high draft pick in 2018. Prefer college if possible

because next window may start in 2018 - 2019 and a college pitcher could help by then. The number 1 prospect seems interesting if he can keep it up this year.

[Mr. Brooks]

I know he's lost a little steam, but I'm still on the JJ Schwarz bandwagon.

Good catchers that can hit in the middle of the lineup are rare.

In theory, I guess I'd rather have a legit college ace that could move really fast, and we have a ways to go, but right now I'm not seeing one that stands out.

[Winston Smith]

This is as much about money as the player. Picking first gives them a chance to sign the guy early and maybe below slot which can give them extra money to sign a hard sign type later. It also gives them the most international money to spend and since they never go over that it should help or some could be traded.

Of course, MLB could change the rules this winter just to stick to the Twins.  

[gunnarthor]

All things being equal, I'd go for the college ace.

[biggentleben]

This year's draft is so much better to be early than last year's. This year there will be a lot of guys who are viable top 10 type of guys, whereas last year you had about 50 guys who normally would grade out as 15-40 type of guys, so good deals were still had on players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in talent.

 

High school talent is definitely the predominant in this class, but it seems that the top end of the class is more populated with college players. The top college arm comes from the same staff that sent a handful of guys to pro ball via the draft last year, the University of Florida.

 

I've seen Schwarz fall down as far as 20th in fall class rankings already. For what it's worth, even with the questions about his glove at catcher, Zach Collins was pretty consistently a top 10 guy all fall last year and kept that up.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Only issue with a guy like Schwartz is that you're in the same situation that pure hitters like Schwarber and Bryce Harper were in. The bats were ready well before the glove and they forced them to move off of catching to accommodate. I think the hope right now is that there is a clear BPA and that BPA is a college pitcher with ace upside...  That's the hope at least. 

 

The other hope is that you might get said player a mil or two under slot so they can get some higher ceiling HS guys in the later rounds, but I think more than anything that this is a secondary objective, as a clear cut BPA can certainly ask for slot. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

Schwartz is intriguing until you remember...

 

It is even harder to land an excellent, young, controllable pitcher than it is to land a catcher like that.

 

Also, at this point you really don't know how a catcher is going to develop. It is true for pitchers too, but you cannot teach a pitcher to throw faster. If they have the skills then their floor still looks pretty good.

[DaveW]

I think the days of big time hitting catchers are going to come to an end sooner than later.

 

Why risk injury to a guy like Harper or Sanchez when you easily plug them into a lineup 7days a week?

 

I'd prefer a high upside college SP personally, this team desperately needs live arms.

[twinssporto]

DRAFT PITCHING!  If you get a really good 1st round kid that's not a pitcher, TRADE HIM FOR A PITCHER!

[AZTwin]

Drafting a catcher first overall is like drafting a fullback first overall in the NFL. Just silly. Go for the ACE. Especially with how our pitching has been. Go under slot and hopefully a top 15 guy that's hard to sign falls to our 2nd round pick

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think given the orgs needs, faster to the majors is definitely something that should be valued more.  Not sure picking 1 overall that I want a top 15 guy under slot.  I'd hope that there are 2 ace type college pitchers that you can put against each other to perhaps save a million or two to use for some later round HS talents, but I really do hope that there's as close to a sure ace as possible sitting in the college ranks. That is one of those scenarios where the guy they drafted could be sitting in AA by the end of the year and be auditioning for a spot in 2018. 

[AZTwin]

Should have clarified. Go for top 3 guy and get whatever one you are most comfortable with but agree ahead of time to get him to go under slot. In the 2nd round is when you go over slot and pick up the top 15 guy

[Mr. Brooks]

Should have clarified. Go for top 3 guy and get whatever one you are most comfortable with but agree ahead of time to get him to go under slot. In the 2nd round is when you go over slot and pick up the top 15 guy

A top 3 guy isn't going much under slot.

[roger]

Living in that place Rodney Dangerfield once mentioned, Fantasy Land, we can hope that one of these college pitchers has a HUGE year and gets talked about as the next Strasburg. The Twins don't need a high school anything with the #1 pick, unless his name is Bryce Harper. They need a potential ACE who can be in their rotation by mid-2018.

 

And maybe the Baseball Gods will be with them and one of those catchers mentioned by Bleachers Report will drop to the COMP round.

[nytwinsfan]

 

A top 3 guy isn't going much under slot.

 

First overall almost always goes way underslot. What are you talking about? CBA may change a lot this year, so that might no longer be the case, but recently it has been.

[Thrylos]

If it were up to me, I'd pick the starting pitcher with the highest upside who is closest to the majors.  It is still way to early to even think about who that might be come next June.

 

If the draft was held today, as far as I am concerned, this would be a high school (and not a College) pitcher who has rarely been mentioned in 2016, but is about to get a lot of helium in 2017, RHP Alex Scherff.  Fastball already at 98+ with plus movement, above average to plus change, and a slider and curve.

 

But let's see what happens till June.

 

Oh, one more thing:  Forget about slots, bargains and being spendthrift.  The Twins got to pay and pay well for top talent the next few seasons to get this team to respectability...

[old nurse]

 

A top 3 guy isn't going much under slot.

1. PHI - Mickey Moniak, OF, La Costa Canyon HS (Calif.)
$6,100,000 (Pick value: $9,015,000)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level GCL Phillies
2. CIN - Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee
$6,200,000 (Pick value: $7,762,900)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level Billings
3. ATL - Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa HS (N.Y.)
$4,000,000 (Pick value: $6,510,800)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level GCL Braves
4. COL - Riley Pint, RHP, Saint Thomas Aquinas HS (Kan.)
$4,800,000 (Pick value: $5,258,700)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level Grand Junction
5. MIL - Corey Ray, OF, Louisville
$4,125,000 (Pick value: $4,382,200)
Starting assignment: Class A Advance Brevard County
6. OAK - A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida

 

2015

Team  Player  Pos.  School  Bonus  Pick value  Video
1  ARI  Dansby Swanson  SS  Vanderbilt  $6,500,000  $8,616,900  video
Starting assignment: TBD
2  HOU  Alex Bregman  SS  LSU  $5,900,000  $7,420,100  video
Starting assignment: Class A Quad Cities
3  COL  Brendan Rodgers  SS  Lake Mary HS (Fla.)  $5,500,000  $6,223,300  video
Start

[old nurse]

 

 

If it were up to me, I'd pick the starting pitcher with the highest upside who is closest to the majors.  It is still way to early to even think about who that might be come next June.

 

If the draft was held today, as far as I am concerned, this would be a high school (and not a College) pitcher who has rarely been mentioned in 2016, but is about to get a lot of helium in 2017, RHP Alex Scherff.  Fastball already at 98+ with plus movement, above average to plus change, and a slider and curve.

 

But let's see what happens till June.

 

Oh, one more thing:  Forget about slots, bargains and being spendthrift.  The Twins got to pay and pay well for top talent the next few seasons to get this team to respectability...

Why would you give up a couple of million that you could entice a different prospect with?  A lot depends on leverage the Twins would have. Correa went way under slot. He  probably did not have another option.  Of the recent top 3 picks, Rondon was the only one to get  more than slot. Swanson went 2 million under slot, Monial 3 million.  It would be necessary to find the player in the later rounds still available to spend the money on.

[gunnarthor]

 

Why would you give up a couple of million that you could entice a different prospect with?  A lot depends on leverage the Twins would have. Correa went way under slot. He  probably did not have another option.  Of the recent top 3 picks, Rondon was the only one to get  more than slot. Swanson went 2 million under slot, Monial 3 million.  It would be necessary to find the player in the later rounds still available to spend the money on.

Correa went under slot b/c there were a lot of guys who could reasonably fall into the 3-6 spot and the Astros got one to agree to go way underslot.  That was a pretty loaded draft though - Buxton, Appel, Correa, Zunino, Gausman, Zimmer, Russell and a hurt Giolito.

[Mr. Brooks]

First overall almost always goes way underslot. What are you talking about? CBA may change a lot this year, so that might no longer be the case, but recently it has been.

I stand corrected. Didn't realize they were signing so far under slot.

[Guest]

Best player available, any position.

 

P.S. Don't take someone expected to be quickest to the majors, unless that person meets the rule above.

[operation mindcrime]

This is as much about money as the player. Picking first gives them a chance to sign the guy early and maybe below slot which can give them extra money to sign a hard sign type later. It also gives them the most international money to spend and since they never go over that it should help or some could be traded.

Of course, MLB could change the rules this winter just to stick to the Twins.  

We should go all in internationally and pay the 100% overage.

[old nurse]

 

Correa went under slot b/c there were a lot of guys who could reasonably fall into the 3-6 spot and the Astros got one to agree to go way underslot.  That was a pretty loaded draft though - Buxton, Appel, Correa, Zunino, Gausman, Zimmer, Russell and a hurt Giolito.

What is the excuse for Swnson and Moniak signing under slot?   The fact is the club has leverage. The player might not get picked that high again, and hence lose money the club doesn't lose the draft pick for not signing the player.

[gunnarthor]

 

What is the excuse for Swnson and Moniak signing under slot?   The fact is the club has leverage. The player might not get picked that high again, and hence lose money the club doesn't lose the draft pick for not signing the player.

Wasn't trying to suggest that.  I was just explaining why Correa took so much less - I think he signed for less than 4 other players drafted behind him.  I agree that the Twins will save $ with the first pick and (hopefully) can spread that around in lower rounds.

[biggentleben]

 

What is the excuse for Swnson and Moniak signing under slot?   The fact is the club has leverage. The player might not get picked that high again, and hence lose money the club doesn't lose the draft pick for not signing the player.

 

The club does lose the signing pool money, though, if they don't sign that pick. The highest bonus paid in the slotting system has been Kris Bryant's $6.8M, and last year that would have been roughly $300K more than the full #3 slot in the draft. Philadelphia had a $9M+ bonus slot, so even if they tied Bryant's record number, they'd have had $2.2M left for future picks.

[Mike Sixel]

I have long been on the Schwartz bandwagon, but if there is a college ACE available, I think you go there......

 

but remember, the Cubs plan is simple. Draft great hitting, sign or trade for pitching.....we shouldn't ignore their success, imo.

[gunnarthor]

 

I have long been on the Schwartz bandwagon, but if there is a college ACE available, I think you go there......

 

but remember, the Cubs plan is simple. Draft great hitting, sign or trade for pitching.....we shouldn't ignore their success, imo.

That's not really what they did, though. They drafted Bryant, of course, and he's a stud.  But they have 9 hitters worth 1 WAR or more and only Bryant and Baez (#9 in 2011) were drafted.  They made some extremely great trades for Rizzo and Russell and nabbed Fowler, Ross, Zobrist and Heyward in FA (and Contreras in international FA).  

 

The Cubs made their roster by signing big free agents and making some fantastic trades. In fact, only six guys (out of 45 players) who have played at all this year were drafted by the Cubs.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's not really what they did, though. They drafted Bryant, of course, and he's a stud.  But they have 9 hitters worth 1 WAR or more and only Bryant and Baez (#9 in 2011) were drafted.  They made some extremely great trades for Rizzo and Russell and nabbed Fowler, Ross, Zobrist and Heyward in FA (and Contreras in international FA).  

 

The Cubs made their roster by signing big free agents and making some fantastic trades. In fact, only six guys (out of 45 players) who have played at all this year were drafted by the Cubs.  

 

I guess I should have said acquired, but your point remains. (don't forget they drafted Schwarber).

 

I have previously pointed out that the Cubs were rebuilt very quickly due to astute (and lucky) trades and signings. But, that can't only be luck. (mostly) Same group did it in Boston. It's why the Twins should be trading Dozier and ESAn, imo.....

[Mike Sixel]

And my real point was I kind of want that college ACE, if there is one, now, more than Schartz (and I really don't need another 6 year HS project at this point....they are drafting high enough to take a great college player).