2017 MLB draft thread

[Mike Sixel]

 

Minorleagueball has a write up on Austin Beck.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/4/18/15148162/2017-mlb-draft-austin-beck-of-arcadia-north-carolina

 

The write up indicates that Beck could move into consideration for #1 overall.

 

wow, that's rather glowing....

[Mike Sixel]

Near the end are some thoughts on Greene:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-419/

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Near the end are some thoughts on Greene:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-419/

Longenhagen usually sounds more pessimistic on prospects than most but he didn't have much bad to say about Greene.  I'm having a hard time seeing the Twins pass on him.

[Guest]

It's hard to see the Twins taking a high school pitcher before they are confident their pitcher development process is working. Right now, it looks really broken and the same cooks are still in the kitchen. Nothing against Greene, who sounds exciting and could have a great career, but McKay would be a better choice for the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's hard to see the Twins taking a high school pitcher before they are confident their pitcher development process is working. Right now, it looks really broken and the same cooks are still in the kitchen. Nothing against Greene, who sounds exciting and could have a great career, but McKay would be a better choice for the Twins.

 

a guy with a CEILING of a two, is a better choice than a "generational talent"? Because they think their development system is bad? I couldn't disagree more strongly. 

 

Now, if they somehow think McKay can be one of the best pitchers in the game, take him.....but no one thinks that.

[gunnarthor]

Scout.com has a mock draft up.  This might be pretty boring - all the mocks have us taking Greene.

 

http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1770985-2017-mlb-draft-mock-draft-1-0

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

a guy with a CEILING of a two, is a better choice than a "generational talent"? Because they think their development system is bad? I couldn't disagree more strongly. 

 

Now, if they somehow think McKay can be one of the best pitchers in the game, take him.....but no one thinks that.

 

It's not just ceiling though... and a chance of being a generational talent does not equal a generational talent.  Greene also has a very low floor while the guy with a 2 ceiling is much more likely to get there.  All of that goes into BPA... Personally, I'm fine with either pick, but as I've noted already in this thread... Kohl Stewart was the ceiling guy a few years back, and look where he's at.

[Hrbowski]

 

Scout.com has a mock draft up.  This might be pretty boring - all the mocks have us taking Greene.

 

http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1770985-2017-mlb-draft-mock-draft-1-0

Just started work on my first mock, which should be up soon. Some of you might be surprised with some connections I have heard about, but hey, I was the first person to connect Tyler Stephenson and the Reds back in 2015, and have had other success not going with the consensus.

[Guest]

It's not just ceiling though... and a chance of being a generational talent does not equal a generational talent.  Greene also has a very low floor while the guy with a 2 ceiling is much more likely to get there.  All of that goes into BPA... Personally, I'm fine with either pick, but as I've noted already in this thread... Kohl Stewart was the ceiling guy a few years back, and look where he's at.

Over the last twenty years or so, it seems that there have been four "generational talents" in the draft as pitchers: Brien Taylor, Mark Prior, Stephen Strasburg and Mark Appel. Another high school pitcher who was supposed to be great is Brady Aiken. Perceived talent itself is not the sole factor for selecting someone, nor is it a great predictor of success. The team has to see how it realizes that talent (this is different from drafting for need). It's hard to see how the Twins can take a high school pitcher, who only has one pitch, with any confidence that they'll be able to get great results from him.

[Vanimal46]

 

It's hard to see the Twins taking a high school pitcher before they are confident their pitcher development process is working. Right now, it looks really broken and the same cooks are still in the kitchen. Nothing against Greene, who sounds exciting and could have a great career, but McKay would be a better choice for the Twins.

 

I hope Falvey is confident in his prospect development process that was learned in Cleveland... They're probably not going to know for sure here in Minnesota until a year or 2 down the line. 

 

The thing that excites me about Greene is it gives Falvey and Levine an 18 year old kid where they can implement their full developmental process on. 

[Vanimal46]

 

It's not just ceiling though... and a chance of being a generational talent does not equal a generational talent.  Greene also has a very low floor while the guy with a 2 ceiling is much more likely to get there.  All of that goes into BPA... Personally, I'm fine with either pick, but as I've noted already in this thread... Kohl Stewart was the ceiling guy a few years back, and look where he's at.

 

He's in AA as a 22 year old! Not terrible under the ol' Total System Failure

Even though some of the cooks remain the same in the minors, I'm a little more confident that Falvey has a better development plan than the old regime. 

[Hrbowski]

 

I hope Falvey is confident in his prospect development process that was learned in Cleveland... They're probably not going to know for sure here in Minnesota until a year or 2 down the line. 

 

The thing that excites me about Greene is it gives Falvey and Levine an 18 year old kid where they can implement their full developmental process on. 

They could do the same with Austin Beck, who is more athletic and has just as high of a ceiling as Greene.

[drjim]

They'll end up being boring and pick Kyle Wright.

[Vanimal46]

 

They could do the same with Austin Beck, who is more athletic and has just as high of a ceiling as Greene.

 

Is he projected to be available for the Twins' next pick after 1:1? 

[Guest]

I hope Falvey is confident in his prospect development process that was learned in Cleveland... They're probably not going to know for sure here in Minnesota until a year or 2 down the line. 

 

The thing that excites me about Greene is it gives Falvey and Levine an 18 year old kid where they can implement their full developmental process on.

 

Early returns this year from Chattanooga is that a total overhaul in pitcher development is necessary. I like that Falvey and Levine are taking a year to learn the organization. After they establish a new minor league staff, then they should contemplate a one-pitch high school pitcher.

[Hrbowski]

 

Is he projected to be available for the Twins' next pick after 1:1? 

No, but they might pick him #1. I don't think he will fall out of the top five.

[PseudoSABR]

They should trade down.

[Mike Sixel]

 

They should trade down.

 

If only they could.....

[Bob Sacamento]

Didn't see it mentioned in here but looks like Hunter Greene has been shut down for the rest of the high school year on the mound to protect his arm.  I know some will question the move but in this day of where coaches (especially college ones) abuse their staff aces down the stretch for team wins, I laud the coach.  Let a major league team who commits millions to him have control of him as there is no benefit to Greene in having him throw another couple starts.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Didn't see it mentioned in here but looks like Hunter Greene has been shut down for the rest of the high school year on the mound to protect his arm.  I know some will question the move but in this day of where coaches (especially college ones) abuse their staff aces down the stretch for team wins, I laud the coach.  Let a major league team who commits millions to him have control of him as there is no benefit to Greene in having him throw another couple starts.

 

I too appreciate this coach. He also didn't abuse him during the year with long outings. Very good man.

[twinsfanstreif]

Over the last twenty years or so, it seems that there have been four "generational talents" in the draft as pitchers: Brien Taylor, Mark Prior, Stephen Strasburg and Mark Appel. Another high school pitcher who was supposed to be great is Brady Aiken. Perceived talent itself is not the sole factor for selecting someone, nor is it a great predictor of success. The team has to see how it realizes that talent (this is different from drafting for need). It's hard to see how the Twins can take a high school pitcher, who only has one pitch, with any confidence that they'll be able to get great results from him.

No one considered Appel a "generational talent," he was often at the top of draft boards but I maintained in both of those drafts that I wouldn't have touched him. I saw too many things in his delivery that I didn't like and he was way too hitable in college. Also Prior and Strasburg really are generational pitching talents if it weren't for injuries, something that is fairly difficult to predict. I would say that Tallion and Bundy were in that Generational talent conversation too though.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd be thrilled if the Twins got Strasburg in this draft.

[Willihammer]

Dylan Bundy's senior year of high school he struck out 158 batters in 71 IP for a 20.0 K/9

 

Taillon: 114 in 62, a 16.5 K/9.

 

Greene? 43 in 28 IP. 13.8 K/9.

 

If he is a generational talent than he is a loooooong way from realizing that potential.

[Hrbowski]

 

I too appreciate this coach. He also didn't abuse him during the year with long outings. Very good man.

He will be pitching on the 28th. He was only shut down for the Boras Classic.

[Hrbowski]

 

Dylan Bundy's senior year of high school he struck out 158 batters in 71 IP for a 20.0 K/9

 

Taillon: 114 in 62, a 16.5 K/9.

 

Greene? 43 in 28 IP. 13.8 K/9.

 

If he is a generational talent than he is a loooooong way from realizing that potential.

There is a big variety in hitter quality in high school. I am not on the Greene bandwagon, but facing hitters in Canada is a lot easier than facing hitters in South Cal.

[gunnarthor]

 

Dylan Bundy's senior year of high school he struck out 158 batters in 71 IP for a 20.0 K/9

 

Taillon: 114 in 62, a 16.5 K/9.

 

Greene? 43 in 28 IP. 13.8 K/9.

 

If he is a generational talent than he is a loooooong way from realizing that potential.

Again, HS stats mean nothing.  I don't know if Greene is a generational talent or if it even matters.  He's #1 on pretty much every single draft board that we've seen. 

 

Harper and Strasburg were both generational talents and neither were the best picks in their drafts.  The nice thing about the #1 pick is that the Twins are very likely to get a very good player so long as they don't over think this.

[Willihammer]

 

Again, HS stats mean nothing.  I don't know if Greene is a generational talent or if it even matters.  He's #1 on pretty much every single draft board that we've seen. 

 

Harper and Strasburg were both generational talents and neither were the best picks in their drafts.  The nice thing about the #1 pick is that the Twins are very likely to get a very good player so long as they don't over think this.

The difference between Greene and Harper or Strasburg is that those two produced at rates supporting the hyporbolic language about their potential. Greene did not. If you think stats are meaningless, then this is entirely coincidental. I disagree.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW has a new insider up.....

 

If Wright looks like this the rest of the year, back in the running for 1:1

 

kendall, not so much, can't make contact, as several of us pointed out.

 

Faedo? Inconsistent.

 

there's more....

[InfraRen]

Baseball America's newest mock, today:

 

1. Twins

 

Rumors of the Twins floating deals with several players are circulating, with players as disparate as Southern California prep Royce Lewis to Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith. But the least controversial player on the board is Louisville’s two-way star Brendan McKay, whom the Twins would pick as a pitcher.

 

Pick: Brendan McKay, 1b/lhp, Louisville

 

2. Reds

 

Hunter Greene, the top prep player on the board and owner of a 100 mph fastball, has had an up-and-down spring, and the rumors of he and his family attempting to maneuver his way to the No. 3 pick with the Padres are a poorly kept secret. The Padres’ throwing program is more in line with Greene’s program, and it’s on the West Coast, among other advantages. Greene isn’t pitching this week in the Boras Classic and is widely believed to be shutting down as a pitcher in another attempt to move down to the third pick. But the Reds, who covet McKay, also aren’t afraid to call Greene’s bluff.

 

 

Full thing:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-2-0-brendan-mckay-hunter-greene-lead-still-wide-open-draft/#EJdG2MUo37V8vAgj.97

[Mike Sixel]

booo...but, hey, we'll see McKay here in 4-5 years....