2017 MLB draft thread

[Vanimal46]

I'm a bit skeptical of fast risers so close to their respective draft date... Usually doesn't turn out well in the NFL when someone rises from a 3rd round pick to a 1st round pick a couple of weeks before the draft. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm a bit skeptical of fast risers so close to their respective draft date... Usually doesn't turn out well in the NFL when someone rises from a 3rd round pick to a 1st round pick a couple of weeks before the draft. 

I'm not sure this is the same.  I don't know beans about Gore but I imagine he's rising on boards because teams are seeing something in the games he is playing right now that are enticing them.  Fast risers in football tend to go up because of the combine, which isn't quite the same thing as playing your senior season of baseball.  

[drjim]

 

I'm a bit skeptical of fast risers so close to their respective draft date... Usually doesn't turn out well in the NFL when someone rises from a 3rd round pick to a 1st round pick a couple of weeks before the draft. 

 

Andrew Benintendi says hi.

 

Baseball is different because they are often playing up until close to the draft, the NFL movement is much more from off the field measurables.

[Mike Sixel]

Plus, there is just a lot less data / film on amateur baseball players. I don't fear the fast risers as much in baseball.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm a bit skeptical of fast risers so close to their respective draft date... Usually doesn't turn out well in the NFL when someone rises from a 3rd round pick to a 1st round pick a couple of weeks before the draft. 

That said, recently a few teams have overthought it and spent too much on fast risers.  Rodon was the clear 1/1 going into the draft season but he had a slightly down year and teams let themselves get fooled by HS prep arms Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek. By the draft Rodon was such a well known commodity that it was a lot of nit-picking on him and he wasn't the shiny new toy. So Rodon fell to the Sox at #3 (although he did get the highest signing bonus of the draft).  I wonder if Wright and Faedo's struggles are similar.

[Willihammer]

Found a report from last week on Gore:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/game-report-mackenzie-gore-battles-without-best/#L715Ri5wyKGySqLL.97

 

edit: video

http://video.grindnetworks.com/embed/9P2988Ea5

[Mike Sixel]

 

That said, recently a few teams have overthought it and spent too much on fast risers.  Rodon was the clear 1/1 going into the draft season but he had a slightly down year and teams let themselves get fooled by HS prep arms Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek. By the draft Rodon was such a well known commodity that it was a lot of nit-picking on him and he wasn't the shiny new toy. So Rodon fell to the Sox at #3 (although he did get the highest signing bonus of the draft).  I wonder if Wright and Faedo's struggles are similar.

 

Like Trea Turner.

 

I was going to post I think teams undervalue late droppers who didn't really change (unlike Kendall, who just can't hit this year).

[Hrbowski]

 

That said, recently a few teams have overthought it and spent too much on fast risers.  Rodon was the clear 1/1 going into the draft season but he had a slightly down year and teams let themselves get fooled by HS prep arms Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek. By the draft Rodon was such a well known commodity that it was a lot of nit-picking on him and he wasn't the shiny new toy. So Rodon fell to the Sox at #3 (although he did get the highest signing bonus of the draft).  I wonder if Wright and Faedo's struggles are similar.

Faedo's stuff is off this year, but Wright has looked pretty good from a scouting perspective.

[Hrbowski]

 

 

Like Trea Turner.

 

I was going to post I think teams undervalue late droppers who didn't really change (unlike Kendall, who just can't hit this year).

I wasn't blogging at the time, but I wanted the Twins to take Turner or Jeff Hoffman. I wasn't a big fan of Gordon or Nola. So far my biggest mistake was being low on Benintendi, which was because I used to not buy into late risers. Needless to say, my philosophy has changed.

[gunnarthor]

 

Faedo's stuff is off this year, but Wright has looked pretty good from a scouting perspective.

But isn't Faedo recovering from surgery?  I mean, I believe he was a top HS arm with a firm commitment to Florida. Last year's Gator team had 5 pitchers drafted in the first four rounds - including AJ Puk at #6 - and Faedo was the best pitcher on that staff.  Coming into the season he was at the top of all lists with Greene and Kendell.   

[Mike Sixel]

 

I wasn't blogging at the time, but I wanted the Twins to take Turner or Jeff Hoffman. I wasn't a big fan of Gordon or Nola. So far my biggest mistake was being low on Benintendi, which was because I used to not buy into late risers. Needless to say, my philosophy has changed.

 

I don't know enough to know what I want, but I knew the Twins would take Gordon. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Like Trea Turner.

 

I was going to post I think teams undervalue late droppers who didn't really change (unlike Kendall, who just can't hit this year).

I think Turner represents a third problem in drafting - he is what he is.  There isn't anymore room for projection.  He's mostly a finished product who does a few things well but nothing great and might get nixed for a few question marks.  Both Turner and Benintendi had questions about not being able to play defense (at short and CF respectively) at the ML level and were more or less physically developed where teams didn't see a lot of room for development.  So Turner wasn't sexy.  He didn't have a big hit tool or tons of power.  He wasn't going to grow into the next ARod.  He had good baseball instincts but wasn't that fast.  So the question marks pushed him down a few slots (he was still a top 15 pick and Benintendi was a top 10).  

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think Turner represents a third problem in drafting - he is what he is.  There isn't anymore room for projection.  He's mostly a finished product who does a few things well but nothing great and might get nixed for a few question marks.  Both Turner and Benintendi had questions about not being able to play defense (at short and CF respectively) at the ML level and were more or less physically developed where teams didn't see a lot of room for development.  So Turner wasn't sexy.  He didn't have a big hit tool or tons of power.  He wasn't going to grow into the next ARod.  He had good baseball instincts but wasn't that fast.  So the question marks pushed him down a few slots (he was still a top 15 pick and Benintendi was a top 10).  

 

Turner wasn't fast? I must be remembering that part wrong. but yes, he did it all very well. And didn't have UPSIDE. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Turner wasn't fast? I must be remembering that part wrong. but yes, he did it all very well. And didn't have UPSIDE. 

Nope, you're right, I remembered wrong.  Here's mlbpipeline's review (they had him #14 on their list).

 

"Though Turner stands out most for his top-of-the-scale speed, he's more than just a burner (they gave him an 80 grade).  With his wheels and ability to make contact and control the strike zone, he has the tools to become a quality leadoff hitter at the Major League level. The key will be toning down his swing, which can get long, and his approach, which can get a little out of control."

[Hrbowski]

 

Turner wasn't fast? I must be remembering that part wrong. but yes, he did it all very well. And didn't have UPSIDE. 

Turner had a leg injury in his junior year, which hurt his stock.

[Hrbowski]

 

But isn't Faedo recovering from surgery?  I mean, I believe he was a top HS arm with a firm commitment to Florida. Last year's Gator team had 5 pitchers drafted in the first four rounds - including AJ Puk at #6 - and Faedo was the best pitcher on that staff.  Coming into the season he was at the top of all lists with Greene and Kendell.   

He had minor knee surgery last fall.

[InfraRen]

So, Brendan McKay has hit 3 HR's in the same game today..

 

 

Think he did kinda get rocked in last game he started though.

[AZTwin]

Would not shock me if he is top five.

I realize he's young and I'm not exactly a scout but he looks alright from the film I've seen. The one thing that concerned me was that his delivery seemed a bit long and like he would be easy to steal bases on

[King]

 

So, Brendan McKay has hit 3 HR's in the same game today..

 

 

Think he did kinda get rocked in last game he started though.

 

And he ended with 4.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW has his top 50 up .....

 

Greene

Wright

McKay

Royce Lewis

Buskauskas

Gore

 

Kendall down to 10, which is higher than I thought he'd put him. Beck at 12. Sam Carlson from MN is 15th, btw.

 

He is a bit down on the class, given how many of the guys that were top guys coming into the year have under performed.

[Mike Sixel]

Hunter Greene is done pitching for the year, btw.

[drjim]

I think I've come back around to Kyle Wright. Especially if they can get some savings for later picks.

 

His upside is really not that much lower than Greene, his floor is higher, and he would have a good chance to pitch in the bigs at some point in 2018.

[Willihammer]

Rooker has cooled a bit but went 2-4 with a double, home run, strikeout and 3 RBI in a 4-2 victory over Ole Miss yesterday.

 

Still batting .403/.505/.893, with 16 steals in 20 attempts as a first  baseman.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Rooker has cooled a bit but went 2-4 with a double, home run, strikeout and 3 RBI in a 4-2 victory over Ole Miss yesterday.

 

Still batting .403/.505/.893, with 16 steals in 20 attempts as a first  baseman.

 

Yeah, I'm just curious where he will land.  he's obviously not a top pick as we aren't hearing his name at all, but I'm wondering if he's more a 2nd/3rd round type guy. For the record, ABW was a 3rd rounder with the best power in the class, but it was his other issues that dropped him down.  Rooker doesn't have the contact concerns ABW has, and he's obviously got power.  Really curious where he will land.  I certainly wouldn't mind him with one of our picks.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, I'm just curious where he will land.  he's obviously not a top pick as we aren't hearing his name at all, but I'm wondering if he's more a 2nd/3rd round type guy. For the record, ABW was a 3rd rounder with the best power in the class, but it was his other issues that dropped him down.  Rooker doesn't have the contact concerns ABW has, and he's obviously got power.  Really curious where he will land.  I certainly wouldn't mind him with one of our picks.

 

Not in KLAW's top 50, btw.

[nicksaviking]

 

Not in KLAW's top 50, btw.

 

Interesting. I go back and forth whether he should be ranked 35th or 37th.

 

Definitely not 36th though.

 

 

[Willihammer]

 

Yeah, I'm just curious where he will land.  he's obviously not a top pick as we aren't hearing his name at all, but I'm wondering if he's more a 2nd/3rd round type guy. For the record, ABW was a 3rd rounder with the best power in the class, but it was his other issues that dropped him down.  Rooker doesn't have the contact concerns ABW has, and he's obviously got power.  Really curious where he will land.  I certainly wouldn't mind him with one of our picks.

Walker only had a 19.5% k-rate his junior year. Rooker is at 17.5%, down from 21.4% as a sophomore. You also need to keep in mind Rooker was redshirted so he's a bit old at 22.176 years. There is some swing and miss to his game, although his game-power is better anything Walker did. Rooker has .300 points of slg on Walker's junior season.

 

The guy I keep thinking of is Paul Goldschmidt, who had an 1.172 OPS his junior year combined with a 10.5% k-rate. He fell all the way to the 8th round. Goldschmidt also turned into a decent base stealer which is kinda what Rooker appears to be already.

 

I don't think Rooker falls very far. I'd bet he's gone by the time we select at 35.

[Hrbowski]

 

Interesting. I go back and forth whether he should be ranked 35th or 37th.

 

Definitely not 36th though.

I think we could get him in the 3rd round. I would much prefer Greg Deichmann if we were to take a college hitter.

[Bob Sacamento]

McKay gets the lefthanded comp version of Nola/Leake, meaning he's not a #1/2 but he'll be in the MLB within a year. Not exactly where I'd want to spend my first pick overall even if the return is pretty sure and quick.

 

JB Bukauskas getting the Stroman/Gray comps due to his size and doubters staying in the rotation the further he develops.  Without question he has the best slider in the draft getting grades in the 70-80's scale and matches with a strong fastball.  

 

Mac Gore's name is the hugest helium going right now went from obscurity to a potential Top 10 pick on the mound but being an athletic lefty SP will do that.  FB that can touch 97 but usually 91-93 mark, has been pitching on MLB rest this year getting acclimated to a pro level structure and still held his velo late into games. A good 12-6 hammer curveball and biting slider, alot to like about his game.  I'm just usually a little weary of helium high schoolers this late in the game but word is he was under more of a spotlight in North Carolina due to Bukauskas and fellow prep Austin Beck.

 

 I can't believe how much Austin Beck is getting talked about after tearing up his knee. 

 

Based on past drafts, the first round pick is slated to take home ~6.7M which in years past would have gave the Twins 3M to play with but after the new CBA rules they'll be lucky to net 1.2M in savings as the slot is 7.7M.

[InfraRen]

Callis saying he likes McKay more as a hitter, man I wouldn't want to pick a guy who's a good pitcher/good hitter #1. Go with the guy in Greene who could be a GREAT pitcher: