Article: The Twins Bullpen Is Set (And You’re Not Going To Love It)

[Danchat]

This bullpen is probably going to fall like a house of cards. It all depends on the development of guys like Chargois, Melotakis, Reed, Jay, and others in AA and AAA who could make an impact on 2017 and 2018. If a chunk of them can figure things out, then I'm not too worried about the future of the bullpen. But if the guys come up to the majors and look like 2016 Berrios, 2016 Pat Light, or Spring Training 2017 Chargois (having no ability to throw strikes or have any command/control), then I'm worried.

[Danchat]

 

Not a fan of keeping Tonkin, IMO he's always going to be more potential than results.  Don't know why we had to get Breslow either. O'Rourke can get lefties out.

To be fair, O'Rourke's hurt and will start the season on the DL. Not a fan of keeping Tonkin around either.

[jud6312]

Very little about this bullpen surprises me, and even less impresses me.

 

I can't wrap my head around continued for success for Kintzler due to his inability to miss bats.

 

Breslow hasn't been good for a while, Belisle has been OK the last few years, but late-30s pitchers scare me as they can drop off quickly.

 

Rogers = cool.

 

Pressly = cool.

 

Tonkin, I'm lukewarm on. If he can do something about giving up long balls at a Radkeian pace, and it'd be nice to see the inherited runs % drop some more. I do, however, like his arm and am hopeful that not being a de facto long man will help.

 

Haley? I don't think they would've really missed out on much by letting him go back to Boston, but is there anyone better and ready for that role right now?

 

I think this is going to be rough season on the mound.

[70charger]

 

It’s not difficult to justify each of these players having a spot in a major league bullpen.

 

Sure, singly. But a whole bullpen full of them?

 

Here's hoping for some short leashes and some continued success for the upside guys in the minors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I too would have liked more interesting options acquired this winter.

 

But not much more you could do with this group, right now.

 

Given their past usage of Tonkin, I don't think they will hesitate to drop him when a better option comes along, so that's good.  In the meantime, might as well roll with him again.

[twinstalker]

Weird title, as if we thought Andrew Miller might sneak in there.

 

The bullpen is the last place the Twins should be addressing right now.  Falvey and Levine are under no illusions about this team's chances.  They have a Herculean task of finding a pitching staff for an eventual contender, and I'm sure out of that, a few relievers will be found.  They also will have the full year to make those acquisitions a bad team can make (waiver claims, etc).

 

More interesting is the rotation, because Santana, Hughes, and Santiago will in no way be a part of the eventual contender.  So the questions are all about whether Gibson will show anything positive, and who among Berrios, Duffey, Mejia, Gonsalves (!), and Romero will be considered true rotation guys for that contender.  It will be a long wait for Hunter Greene, so who will emerge or be acquired in the meantime?

 

The relief is a question for one or two years from now.  If the Twins somehow blow our minds and contend this year, well, you can't spend your time and resources preparing for the flukey when there are so many important issues to address.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Weird title, as if we thought Andrew Miller might sneak in there.

 

The bullpen is the last place the Twins should be addressing right now.  Falvey and Levine are under no illusions about this team's chances.  They have a Herculean task of finding a pitching staff for an eventual contender, and I'm sure out of that, a few relievers will be found.  They also will have the full year to make those acquisitions a bad team can make (waiver claims, etc).

 

More interesting is the rotation, because Santana, Hughes, and Santiago will in no way be a part of the eventual contender.  So the questions are all about whether Gibson will show anything positive, and who among Berrios, Duffey, Mejia, Gonsalves (!), and Romero will be considered true rotation guys for that contender.  It will be a long wait for Hunter Greene, so who will emerge or be acquired in the meantime?

 

The relief is a question for one or two years from now.  If the Twins somehow blow our minds and contend this year, well, you can't spend your time and resources preparing for the flukey when there are so many important issues to address.

 

A team can work on the bullpen and the rotation and hitters all at the same time. This thread is about the bullpen

[Brandon Warne]

 

Ugh, why are we rolling with 30 somethings in the bullpen when we wont contend? Wimmers, shaggy and mejia should be on this team, but I'm guessing Duffey will be the 5th starter and we'll keep DanSan

 

Wimmers is 28 and far from a high-ceiling guy. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

I actually kinda like Kintzler as closer. Out of 135 qualified relievers, he ranked 4th in BB% and 9th in GB% last season. A good amount of the time, you're just asking him to get three outs before he gives up three runs anyway. Looks like he entered the game with a three-run lead in eight of the 17 games he got saves in last year.

 

My bigger concern is getting to the save situations in the first place. Who's the shutdown guy you can turn to to get a key strikeout with runners on in the 6th/7th/8th innings to keep the game in reach? Pressly, I guess? Will be interesting to see how things shake out. 

 

I want a guy like that putting out fires in the sixth, not creating them in the ninth. 

[DaveW]

New FO

Same stupid mind boggling decisions.

 

I fear this will never chane until the Pohlads sell.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Three Rule 5 relievers have already been returned. Any of them more interesting than Tonkin or Haley?

 

Caleb Smith: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=smith-005cal

 

Tyler Jones (former Twin!): http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=jones-002tyl

 

Hoby Milner: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=milner001hob

 

Jones is actually slightly older than Tonkin...

[Vanimal46]

 

A team can work on the bullpen and the rotation and hitters all at the same time. This thread is about the bullpen

 

Yep. In fact, the bullpen is one of the easiest groups to patch together on a baseball team. There really hasn't been any excuse for the last 3 years. 

[twinstalker]

 

I too would have liked more interesting options acquired this winter.

 

But not much more you could do with this group, right now.

 

Given their past usage of Tonkin, I don't think they will hesitate to drop him when a better option comes along, so that's good.  In the meantime, might as well roll with him again.

 

I will raise my hand if someone asks who thinks Tonkin's been given enough rope.  I doubt  any "wow" reliever gets cut, so Tonkin basically gets one more chance to prove he belongs.  When he fails this last time, and a better option comes along, I would expect Tonkin to be a Cincinnati Red via waiver claim. Or, if the AL gets first shot, I would expect Tonkin to be a Cincinnati Red via waiver claim  (okay, maybe the Whities, A's or Angels give him a shot).

[bird]

 

I'm not giving them a pass. I question the Chargois move, for sure... but what bothers me the most was the acquisition of Belisle and Breslow, really.

 

Just go get a decent reliever and pay a few bucks. Big deal, this payroll is too low anyway. No $12m contract over two years is going to hurt this team in any meaningful fashion. Nick's latest article sold me a bit on the Breslow deal, though. Really good info in that piece but more could have been done with the bullpen and it wouldn't cost much to do it.

 

There was enough room in the pen to fit a decent reliever, a mediocre vet, and a young guy.

 

This is my one criticism of the new FO regarding the off-season. A sad carryover, but I hold hope it's a one-off phenomenon unlike the previous FO.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is my one criticism of the new FO regarding the off-season. A sad carryover, but I hold hope it's a one-off phenomenon unlike the previous FO.

 

we all hope that.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I've posted this before. Let's say you walk into a bar mid-conversation. You hear "He's a decent reliever that throws hard." Would you narrow that down to Tonkin? Or is that describing 7 other relievers available in the minors?

You think relievers with Tonkin's minor-league numbers, and a 10 K/9 rate over a full big-league season, grow on trees? 

 

And you're telling me that if he were to end up somewhere else on waivers, turning into the quality setup man that both his AAA numbers and MLB K/BB suggest is possible, you're not going to be wringing your hands about the Twins letting him go because they favored Alex Wimmers?

 

 

I actually kinda like Kintzler as closer. Out of 135 qualified relievers, he ranked 4th in BB% and 9th in GB% last season. A good amount of the time, you're just asking him to get three outs before he gives up three runs anyway. Looks like he entered the game with a three-run lead in eight of the 17 games he got saves in last year.

Problem is that he's not often going to get a three-run lead, especially considering that this is the Twins. More often he'll be trying to guard a one or two run lead, and in those situations a few grounders with eyes can erase that lead in a hurry, by no real fault of his own.

You need K's in the 9th. Kintzler is a much better fit as a middle reliever, particularly since his efficiency makes him a good candidate to handle multiple frames.

[Jham]

I didn't think we had much choice. I'm not sure we have ant young arms good enough and certainly not deserving enough to break with. Other than maybe Mejia/Duffy who they want to stat, and Chargois maybe. If Jay is ready, I'd like to project his service time anyway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would expect Tonkin to be a Cincinnati Red via waiver claim. Or, if the AL gets first shot, I would expect Tonkin to be a Cincinnati Red via waiver claim  (okay, maybe the Whities, A's or Angels give him a shot).

FYI, league is only the top priority for August trade waiver claims.  For outright assignment/release waiver claims, the first priority is record regardless of league.

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3525

[Vanimal46]

 

You think relievers with Tonkin's minor-league numbers, and a 10 K/9 rate over a full big-league season, grow on trees? 

 

And you're telling me that if he were to end up somewhere else on waivers, turning into the quality setup man that both his AAA numbers and MLB K/BB suggest is possible, you're not going to be wringing your hands about the Twins letting him go because they favored Alex Wimmers?

 

Yep. I think there's already a few of them down in the minors right now. 

 

Tonkin minor league career K/9 - 9.3

Melotakis - 8.6

Nick Burdi - 12.6

Jake Reed - 8.78

Jay - 8.7

 

All of them can be described as decent relievers that throw hard.

 

To answer your second paragraph.... No. Wouldn't wring my hands over Tonkin having a good season elsewhere. I know you've been a Tonkin apologist for a long time. He's a typical middle relief pitcher.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

While looking at reliever stats, I noticed Minnesota native Brad Hand had a pretty good relief season with the Padres last year.  He was claimed off waivers from the Marlins last April.

 

Off the top of my head, Will Harris was an Astros waiver claim from the 2014-2015 offseason and has turned out pretty good too.

 

Hopefully the Twins can make some good claims in the next month (and hopefully they have the lowest waiver priority in the league after that ).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yep. I think there's already a few of them down in the minors right now. 

 

Tonkin minor league career K/9 - 9.3

Melotakis - 8.6

Nick Burdi - 12.6

Jake Reed - 8.78

Jay - 8.7

 

All of them can be described as decent relievers that throw hard.

 

To answer your second paragraph.... No. Wouldn't wring my hands over Tonkin having a good season elsewhere. I know you've been a Tonkin apologist for a long time. He's a typical middle relief pitcher.  

I wouldn't quite put Tonkin in that group today.  Beyond K rate, he's actually dominated in the high minors and shown signs of success in MLB too.  And not necessarily because he's older -- he first reached AAA and MLB at age 23, although he's hung around now for a few years.

 

He's obviously not a sure thing, but I think he clearly deserves one more chance over the alternatives available today.  Even if reliever moves are by definition pretty low-margin, I would have been upset had we cut him today in favor of Wimmers.

[Vanimal46]

 

I wouldn't quite put Tonkin in that group today.  Beyond K rate, he's actually dominated in the high minors and shown signs of success in MLB too.  And not necessarily because he's older -- he first reached AAA and MLB at age 23, although he's hung around now for a few years.

 

He's obviously not a sure thing, but I think he clearly deserves one more chance over the alternatives available today.  Even if reliever moves are by definition pretty low-margin, I would have been upset had we cut him today in favor of Wimmers.

 

Must have missed that success in between the moon shots from his off-speed pitches. If others will feel better looking at Tonkin for another 2 months before deciding to pull the plug, that's fine. I jumped off the bandwagon about 15 miles ago. 

[grant171]

 

Justin Haley looks like a bright spot this spring. He's big, strong, young, works fast, downward plane, stays around the zone, live arm. If Haley takes the long man role from Tonkin, that allows Tonkin to work more as a setup guy, keeping his arm fresher. 

 

Otherwise, the only reason I see to start the season with a back end of older veterans is if the Twins aim to replace them in coming months with guys like Chargois, Wimmers and whoever gets hot in Rochester or Chattanooga. 

 

Speaking of AAA and AA, take a look at their pitching rosters. Whew, there's a lot of young arm talent bubbling up! I didn't realize all these guys were now in AA...

Seven youngest pitchers on the Lookouts:

 

Fernando Romero 
Kohl Stewart 
Stephen Gonsalves
Randy Rosario
Tyler Jay
Felix Jorge
Nick Burdi

 

That's half a future pitching staff right there. Then combine that with these guys...

Four youngest pitchers on the Red Wings:

 

Jose Berrios 
Jake Reed
Mason Melotakis
J.T. Chargois

 

The future looks pretty good.

More or less my thoughts.  Bullpen should be the last piece of roster construction.  As long as they are trotting out Ervin Santana and a bunch of 4/5s to start, there is no point to spending money on a bullpen.  Figure out the starting rotation, let some of the young bullpen arms come up over the next year or two when they are ready, and fill in the gaps via trade/free agency down the road.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Must have missed that success in between the moon shots from his off-speed pitches. If others will feel better looking at Tonkin for another 2 months before deciding to pull the plug, that's fine. I jumped off the bandwagon about 15 miles ago. 

10 K/9 over a full MLB season, versus only 3 BB/9, is a sign of success.  If Chargois or one of the relievers you listed had already done that, I'd probably want them on the roster too.

 

Is there a better alternative than Tonkin to plug in today?  Surely not Wimmers.  Probably not quite Chargois yet either.  I could have gotten behind a theoretical winter acquisition taking his spot, but today I just don't see one in the org.  No point in flushing that away today for no good reason.

[DaveW]

Tonkin much like slowey before him is the quintessential AAAA pitcher.

 

It's time for the Twins to move on.

[DaveW]

10 K/9 over a full MLB season, versus only 3 BB/9, is a sign of success. If Chargois or one of the relievers you listed had already done that, I'd probably want them on the roster too.

 

Is there a better alternative than Tonkin to plug in today? Surely not Wimmers. Probably not quite Chargois yet either. I could have gotten behind a theoretical winter acquisition taking his spot, but today I just don't see one in the org. No point in flushing that away today for no good reason.

5.02 ERA

1.63 hr/9

1.45 whip

10 h/9

 

Are bigger signs of failure imo.

[Mike Sixel]

I have a bit of hope for Tonkin, if he's used in 1 inning bursts....call me naive and overly hopeful, but I do.

[wsnydes]

 

I have a bit of hope for Tonkin, if he's used in 1 inning bursts....call me naive and overly hopeful, but I do.

This is where I sit too, but I'm not going to give him much rope.  I want to see early results and move on quickly if its just more of the same.

[Twinfan & Dad]

I will give the new FO a pass on this one. You can't make a good chicken salad if you are starting with chicken sh##. The young guys weren't quite ready and until we show improvement What vet wants to sign with us. This bullpen will be totally turned over by the mid season mark. I am hopeful that the new FO is looking at this with the approach of evaluate as we go and then make the harder decisions. Our young guys aren't quite ready but they will be solid.

Edited March 29, 2017 by Twinfan & Dad

[Tom Froemming]

 

Problem is that he's not often going to get a three-run lead, especially considering that this is the Twins. More often he'll be trying to guard a one or two run lead, and in those situations a few grounders with eyes can erase that lead in a hurry, by no real fault of his own.

You need K's in the 9th. Kintzler is a much better fit as a middle reliever, particularly since his efficiency makes him a good candidate to handle multiple frames.

I get what you're saying, but it seems like most of the time closers don't throw in as many close games as top setup men. The following rant has more to do with closing in general than Kintzler/the Twins.

 

Consider these usage numbers from the Orioles bullpen in close games last year.

 

Percentage of games entered with the score either tied or within one run
46.5% Brad Brach (33/71)
43.9% Mychal Givens (29/66)
34.8% Zach Britton (24/69)

 

And just for fun, a couple other data points on the best setup man and the guy who led the league in saves ...

50.7% Dellin Betances (37/73)

35.9% Jeurys Familia (28/78)

Looks like 11 of Britton's 47 saves and 14 of Familia's 51 came when they entered with a three-run lead. No offense to relievers, but Eduardo Escobar should be able to get three outs before he gives up three runs more often than not.

 

Britton had maybe the greatest season a relief pitcher has ever put together, but since he had the limitations of the closer role put on him, there were multiple other relievers even on his own team who threw more high-pressure innings.

 

I know calling the closer role stupid at this point isn't very controversial, but I also don't think it's going anywhere. So my argument is I want the closer on my team to be the second or maybe even third best guy in the bullpen, freeing up my studs to come in for the most high-stress situations, no matter the inning.

 

So the reason why I like Kintzler as closer on the Twins right now isn't because I think he's their best reliever. Actually, it's the complete opposite.