Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[jimmer]

 

They are gambling on Hughes recovering to what he once was, Santiago pitching closer to his career averages pre 2016, May stepping back into the rotation and pitching effectively, Berrios taking off and never looking back, Duffey developing his changeup, etc. Meija as backup.

Is Hughes recovering to what he once was a good thing? Do we believe May is actually going to get a real shot?

[darin617]

 

So, if we don't trade Dozier for pitching, how are we improving our rotation? 

 

Jason Castro will improve the rotation being able to actually frame a pitch.

[Rosterman]

Dozier is good. But is he that good. Is he the home run king. Maybe he';ll hit 50. And his remaining salry is not too bad of an undertaking. It's what to do beyond that, and if he does shine more, he becomes more expensive. If he doesn't shine, he ages and becomes...an aging Trevor Plouffe.

 

Face it, NO ONE REALLY NEEDS a second baseman this year...like they didn't need a third baseman last year. Somehow, clubs seem set on these position (even including the Twins at this point).

 

And the Twins need future building blocks for the rotation? Hopefully 2-3 names come up from the minors before the end of 2018. Hopefully their #1 draft pick is someone who will be fast-tracked to the majors and be the stopper they need. 

 

It is time to see where the new administration is going to go with the club. Right now, they seem to be treading water, seeing what they do have at the major and upper levels of the minors, figuring out who is being taught. They need spring training, maybe half-a-season to see who does keep their jobs and what direction the franchise has to take.

 

I'm not seeing many money grabs in the minor league free agent market (guys you can flip for a 41st man prospect) and basically they have to see how the sophs do as well as the up-and-cmers in the minors to see if they do have any tradebait now or the near future.

 

They need to hope the fan base supports the team enough so the money is there to buy a player or three in the next few years.

 

They need to draft correctly.

 

Right now, Dozier and Polanco is better than Polanco and Escobar. We have hopes for Gordon, and then pushing Polanco (if he works out) towards second in a couple of seasons at the most.

 

Dozier needs to stay healthy and needs to produce to keep his own worth up.  He does have a free year, here. If he does good, it is for the team. If he does badly, he can still redeem himself in 2018 and get the BIG contract. 

 

But that is part of the problem, today, determining his worth. How much do you pay for a guy for two seasons. Do you believe enough in the acquisition that ou look at him as a three-year deal or even five-year-deal guy.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It should be.  Along with a lot of other probabilities about the future.  We're trying to build a winner and that's going to require risk taking on upside.

 

They'll have ample time, if they fail here, to show that it wasn't on them.  I can still judge the non-trade of Dozier as a failure for this offseason.  To me, it is the number one priority by a mile.

I disagree but that's fair.

[Rhino and Compass]

The real disappointment if this deal falls through is that we will have to find another forum to meet in, instead of refreshing this one

[dougd]

Whatever happens with the trade, has anyone been able to figure out how to monetize our  new interest in the Dodger farm system the next couple years? 

 

It has been fun to see Dodger fans' commentary.

[beckmt]

Twins have many starters who have already reached AA.  While I believe we should trade Dozier, we have been taken before when the Dodger head was at TB, so I agree on caution is needed.  Without knowing the offer are any of the players offered better than what the Twins had at AA ball this past season. 

Maybe more of a change in philosophy is needed in teaching pitching here then to give our best asset away for suspects. 

Coast writers are great at using the media and their contacts to build up prospects in their clubs farm systems to help with this type of trade.  I believe that F/V are justified in looking for multiple tickets as many of the prospects(especially pitchers) do not work out.  The fact that De Leon is being offered shows what the Dodger brass thinks of him.

[rossrarelytalks]

 

Whatever happens with the trade, has anyone been able to figure out how to monetize our  new interest in the Dodger farm system the next couple years? 

 

It has been fun to see Dodger fans' commentary.

It's cool to talk to other team's fans and get a feel for what you're thinking. We all tend to overvalue our assets (unless we really hate somebody who caused us all kinds of pain, in which case it's the opposite!)

 

In my opinion, the general vibe here from Twins fans is tending toward undervaluing some of the Dodger prospects. Note -- I said tending! I can see how there may be concern about De Leon, but he's a highly ranked guy on most lists, and his MLB stats last year are too small to be relevant. He is a very good prospect. As I've said before, I'd be shocked if Bellinger and Alvarez are on the table. So as far as top guys, that leaves people like Buehler, Stewart, Verdugo, Calhoun, and then on to probably Sheffield, Lux, Diaz, De Jong, Sborz. Or similar -- there are probably a few others in that range.

 

For me, Buehler would be off the table -- but I'm personally really high on him. Anybody else, in some combo, wouldn't be. You may be undervaluing Verdugo, especially -- he has a very, very high upside, with great feel for hitting and contact, and a solid defensive profile including a plus arm (although maybe you don't need him, which is fair). I would HATE to lose him. Calhoun also should be a hitting machine, and the possibility of being a DH definitely works in his favor, as he is clearly not a good defender. Offensively, though, he profiles very well. Sheffield, Diaz (again, the position player issue), Stewart all with pretty high upside, too.

 

I find this whole thing interesting. Obviously the Dodgers are playing hardball, knowing there just isn't that much interest. But we can definitely use Dozier, so I'd be really surprised if they weren't at least making what they think are fair offers, as opposed to lowballing. I'm guessing the optics from the new Twins FO make this hard -- they want a player that screams potential, and may not feel that what the Dodgers are pushing gets them there. Or so it would seem. Dozier for De Leon, Verdugo, and Sheffield? That's a good haul from where I sit. I really like all three of those guys. But I get it if you're underwhelmed. Baseball fans!

 

Very interesting.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Twins have many starters who have already reached AA.  While I believe we should trade Dozier, we have been taken before when the Dodger head was at TB, so I agree on caution is needed.  Without knowing the offer are any of the players offered better than what the Twins had at AA ball this past season. 

Maybe more of a change in philosophy is needed in teaching pitching here then to give our best asset away for suspects. 

Coast writers are great at using the media and their contacts to build up prospects in their clubs farm systems to help with this type of trade.  I believe that F/V are justified in looking for multiple tickets as many of the prospects(especially pitchers) do not work out.  The fact that De Leon is being offered shows what the Dodger brass thinks of him.

I was with you until the last sentence. I think the Dodgers know he could be very good, and certainly good enough to land a guy like Dozier in a trade. The Dodgers just don't have room for De Leon in the rotation in the short run and they don't see the utility in stashing him in the minors or bullpen the next year or two when he's ready for his best shot right now, is my best guess.

[Oxtung]

One thing that has me worried about all these discussions, with fans and the reports about the FO conversations, is the availability of De Leon. Dodger fans have continuously stated that their FO has repeatedly turned down trades that involved their top prospects, Urias and Seager. In addition the theory is Bellinger, Alvarez and Buehler (again according to Dodgers fans) are all off limits. 

 

De Leon is considerably closer to the majors than either Alvarez or Buehler. Buehler's best projections seem to be De Leon. As for Bellinger, well pitching is harder to find than a first baseman.

 

I guess I'm just worried that when an organization that seemingly values prospects as much as the Dodgers do suddenly declares their top pitching prospect (or second if you consider Urias still a prospect) available.... what don't we know?

[DJSim22]

I still wonder if the Braves and Twins ever had some meaningful conversations.  The news of Phillips nixing a trade to the Braves makes me wonder.  That an I'm getting bored of the Dodgers offers.

[CiabanItReal]

 

One thing that has me worried about all these discussions, with fans and the reports about the FO conversations, is the availability of De Leon. Dodger fans have continuously stated that their FO has repeatedly turned down trades that involved their top prospects, Urias and Seager. In addition the theory is Bellinger, Alvarez and Buehler (again according to Dodgers fans) are all off limits. 

 

De Leon is considerably closer to the majors than either Alvarez or Buehler. Buehler's best projections seem to be De Leon. As for Bellinger, well pitching is harder to find than a first baseman.

 

I guess I'm just worried that when an organization that seemingly values prospects as much as the Dodgers do suddenly declares their top pitching prospect (or second if you consider Urias still a prospect) available.... what don't we know?

Urias and Seager are a step above DeLeon, they traded a former first round pick in Grant Holmes who was pitching well last year when he was dealt. They don't seem totally adverse to trading prospects, but guys who they recently acquired like Buehler, or guys they think can be transformative players like Alverez and Bellinger, they don't want to give them up.

 

As far as some of the guys they've offered up or haven't, I think they knew they'd have to be willing to give the twins something as good as DeLeon to get back a piece as valuable as Dozier, and they could be higher on Bellinger than prospect sites, plus he fits an immediate need they have.

Apperently Buehler is throwing harder than he did in college, and his stuff looks really crisp.

[HitInAPinch]

 

So, if we don't trade Dozier, how are we improving our rotation?  Just keep drafting and hoping for the best?

 

Some believe Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler and Polanco are our core.  We don't think getting quality pitching that will help now and in the near future is a good idea while these guys go into their 2nd and 3rd seasons?

 

Risk aversion is one of the reasons we are where we are now as is holding on to veterans and getting nothing when they leave.  Holding onto Dozier, who will be gone after two seasons, is certainly the safe thing for us to do while we continue to rack up 90+ loss seasons, but I'd rather the FO take some chances.  

 

Trading Dozier for players who might bust sure is a taking a chance.  For me, a necessary chance.

 

Keeping Dozier, for fear of the prospects busting, and then seeing him go in two years, is a lot less risky...and IMO, is bad management.  Keeping Dozier does nothing for our future.

I agree.  100%, even!   

 

That whole "Risk aversion" was shattered with the hiring of Falvey and Levine.  Both came from organizations that had to build a team.  OK, OK, Texas to a lessor extent.  Lot's 'o old money there.  It remains to be seen if Jim Pohlad will OK the money.  With his choices for new leadership, I'm somewhat confident he's on-board.  

 

I'm fairly confident that the "core" you mention has a good looking future.  If they keep developing and a trade of Dozier for pitching is completed, I see at least a start of a new future.  Even a bright one.

 

Now excuse me.  If off for my morning "Kool Aid".       

[shs_59]

I'm fully in belief at this point, that Dozier is going nowhere, and EVEN if he is or does end up getting dealt, Its going to be a "sneaky' club

 

Like The Braves or even maybe the Royals that get him.

 

Angels, Nationals? ect.

 

I think the Braves would throw out one of RHPs Matt Wisler or Aaron Blair which is a nice #3 or #4 starter..... already in the majors

 

as well as LHP prospect Sean Newcomb and probably one hitting prospect at least around C+ range.

 

thats 3 total pieces that trumps the LA Dodgers. De Leon + .....i'm sure Braves would be  willing on that > than anything the Dodgers are willing to trade at this point.

 

 

I'm all for keeping Dozier letting him do his thing and then maybe re-visiting X (scenerio at the trade deadline in July)

 

[Oxtung]

Urias and Seager are a step above DeLeon, they traded a former first round pick in Grant Holmes who was pitching well last year when he was dealt. They don't seem totally adverse to trading prospects, but guys who they recently acquired like Buehler, or guys they think can be transformative players like Alverez and Bellinger, they don't want to give them up.

 

As far as some of the guys they've offered up or haven't, I think they knew they'd have to be willing to give the twins something as good as DeLeon to get back a piece as valuable as Dozier, and they could be higher on Bellinger than prospect sites, plus he fits an immediate need they have.

Apperently Buehler is throwing harder than he did in college, and his stuff looks really crisp.

The Dodgers just signed Rich Hill so pitching is clearly an immediate need as well but instead there they chose to go get a FA instead of handing the reigns over to a 24 year old who already has innings under his belt. Out of all the Dodgers "premium" prospects why is he available?

[USAFChief]

 

So, if we don't trade Dozier for pitching, how are we improving our rotation? 

That's an excellent question.  I'll be disappointed if they haven't taken any action to improve the pitching prior to opening day.

 

But I was happy with the hiring of new leadership, and I'm going to give them some time.  One thing I'm absolutely positive about is this:  while trading Dozier seems like one obvious way to try to get improved pitching on this team, it's not the only way.  

 

If it's the only way, then that, to me, makes it even MORE imperative they get a fantastic deal.  Because if it's the ONLY way, and a trade is a failure, then by definition we are doomed.  Forever.  

 

 

[Trueblue222]

The Dodgers just signed Rich Hill so pitching is clearly an immediate need as well but instead there they chose to go get a FA instead of handing the reigns over to a 24 year old who already has innings under his belt. Out of all the Dodgers "premium" prospects why is he available?

Deleon is available because as a contending team use don't want 2 rookies in your 5 man rotation. Therefore making one of two available to upgrade an area of weakness. If they didn't have Urias, they wouldn't be willing to trade DeLeon

[laloesch]

 

The Dodgers just signed Rich Hill so pitching is clearly an immediate need as well but instead there they chose to go get a FA instead of handing the reigns over to a 24 year old who already has innings under his belt. Out of all the Dodgers "premium" prospects why is he available?

 

Because he's had health issues and doesn't project as a top of the rotation starter more like #3 or #4 at best.

[laloesch]

 

That's an excellent question.  I'll be disappointed if they haven't taken any action to improve the pitching prior to opening day.

 

But I was happy with the hiring of new leadership, and I'm going to give them some time.  One thing I'm absolutely positive about is this:  while trading Dozier seems like one obvious way to try to get improved pitching on this team, it's not the only way.  

 

If it's the only way, then that, to me, makes it even MORE imperative they get a fantastic deal.  Because if it's the ONLY way, and a trade is a failure, then by definition we are doomed.  Forever.  

 

I think the Twins are content with what they have right now which is a mistake in my opinion.  Sure they would like to upgrade the rotation but it appears to be that they clearly think / have high hopes that Hughes, Gibson and Duffey all rebound dramatically this season and Santana picks up right where he left off despite being 34.  Then you have the wild cards in May, Berrios & Meija.  They have to do better this season, right?

 

Trading Dozier to the Dodgers would have happened if they were willing to give up more than just JDL and junk.  The Dodgers know they were the only suitor for Brian and have consistently low balled I think.  I don't blame the FO for not going through with it.  That said, if the offer EVER included Alvarez and JDL in the same package (which i doubt), I would consider it a failure on the Twins part to not accept such a deal even if the third piece was AAAA filler or a low level wild card.

[Squirrel]

I think the Twins are content with what they have right now which is a mistake in my opinion.  Sure they would like to upgrade the rotation but it appears to be that they clearly think / high hopes that Hughes, Gibson and Duffey all rebound dramatically this season and that Santana picks up right where he left off despite being 34.  Then you have the wild cards in May, Berrios & Meija.  They have to do better this season, right?

I don't think they are content with what they have or they wouldn't be discussing trading Dozier at all.

[nicksaviking]

I'm just hopeful that if a deal does not occur, there is enough disappointment from Dodger media and fans that the team leaks what it was offering. If the leaked offer was less than honest I'd hope the Twins then leak their version of what was offered.

[Doomtints]

 

In my opinion, the general vibe here from Twins fans is tending toward undervaluing some of the Dodger prospects. Note -- I said tending! I can see how there may be concern about De Leon, but he's a highly ranked guy on most lists, and his MLB stats last year are too small to be relevant. He is a very good prospect. As I've said before, I'd be shocked if Bellinger and Alvarez are on the table. So as far as top guys, that leaves people like Buehler, Stewart, Verdugo, Calhoun, and then on to probably Sheffield, Lux, Diaz, De Jong, Sborz. Or similar -- there are probably a few others in that range.

 

There is no universe where any team ever trades off a prospect like Bellinger.  There is no way the Twins even bothered to ask for him.  

 

Alvarez, a future elite closer, is no doubt not on the table either.

[USAFChief]

 

There is no universe where any team ever trades off a prospect like Bellinger.  There is no way the Twins even bothered to ask for him.  

 

Alvarez, a future elite closer, is no doubt not on the table either.

Yoan Moncada says hi.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm just hopeful that if a deal does not occur, there is enough disappointment from Dodger media and fans that the team leaks what it was offering. If the leaked offer was less than honest I'd hope the Twins then leak their version of what was offered.

Well, if we ignore Dave, the national media has reported a few things, fairly consistently.  1) De Leon is the center of any package. 2) The Dodgers will not include Alvarez, Bellinger, Urias.  3) Dodgers are being stingy or overvaluing their prospects w/some writers claiming a 1:1 swap while others insinuating that it's De Leon + minor pieces.  4) Klaw has said he would not keep Verdugo off the table and Dave Cameron has said De Leon and Calhoun would be too much.

 

I'm not sure if we've seen a lot of reports about Brock Stewart's potential availability but Dodger fans here have told us that he'd be too much to give up along with De Leon.  

[gunnarthor]

I'm not bothered by the Dodgers offering De Leon as a sign that he's broken (although the Twins should obviously check his physical).  He's just not at the Buxton/Sano level but the level below - the Berrios/Kepler level.  Urias and Seager were obviously at the Buxton/Sano level.  

[Lonestar]

De Leon is considerably closer to the majors than either Alvarez or Buehler. Buehler's best projections seem to be De Leon. As for Bellinger, well pitching is harder to find than a first baseman.

Buehler throws harder than JDL. He throws two plus pitches (FB and Curve). According to Longenhagen, his cutter/slider projects to be plus. His change-up has the potential to be average or above. His best projections are above JDL's. Then again, he's undersized, already had TJS, and only pitched 5 innings at A or rookie ball last year. Would you feel better if the Dodgers offered him instead of JDL.

 

It's hard to find a first baseman whose hitting (slugging) project as well as Bellinger and whose fielding is rated 70, especially one who has position versatility. the Dodgers as well as the Twins will have openings at 1B in two years. The difference is that the Twins will have Sano. KLaw for one said the Dodgers should not offer Bellinger or Verdugo. On the other hand, it sounds like you would prefer a pitcher to a 1B.

[laloesch]

 

There is no universe where any team ever trades off a prospect like Bellinger.  There is no way the Twins even bothered to ask for him.  

 

Alvarez, a future elite closer, is no doubt not on the table either.

 

I think the Dodger are jumping the gun on Bellinger.  He's only played 3 games at the AAA level.  Pretty big jump from AA to AAA but i understand their enthusiasm in him to this point. 

[Trueblue222]

The reason Bellinger is off limits is a combination of his prospect status and their need for a 1B in the near future. It's very simple. The Dodgers are trying to improve by trading from an area of strength and depth(pitching).

[gunnarthor]

 

I think the Dodger are jumping the gun on Bellinger.  He's only played 3 games at the AAA level.  Pretty big jump from AA to AAA but i understand their enthusiasm in him to this point. 

Nah, Bellinger's a stud.  He's probably close to where Kepler was after his breakout 2015 season.  Bellinger made it to AAA at 20.  That's pretty impressive.  He dominated AA at the same age and, while his walk/K ratio wasn't quite as impressive as Kepler's, he showed more power and better defense.  If I was the Dodgers, I wouldn't give up Bellinger in a trade where I already gave up De Leon.  And De Leon is a much better fit for the Twins needs anyway.  Twins should be all about getting arms back for Dozier, not bats.

[Kwak]

I agree with "others"--the mentioned "Dodger deal" is dead. It makes more sense to look at teams where the addition of Dozier would be more useful than at LA, example: KC. Rather than seeking near ML-ready pitching, the Twins should accept younger prospects. "A" ball and lower--and not just pitchers! Any Catcher prospect at KC is probably blocked for 3-5 years, likely at other positions also.

 

Then, there are other teams... . Seeking youth probably increase the probability of a successful trade.