Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Rhino and Compass]

It's very frustrating that the Twins have a player that has an historic season, has a good contract and all before a massive seller's market the following offseason, but it turns out he plays the one position that only 1 contender has a hole. If nothing happens, I'll be upset about the misfortune of such a tepid market when every other factor lined up in the Twins' favor.

[markos]

 

It's very frustrating that the Twins have a player that has an historic season, has a good contract and all before a massive seller's market the following offseason, but it turns out he plays the one position that only 1 contender has a hole. If nothing happens, I'll be upset about the misfortune of such a tepid market when every other factor lined up in the Twins' favor.

And the one contender happens to be extremely stingy with their prospects. Instead of the Dodgers, if they were dealing with the Giants/Rangers/Red Sox/Nats, a good deal would get done.

[DaveW]

DeLeon and Alvarez are still on the table, however it's not crazy to see why the Twins would NOT include that piece in the spin job to Neal. Now when they ultimately accept DeLeon+Alvarez+AAAA type for Dozier they can make the claim that "The Dodgers blinked first" when in reality that deal was on the table the whole time and essentially it were the Twins who "blinked first"

I get why the Twins are doing that, it's Falv and co. first big move, so it's important that they have a strong perception out of the gate.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would add to this that De Leon appears to have only one great pitch (change up).  He has an average fastball with a hittable slider.  Maybe it is possible that he turns himself into a Kyle Hendricks.  He would probably need to develop an additional pitch.  He profiles more like a #3 starter with some upside and question marks on durability.   Personally, I think if De Leon is the center piece of a Dozier trade, the Twins should pass.

 

And do what, to get better? 

[Obsvr]

 

I can't imagine there is an actual deadline. Just because Lavelle Neal wrote it in a column doesn't make it true.

I would think that as a front office staff, you have quite a few people working on aspects the trade.  Especially if they are vetting multiple farm systems. At a certain point, you probably have to have focus those resources on projects for the upcoming year.  

 

Would they listen to a different offer in February?  Of course...but I think it makes sense to tell other teams that we're done dickering with this thing for now and it won't be the operational focus moving forward.  They've clearly laid out what the asking price is, meet it or move on.

[puddle]

 

I think that the Surplus Value framework is more or less correct for valuing players, but I think that the specifics currently used by the larger sabermetric community are limited, and possibly incorrect.

 

First, there is an assumption of unlimited roster spots, infinite playing time and perfect liquidity, and therefore players that are below average but above replacement level have significant surplus value when they are cheap. In a certain sense, it is definitely true that cheap, non-terrible players have value. But I'm not remotely convinced that it scales linearly with WAR, and that role-players and superstars can be plugged into the same formula. At the extremes this is very obvious, as everyone realizes that your favorite team can't package together 6 B prospect and expect the Angels to agree to give them Mike Trout, even if the Surplus Value calculations line up. But the Surplus Value framework doesn't build in any quality-vs-quantity tradeoff, so it is hard to know how to adjust the numbers for low-ceiling players. In addition, baseball players aren't super liquid assets, so there are significant transaction costs associated with converting surplus value into an asset that will actually help the team. In particular, a good team (90+ wins) basically needs its top (by playing time) 20 players to average 2 WAR per player. If one of those players is a 1 WAR talent (like, for example, Stewart), then someone else on the roster needs to be 3+ WAR to make up the difference.

 

Second, if the Surplus Value implementation is correct, then one should be able to demonstrate that empirically. But in reality, the opposite is true. I've tracked roughly two dozen MLBer-for-prospect trades over the past three years. Using PECOTA, KATOH, The Point of Pittsburgh tables, and my own best guesses to fill in the projected values, over and over again the Surplus Value of the prospect side vastly exceeds that of the MLBer side. Generally speaking, the prospect Surplus Value is usually 150% to 200% of the MLBer Surplus Value. Examples of position players:

Zobrist/Escobar to OAK - $40M vs $65M

Zobrist to KC - $7M vs $30M

Cespedes to NYM - $15M vs $30M

Kendrick to LAD - $18M vs $30M

Frazier to CWS - $31M vs $70M

Upton to SDP - $17M vs $70M

Myers to SDP - $81M vs $172M

Lucroy to TEX - $50M vs $75M

Gomez to HOU - $50M vs $100M

 

Two significant exceptions:

Donaldson to TOR - $85M vs $66M

Simmons to ATL - $60M vs $15M  // Maybe teams don't value defense?

 

One even:

Eaton to WAS - $100M vs $90M (using KATOH) or $110M (using TPOP table)

 

Two hypotheses

1) Teams value prospects for their future WAA rather than their future WAR

2) The 8% discount rate on future WAR used by TPOP and others is grossly incorrect, and a more appropriate value is something like 40%.

 

So even we agree that Dozier has roughly $50M in surplus value, I think past trades indicate that he is worth something like $75M to $100M in prospects. Someone who is super optimistic about De Leon and Stewart could agree that they get close to the $75M number. But if one isn't (and using your numbers, maybe we shouldn't be), then it seems completely reasonable to want another significant piece in the trade.

This is a good response.

 

It seems reasonable for the Twins to be holding out for $75m surplus value. As a Dodgers fan, it would hurt to give up a De Leon/Stewart/Calhoun package, but I'm starting to agree with you that it isn't an unreasonable ask. Negotiating power certainly matters, though, and without any other serious suitors for Dozier, the Dodgers may just be waiting it out. It's certainly an interesting game of chicken.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So even we agree that Dozier has roughly $50M in surplus value, I think past trades indicate that he is worth something like $75M to $100M in prospects. Someone who is super optimistic about De Leon and Stewart could agree that they get close to the $75M number. But if one isn't (and using your numbers, maybe we shouldn't be), then it seems completely reasonable to want another significant piece in the trade.

Hypothetically, if Dave's source is right, what value would this put on De Leon + Alvarez?

[Otto von Ballpark]

DeLeon and Alvarez are still on the table, however it's not crazy to see why the Twins would NOT include that piece in the spin job to Neal. Now when they ultimately accept DeLeon+Alvarez+AAAA type for Dozier they can make the claim that "The Dodgers blinked first" when in reality that deal was on the table the whole time and essentially it were the Twins who "blinked first"

 

I get why the Twins are doing that, it's Falv and co. first big move, so it's important that they have a strong perception out of the gate.

Dave, sorry if I missed this elsewhere, but have you talked to your source recently? Have they been hearing that specific offer recently, or are they still just going by what they heard a month ago?

[puddle]

As these talks have dragged on, people here really seem to have talked themselves out of a guy who posted a 26.6 K%-BB% as a 23 year old in the PCL and who Steamer forecasts for a 3.39 FIP in 2017, putting him in the same range as guys like Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Chris Archer, and 0.4 WAR in only 18IP.

 

Stewart is a nice pitcher, but people preferring him over De Leon are crazy.

[DaveW]

 

Dave, sorry if I missed this elsewhere, but have you talked to your source recently? Have they been hearing that specific offer recently, or are they still just going by what they heard a month ago?

Yes, spoke with them via text late last night.

Offer still on the table (DeLeon+Alvarez+AAAA type) not much has changed on that front. Twins still asking for better pieces for 3rd.

[nicksaviking]

I'd still like to see a third team get involved. I'd understand why the Twins wouldn't want Puig, but if another club does like him, he would be a good chip to help the Dodgers recoup some prospects alongside of Dozier which might make them more willing to move some of their own.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd still like to see a third team get involved. I'd understand why the Twins wouldn't want Puig, but if another club does like him, he would be a good chip to help the Dodgers recoup some prospects alongside of Dozier which might make them more willing to move some of their own.

 

I'd think they could do that independently. 

[markos]

 

Hypothetically, if Dave's source is right, what value would this put on De Leon + Alvarez?

Optimistically, I'd put the combo at ~$90M: $50M for De Leon and $30M-$40M for Alvarez.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'd still like to see a third team get involved. I'd understand why the Twins wouldn't want Puig, but if another club does like him, he would be a good chip to help the Dodgers recoup some prospects alongside of Dozier which might make them more willing to move some of their own.

 

Honestly, as much as I can understand the Twins not liking Puig, this is a scenario where they could take him off the Dodgers hands in exchange for an actual prospect in stead of a AAAA type (assuming Dave's source is correct).  He's about the same price as Dozier, and he'd be an upgrade over Rosario, not to mention the bounce back possibility with a potential to flip at the deadline if it happens.  I'd probably do that if they would.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'd think they could do that independently. 

 

I'm not sure how much value he has by himself though. If a third team is getting an Ervin Santana or Eddie Rosario there might be more prospects to go around.

[markos]

 

As these talks have dragged on, people here really seem to have talked themselves out of a guy who posted a 26.6 K%-BB% as a 23 year old in the PCL and who Steamer forecasts for a 3.39 FIP in 2017, putting him in the same range as guys like Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Chris Archer, and 0.4 WAR in only 18IP.

 

Stewart is a nice pitcher, but people preferring him over De Leon are crazy.

I think it is the 18IP that scares off people...

 

More seriously, I would be a lot more excited about De Leon if he had ever pitched more than 114 innings in a season. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That poll already exists! (kind of...)

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/24575-dozier-to-dodgers-feedback/

^ bump

 

I saw this and have been meaning to get to it.

[gSutter]

Honestly, as much as I can understand the Twins not liking Puig, this is a scenario where they could take him off the Dodgers hands in exchange for an actual prospect in stead of a AAAA type (assuming Dave's source is correct).  He's about the same price as Dozier, and he'd be an upgrade over Rosario, not to mention the bounce back possibility with a potential to flip at the deadline if it happens.  I'd probably do that if they would.

I assume the Dodgers value Puig more than a AAAA player. I don't think they would just throw him into a deal

[Vanimal46]

As these talks have dragged on, people here really seem to have talked themselves out of a guy who posted a 26.6 K%-BB% as a 23 year old in the PCL and who Steamer forecasts for a 3.39 FIP in 2017, putting him in the same range as guys like Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Chris Archer, and 0.4 WAR in only 18IP.

 

Stewart is a nice pitcher, but people preferring him over De Leon are crazy.

Yep, as we sales people like to say, "Time kills deals."

 

We're seeing it on this thread. De Leon was introduced in detail weeks ago. Now that a few weeks have gone by, people are less excited about the benefits and analyzing the flaws more.

 

Stewart is the newest pitcher introduced to us in more detail, so his benefits are perceived to be better than De Leon's flaws.

[Strato Guy]

 

Yep, as we sales people like to say, "Time kills deals."

We're seeing it on this thread. De Leon was introduced in detail weeks ago. Now that a few weeks have gone by, people are less excited about the benefits and analyzing the flaws more.

Stewart is the newest pitcher introduced to us in more detail, so his benefits are perceived to be better than De Leon's flaws.

Point well taken, but I if Stewart is almost as good as DeLeon, and the Dodgers value DeLeon much more highly that Stewart, then maybe Stewart plus other pieces might work out better.

 

[FargoFanMan]

If de Leon and Alvarez are on the table you take it. Dozier will not have more value. This team doesn't need him. They need pitching. The market for 2nd basemen is not good. I feel the nats sold themselves short and the sale trade was on par. This is what they are getting. They're not getting the prospect haul everyone thinks they should be getting. Sucks but that's the market. Plain and simple. Just as I've said before.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yep, as we sales people like to say, "Time kills deals."

We're seeing it on this thread. De Leon was introduced in detail weeks ago. Now that a few weeks have gone by, people are less excited about the benefits and analyzing the flaws more.

Stewart is the newest pitcher introduced to us in more detail, so his benefits are perceived to be better than De Leon's flaws.

 

Not to mention, once your prospect says yes, the longer you talk, the more time they have to change that to a no.....

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

True, but what LaVelle failed to mention was that it wasn't until February when the Knoblauch deal was consummated.

[Vanimal46]

Not to mention, once your prospect says yes, the longer you talk, the more time they have to change that to a no.....

Exactly. Why else do you think the sales guy rushes off the phone after you agreed to purchase top of the line software for your company?

[USAFChief]

In general...we were all pretty happy with the new Twins leadership, right?

 

So lets give them the benefit of the doubt here, one half of one offseason in, on whether or not they will improve the Twins by accepting an offer on Dozier.

 

"Dozier needs to be traded" is not what I want fom them. I'm surprised so many make that claim here.

[crapforks]

I get the feeling that talks will break down soon and restart in a few weeks. Hopefully the Dodgers don't plug that 2B hole in the meantime. If they do, then the Twins should move to sign another uninspiring SP/swingman and plan on Dozier for the season. They can't bank on a contender needing to upgrade at second in July. 

 

I would like to see Dozier traded for DeLeon + Alvarez/Stewart/Buehler/etc + lesser known prospect, but there is nothing concrete that says that offer is on the table. I believe Dave has a source and has truthfully reported from said source, but we fans have to take all speculation with a grain of salt. The national reporters are not 100% accurate in their reports and they have skin in the game, so to speak. Dave isn't pimping a blog or a site, Heyman and the like have a vested financial interest in being right and still occasionally miss Sources aren't always right, reports/reporters aren't always right, and even when deals are almost 100% complete things sometimes fall through.

 

I have been thoroughly enjoying all of the speculation with the exception of the MLBTR article comments. Those are terrible.

[ewen21]

In general...we were all pretty happy with the new Twins leadership, right?

So lets give them the benefit of the doubt here, one half of one offseason in, on whether or not they will improve the Twins by accepting an offer on Dozier.t what

"Dozier needs to be traded" is not what I want fom them. I'm surprised so many make that claim here.

I can't say one way or the other whether I'm satisfied. It's too early. I agree with the poster who said, "if DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table you take it"

 

I am afraid the Twins brass a) overvalue Dozier's worth to the team, and because of this no deal is going to be made because c) they will ask for more until all deals are off the table. This makes no sense to me. After a 103 loss season there isn't a veteran that can't be replaced. I think the market has spoken here. If you can get two strong prospects who can join the young nucleus you do it. Dozier is the best piece and we already have a replacement in Polanco.

 

We need to think three years down the road. Doziers contract is up by then. Move on and get pieces to build for 3 seasons down the road. Dozier is 33 and on the decline by then

[King]

If they are stuc

 

As these talks have dragged on, people here really seem to have talked themselves out of a guy who posted a 26.6 K%-BB% as a 23 year old in the PCL and who Steamer forecasts for a 3.39 FIP in 2017, putting him in the same range as guys like Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Chris Archer, and 0.4 WAR in only 18IP.

 

Stewart is a nice pitcher, but people preferring him over De Leon are crazy.

 

I don't think it's that crazy. Stewart is really good. As a 24 year old in AA last year he had a 23.8 K-BB%, 1.67 FIP and 24.4 K-BB% in AAA, 2.97 FIP (bloated due to the home run environment in the PCL). 

 

Steamer projects him for a 3.62 FIP true talent level, which is equivalent or around pitchers like Marcus Stroman, Alex Reyes, Julio Urias, Dallas Keuchel, Matt Harvey, Justin Verlander, Kyle Hendricks.. People who have him pegged as a #5 starter are misleading themselves.

 

Not trying to take anything away from De Leon. But Stewart is really good as well. There's a path to a scenario in which Stewart ends up being the better SP in the long run, especially if shoulder issues begin to take over for De Leon. Both would be nice pieces to have.

 

[King]

 

Yes, spoke with them via text late last night.

Offer still on the table (DeLeon+Alvarez+AAAA type) not much has changed on that front. Twins still asking for better pieces for 3rd.

This doesn't lineup with what was reported on MLBTR this morning. 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/brian-dozier-trade-rumors-final-offer-twins.html?fv-home=true&post-id=81577

 

Neal suggests that the sticking point between the Twins and the Dodgers, who have long been the clear primary suitor for Dozier, has been that Los Angeles is seeking a straight up, one-for-one swap of Dozier and top pitching prospect Jose De Leon. The Twins, meanwhile, have understandably been insistent on the inclusion of at least one more well-regarded prospect. The Dodgers “haven’t blinked,” however, according to Neal. That lines up with this week’s report from FanRag’s Jon Heyman that the Dodgers aren’t willing to include any of Cody Bellinger, Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon in a trade to acquire Dozier.

[DodgerFan1234]

Question for Twins fans. Let's say the discussed Dodger deal of JDL/Alvarez falls apart and it is the decision of Falvey & Co that its best to trade Dozier before the season. What would you consider an adequate alternative to JDL/Alvarez+ from a team needing a 2B upgrade? It could reasonably be the Nats for example, but not from say a team that is 100% set at 2B like the Astros.