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Because the Angels have probably one of the worst 3 farm systems in baseball

As these talks have dragged on, people here really seem to have talked themselves out of a guy who posted a 26.6 K%-BB% as a 23 year old in the PCL and who Steamer forecasts for a 3.39 FIP in 2017, putting him in the same range as guys like Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Chris Archer, and 0.4 WAR in only 18IP. Stewart is a nice pitcher, but people preferring him over De Leon are crazy.

This is a good response. It seems reasonable for the Twins to be holding out for $75m surplus value. As a Dodgers fan, it would hurt to give up a De Leon/Stewart/Calhoun package, but I'm starting to agree with you that it isn't an unreasonable ask. Negotiating power certainly matters, though, and without any other serious suitors for Dozier, the Dodgers may just be waiting it out. It's certainly an interesting game of chicken.

I posted something similar in another thread on this site, but figured I'd post it here too since this seems to be the main thread. I feel like people are kind of taking stabs in the dark about how to value the players involved, but we can actually be more precise. Let's start with Dozier. He is projected to be a 3 fWAR player per Fangraphs' Steamer projections. I think that's a little low, to be honest, considering that would be the second worst season of his career (and that Steamer is notoriously conservative). So let's project him for 4 fWAR in 2017 (which is actually his 2016 WARP per Baseball Prospectus) and 3.5 fWAR in 2018. Considering 1 WAR costs about $8.5m and that Dozier is on a $5m salary for the next 2 years, that means he has about $54m in surplus value (($8.5m*7.5)-$10m). De Leon projects for 10.1 fWAR over the next 6 seasons per Fangraphs' KATOH projection. Using this formula to approximate prospect values (and updating the formula for $8.5m per WAR), we get $69.7m of gross value and a Prospect Cost During Team Control of $29.65. That leaves an excess value of $35m. $54m minus $35m leaves a gap of about $19m of excess value to make up for. Brock Stewart projects for 4.9 fWAR over the next 6 seasons (which, after watching him pitch, seems low, but whatever, let's go with it). That's worth $16m of excess value. We're now short $3m, which is like a 40 FV prospect like Rhame, Peters, Abdullah, Estevez, or Sborz. The Dodgers have about a thousand of those, so whatever, take your pick. If, however, you're using a projection system where next = last and you're using 5.9 fWAR as the baseline for Dozier, and you don't expect him to regress at all in 2017 or 2018, then yeah, you're assuming $90m in excess value, which would require De Leon plus $55m more in excess value, which would mean a package like De Leon+Buehler+Stewart+Heredia. This is where I think a lot of Twins fans are coming from and why these expected packages seem so pie-in-the-sky to Dodgers fans. Obviously, I don't think that's at all reasonable to project him to have two seasons like he had in 2016. But you can see how differences in projections can make a really big difference in how to value him, not to mention however you project the prospects themselves. Frankly, I think assuming about 7.5-8 WAR over the next 2 years for Dozier is about right based on his career to this point and based on various projections. That means De Leon+Stewart should be a reasonable starting point, and that the discussion should be around the 3rd piece.

In the Waiting Line - Zero 7 Wait in line 'Till your time Ticking clock Everyone stop Everyone's saying different things to me Different things to me Everyone's saying different things to me Different things to me Whoa Do you believe In what you see There doesn't seem to be anybody else who agrees with me Do you believe In what you see Motionless wheel Nothing is real Wasting my time In the waiting line Do you believe in What you see

I assume this was directed at me. Brian Dozier would put the Dodgers about on par with the Cubs. It is no guarantee of a WS ring. The Dodgers front office has stated their desire to always balance winning today with maintaining a full cupboard of cheap talent on the farm to keep the team competitive in the future. You may think I am delusional, and that's fine, but I'm just trying to give you insight in to how the Dodgers FO typically operates.

I agree the Dodgers would be selling low on Puig, which is why, ultimately, I don't think they move him right now. The outfield is crowded, but he's 2 seasons removed from a 5.6 fWAR season and is only making $7m a year. The volatility in projecting his future performance makes it as hard for teams to want him as it is for the Dodgers to be willing to move him. Yes, De Leon and Buehler are just prospects, but prospects have specific values, which are highly dependent on whichever forecast you trust. Each team surely has its own projections and so valuation can differ slightly, but I'm willing to bet the Twins and Dodgers both know that De Leon and Dozier's excess values aren't far apart. That being said, small changes in the forecasts can make a big difference. If you're the Twins and you project De Leon to be worth 9 fWAR over 6 seasons and Dozier to be worth 8 over 2, that's $30m excess vs. $58m excess value. A difference in $28m excess value would necessitate you asking the Dodgers to add another top tier prospect, like Alex Verdugo, who, if you trust Fangraphs' KATOH projection, is projected to be worth 8.6 fWAR over 6 seasons, or, about $29m in excess value. If you're the Dodgers, though, and you project De Leon to be worth 13 fWAR over 6 seasons and Dozier to be worth 6 over 2, that's $44.8m in excess value vs. $41m in excess value, which, you could see, would make them hesitant to give up anything more than De Leon alone. Yes, there is risk in prospects, but that risk is factored in to the forecasts. For this reason, I can understand why the Twins are asking for more than the Dodgers are willing to give up. I can also understand why the Dodgers are reluctant to give up a whole lot more than JDL. I do think the deal ultimately gets done with a package like JDL+Toles+Heredia or something along those lines, but expecting SEVERAL top tier prospects in return is just not going to happen. I don't have access to the Dodgers' proprietary data, obviously, but I know how Friedman/Zaidi think and how they evaluate trade options. I guarantee they're doing valuations similarly to how I am. It would shock me to see them give up many of the proposed returns posted on this board.

If De Leon, Buehler, Puig is your minimum, I think you're going to be very disappointed, because there is zero chance the Dodgers front office does that. Let's talk values. Puig is only 25 and projects to be a 3 fWAR player on a $6m salary for the next 2 years. Assuming 1 fWAR = $8.5m, that's about $39m in surplus value over the course of the next two seasons. Dozier is also projected to be a 3 fWAR player. He's on a $5m salary for the next 2 years, meaning that's $41m in surplus value. Despite Puig having the age advantage, let's add in a few million more to Dozier because his success is more recent and Puig's had a rough last 2 years, both on and off the field. Let's call it a $8.5m difference - 1 fWAR - to make it easy. That's almost nothing. Maybe a guy like Will Smith who projects for 2.5 fWAR over the next 6 seasons would be the extra piece if Puig was the headliner. But De Leon alone projects for 10.1 fWAR over the next 6 seasons. Using this formula to approximate prospect values (and updating for $8.5m per WAR), we'd use we get $69.7m of gross value and a Prospect Cost During Team Control of $29.65. That leaves an excess value of... almost exactly $40m. Based on these values, De Leon for Dozier straight up, frankly, would be a reasonable deal. Puig for Dozier straight up would also be a reasonable deal, although now it's tilting towards the Dodgers, which is why it'd be reasonable to throw in a mid-level prospect with Puig. Puig + De Leon + Buehler is about $100m of excess value. Dozier alone is about $40m. Maybe that helps you understand why, as a Dodgers fan, I would be disappointed if the Dodgers gave up much more than De Leon for Dozier.

Hey, thanks! Seems like a great blog with level-headed people. I'll be stalking you all from a distance

Hi everyone, Dodgers fan here to give my perspective! In order to provide some semblance of order, here are a list of questions: 1) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable? Urias isn't really a prospect anymore, but Urias of course. Bellinger. Probably Alvarez as well, considering how much they invested in him and passed on Yoan Moncada in order to spend on Alvarez, Diaz and Sierra. 2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling? 1a) Alvarez (if you prefer high ceiling) 1b) De Leon (if you prefer high floor) ... 3) Buehler 4) Stewart ... 5) Sheffield .. 6) Stripling 3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Yusniel Diaz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo? 1) Bellinger ... 2) Verdugo 3) Calhoun ... 4) Lux 5) Diaz 4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Trace Thompson, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke? From a Dodgers fan perspective, in order of most want to keep to least: Barnes (he's old for a prospect, but Dodgers are win-now, and he's a perfect backup) Toles Thompson ... Taylor Van Slyke 5) Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like? Trevor Oaks seems like a future 200 IP #4/#5 workhorse in the mold of Brett Anderson, without all the injuries Keibert Ruiz is a really interesting catching prospect with both offensive and defensive promise 6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list? I guess I'll list the Dodgers prospects who I think are overrated: Diaz, Lux, Smith, Heredia, Estevez 7) What is your minimum acceptable trade? I'd be unhappy if they sacrificed more than JDL/Calhoun/40 prospect. Lots of people here seem down on Calhoun though, so call it JDL/Lux/40 prospect if you prefer. 8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)? I don't love giving up JDL - I think he's ready to be a great pitcher right now - but assuming he's the minimum price, JDL + Diaz or Lux would make me happy. If you can't tell, I'm really high on De Leon. 9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day? I'd be a disappointment from my perspective because I do like Dozier, but I'd trust the Dodgers FO to find another option. I think the Twins are selling high right now and will kick themselves if they wait. 10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018? I expect he'll compile around 7 fWAR over the next two seasons. 11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017? 29