Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Doomtints]

Some people have started saying that the deal on the table is for De Leon only. No second piece, no third piece. This is why things have not moved. DaveW insists there are more pieces being worked on, which suggests his source is within the Twins and not the Dodgers and that the two teams are actually very far apart.

[DodgerFan1234]

Some people have started saying that the deal on the table is for De Leon only. No second piece, no third piece. This is why things have not moved.

To be fair I think that was just an editorialization by MLBTR. Not actually reported by anybody.

[USAFChief]

Move on and get pieces to build for 3 seasons down the road. Dozier is 33 and on the decline by then

One thing I am absolutely certain of is, I hope Twins leadership isn't thinking only in terms of "3 seasons down the road."

 

IMO, that's how you end up the KansasCity Royals, owning one of the best farm systems--and worst actual WL records--in MLB for two decades. Serving as a farm team for those teams trying to win, with that bright future always just over the.horizon.

[crapforks]

C'mon Yankees. Cant you just move on from Castro at 2B and enter this sweepstakes?

[DaveW]

This doesn't lineup with what was reported on MLBTR this morning.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/brian-dozier-trade-rumors-final-offer-twins.html?fv-home=true&post-id=81577

 

Neal suggests that the sticking point between the Twins and the Dodgers, who have long been the clear primary suitor for Dozier, has been that Los Angeles is seeking a straight up, one-for-one swap of Dozier and top pitching prospect Jose De Leon. The Twins, meanwhile, have understandably been insistent on the inclusion of at least one more well-regarded prospect. The Dodgers “haven’t blinked,” however, according to Neal. That lines up with this week’s report from FanRag’s Jon Heyman that the Dodgers aren’t willing to include any of Cody Bellinger, Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon in a trade to acquire Dozier.

Well I guess we will see who is right.

 

The Neal stuff is spin from the Twins most likely.

[King]

 

Question for Twins fans. Let's say the discussed Dodger deal of JDL/Alvarez falls apart and it is the decision of Falvey & Co that its best to trade Dozier before the season. What would you consider an adequate alternative to JDL/Alvarez+ from a team needing a 2B upgrade? It could reasonably be the Nats for example, but not from say a team that is 100% set at 2B like the Astros.

 

Projected WAR for teams at 2B. Dodgers make the most sense by far.

 

http://i.imgur.com/4j8xrCa.png

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=2B

[King]

 

To be fair I think that was just an editorialization by MLBTR. Not actually reported by anybody.

 

If you read the article, it was reported by La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. I don't know what credibility he has though. The initial report was here: 

http://www.startribune.com/want-brian-dozier-twins-imply-time-s-running-out-to-consider-trade-offers/408699505/

 

Jon Heyman reported the same thing not too long ago. It's not a fluff piece, this is real information that they have received from people within the organizations, the issue is that it contradicts what Dave has been reporting all along. Either Daves source or La Velle/Heymans source are wrong here, who knows which one is right.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/heymans-latest-encarnacion-trumbo-jays-moss-napoli-dozier-padres.html

While the Dodgers are willing to give up Jose De Leon in a trade that would net them Brian Dozier from the Twins, they’re not willing to include first base prospect Cody Bellinger or well-regarded right-handed pitching prospects Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon. Heyman writes that some clubs feel the Dodgers are being “stingy” with their prospects and overvaluing their minor league talent, though as he points out, that approach worked to their benefit with regards to Corey Seager and Julio Urias (although none of the names listed are as well-regarded as that pair was).

[crapforks]

 

Projected WAR for teams at 2B. Dodgers make the most sense by far.

 

http://i.imgur.com/4j8xrCa.png

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=2B

I was literally just looking this up. Mostly to see what the Blue Jays were expecting.

[King]

 

I was literally just looking this up. Mostly to see what the Blue Jays were expecting.

 

They are locked in with Devon Travis at 2B and Steve Pearce to fill in at the position when Travis inevitably gets injured. Don't think there is a fit there.

[markos]

 

Projected WAR for teams at 2B. Dodgers make the most sense by far.

 

http://i.imgur.com/4j8xrCa.png

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=2B

When Wade Davis was on the block, I had a crazy idea that the Twins should trade Dozier/Santana for Davis/Ventura/2 prospects, and then flip Davis. It didn't really work because KC is shedding payroll.

 

Also, I wish the Braves were another year into their rebuild. I could see a Dozier for one of Wisler/Foltynewicz and two of Allard/Newcomb/Wentz/Fried/Muller/Anderson/Soroka/Toussaint working. But the Braves just aren't quite in a position to start winning.

[crapforks]

 

They are locked in with Devon Travis at 2B and Steve Pearce to fill in at the position when Travis inevitably gets injured. Don't think there is a fit there.

Yeah. I somehow completely forgot about Travis. Nice player.

[King]

I don't see a fit anywhere other than the Dodgers and maybe the Cardinals. All the other teams at the bottom of the 2B standings are rebuilding or retooling.

 

When Wade Davis was on the block, I had a crazy idea that the Twins should trade Dozier/Santana for Davis/Ventura/2 prospects, and then flip Davis. It didn't really work because KC is shedding payroll.

 

Also, I wish the Braves were another year into their rebuild. I could see a Dozier for one of Wisler/Foltynewicz and two of Allard/Newcomb/Wentz/Fried/Muller/Anderson/Soroka/Toussaint working. But the Braves just aren't quite in a position to start winning.

I'd be pretty disappointed if the return for Dozier was headlined by Wisler or Foltynewicz.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Do the Royals think they are out of it next season?  I'd think BD was cheap enough to get them interested, especially given the upgrade. I could see them trying for one more ring.

[markos]

 

I don't see a fit anywhere other than the Dodgers and maybe the Cardinals. All the other teams at the bottom of the 2B standings are rebuilding or retooling.

 

I'd be pretty disappointed if the return for Dozier was headlined by Wisler or Foltynewicz.

The trade would be "headlined" by the young pitching prospects. Wisler and Foltynewicz would play the role of Stewart in the various Dodger trades: a cheap, controllable, MLB-ready backend starter with a little upside.

[crapforks]

Can anyone think of any recent prospects who have exceeded limited upside? I mean Dozier obviously did, so there is probably a ton of examples, but I can't think of any. Any pitchers who were thought of as #5 types who turned out to be more #2 or #1 types? Im usually pretty good about that kind of thing, but I can't think of any off the top of my head. 

[ashbury]

It's very frustrating that the Twins have a player that has an historic season, has a good contract and all before a massive seller's market the following offseason, but it turns out he plays the one position that only 1 contender has a hole. If nothing happens, I'll be upset about the misfortune of such a tepid market when every other factor lined up in the Twins' favor.

It might be that 2B is on the borderline of being a true "up the middle" position where it can be a seller's market. Teams almost never have a genuine oversupply of starting pitching; it is hard to have an oversupply of good all-around catchers; ditto, shortstops; ditto, to a slightly lower degree, CF. But 2B? That's where teams move a SS who can't quite excel in the field, and there are a lot of such "tweener" guys. We're seeing that now with Polanco, who is slated to replace another such a guy in Dozier. Looked at league-wide, a team like the Dodgers can find other options if the cost of obtaining a particular one seems too high. Granting that Dozier had close to a monster year in 2016, and he's our best trade chip, 2B still isn't the position that pries away a haul of young controllable elite starting pitching. I'm hoping for an overpay, of course, if LA decides to go all-in for the World Series this season.

[AWOLNATION_11]

I've read this multiple times throughout these threads and I wonder every time, so I'm just going to ask.

 

The offer of DeLeon+Alvarez+AAAA type does that mean a prospect that profiles as a AAAA type or an already established player on the 40-man that we'd all consider an AAAA type?

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Can anyone think of any recent prospects who have exceeded limited upside? I mean Dozier obviously did, so there is probably a ton of examples, but I can't think of any. Any pitchers who were thought of as #5 types who turned out to be more #2 or #1 types? Im usually pretty good about that kind of thing, but I can't think of any off the top of my head. 

 

Kluber would be a good starting point. Here's his last BA prospect write up before exceeding innings writeups:

 

The Indians, Cardinals and Padres pulled off a three-way deal at the July 31 trade deadline, with Cleveland sending Jake Westbrook to St. Louis and getting Kluber from San Diego in return. He led the Double-A Texas League with 136 strikeouts despite leaving the circuit after the trade. He racks up whiffs more with his deceptive short-arm delivery than with pure stuff. Kluber does have a solid arsenal of pitches, working mainly off his 88-92 mph fastball and average slider. He also flashes an average changeup and throws strikes. He still needs to refine his command, because he's around the strike zone almost too much and is fairly hittable. He'd durable, having made 82 starts and worked 455 innings in his three full pro seasons. Kluber doesn't have high upside, but he has good feel for pitching and could be a back-of-the-rotation starter. He'll open 2011 in the Columbus rotation after finishing last season with two starts there.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

The trade would be "headlined" by the young pitching prospects. Wisler and Foltynewicz would play the role of Stewart in the various Dodger trades: a cheap, controllable, MLB-ready backend starter with a little upside.

 

Folty, to me, looks like a potential star. What am I missing? Check out his game by game logs from last year.

[King]

 

Can anyone think of any recent prospects who have exceeded limited upside? I mean Dozier obviously did, so there is probably a ton of examples, but I can't think of any. Any pitchers who were thought of as #5 types who turned out to be more #2 or #1 types? Im usually pretty good about that kind of thing, but I can't think of any off the top of my head. 

 

There's hundreds of examples. Players outperform their minor league projections all the time. Paul Goldschmidt wasn't regarded as a prospect. Kevin Pillar was thought to be no more than a 4th outfielder. For pitchers you're looking at Jacob DeGrom, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, etc. as guys who have outperformed their minor league projections.

 

The kicker is that all these guys were actually good in the minor leagues, but were overlooked. Just like Brock Stewart.

 

 

[DodgerFan1234]

Projected WAR for teams at 2B. Dodgers make the most sense by far.

 

http://i.imgur.com/4j8xrCa.png

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=2B

See, if I'm looking at that schedule I'd try to find a way to put the Dodgers against the D'Backs. I know how miffed most Dodger fans were after Greinke. They are operating under a tight budget but Dozier is a piece that adds excess value. Their MiLB pitching depth isn't what it once was though.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

 

The kicker is that all these guys were actually good in the minor leagues, but were overlooked. Just like Brock Stewart.

 

Most "overlooked" pitchers who become aces, which is actually a pretty high percentage of ace pitchers, are guys that simply developed a new skill set in the major league level. It wasn't wrong to rank Johan Santana behind Adam Johnson and Kyle Lohse in 2001 for example, because it would've taken one hell of a crystal ball to see him developing a wipeout change up.

 

De Leon, Stewart and even Alvarez are all in the same boat really in that they need a new trick to truly be elite. The problem with Stewart is he probably needs two new tricks since he's a one-pitch pitcher at this point, although a high-90s fastball with good command is one hell of a pitch.

[King]

 

See, if I'm looking at that schedule I'd try to find a way to put the Dodgers against the D'Backs. I know how miffed most Dodger fans were after Greinke. They are operating under a tight budget but Dozier is a piece that adds excess value. Their MiLB pitching depth isn't what it once was though.

 

Robbie Ray would be a nice pitcher to have.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I thought Stewart had a good changeup as well.

[King]

 

De Leon, Stewart and even Alvarez are all in the same boat really in that they need a new trick to truly be elite. The problem with Stewart is he probably needs two new tricks since he's a one-pitch pitcher at this point, although a high-90s fastball with good command is one hell of a pitch.

 

I don't know how you can say he's a one pitch pitcher. His changeup had a 16.3 SwStr% last year and his slider had a 21 SwStr%. Those are weapons

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Robbie Ray would be a nice pitcher to have.

 

Wouldn't Archie Bradley look good in a Twins uniform too?

[LewFordLives]

I have been following this thread over the last couple weeks and don't have much new insight to add, but in the interest of piling on, I just want to vent and make two points.....

 

1. If LaVelle Neal's sources are correct, and the Dodgers are only offering DeLeon straight up, that is an insult, and if I were Falvey/Levine I wouldn't even engage in any further discussions until they make a more realistic offer.

 

2. Under no circumstances do the Twins "have to" trade Dozier. This team has some issues to work out, but there is talent on the 40-man roster, and I don't believe for a second that they have absolutely no chance of making the playoffs in the next two years. When this ship turns around it may happen quickly. And even if they don't get things turned around, watching Dozier for two more years will be worth more to the fans than a prospect who probably won't  have any lasting value to the organization.

[King]

 

Wouldn't Archie Bradley look good in a Twins uniform too?

There's a lot of risk there. 

[King]

Buster Olney weighs in, but behind a paywall (ESPN insider).

 

http://insider.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15606

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

There's a lot of risk there. 

 

Yeah, but that's true with every prospect