Article: The Brightening Future Of The Twins Rotation

[Nick Nelson]

I'm trying to recall: when is the last time the Twins have had this much pitching quality in the upper minors? It's been a while, for sure. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Each of these four will probably appear in preseason Top 100 lists (with the exception of JO, who would if he qualified) and all could/should start in Double-A or above next year. So I'm not quite sure what you're getting at. 

 

That winning the prospect list doesn't do much for brightening the Twins rotation for awhile.  I get your intention, it just seems a bit forced.

[Han Joelo]

 

I'm trying to recall: when is the last time the Twins have had this much pitching quality in the upper minors? It's been a while, for sure. 

That Baseball Weekly I alluded to featured the likes of Garza, Slowey, Blackburn maybe, Perkins, Crain, and Durbin, even Duensing.  Different days and different ways to evaluate prospects to be sure.  I guess for many, me included, if the outcome for the current group was the same as that one, it would be disappointing, if realistic.  But then a Liriano comes out of nowhere...

[markos]

 

I'm trying to recall: when is the last time the Twins have had this much pitching quality in the upper minors? It's been a while, for sure. 

2005?

Liriano (21)

Baker (23)

Bonser (23)

Durbin (23)

Blackburn (23)

Perkins (22)

Garza (21) just drafted

[Mr. Brooks]

Each of these four will probably appear in preseason Top 100 lists (with the exception of JO, who would if he qualified) and all could/should start in Double-A or above next year. So I'm not quite sure what you're getting at.

IMO, pitching prospects should be viewed as lottery tickets until they have shown success at AA.

I'm also excited at what these guys could become, maybe, but I don't even pencil them into any future plans until that level.

So, this is a big year for them.

[kellyvance]

Berrios starts as our #5 SP out of ST. He has nothing more to prove in the minors and it isn't like we have anyone great blocking him.

 

Santana, May, Gibson, Santiago and Berrios with Duffy in the BP as a set up man

[Linus]

IMO, pitching prospects should be viewed as lottery tickets until they have shown success at AA.

I'm also excited at what these guys could become, maybe, but I don't even pencil them into any future plans until that level.

So, this is a big year for them.

This. Guys get filtered out at every level so it's important to have plenty in the pipeline. Of the 4 mentioned odds are that two end up being MLB regulars.

[drjim]

 

This. Guys get filtered out at every level so it's important to have plenty in the pipeline. Of the 4 mentioned odds are that two end up being MLB regulars.

 

If you take those 4 (and add Stewart and Mejia) and get 2 starters for more than 3-4 years, that would be a good outcome.

[nicksaviking]

 

That Baseball Weekly I alluded to featured the likes of Garza, Slowey, Blackburn maybe, Perkins, Crain, and Durbin, even Duensing.  Different days and different ways to evaluate prospects to be sure.  I guess for many, me included, if the outcome for the current group was the same as that one, it would be disappointing, if realistic.  But then a Liriano comes out of nowhere...

 

I agree it will be disappointing if the eventual outcomes are still the same, but if Liriano had stayed healthy and Garza had just stayed, those two and Baker would have been a pretty decent 1-3.

 

This team desperately needs to find a true ace though. It sure doesn't feel like other franchises routinely go decades at a time without finding one. This sure seems like a Twins problem, not a small market problem.

[ALessKosherScott]

In the effort of staying positive, Jay reminds me a lot of Glen Perkins and Eddie Guardado.

[Taildragger8791]

 

I agree it will be disappointing if the eventual outcomes are still the same, but if Liriano had stayed healthy and Garza had just stayed, those two and Baker would have been a pretty decent 1-3.

 

This team desperately needs to find a true ace though. It sure doesn't feel like other franchises routinely go decades at a time without finding one. This sure seems like a Twins problem, not a small market problem.

 

It's absolutely a Twins problem, not a small market one. High end pitching talent is rarely available in free agency for less than exhorbant prices unless there are serious health issues attached. It has to be acquired through drafts, international signings, and prospect trades. Of course, you have to keep the talent you managed to get, not squander it away in busted trades (this has been a Twins issue with all types of players).

[drjim]

 

I agree it will be disappointing if the eventual outcomes are still the same, but if Liriano had stayed healthy and Garza had just stayed, those two and Baker would have been a pretty decent 1-3.

 

This team desperately needs to find a true ace though. It sure doesn't feel like other franchises routinely go decades at a time without finding one. This sure seems like a Twins problem, not a small market problem.

 

Other franchises go a decade without developing an ace (minimum 3.5 WAR for at least 3 seasons) all the time.

 

Since Santana's time I came up with Arizona, Colorado, San Diego, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Kansas City, Baltimore, Yankees, Toronto, as franchises that didn't develop aces (FA signings exempted). This was the top of my head, I accept I could be missing some guys.

 

It is not a Twins only problem, but also not surprisingly it includes other small and mid market teams that have struggled to have consistent success.

[Dantes929]

 I don't hate that we haven't had an ace.   I hate that in the last 6 years we have only had one year in which more than one of our top 5 or 6 starters according to Baseball Reference has had an ERA below 4.18.   Gibson, Santana and Milone in 2015 were right around 4 and we competed until game 158 or so.     Last year Santana was the only one below 5.00 ERA!!!     Just think how nice it would be to have 5 starters at 4.00.   Quick math guess on a rotation averaging 4.00 with an offense scoring around 4.5 will equal around 90 wins.    I think the potential is there with Santana, May, Berrios, DeLeon (I know, we have to get him first) and Gibson/Santiago to have a rotation of around 4.00.    Doesn't sound great but it would be.    

[nicksaviking]

 

Other franchises go a decade without developing an ace (minimum 3.5 WAR for at least 3 seasons) all the time.

 

Since Santana's time I came up with Arizona, Colorado, San Diego, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Kansas City, Baltimore, Yankees, Toronto, as franchises that didn't develop aces (FA signings exempted). This was the top of my head, I accept I could be missing some guys.

 

It is not a Twins only problem, but also not surprisingly it includes other small and mid market teams that have struggled to have consistent success.

 

I'm not sure where you found the definition of an ace being 3 seasons of 3.5 WAR. Either way, most of those teams are willing to buy an ace so it's not as pressing for them to develop one, AZ, Atlanta, NY, KC and Toronto all have or are able to buy one, heck even Milwaukee has made the attempt. I'd also be satisfied enough with Johnny Cueto to remove Cincinnati from that list.

 

Either way, it's not like we as fans should be satisfied simply because other teams have failed in this area as well. Being one of the bottom 1/3rd doesn't work for me.

[drjim]

I'm not sure where you found the definition of an ace being 3 seasons of 3.5 WAR. Either way, most of those teams are willing to buy an ace so it's not as pressing for them to develop one, AZ, Atlanta, NY, KC and Toronto all have or are able to buy one, heck even Milwaukee has made the attempt. I'd also be satisfied enough with Johnny Cueto to remove Cincinnati from that list.

I figured that definition covers an ace. Multiple years of high performance and 3.5 WAR is a good cutoff of slightly better than good Scott Baker.

 

Yes on Cueto, scratch Cincinnati from the list. Might be one or two others, it was a quick thought experiment.

[drjim]

And who said anything about being satisfied? Some context is important. Failure to develop pitching is obviously the biggest failure of this franchise the past decade and the number one reason by far for sustained sucking.

 

I generally think this is cyclical more than anything. A decade ago the Twins developed the best pitcher in baseball and backed him up with some decent guys. Been a disaster since.

[DocBauer]

I admit I sort of forgot that list from 2005.

 

At the risk if dating myself, I was honestly thinking all the way back to around 1983-85 or so with Banks, Sontag, Pittman, Newman, Gasser, Nivens and Bumgarner.

[Miraclebat]

 

If you are saying the jury is still out on Jay (and I completely agree), then I think the same should be said about Romero. If you throw out Romero's "high school" years (age 17 and 18), then he has made all of 19 starts, and averaged only 5.6 IP/GS. He, like Jay, has yet to throw more than 90 innings in a season. Both have a long way to go - probably two full seasons of innings build up - before they can be counted on as legitimate big-league rotation candidates. Gonsalves, Berrios and Stewart have at least demonstrated the durability necessary to actually hold up over a full season. 

Why all of the caution as far as innings "build up" is concerned.  Any good HS pitcher pitched over 120 innings in high school and then summer ball.  Unless they were injured (Jay,) it is a crime to have our top prospects throwing so few innings in the minors.....especially when several of the other 5-6 starting pitchers on those clubs would be clasisfied more as journeymen and/or have no real shot of making it above AAA.

[mikelink45]

 

They have Latino pitching coaches in the minors. I don't think that's the problem.

 

There were potential red flags with Berrios in the minors that were exposed in the majors. Probably the reason he wasn't promoted quite as quickly as some wanted him to be. Key will be whether he can make the adjustments.

A professional team that has multitudes of coaches has a responsibility for the talent of their players and their growth and success.

 

[chpettit19]

I think these guys can get us back to a respectable rotation if a few of them work out, but this article could have been written as a "don't get too excited" article just by changing the intro. The guy that's been promoted as our future stud and number 1 pitcher "could still easily end up in the bullpen." The second guy doesn't have dominating pitches or pinpoint command. Sounds like a description of Tommy Milone. The 3rd guy hasn't thrown 100 innings and is a fastball/slider lefty who has been in a bullpen since college. Not exactly screaming "I'll save your rotation!" The last guy has the best stuff and in a vacuum has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm, but has never stayed healthy so expecting him to provide legitimate innings anytime soon seems far fetched.

 

I love the depth of the Twins pitching prospects as they seem to have a whole bunch who have a real chance to make the majors and contribute in either the rotation or the pen. It's not a disaster if a few end up dominating in the pen (nobody would complain about one of them becoming Wade Davis). But it's hard to get too excited when they all have the upside of a number 3 starter if everything breaks right. They seem to be a classic Twins group of average starters who can do enough to not sink a strong offensive team in the regular season, but have no chance of beating legit teams in the playoffs. One of them needs to take a step and become a legit major league #2 pitcher. You don't need an Ace to win, but your best pitcher can't be the 3rd best pitcher in a good playoff team's rotation. If you don't have an ace you need at least 2 #2 guys and the rest need to be #3s. Hopefully a few of the current prospects take another step and have a tick up in their stuff and can be better than #3s.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Berrios starts as our #5 SP out of ST. He has nothing more to prove in the minors and it isn't like we have anyone great blocking him.

 

Santana, May, Gibson, Santiago and Berrios with Duffy in the BP as a set up man

 

What about Hughes? Does he go to the BP? Or will he be injured?

 

I'm not sure May is ready to be the No. 2 starter in this lineup. Santiago, or even Gibson. May needs more seasoning. Make him the no. 4. 

But if Santiago, May and/or Gibson falter after about five starts each, I'd consider a change. Let them all know this is a competition. 

 

I like Justin Haley, the player the Twins ultimately acquired in the Rule 5 draft.  With a good spring, he could also be in the mix for the starting rotation.

 

But the future is looking brighter. As for the Dozier deal, and getting De Leon and others, I'm thinking the Twins and Dodgers are still not as close as many believe. I'd give it about a 50-50 chance. 

 

Don't count your De Leon(s) until they're, well, hatched.

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

What about Hughes? Does he go to the BP? Or will he be injured?

 

I'm not sure May is ready to be the No. 2 starter in this lineup. Santiago, or even Gibson. May needs more seasoning. Make him the no. 4.

But if Santiago, May and/or Gibson falter after about five starts each, I'd consider a change. Let them all know this is a competition.

 

I like Justin Haley, the player the Twins ultimately acquired in the Rule 5 draft. With a good spring, he could also be in the mix for the starting rotation.

 

But the future is looking brighter. As for the Dozier deal, and getting De Leon and others, I'm thinking the Twins and Dodgers are still not as close as many believe. I'd give it about a 50-50 chance.

 

Don't count your De Leon(s) until they're, well, hatched.

Does it really matter if May starts the 2nd game of the season or the 4th?

[kab21]

 

If you take those 4 (and add Stewart and Mejia) and get 2 starters for more than 3-4 years, that would be a good outcome.

And this is the reality. The bright future of this article will likely result in 2 good starters at best. That is great except that it leaves 3 more rotation spots. And that is why the Twins should be adding as many decent to good to great pitching prospects as they can. Someone mentioned that the Twins had enough good but not great pitching prospects in another thread and only cared if the Twins were able to trade for a legit front of the rotation arm. I disagree.

[DocBauer]

IMO, May will turn out solid at worst in the rotation given a real chance. This is based on stuff, milb history, and what he started to show in 2015. But his IP over the past 1 1/2 seasons probably marks him as the 5th SP for 2017.

 

Also still a big believer in Berrios. Being a quality ML SP is HARD. There is almost always a learning curve. Part of his problem, IMO, is maybe trying too hard and not relaxing.

 

You just have to believe and hope a Dozier trade happens and we get another quality young arm to plug in.

 

Haley? Don't know enough about him to really say much. But Gibson, Santiago and maybe Hughes all help finish out the rotation for now. (Does Wheeler ever get or deserve a shot if he pitches again as well as he did last year?) And Mejia and Gonsalves develop at Rochester while 4 other young arms begin 2017 and AA with some nice upside.

 

Nothing is proven or guaranteed! But I don't feel things are all doom and gloom either. I'm actually kind of excited over the rotation options the next year or two.

[drjim]

 

And this is the reality. The bright future of this article will likely result in 2 good starters at best. That is great except that it leaves 3 more rotation spots. And that is why the Twins should be adding as many decent to good to great pitching prospects as they can. Someone mentioned that the Twins had enough good but not great pitching prospects in another thread and only cared if the Twins were able to trade for a legit front of the rotation arm. I disagree.

 

No one is against adding as many prospects as possible, but I wouldn't trade Santana at this point for only the return suggested in that other post.

 

This might be incorrect, but I am a believer that you don't get better on the mlb level by hoarding prospects at the lower level at the expense of mlb talent. I think there is talent on this team that needs to be nurtured a little this year, and having some success would be beneficial for the overall good of the franchise going forward. There is a lot of uncertainty in the rotation right now, so there is benefit in having a stabalizing force as other roles are filled in behind. If it sorts itself out at the deadline and the Twins are (as to be expected) not going to make the playoffs, then revisit a trade then. Moving Santana right now for fair-ish value doesn't do much for me.

[Taildragger8791]

 

What about Hughes? Does he go to the BP? Or will he be injured?

 

At this point it's silly to expect or plan on anything from Hughes. He's coming off a pretty mysterious injury, with a surgery that only had marginal hopes of fully resolving the problem. If he comes back healthy then that's a happy surprise and he can work out of the bullpen until he proves his arm is good to go. Then maybe move into the rotation when a spot opens up due to inevitable injuries and poor performance.

[kab21]

 

No one is against adding as many prospects as possible, but I wouldn't trade Santana at this point for only the return suggested in that other post.

 

This might be incorrect, but I am a believer that you don't get better on the mlb level by hoarding prospects at the lower level at the expense of mlb talent. I think there is talent on this team that needs to be nurtured a little this year, and having some success would be beneficial for the overall good of the franchise going forward. There is a lot of uncertainty in the rotation right now, so there is benefit in having a stabalizing force as other roles are filled in behind. If it sorts itself out at the deadline and the Twins are (as to be expected) not going to make the playoffs, then revisit a trade then. Moving Santana right now for fair-ish value doesn't do much for me.

 

I am against moving Santana simply because he won't be here in 2 years and before then he might fall off in performance. I am 100% for adding a prospect that would rank in the #75-100 range overall and in the Twins top 5 for him because of those two reasons.

 

I don't like it when teams (like the 76er's) make their team as bad as possible for no reason but adding another very good prospect is exactly what this team needs.

[Doomtints]

Starting pitching prospects work out about 20% of the time.  We can expect one pitcher from your list to be a long term contributor.  If this is all the Twins have in the pipeline, the future is not bright.

[Vanimal46]

Starting pitching prospects work out about 20% of the time. We can expect one pitcher from your list to be a long term contributor. If this is all the Twins have in the pipeline, the future is not bright.

Agreed. But, as a positive, Jay and Romero appear to have the stuff to be back of the bullpen options if they fail to make it as starters.

[beckmt]

 

Agreed. But, as a positive, Jay and Romero appear to have the stuff to be back of the bullpen options if they fail to make it as starters.

Twins have multiple bullpen options(Duffey, Chaigos, Jay(if he does not make it as a starter), Reed, Melokias(bad spelling I know), and several others.  If all fails build the shutdown bullpen, if covers a great number of starting pitcher sins.  One other good thing, managers have not figured out yet how to play against it.  Look at it this way, how would Madden have to manage if he was looking at a bullpen that would only give up a run 50% of the time after they appeared in the 6th inning.  It would change how you managed the game as you would have to be tied, ahead, or at worse 1 run behind starting the 6th inning.