DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

[gSutter]

Kazmir is owed $32 million and McCarthy $20 million over the next two year.  Both Kazmir and the Dodgers would prefer a divorce.  Kamir has a chronic issue in his neck that would make him unattactive to me if I was a GM.

I haven't looked it up but isn't some of Kazmir's money deferred for like 3 years after his contract is up?

[gSutter]

Kazmir's contract...

2016: $5 million bonus plus $3 million salary

2017: $8 million

2018: $8 million

2019: $8 million (deferred from 2016), payable on Dec. 15

2020: $8 million (deferred from 2017), payable on Dec. 15

2021: $8 million (deferred from 2018), payable on Dec. 15

 

He becomes a free agent in 2019. So he's still getting paid for 3 years after his contract to play is up. I don't like that deal as much as McCarthy's

[1965GREATYEAR]

 

I wonder about the first one. A guy who's basically never thrown a pro pitch?

The second one is more interesting to me. That's basically a $24 million salary dump for the Dodgers, or more than Dozier is set to be paid for the rest of his contract. Obviously it hinges on which "higher prospects." Are we putting Urias back on the table?

'Urias back on the table?"

Please don't go back to crazy town.

[kab21]

I would take back Kazmir or McCarthy if it allowed them to get the prospects that they really wanted - 2 of DeLeon/Bellinger/Alvarez and lesser prospects.

 

This is exactly the type of thing the Twins should be doing right now. Their payroll will likely be <100M for the next 2-3 seasons. They probably shouldn't be making any HUGE signings in FA and everyone is still worried about spending money. I thought people were happy that Ryan was gone and there was a new FO.

[twinsnorth49]

I would take back Kazmir or McCarthy if it allowed them to get the prospects that they really wanted - 2 of DeLeon/Bellinger/Alvarez and lesser prospects.

 

This is exactly the type of thing the Twins should be doing right now. Their payroll will likely be <100M for the next 2-3 seasons. They probably shouldn't be making any HUGE signings in FA and everyone is still worried about spending money. I thought people were happy that Ryan was gone and there was a new FO.

Yeah, totally agree with this. If taking McCarthy or Kazmir nets them their desired prospects, you do it. The contracts should not be an issue with where the team is at and will be done when they could realistically be lookng at signing an impact piece.

[nicksaviking]

Plus it's not like it would be that much of a long shot that either Kazmir or McCarthy would end up being one of the team's five best options for starters.

[DodgerFan1234]

Dodger fan here.  I found this board here I'm sure like some other Dodger fans when reading about this trade rumor.  I've been a member under two of the older Dodger forums for almost 20 years (I'm old!) and I have to say this board is one of the better foreign team boards I've seen in my time.  You guys have some great/reasonable discussion going on.

 

I thought I'd just give my .02 on what I've read on this board and in particular to the inclusion of Alvarez into JDL.  This is my opinion, but it comes from a sick obsession of breathing Dodger information 24/7/365.  From reputable Dodger sources JDL has always been part of this trade rumor.  Seeing the way Friedman/Zaidi and current ownership at work I find it near impossible that Yadier Alvarez would be included in a deal for Dozier.  That's not to say that they wouldn't trade Alvarez, but if they were trading a package that heavy, it would have gotten paired with a couple other pieces (like Bellinger) for Sale.  

 

Guggenheim ownership has been very clear since they took over in 2012.  They would spend like drunken sailors for 3-4 years while the farm could be built up from the shambles McCourt left it in and have the farm then produce at the ML level.  Well, they sure did satisfy the first part and farm is finally at that cusp now.  Look, a chunk of the prospects are going to flame out.  Every team has its Kevin Slowey or Greg Miller but ownership has been very clear about their process.  Turner and Jansen are probably the last big FA expenditures for the next 2 years until Gonzalez, Ethier, Crawford, McCarthy, Kazmir  , and all the other dead weight is off the books.  They will need to keep pieces like Bellinger to replace AGon and Will Smith potentially to replace Grandal in 2 years. Alvarez as a 20 year old who throws like Chapman as a starter with Better control from the right side that they just got done paying $32MM and who's performed well stateside is somebody they aren't going to trade as a headliner/2nd piece in a trade for a very good but not superstar player.  It runs counter to everything they've done to date.

 

Look, Dozier is a very good player.  He's been about 5WAR/yr for 3 years signed below market for 2 years.  Personally, I would expect JDL to be the headline piece.  That's a very good piece.  Sickels had him just below Giolito at the end of this past year.  I would expect some other good pieces but not Bellinger, Alvarez, and I'd put Buehler in that group as well.  I am not the highest on Buehler, but Gabe Kapler and him are BFF's.  Kap puts out videos of them working out in the gym together all the time.  The fortunate thing for the Twins if a deal is consummated is that the Dodgers 6th or 8th or 10th best prospects would easily rank as a top 3 in most systems so it would be like getting the 3 from the same system.  Also, I don't see them adding prospects of the caliber of Alvarez just to dump McCarthy/Kazmir. 

 

Markets are all about supply and demand.  If the Dodgers were left holding their nuts with Kenley going to WAS and MIN had Britton (again signed for 2 years at less than Kenley) then I would think a huge package could be had while Dodger fans ate from the $hit sandwich.  But the Dodgers need is very clear.  Improve at 1 position with a RH bat.  2nd base has Kinsler, Dozier, Forsythe, Solarte,  etc.  Or they could just keep Alvarez & JDL and sign Hwang from Korea.  If they choose OF instead of 2nd, there is always the proposed Puig, McCarthy, Sborz rumor for Braun.  Or others.

 

Again, just my .02.  Not trying to say "Twins, take it or leave it!"  Just what I see following it every day.

[King]

Preferring Buehler over JDL is fairly absurd stance at this point in time. I don't believe it

[Post-Concussive Blues]

Has anyone else noticed that DaveW is a partial anagram for both Thad Levine and Derek Falvey +W?

[Lonestar]

 

As for the other rumor, most think Buehler will be the fastest rising guy in their system.  The three guys who most who put on their untouchables list are Bellinger, Alvarez, and Buehler. Buehler was throwing 97 mph last fall. 

How would you rank the Dodgers top 10 prospects?

[beckmt]

Package White Sox got for Sale was better than the Dodgers had to offer.  This goes to almost all fans valueing their prospects better than they are.  DeLeon's top upside is a #2, many experts see him as a #3.  Twins already have a system with a number of #3 prospects There is no reason to trade Dozier with getting one pitcher that has a huge upside.  This may hold up the deal, but there is no reason to trade Dozier for other teams spare parts.  DeLeon has no clear path to the major leagues in the next year or two.  That is why he is being offered in this deal.  Twins need a better prospect than DeLeon, plus a lottery ticket to make this work.  It could be the second piece, but what I am reading, it seems to be the value of the third piece that is the holdup at this time.

[DaveW]

Yeah, the takes I see from Dodger fans seem to be valuing their own prospects (especially pitching prospects) far too highly. Twins fans do it as well though.

 

When I suggested that Berrios was closer to a #2 ceiling type pitcher than a true ace many people tried to say I was being to negative.

 

It happens, prospects these days typically get overhyped across the board. Grass is always greener etc etc

[1965GREATYEAR]

 

Package White Sox got for Sale was better than the Dodgers had to offer.  This goes to almost all fans valueing their prospects better than they are.  DeLeon's top upside is a #2, many experts see him as a #3.  Twins already have a system with a number of #3 prospects There is no reason to trade Dozier with getting one pitcher that has a huge upside.  This may hold up the deal, but there is no reason to trade Dozier for other teams spare parts.  DeLeon has no clear path to the major leagues in the next year or two.  That is why he is being offered in this deal.  Twins need a better prospect than DeLeon, plus a lottery ticket to make this work.  It could be the second piece, but what I am reading, it seems to be the value of the third piece that is the holdup at this time.

I agree that Twins deserve better   I don't think this trade will happen. LA won't create one hole to fill another and Twins deserve a fair return for Dozier.  Might be a chance at the trade deadline. In fact I don't believe this trade was ever imminent. Dodgers were interested but not at that price.  These things happen

[DodgerFan1234]

 

Package White Sox got for Sale was better than the Dodgers had to offer.  This goes to almost all fans valueing their prospects better than they are.  DeLeon's top upside is a #2, many experts see him as a #3.  Twins already have a system with a number of #3 prospects There is no reason to trade Dozier with getting one pitcher that has a huge upside.  This may hold up the deal, but there is no reason to trade Dozier for other teams spare parts.  DeLeon has no clear path to the major leagues in the next year or two.  That is why he is being offered in this deal.  Twins need a better prospect than DeLeon, plus a lottery ticket to make this work.  It could be the second piece, but what I am reading, it seems to be the value of the third piece that is the holdup at this time.

The first sentence is a matter of opinion and I'll accept it as that.  I firmly believe that you're right about TINSTAAPP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect).  The only thing I will mention about Yadier Alvarez as it directly ties to Sale is that the main piece going to the White Sox was Moncada.  The Dodgers offered (reported by Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus, can't remember this late) Moncada more money than the Red Sox if he just agreed to delay the signing until the following signing period so that they could specifically sign Alvarez.  He refused, so the Dodgers were faced with a decision, sign Moncada and be blocked from the next signing period.  Or pass on Moncada and sign Alvarez & others.  They chose Alvarez and to this point he's done nothing to show that was the wrong decision.  What his future holds, who knows.

 

As far as your statement about JDL having no clear path to the majors, have you seen the infirmary rotation Friedman and company set up last year/this next year?McCarthy, Kazmir, Wood, Ryu, Anderson(last year), and Rich (I've pitched 600 innings in 12 years) Hill.  Not to mention that Urias is still on a restricted workload.  Add to health that Kershaw, Hill, Urias, Wood, Kazmir, Ryu are all lefties.  JDL, assuming he stays with the Dodgers, has a clear path to the majors and could probably pitch 100 innings next year for the ML team.

[twins_89]

 

Yeah, the takes I see from Dodger fans seem to be valuing their own prospects (especially pitching prospects) far too highly. Twins fans do it as well though.

When I suggested that Berrios was closer to a #2 ceiling type pitcher than a true ace many people tried to say I was being to negative.

It happens, prospects these days typically get overhyped across the board. Grass is always greener etc etc

 

The danger of prospects is that people will look at their own and convince themselves that their prospects are the ones that will beat the odds. That's why A level prospects prospects like Alvarez and Lux (or Gordon and Kirilloff for the Twins) are to often seen as assets that are too valuable to trade when in reality the chance they end up busts is many times higher than the chance they ever become even average major league players. Based on fangraphs models the odds of those four producing less than 1 WAR before hitting free agency are around 70% (Alvarez), 85% (Lux),  55% (Gordon), and 75% (Kirilloff). 

 

De Leon and Bellinger on the other hand are different in that they are close to ready and have much lower bust rates (around 15%). Personally I'd value De Leon and Bellinger on a completely different level than A ball prospects and can understand why the Dodgers would be unlikely to include both in a deal for Dozier. 

 

That's why De Leon and Alvarez as the basis of a Dozier deal makes sense. The Twins get one low risk pitcher who will likely have some major league success (though De Leon developing into a top of the rotation start is still less that a 50-50 proposition) along with one high upside lottery ticket type of player. 

[beckmt]

 

The first sentence is a matter of opinion and I'll accept it as that.  I firmly believe that you're right about TINSTAAPP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect).  The only thing I will mention about Yadier Alvarez as it directly ties to Sale is that the main piece going to the White Sox was Moncada.  The Dodgers offered (reported by Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus, can't remember this late) Moncada more money than the Red Sox if he just agreed to delay the signing until the following signing period so that they could specifically sign Alvarez.  He refused, so the Dodgers were faced with a decision, sign Moncada and be blocked from the next signing period.  Or pass on Moncada and sign Alvarez & others.  They chose Alvarez and to this point he's done nothing to show that was the wrong decision.  What his future holds, who knows.

 

As far as your statement about JDL having no clear path to the majors, have you seen the infirmary rotation Friedman and company set up last year/this next year?McCarthy, Kazmir, Wood, Ryu, Anderson(last year), and Rich (I've pitched 600 innings in 12 years) Hill.  Not to mention that Urias is still on a restricted workload.  Add to health that Kershaw, Hill, Urias, Wood, Kazmir, Ryu are all lefties.  JDL, assuming he stays with the Dodgers, has a clear path to the majors and could probably pitch 100 innings next year for the ML team.

Deleon is being offered because the Dodger front office does not regard him as an integral part of the Dodgers plan.  Dodgers in the worst case. may be have give up more assets if injuries play as big a role as last year.  Most of the Twins higher starting pitchers will be in AA to start this year, and we will know by mid to end of season where upcoming pitchers stand.  Gonsalves, Stewart, Rosario, Thrope, and others all project into close to the #3 types.  Only Romaro (who will also start in AA, has a higher ceiling, and I may have missed a couple of more #3 types.  Assuming that most of these pitchers will be working on fastball command(something missing in the past), they may be a year later getting here, but hope the results will be better.  This is why the Twins need extra pitching help over the next couple of years, and the need decreases after 2018.  Plus the Twins have 3 draft picks in the top 40. 

Trading Dozier only makes sense in the starting in 2019 the Twins will have a window of opportunity(may be as early as 2018) to be a competitive team for the American League championship. 

Rays who have the other second base option might want Bellinger straight up or with additional lottery tickets for their second baseman.  Rays are considered to have excess pitching and even if you could convince them to take Deleon, it would only mean you have increase the risk of a better starting pitcher showing up in the national league with a team that is as good to close to as good as yours. 

Detroit would want prospects for Kinsler and you would have to extend him (which means you double his salary as luxury tax) and he is at a much higher rate over the next two years as Dozier. 

Doing nothing means if you decide you have to make the move after the season start means the price will be higher than now, because teams will know you are desperate.  And waiting for more teams to fall out of the race to lower the price, also means your chances may be gone before you can make the deal.

National League has Cubs, Nationals, Mets, Giants, Cardinals clubs as having decent chances to make the playoffs,  Then you have the Diamondbacks, Colorado(which has a good young nucleus), and Atlanta who could make noise.  Standing still is not an option for the Dodgers..

[Cory Engelhardt]

^{1500! Wow, this thread has been fun to follow and participate in.}

 

^{When do people think a trade will happen? I'm hoping asap, but I want the best trade possible. And really, I'd love for it to happen before the holidays and for sure the new year. Today would be nice though.}

 

^{DaveW, any new updates?}

[Loosey]

 

^{1500! Wow, this thread has been fun to follow and participate in.}

 

^{When do people think a trade will happen? I'm hoping asap, but I want the best trade possible. And really, I'd love for it to happen before the holidays and for sure the new year. Today would be nice though.}

 

^{DaveW, any new updates?}

Did anyone see the Town Hall last night?  Falvey and Levine basically were letting that 9 year old Dozier fan down lightly without straight up saying, they are trading him.  So I think a deal is coming.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Standing still is not an option for the Dodgers..

I'm not sure ultimatums are going to work here.

 

The Dodgers didn't do anything long-term at the position last year, and still got league average production out of the position.  That is certainly an option for them again in 2017.

 

Their only below-average position last year was LF, and they've already dropped Howie Kendrick and are probably looking for increased contributions from among Thompson, Toles, Puig, and Van Slyke.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another way to look at Yadier Alvarez: the Dodgers just signed him a year ago for a total cost of $32 million ($16 mil bonus + $16 mil penalty).

 

Elsewhere in this discussion, the surplus value of Dozier's remaining contract was pegged at $60 mil (based on the average of his performances the last 3 years).

 

So by including Alvarez, the Dodgers, in a way, would be giving back over half the surplus value they could reasonably expect out of Dozier.

[Steve Lein]

 

Did he really nail it or was he given the trade? No offense, but I don't buy into it for a minute. All it takes is a good relationship with a side of the party. One hand washes the other.

 

He suggested Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech as the potential package for Sale. At the July trade deadline.

[laloesch]

 

i saw 24 hours as arbitrary.

I love the Twins, but I think we're taking all of this a bit too seriously and personally. It's sports and a lot of fun.

I don't mean to gang up on you or anyone. I don't want to make anyone feel bad. I just want to feed our imaginations and have fun with solving the mystery of sorting out the rumors based on truth from the rumors trying to throw us off.

 

Really? I don't, but it's all good.  

 

However, with all do respect, Dave did say "Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours."  Not my words,his.  That is what he was saying last week and he vehemently defended it.     

[DocBauer]

Look, at the end if the day, this is ALL speculation at this point, even with informed sources and a fit for both clubs. But since we ARE talking speculation and theory here...along with quality information from various sources...then let's put it all together and say JDL and Alvarez are indeed the focal point. If the Dodgers would include Stewart or Buehler or whoever as a 3rd piece if the Twins would take McCarthy if their hands then this would be a MUST for the Twins.

 

The payroll should be under 109M fir the next couple of seasons yes? Even with signing Castro Plouffe and Suzuki are gone. Santiago COULD be released if necessary but figures to be fine by '18. Santana could yet be moved, Perkins is off the books after this year, and Mayer after '18.

 

There is a lot if payroll if the books and still to fall away. The rebuilding Twins could absolutely afford to eat a 20M deal to net them the prospects they want/need.

[Oxtung]

 

Dodger fan here.  I found this board here I'm sure like some other Dodger fans when reading about this trade rumor.  I've been a member under two of the older Dodger forums for almost 20 years (I'm old!) and I have to say this board is one of the better foreign team boards I've seen in my time.  You guys have some great/reasonable discussion going on.

 

I thought I'd just give my .02 on what I've read on this board and in particular to the inclusion of Alvarez into JDL.  This is my opinion, but it comes from a sick obsession of breathing Dodger information 24/7/365.  From reputable Dodger sources JDL has always been part of this trade rumor.  Seeing the way Friedman/Zaidi and current ownership at work I find it near impossible that Yadier Alvarez would be included in a deal for Dozier.  That's not to say that they wouldn't trade Alvarez, but if they were trading a package that heavy, it would have gotten paired with a couple other pieces (like Bellinger) for Sale.  

 

Guggenheim ownership has been very clear since they took over in 2012.  They would spend like drunken sailors for 3-4 years while the farm could be built up from the shambles McCourt left it in and have the farm then produce at the ML level.  Well, they sure did satisfy the first part and farm is finally at that cusp now.  Look, a chunk of the prospects are going to flame out.  Every team has its Kevin Slowey or Greg Miller but ownership has been very clear about their process.  Turner and Jansen are probably the last big FA expenditures for the next 2 years until Gonzalez, Ethier, Crawford, McCarthy, Kazmir  , and all the other dead weight is off the books.  They will need to keep pieces like Bellinger to replace AGon and Will Smith potentially to replace Grandal in 2 years. Alvarez as a 20 year old who throws like Chapman as a starter with Better control from the right side that they just got done paying $32MM and who's performed well stateside is somebody they aren't going to trade as a headliner/2nd piece in a trade for a very good but not superstar player.  It runs counter to everything they've done to date.

 

Look, Dozier is a very good player.  He's been about 5WAR/yr for 3 years signed below market for 2 years.  Personally, I would expect JDL to be the headline piece.  That's a very good piece.  Sickels had him just below Giolito at the end of this past year.  I would expect some other good pieces but not Bellinger, Alvarez, and I'd put Buehler in that group as well.  I am not the highest on Buehler, but Gabe Kapler and him are BFF's.  Kap puts out videos of them working out in the gym together all the time.  The fortunate thing for the Twins if a deal is consummated is that the Dodgers 6th or 8th or 10th best prospects would easily rank as a top 3 in most systems so it would be like getting the 3 from the same system.  Also, I don't see them adding prospects of the caliber of Alvarez just to dump McCarthy/Kazmir. 

 

Markets are all about supply and demand.  If the Dodgers were left holding their nuts with Kenley going to WAS and MIN had Britton (again signed for 2 years at less than Kenley) then I would think a huge package could be had while Dodger fans ate from the $hit sandwich.  But the Dodgers need is very clear.  Improve at 1 position with a RH bat.  2nd base has Kinsler, Dozier, Forsythe, Solarte,  etc.  Or they could just keep Alvarez & JDL and sign Hwang from Korea.  If they choose OF instead of 2nd, there is always the proposed Puig, McCarthy, Sborz rumor for Braun.  Or others.

 

Again, just my .02.  Not trying to say "Twins, take it or leave it!"  Just what I see following it every day.

 

You seem to be undervaluing Dozier.  He has the 15th most WAR in baseball over the last 3 seasons ahead of names like Freeman, Cespedes, Cano, Bautista, etc...; even if you think his 2016 HR binge is a fluke he is still a top 30 player.

 

One of the names ahead of Dozier is Kinsler. If the Dodgers can convince Detroit to trade him he would definitely be an upgrade over Dozier. However, he also is demanding an extension into his age 39 and potentially 40 seasons to waive his no trade clause; that makes me nervous personally.

 

Let's not pretend that Forsythe (if you can convince the Rays to trade him) or Solarte (how would he handle 2B fulltime?) are in the same discussion as Dozier. Braun is a better hitter than Dozier but he is an absolute butcher in the field.

 

Dozier's name is getting bandied about by the Press for a reason. He is the best fit for the Dodgers, a great player that fills their 2B need, has a team friendly contract, in his prime and is a fantastic leader by all accounts. There are other players that check some of those boxes but none that check them all.

[jimmer]

 

Who was the Fangraphs pundit who said De Leon and Calhoun sounded right.

 

Who was the Fangraphs pundit who said De Leon and Calhoun sounded right.

Paul Swydan

[jimmer]

 

You seem to be undervaluing Dozier.  He has the 15th most WAR in baseball over the last 3 seasons ahead of names like Freeman, Cespedes, Cano, Bautista, etc...; even if you think his 2016 HR binge is a fluke he is still a top 30 player.

 

One of the names ahead of Dozier is Kinsler. If the Dodgers can convince Detroit to trade him he would definitely be an upgrade over Dozier. However, he also is demanding an extension into his age 39 and potentially 40 seasons to waive his no trade clause; that makes me nervous personally.

 

Let's not pretend that Forsythe (if you can convince the Rays to trade him) or Solarte (how would he handle 2B fulltime?) are in the same discussion as Dozier. Braun is a better hitter than Dozier but he is an absolute butcher in the field.

 

Dozier's name is getting bandied about by the Press for a reason. He is the best fit for the Dodgers, a great player that fills their 2B need, has a team friendly contract, in his prime and is a fantastic leader by all accounts. There are other players that check some of those boxes but none that check them all.

Dozier is also 30 and only has two years of retainabililty. 

[Oxtung]

 

Dozier is also 30 and only has two years of retainabililty. 

 

Kinsler has 2, Solarte 3, Forsythe 2. Braun has 5 but he will be 37 and is already a butcher in the OF; I shudder to think what he will be at that stage of his career. The Dodgers could pick someone up in FA to a longer contract but there isn't much available.

[Major League Ready]

 

Another way to look at Yadier Alvarez: the Dodgers just signed him a year ago for a total cost of $32 million ($16 mil bonus + $16 mil penalty).

 

Elsewhere in this discussion, the surplus value of Dozier's remaining contract was pegged at $60 mil (based on the average of his performances the last 3 years).

 

So by including Alvarez, the Dodgers, in a way, would be giving back over half the surplus value they could reasonably expect out of Dozier.

This is interesting because its more about perception than reality.  This is pretty much the definition of a sunk cost.  That cost does not go away regardless of what they do with him.  There is no way to recover it and he cost the same as any other prospect going forward.   I doubt they consider the acquisition cost at this point.

[jimmer]

 

Kinsler has 2, Solarte 3, Forsythe 2. Braun has 5 but he will be 37 and is already a butcher in the OF; I shudder to think what he will be at that stage of his career. The Dodgers could pick someone up in FA to a longer contract but there isn't much available.

I haven't looked into Braun cause he's not an IF. None of the other are worth much either.  Dozier isn't worth what many think either.

[jimmer]

 

Cameron is way to much of a homer for me to take his non mariners related prospect trade takes seriously.

Thats just my personal view.

I think if you believe Cameron is too much of a Mariners homer, you really don't read much of his stuff. Just because he started the U.S.S Mariner 15 years ago or so doesn't mean much nowadays.  He's way past that and focuses on baseball overall as the managing editor of Fangraphs the last 7 years. Here's a guy who nailed what it would take for Boston to get Sale back in July. Cameron gets a ton of things right. He doesn't get invited to ESPN and MLB network to talk Mariner stuff, it's baseball overall. 

 

I also think because of all the unnecessary, and sometimes over the line, bashing you've taken over this, you are overly sensitive to any contradictory opinion.

 

Just my view, man.