DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

[Major League Ready]

 

I think you are mis-interpreting -- obviously the money is already spent.  But it can serve as a proxy for value -- it's a data point suggesting that Alvarez was worth ~$32 mil just a year ago.  And that has probably increased a bit now that he's had a healthy and successful transition so far; maybe even further because prospects like him are harder to acquire now with the hard cap on international spending.

So, let’s just say for the sake of argument that the Dodgers had signed another international prospect.  The other prospect is almost exactly the same age but was signed 3 years earlier as a 16 year old for $100K.  Now, almost 5 years later, the player that was signed as a 16 year old has grown up to be the exact same size as Alvarez and the two of them have identical stuff.   They have identical delivers, build, and any other factor by which a pitcher can be judged, they are identical.   Every ranking system has them ranked nearly identically.

 

Does Alvarez have more value to any other team in a trade?  Does the prospect the Dodgers signed for $100K have less value to the Dodgers?

If have 100 shares of stock, is the value any different if I purchased it at $100/share or $200 share.

 

What the Dodgers paid for Alvarez is absolutely irrelevant to his value in a trade.

[Major League Ready]

 

So, let’s just say for the sake of argument that the Dodgers had signed another international prospect.  The other prospect is almost exactly the same age but was signed 3 years earlier as a 16 year old for $100K.  Now, almost 5 years later, the player that was signed as a 16 year old has grown up to be the exact same size as Alvarez and the two of them have identical stuff.   They have identical delivers, build, and any other factor by which a pitcher can be judged, they are identical.   Every ranking system has them ranked nearly identically.

 

Does Alvarez have more value to any other team in a trade?  Does the prospect the Dodgers signed for $100K have less value to the Dodgers?

If have 100 shares of stock, is the value any different if I purchased it at $100/share or $200 share.

 

What the Dodgers paid for Alvarez is absolutely irrelevant to his value in a trade. 

 

[Wyorev]

The saying is "for all in tents and porpoises" it's supposed to be used in situations where you are addressing people who are camping and dolphins.

This sort of baseball insight is the very reason I love Twins Daily!

If only the next season can be half as great as this thread!

[Han Joelo]

 

So, let’s just say for the sake of argument that the Dodgers had signed another international prospect.  The other prospect is almost exactly the same age but was signed 3 years earlier as a 16 year old for $100K.  Now, almost 5 years later, the player that was signed as a 16 year old has grown up to be the exact same size as Alvarez and the two of them have identical stuff.   They have identical delivers, build, and any other factor by which a pitcher can be judged, they are identical.   Every ranking system has them ranked nearly identically.

 

Does Alvarez have more value to any other team in a trade?  Does the prospect the Dodgers signed for $100K have less value to the Dodgers?

If have 100 shares of stock, is the value any different if I purchased it at $100/share or $200 share.

 

What the Dodgers paid for Alvarez is absolutely irrelevant to his value in a trade.

I started to try and figure out what Spycake meant with this yesterday, but I saw a squirrel, so...

 

I guess on a financial spreadsheet, the Dodgers could recoup some of the money they've invested in Alvarez by acquiring "surplus value" in the form of Dozier.  Might help balance their books, in a wonky way that only billionaires who don't pay taxes would understand.  Actually, now that I think about it, they probably want to keep Alvarez, so that at some point down the road, they can somehow "write off" that $30 mil as a loss--after his arm inevitably falls off.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So, let’s just say for the sake of argument that the Dodgers had signed another international prospect.  The other prospect is almost exactly the same age but was signed 3 years earlier as a 16 year old for $100K.  Now, almost 5 years later, the player that was signed as a 16 year old has grown up to be the exact same size as Alvarez and the two of them have identical stuff.   They have identical delivers, build, and any other factor by which a pitcher can be judged, they are identical.   Every ranking system has them ranked nearly identically.

 

Does Alvarez have more value to any other team in a trade?  Does the prospect the Dodgers signed for $100K have less value to the Dodgers?

If have 100 shares of stock, is the value any different if I purchased it at $100/share or $200 share.

 

What the Dodgers paid for Alvarez is absolutely irrelevant to his value in a trade.

 

I agree with your hypothetical.  Alvarez should be no more valued by the Twins than an identical player with a lower signing bonus.  But it's not at all what I was trying to say.

 

The Dodgers very recently spent $32 million on Alvarez.  Do you think the Dodgers did it so that just one year later they could include him in a package to add ~$28 mil surplus value at second base?  If that was their intent, they probably would have simply bid harder for Ben Zobrist in free agency last winter, no?  Skipped Alvarez if they needed to, and kept their other prospects.

 

My contention is, they more likely invested $32 million in Alvarez with the intent of trading him for (or developing him into) more surplus value than just ~$28 mil.  Sorta like the Red Sox with Moncada and Sale (most estimates have the Red Sox adding ~$50 mil of surplus value in that swap, above Moncada's bonus).

 

Now, the $32 million has indeed been spent, so they Dodgers could certainly change their intent with Alvarez as circumstances warrant, but it was so recent, and the early returns on Alvarez have been so positive (albeit limited), that I would be surprised if they are ready to change that intent quite yet.

 

Of course, you could make the same argument, just generically saying the Dodgers value Alvarez more, and hypothetical identical player with zero signing bonus could receive this same present valuation from the Dodgers.  But this very recent bonus is an actual tangible data point that helps support that generic argument, so I thought it was worth presenting.  It's just another data point which suggests that Alvarez is not part of this offer, at least not as commonly described.

[jimmer]

Nobody is being forced to read comments on this thread or to post in the thread. People keep taking shots at Dave on here (some veiled, some obvious) for zero reason and after moderators said to knock it off.

 

I, for one, like this thread. There has been,mostly, good conversation on it. No one is forcing anyone to read it or make comments.

[drjim]

Plus what else is there really to talk about?

[Vanimal46]

 

Plus what else is there really to talk about?

Justin Haley, clearly..... 

[jimmer]

Plus what else is there really to talk about?

the caravan or the 6 people just signed to minor league deals? :-)

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Nobody is being forced to read comments on this thread or to post in the thread. People keep taking shots at Dave on here (some veiled, some obvious) for zero reason and after moderators said to knock it off.

I, for one, like this thread. There has been,mostly, good conversation on it. No one is forcing anyone to read it or make comments.

 

Same. I'm enjoying this thread for sure. No one is forcing anyone to read anything on the internet at all.

[DaveW]

Dave what happened bud?

Nothing it's still on.

[crapforks]

Bellinger would be great, but I don't see him as the deal breaker, and I don't think the Dodgers want to include him. DeLeon is talked about as the centerpiece; 1 or 1a, however you want to see it. It seems that his inclusion isn't really debated much. Alvarez seems like he could be the deal breaker. I think that most of us on this board would jump at DeLeon and Alvarez, and if it is pieces 3 and 4 holding the deal up, that's frustrating. However, if Alvarez is off the table, as some have suggested, would DeLeon and two of Lux, Sheffield, Buehler or Calhoun be Palatable?

 

I have no more info (actually, probably much less) than any of you, but it seems like Bellinger is not someone the Dodgers want to part with, or someone the Twins would insist upon. The argument for Alvarez not being included (the heavy investment that is looking good early) makes a lot of sense and I wouldn't want my team including a prospect like that for obvious reasons. All indications are Stewart will be in line to pitch a good portion if the season with the big-league club; i.e. in their immediate plans. 

[DaveW]

Bellinger isn't involved in the trade talks. At least from everything I have been told.

[crapforks]

 

Bellinger isn't involved in the trade talks. At least from everything I have been told.

Have you heard anything specific about Alvarez recently?

[Physics Guy]

 

Bellinger isn't involved in the trade talks. At least from everything I have been told.

From KLaw Chat:

 

Jeff: Speaking only in terms of fit, and not expected cost to acquire, is Logan Forsythe, Brian Dozier or Yangervis Solarte the best option for the Dodgers current roster?

 

Klaw: Dozier’s a legitimate all-star, and if they can acquire him without giving up Bellinger or Verdugo I’d do it. Those two kids are close to major-league ready with huge upsides, and I don’t think I’d part with either for Dozier’s age-30 and -31 seasons.

[laloesch]

 

For
9ish
France
Loria
I very rarely read fiction, for better or worse

 

9ish?   wow.  

 

Maybe a 2 or 3 and that's giving them credit for what they did back in the 60's.

[mazeville]

Jon Heyman says lots of teams are in on Dozier but "Dodgers make most sense."

 

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/809834898399854594

[drjim]

9ish? wow.

 

Maybe a 2 or 3 and that's giving them credit for what they did back in the 60's.

Fair enough, I basically made up a number. Haven't thought about the org much, but haven't really needed to for a while.

 

But yes, Dozier. Another nice little leak to Heyman.

[crapforks]

 

Jon Heyman says lots of teams are in on Dozier but "Dodgers make most sense."

 

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/809834898399854594

Why are other teams not named. Nobody can think of a good on-paper fit outside of LAD

[mazeville]

 

Why are other teams not named. Nobody can think of a good on-paper fit outside of LAD

 

Well, a FEW teams could probably use a second baseman coming off a 42-homer season. But the Dodgers definitely make the most sense, especially as both the Los Angeles Angels and NY Mets took care of their problems at the position this offseason.

[King]

Jeff Passan
‏@JeffPassan
Sources: Dodgers have shown willingness to include top pitching prospect Jose DeLeon in a deal for Brian Dozier. Would be strong headliner.

 

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan  11m11 minutes ago
DeLeon makes a lot of sense for Twins, who could use young SP to complement young core. Dodgers extremely deep in near-ML-ready SP, too.

[Squirrel]

Please stay to topic. If you want to talk about the ACLU, vacations, steroids in baseball, etc ... please start a new thread in the proper forum.

 

This thread took a huge veer off course and since 'righting the ship' it's been pretty good. Let's keep it in that realm, please.

[Lonestar]

I think there is too much emphasis on acquiring pitching (especially Alvarez) on behalf of most Twins posters and too much emphasis on protecting certain pitchers (Alvarez and Buehler) on the part of our Dodger visitors.

 

I for one am tickled with DeLeon as a centerpiece or 1a. He checks the box for controllable pitching – a likely #3 with as much upside as downside. I can see the Dodgers not giving up both Bellinger and DeLeon. By everyone but Fangraphs, Verdugo ranks above Alvarez. If the choice came down to DeLeon + Verdugo or DeLeon + Alvarez, I would go with Verdugo unless the extra piece(s) made a difference. Verdugo would be ready in 2018.

[mazeville]

Lots of Dozier chatter today between Passan and Heyman, suggests to me deal is close.

 

Wonder if we should start a new thread. 

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, here's the Heyman tweet

 

[King]

Feels like it's about to happen fellas.

[d-mac]

 

I think there is too much emphasis on acquiring pitching (especially Alvarez) on behalf of most Twins posters and too much emphasis on protecting certain pitchers (Alvarez and Buehler) on the part of our Dodger visitors.

I for one am tickled with DeLeon as a centerpiece or 1a. He checks the box for controllable pitching – a likely #3 with as much upside as downside. I can see the Dodgers not giving up both Bellinger and DeLeon. By everyone but Fangraphs, Verdugo ranks above Alvarez. If the choice came down to DeLeon + Verdugo or DeLeon + Alvarez, I would go with Verdugo unless the extra piece(s) made a difference. Verdugo would be ready in 2018.

 

I'm just not crazy about Verdugo. His minor league track record doesn't indicate much. He doesn't strike out much and is young for his leagues, but doesn't hit for power, have any significant speed, or draw a high amount of walks. a wRC+ of 113 in AA doesn't do much for me. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm just not crazy about Verdugo. His minor league track record doesn't indicate much. He doesn't strike out much and is young for his leagues, but doesn't hit for power, have any significant speed, or draw a high amount of walks. a wRC+ of 113 in AA doesn't do much for me. 

And doesn't fit an obvious need.  Dodgers have pitching that we should be targeting.  

[mazeville]

I'm guessing that the trade is close. Getting a couple national writers to talk actual players usually means things are happening.

 

I also wonder if the Twins would trade Santana should they get DeLeon and Stewart back ...

[crapforks]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/brian-dozier-trade-rumors-dodgers-jose-deleon-twins.html