DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

[TheLeviathan]

 

Adding another Santiago and Escobar isn't going to make the Twins great, either.  I don't see why the Twins should take 50 cents on the dollar back in any Dozier trade.  If they don't like the deal, walk away.  That's not the same as saying don't trade him.  

 

The Twins have a very good nucleus and have the parts to be a playoff caliber offense without really doing much.  They also should upgrade their defense just by not playing Santana and Grossman as much.  They need to improve the rotation.  Ideally, they add better starters but they should also add better bullpen arms (and let May get another shot in the rotation).  But adding guys - even with years of control - that are in the Santiago, Milone, 2016 Hughes etc isn't really going to improve the rotation. Hell, the Twins could sign Ivan Nova or Tyson Ross and not trade Dozier. De leon looks like a #3 type.  Which is nice but I'd probably want more.  

 

I'm pretty thoroughly on the record of disagreeing with this line of thinking (unless the package is one of those hang up the phone kinds of ridiculous ones), but I'd suggest to you that there is plenty of risk in keeping Dozier as well.

 

I think both teams, rightly, think they have leverage here.  I wonder if they're both playing front office chicken with these negotiations.

[gunnarthor]

 

People toss the phrase #3 starter around like it's a dirty word (almost).  When is the last time the twins had a consistent #3 starter?  Santana for 1.5 years?  If we had a staff full of them, my guess is we would pretty good.  If DeLeon is a #3, and Berrios, and moving forward a few others (prospects), I would argue we would be very competitive.  

 

I am not sure who you comparing Santiago to?

 

Trading Dozier for a #3 starter and maybe another #3 starter, to me is worth it.  Of course my hope is DeLeon and Alvarez (or whomever we may get) exceeds that, than even better.  Gibson, Santiago, and so far May and Berrios are not anywhere close to #3 starters at this time.

Sure, there's nothing wrong with a #3 starter.  But I don't want anymore back-end guys - and Brock Stewart, despite his nice year, is still a back end starter.  Tryce Thompson and Willie Calhoun also seem more like 4th OF and UI to me.  If the return is De Leon (who has his own set of question marks) and a couple guys like Stewart or Thompson, pass on it.  Sign Nova or Ross instead.  The offensive loss of Dozier is not made up by that package.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Santiago has been tendered.
I don't believe the Twins can release him and get out of his salary at this point.

Technically, as an arb-eligible player, the Twins can cut Santiago by March 15th and only owe him one month termination pay (roughly 1/6th of his salary).  That's pretty rare, and I am sure the Twins won't do that to Santiago, of course.  It did happen to Emilio Bonifacio a few years ago.

[1965GREATYEAR]

 

I'm beginning to think that all of the speculation has been off. As in, if it were as easy as any of the prior 3 player packages that have been discussed, it would have already happened. In that case, I'm hopeful that maybe we can get them to offer higher quality in a smaller package. IE, maybe Urias isn't off the table, and the Twins are being bulldogs about it? 

No Urias. The Dodgers are not going to trade a Mexican star pitcher for Dozier.   It will never happen. You guys have to come to Socal and understand why, I guess.

[1965GREATYEAR]

 

Except that it's been rumored De Leon and Alvarez are already offered and the hold up is whomever is the #3 and maybe the #4.  I'm saying if we miss our on getting De Leon and Alvarez because of haggling over #3 and #4 pieces, it's a failure.

 

And, to speak to your first point, while I understand the Twins want Bellinger or Alvarez, I'm not sure wise is the word I'd use if a deal fails because they couldn't get one of them.  Not getting Alvarez or Bellinger shouldn't be a deal buster.

 

For me, if they CAN get De Leon and Bellinger/Alvarez, then they'd be smart to take it regardless of who else is in there (or if there even IS anyone else).

I know longer believe in the validity of the rumor as stated. If they rumor trade was true in any way the deal would be complete as we both agreed on that point.

It would be wise for Twins to hold out because today is Dec 15th. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Sure, there's nothing wrong with a #3 starter.  But I don't want anymore back-end guys - and Brock Stewart, despite his nice year, is still a back end starter.  Tryce Thompson and Willie Calhoun also seem more like 4th OF and UI to me.  If the return is De Leon (who has his own set of question marks) and a couple guys like Stewart or Thompson, pass on it.  Sign Nova or Ross instead.  The offensive loss of Dozier is not made up by that package.

 

I would normally agree, but seeing how volatile Dozier's 1st half and 2nd half splits are the past three years and seeing as if there is another ugly split in 2017 we likely will not know which will be the good half going in, I really think he has to be moved now and not chance a better return mid-season.

 

As a fan I do see the Twins over a barrel in this sense, though I don't assume that any negotiating team will actually be able to use this particular barrel against them. Yet.

[DaveW]

Just realized this thread is at 1550 posts and I haven't contributed anything. And I still haven't. That is all.

Ditto

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Ditto

 

Somehow I don't know if I believe this

[Major League Ready]

 

Except that it's been rumored De Leon and Alvarez are already offered and the hold up is whomever is the #3 and maybe the #4.  I'm saying if we miss our on getting De Leon and Alvarez because of haggling over #3 and #4 pieces, it's a failure.

 

And, to speak to your first point, while I understand the Twins want Bellinger or Alvarez, I'm not sure wise is the word I'd use if a deal fails because they couldn't get one of them.  Not getting Alvarez or Bellinger shouldn't be a deal buster.

 

For me, if they CAN get De Leon and Bellinger/Alvarez, then they'd be smart to take it regardless of who else is in there (or if there even IS anyone else).

It's hard to believe they would kill the deal over the 3rd or 4th piece.  The two primary pieces are by far the most significant value.  Something else must be slowing down the process.

[mazeville]

 

It's hard to believe they would kill the deal over the 3rd or 4th piece.  The two primary pieces are by far the most significant value.  Something must be slowing down the process.

 

They're not going to hold up the deal over the third or fourth piece. If something is holding the deal up, it's over Alvarez.

 

My guess is the Twins want Alvarez and the Dodgers want to give up someone else.

[gunnarthor]

From Jeff Todd's mlbtraderumor's chat today:

 

Petet
2:44 Hey jeff, whats the likelihood of the dozier trade happening?
Jeffrey Todd
2:45 More likely than me going to Fangraphs, I guess. Still makes better sense than Kinsler, just b/c of the no-trade protection he has.
2:46 I still am unsure whether the Dodgers will really give something that gets the Twins excited. If they don't, I'd have to think the new FO won't mind the idea of keeping a very marketable player, esp since their young talent still leaves them some upside.

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

From Jeff Todd's mlbtraderumor's chat today:

 

Petet
2:44 Hey jeff, whats the likelihood of the dozier trade happening?
Jeffrey Todd
2:45 More likely than me going to Fangraphs, I guess. Still makes better sense than Kinsler, just b/c of the no-trade protection he has.
2:46 I still am unsure whether the Dodgers will really give something that gets the Twins excited. If they don't, I'd have to think the new FO won't mind the idea of keeping a very marketable player, esp since their young talent still leaves them some upside.

 

Saw that too. I hope he is wrong about keeping him.

[Platoon]

Just realized this thread is at 1550 posts and I haven't contributed anything. And I still haven't. That is all.

That's not all! I finally figured out what was missing in almost 1600 posts? A CB update!

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

How would you rank the Dodgers top 10 prospects?

That's tough.  Deleon and Stewart are big league ready.  So, I'm not sure if prospects who are big league ready are usually ranked higher because they are finished product than someone like Bellinger or Alvarez so I will just rank them by how I value them.

 

1. Bellinger

2.Deleon

3 Buehler

4. Alvarez

5  Toles

6. Stewart

7. Verdugo

8. Calhoun

 

That's my top 8 if you include Toles as a prospect.  There are a whole slew of guys that I could list 9 or 10 whether it be Diaz, Sheffield, Sborz and on.  I could throw a dart at about 10 of them for those two spots.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

That's tough.  Deleon and Stewart are big league ready.  So, I'm not sure if prospects who are big league ready are usually ranked higher because they are finished product than someone like Bellinger or Alvarez so I will just rank them by how I value them.

 

1. Bellinger

2.Deleon

3 Buehler

4. Alvarez

5  Toles

6. Stewart

7. Verdugo

8. Calhoun

 

That's my top 8 if you include Toles as a prospect.  There are a whole slew of guys that I could list 9 or 10 whether it be Diaz, Sheffield, Sborz and on.  I could throw a dart at about 10 of them for those two spots.  

 

Mine is a little different, in that I have (as far as prospects I'd want the Twins to get)

#1 Alvarez #1

#2 Bellinger

#3 De Leon

#4 Buehler

#5 Stewart

#6 Verdugo

#7 Lux

 

And after that, I wouldn't put Toles or Trayce Thompson in there, but they would help too. I'd even like Thompson more than Toles.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Except that it's been rumored De Leon and Alvarez are already offered and the hold up is whomever is the #3 and maybe the #4.  I'm saying if we miss our on getting De Leon and Alvarez because of haggling over #3 and #4 pieces, it's a failure.

 

And, to speak to your first point, while I understand the Twins want Bellinger or Alvarez, I'm not sure wise is the word I'd use if a deal fails because they couldn't get one of them.  Not getting Alvarez or Bellinger shouldn't be a deal buster.

 

For me, if they CAN get De Leon and Bellinger/Alvarez, then they'd be smart to take it regardless of who else is in there (or if there even IS anyone else).

If Deleon AND Alvarez were on the table I have a hard time believing the Twins are haggling over a 3rd and 4th prospect.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Mine is a little different, in that I have (as far as prospects I'd want the Twins to get)

#1 Alvarez #1

#2 Bellinger

#3 De Leon

#4 Buehler

#5 Stewart

#6 Verdugo

#7 Lux

 

And after that, I wouldn't put Toles or Trayce Thompson in there, but they would help too. I'd even like Thompson more than Toles.

They can definitely throw out a great rotation at AAA if the kids remain blocked.  Deleon, Stewart, Oaks, and De Jong, will all be knocking at the door next year with Sborz not far behind.  The only reason I ranked Buehler ahead of Alvarez is that he is going to move up much faster.  They will baby Alvarez a lot more.  It wouldn't be shocking to see Buehler finsh the season in the Dodgers pen in September.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

They can definitely throw out a great rotation at AAA if the kids remain blocked.  Deleon, Stewart, Oaks, and De Jong, will all be knocking at the door next year with Sborz not far behind.  The only reason I ranked Buehler ahead of Alvarez is that he is going to move up much faster.  They will baby Alvarez a lot more.  It wouldn't be shocking to see Buehler finsh the season in the Dodgers pen in September.

 

Yeah, this isn't their order of prospects, this is the order of who I would want the Twins to get, as a Twins fan. Maybe other people see it differently. Buehler does seem really interesting for sure too.

Thanks!

[jimmer]

 

That's tough.  Deleon and Stewart are big league ready.  So, I'm not sure if prospects who are big league ready are usually ranked higher because they are finished product than someone like Bellinger or Alvarez so I will just rank them by how I value them.

 

1. Bellinger

2.Deleon

3 Buehler

4. Alvarez

5  Toles

6. Stewart

7. Verdugo

8. Calhoun

 

That's my top 8 if you include Toles as a prospect.  There are a whole slew of guys that I could list 9 or 10 whether it be Diaz, Sheffield, Sborz and on.  I could throw a dart at about 10 of them for those two spots.  

Depends on the people doing the prospect listings.  MLB dot com prospect people take into account how close they are to the majors.  That's a consideration for them.  It's why they have Alvarez at #5.

 

 

 

 

[Monkeypaws]

I can see Falvey on the blower to LA: "Buehler ... Buehler...."

[jimmer]

 

Mine is a little different, in that I have (as far as prospects I'd want the Twins to get)

#1 Alvarez #1

#2 Bellinger

#3 De Leon

#4 Buehler

#5 Stewart

#6 Verdugo

#7 Lux

 

And after that, I wouldn't put Toles or Trayce Thompson in there, but they would help too. I'd even like Thompson more than Toles.

In the order I'd want to trade for them, say in a Dozier trade, I'd go:

 

Bellinger
Alvarez
Buehler
De Leon
Stewart
Verdugo
Sheffield

[jimmer]

 

I can see Falvey on the blower to LA: "Buehler ... Buehler...."

Apparently Levine believes we have an Ace type prospect in the system already.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Apparently Levine believes we have an Ace type prospect in the system already.

 

But, the more the merrier, right?

[jimmer]

 

But, the more the merrier, right?

yeah, I'm trying to wrap my head around the idea we already have one.  Doubtful.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Check out how

 

yeah, I'm trying to wrap my head around the idea we already have one.  Doubtful.

 

Fernando Romero absolutely has the potential to be one. He isn't one yet, but he can be. Outside of him, I don't know if they meant someone else.

 

Brice Zimmerman, the Fort Myers Miracle radio announcer, said Romero this year was as unhittable as any pitcher he had seen pitch in the Florida State League, and compared him to Noah Syndegaard and Matt Harvey's pitching while they were in the FSL.

 

We can only hope.

[jimmer]

 

Check out how

 

 

Fernando Romero absolutely has the potential to be one. He isn't one yet, but he can be. Outside of him, I don't know if they meant someone else.

 

Brice Zimmerman, the Fort Myers Miracle radio announcer, said Romero this year was as unhittable as any pitcher he had seen pitch in the Florida State League, and compared him to Noah Syndegaard and Matt Harvey's pitching while they were in the FSL.

 

We can only hope.

'Scouting Report

Despite a healthy season that included plenty of strike-throwing, as well as glimpses of upper-90s velocity, Romero’s delivery and body concern scouts. Romero doesn’t incorporate his lower half into his delivery and instead relies almost entirely on his arm to generate a fastball in the 93-98 mph range. Romero has already had an ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction. He made 16 starts this season after making 15 combined starts from 2012 through 2015, but he was still touching 96 during instructional league.

 

Romero’s slider projects to plus. It’s hard, 86-90, breaks late and has surprising vertical action for a slider at that velocity. It’s his primary weapon against both left- and right-handed hitters. Romero’s changeup projection is tough to nail down. He’ll flash an above-average one but Romero’s delivery and athleticism aren’t the sort that usually elicit significant changeup projection. On the other hand, this is a 21-year-old who essentially missed two full seasons due to injury, and he hasn’t had much chance to develop that change. Independent of the concerns about the health and delivery, I think Romero has a mid-rotation starter’s repertoire. The concerns about the body, athleticism and delivery add to the pool of risk. If he can get another healthy season under his belt, Romero could be near the top of this list next year.'

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

'Scouting Report

Despite a healthy season that included plenty of strike-throwing, as well as glimpses of upper-90s velocity, Romero’s delivery and body concern scouts. Romero doesn’t incorporate his lower half into his delivery and instead relies almost entirely on his arm to generate a fastball in the 93-98 mph range. Romero has already had an ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction. He made 16 starts this season after making 15 combined starts from 2012 through 2015, but he was still touching 96 during instructional league.

 

Romero’s slider projects to plus. It’s hard, 86-90, breaks late and has surprising vertical action for a slider at that velocity. It’s his primary weapon against both left- and right-handed hitters. Romero’s changeup projection is tough to nail down. He’ll flash an above-average one but Romero’s delivery and athleticism aren’t the sort that usually elicit significant changeup projection. On the other hand, this is a 21-year-old who essentially missed two full seasons due to injury, and he hasn’t had much chance to develop that change. Independent of the concerns about the health and delivery, I think Romero has a mid-rotation starter’s repertoire. The concerns about the body, athleticism and delivery add to the pool of risk. If he can get another healthy season under his belt, Romero could be near the top of this list next year.'

Who wrote this? Just curious.

[jimmer]

 

Who wrote this? Just curious.

Prospect guy at Fangraphs

 

'http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-minnesota-twins/'

 

At the end of his evaluation of the farm system he wrote:

 

'The system is more interesting than it is good or deep and whomever the Twins draft No. 1 overall next year will instantly become their top prospect.'

[Cory Engelhardt]

Prospect guy at Fangraphs

 

'http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-minnesota-twins/'

 

At the end of his evaluation of the farm system he wrote:

 

'The system is more interesting than it is good or deep and whomever the Twins draft No. 1 overall next year will instantly become their top prospect.'

Got it, yeah I read that. Just saying, Romero is the guy they are talking about

[Lonestar]

I think both teams, rightly, think they have leverage here.  I wonder if they're both playing front office chicken with these negotiations.

The Twins can keep Dozier. The Dodgers can make essentially the same offer for Forsythe that they are making for Dozier.

 

Earlier we had a thread on the ideal trade for Dozier. Should not the question be (for Twins fans): What is the least you would take for Dozier?