Setting the framework for a potential Dozier trade

[markos]

I thought it would be useful to look at recent trades to attempt to get a sense for the expected return in a potential Dozier trade. I specifically looked at trades involving position players who had at least one team-friendly season of control remaining. Unfortunately, there isn't an exact mirror to the Dozier situation, but hopefully these past trades (or attempted trades) will provide a decent outline. Also, there is a strong possibility that I'm missing some trades.

 

In reverse-chronological order:

 

Jonathan Lucroy to Rangers – Trade Deadline 2016

> Jonathan Lucroy (2016-2017)
> Jeremy Jeffress (2016-2019)
-------------------------------------------------------------
< Lewis Brinson (top 20 CF prospect)
< Luis Ortiz (top 50-75 RHSP prospect)
< Ryan Cordell (24yo OF @ AA)

 

Jonathan Lucroy to Indians (aborted) – Trade Deadline 2016

> Jonathan Lucroy (2016-2017)

-------------------------------------------------------------
< Francisco Mejia (top 50-75 C prospect, potentially much higher now. 20yo. might be best C prospect)
< Yu-Cheng Chang (20yo SS @ A+)
< Greg Allen (23yo CF @ A+)
< Shawn Armstrong (26yo RHRP @ AAA)

 

Carlos Gomez to Astros – Trade Deadline 2015
> Carlos Gomez (2015-2016)
> Mike Fiers (2015-2019)
-------------------------------------------------------------
< Josh Hader (top 100 LHSP prospect. 21yo @ AA)
< Brett Phillips (top 50-75 CF. 21yo @ AA)
< Domingo Santana (22yo corner OF. 2016-2021)
< Adrian Houser (22yo RHSP @ AA)

 

Carlos Gomez to Mets (aborted) – Trade Deadline 2015

> Carlos Gomez
-------------------------------------------------------------
< Zack Wheeler (25yo RHSP. 2016-2019. TJ-surgery)
< Wilmer Flores (23yo SS. 2016-2019)
 

Jason Heyward to Cardinals – Pre-2015

> Jason Heyward (2015)
> Jordan Walden (2015-2017)
-------------------------------------------------------------
< Shelby Miller (24yo RHSP. 2015-2018)
< Tyrell Jenkins (21yo RHSP @ A+)

 

Josh Donaldson to Blue Jays – Pre-2015

> Josh Donaldson (2015-2018)
-------------------------------------------------------------
< Brett Lawrie (25yo 3B. 2015-2017)
< Franklin Barreto (top 75-85 prospect. 19yo SS @ A-)
< Sean Nolin (24yo LHSP @ AAA)
< Kendall Graveman (23yo RHSP @ AAA)

Justin Upton to Padres – Pre-2015

> Justin Upton (2015)
> Aaron Northcraft (24yo RHRP)
-------------------------------------------------------------
< Max Fried (20yo LHSP. TJ-recovery. top-50 prospect pre-injury)
< Dustin Peterson (20yo LF @ A)
< Jace Peterson (24yo 2B. 2015-2020)
< Mallex Smith (21yo CF @ A+)
 

[markos]

Looking at all these trades, I think the framework for any Dozier deal should be:

 

1) A headline piece: elite prospect (like Brinson or Mejia) or young, average regular with upside (like Wheeler, Miller, Lawrie)

2) A support piece: another top-100 prospect, probably in the 50-100 range.

3) A depth piece: back of rotation, bullpen, utility infielder or 4th-outfield type. Either in majors or high-minors.

[Rosterman]

You have to remember that Dozier is still only a two-year player for the trading team and they would have to take the chance on extending him, or thinking he may not be worth it come age 31. That's a tough decision to make (the same the Twins have to make right now...trade him or extend him...as his trade value will decrease in some ways if they play him another year and, say, he doesn't mimic his 2016 season on the posiitive notes.

 

And then we have to closely look at what comes back in return.

 

We all remember the Santana trade with the Mets and the returns (with a gun barrel to our heads, supposedly) compared to what was thrown at the Twins (supposedly) by teams like New York and Boston, with the newswire grapevine telling us the Twins were holding out for better results, only to be stymied and ended up dealing with the Mets (and Getting Humber instead of Pelfrey, who they supposedly wanted in the first place).

 

And then we have the Span trade for pitching of the future, not to mention the Revere trade for the same, and we see where that left us...down in the dumps in the outfield with pitching prospects that have yet to contribute.

 

A team needs to have a need for a second baseman to go after Dozier. They have to figure him into some longterm plans (at second or elsewhere) to justify giving up certain players. Today, he is a plus piece for any team. The Twins have to decide how to gamble on the prospect level...get someone to contribute tomorrow or further down the line is the big question. 

 

 

[Badsmerf]

I would be happy with a top 50 and a top 100. Asking for more is probably asking too much.

[Doomtints]

With one truly exceptional year, I'm not sure that Dozier is going to market what we hope he would, esp. in a era where there are several high performers at his position.  People aren't going to trade the farm for "above average."  He needs to show 125+ OPS+ for longer for the Twins to get such a huge haul.

 

Waiting until the trade deadline in 2017 might be a better idea if the Twins want an epic haul from a trade. Any GM in his right mind is going to show some skepticism around Dozier right now.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

How about Dozier to the Dodgers for...

 

1) Yadier Alvarez, #91 overall, probably at A+ in 2017

2) Yusniel Diaz, #93 overall, probably at A+ or AA in 2017

3) Jordan Sheffield, outside top 100, probably A+ or AA in 2017

4) Gavin Lux, 1st round pick in 2016, Elizabethton in 2017

 

Or is that too much? I feel like Alvarez is the key, as a 70 grade pitch (fastball) and a 55 pitch (slider) along with a changeup. Could really develop into something. The others all have fairly high potential as well, and this would go a long ways towards the Twins' future and rebuilding the prospect depth.

[Kwak]

Remember, Dozier has two years remaining on his contract. An acquiring team can trade him after one year and recover considerable future players, thus increasing Dozier's trade value.

[goulik]

Remember, Dozier has two years remaining on his contract. An acquiring team can trade him after one year and recover considerable future players, thus increasing Dozier's trade value.

They could also acquire him in the off season with the insurance aspect of being able to flip him at the upcoming deadline if the acquiring team is not performing at the level they hope.

[diehardtwinsfan]

CBA also plays a role in this, depending on where things go with compensation picks.  If they are gone, that may change the value of the trade a bit (not too much I'd think, but it definitely changes his value if the team knows they cannot offer QO and get a 1st rounder).

 

That said, I think they have to target ML ready pitching (and not Vance Worley types).  If I get a headliner, I want it being an ace upside guy in the high minors or an ace upside guy who did pretty well in his first ML season.  Not too terribly concerned about the rest of the picks, other than that I'd hope at least one more is somewhere  in the top 100.

[olivia11]

 

How about Dozier to the Dodgers for...

 

1) Yadier Alvarez, #91 overall, probably at A+ in 2017

2) Yusniel Diaz, #93 overall, probably at A+ or AA in 2017

3) Jordan Sheffield, outside top 100, probably A+ or AA in 2017

4) Gavin Lux, 1st round pick in 2016, Elizabethton in 2017

 

Or is that too much? I feel like Alvarez is the key, as a 70 grade pitch (fastball) and a 55 pitch (slider) along with a changeup. Could really develop into something. The others all have fairly high potential as well, and this would go a long ways towards the Twins' future and rebuilding the prospect depth.

 

I would ask for:

1) Jose De Leon, RHP #32 overall, profiles as a #2, made 4 starts at MLB last year (MLB/AAA 2017)

2) Yadier Alvarez, RHP #91 overall.

 

I think aiming for someone like De Leon, despite the higher asking price, is important because he can help the club in 2017.  They're not going to want to trade Dozier without getting a solid piece back that can help immediately or almost immediately.  I would pull this trade in a heartbeat. 

[sthpstm]

 

How about Dozier to the Dodgers for...

 

1) Yadier Alvarez, #91 overall, probably at A+ in 2017

2) Yusniel Diaz, #93 overall, probably at A+ or AA in 2017

3) Jordan Sheffield, outside top 100, probably A+ or AA in 2017

4) Gavin Lux, 1st round pick in 2016, Elizabethton in 2017

 

Or is that too much? I feel like Alvarez is the key, as a 70 grade pitch (fastball) and a 55 pitch (slider) along with a changeup. Could really develop into something. The others all have fairly high potential as well, and this would go a long ways towards the Twins' future and rebuilding the prospect depth.

Personally, I would think that the risk with that package is too high, in combination because they are too far away, too new to professional baseball, have had injuries, and/or have too big of question marks. I could see a couple of them in the trade, but I think we should expect at least a piece or probably two that are either near MLB ready and/or have a high floor and high ceiling. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I can see that. I really like De Leon too. I feel like any trade with the Dodgers would have to absolutely include Alvarez, mostly for his top of the rotation potential. Maybe those two and one of the other players listed?

[Kwak]

 

How about Dozier to the Dodgers for...

 

1) Yadier Alvarez, #91 overall, probably at A+ in 2017

2) Yusniel Diaz, #93 overall, probably at A+ or AA in 2017

3) Jordan Sheffield, outside top 100, probably A+ or AA in 2017

4) Gavin Lux, 1st round pick in 2016, Elizabethton in 2017

 

Or is that too much? I feel like Alvarez is the key, as a 70 grade pitch (fastball) and a 55 pitch (slider) along with a changeup. Could really develop into something. The others all have fairly high potential as well, and this would go a long ways towards the Twins' future and rebuilding the prospect depth.

Refer to the original post--your idea has considerable merit, but the Twins may need to add someone to "balance the scales".

[Cory Engelhardt]

Refer to the original post--your idea has considerable merit, but the Twins may need to add someone to "balance the scales".

Like who? What would you add?

[Rosterman]

Plus, would he be worth at least a qualifying offer in 2019?

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Plus, would he be worth at least a qualifying offer in 2019?

Dozier? As a 33 year old pull-only hitter? I doubt it, if you are the twins.

[old nurse]

Dozier is not Donaldson. Not even close. LuCroy plays a premium position with very few premium players. Dozier has a limited market unless the Twins are selling low. If they are not selling low there is no real reason for a rebuilding team to trade for him. Blue Jays, Dodgers, Orioles, Giants and maybe the Angels would be the contending teams  that could use a 2b.  Yes the Angels are not contending, but do not tell Arte Moreno that. . All it takes is one.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Mets (if they decline Neil Walker) and Pirates too

[DocBauer]

The conflict is worth vs value. Dozier is a solid defensive 2B who is sometimes excellent. I know one site claims he's below average defensively, while another rates him above average defensively. (This has been discussed previously, I am at a loss for the moment which site ranked him which way) Sure he misses a few balls and makes a few errors. What infielder doesn't? But I know what my eye sees, and he's at least sold, average. Combined with his bat...a bat I feel didn't just get super hot for months on end in 2016 but actually improved...he's amongst the best and most productive 2B in all ML ball. Even with some inconsistency, overall, he rakes at his position.

 

He is WORTH a top young SP who is ready, or maybe even got his feet wet this season, plus another top 100 prospect.

 

However, its his VALUE to another team, or two, that is the crux of the matter. There are quite a few teams out there, quite a few lineups, that would absolutely improve with Dozier on/in them. Being an infielder, except for an elite hitter, his bat is worth more than most OF, I would think. He's also not old, seldom been injured except for nicks and bruises, cost controlled for the next 2 seasons, and again, not exactly old when the 2 years is up. And his value s undoubtedly tied to a team out there that can afford to move a couple quality, high potential arms to acquire him without sacrificing their own rotation, OR, who could afford to move a high quality young arms because they have that top prospect ready to move up and take that spot in the rotation.

 

The Dodgers still make a lot of sense to me, but I'm sure there are others. I'm really hoping this new FO team can target the right team and the right return. We're giving up a really, really good ballplayer here, and the return should coincide.

[DocBauer]

Like who? What would you add?

If our return was a top ML SP prospect with the upside we need/want...ready or maybe even got his feet wet this season, or available because said team had another such player ready to move up and take the spot of another highly talented and high upside SP already up...plus another quality arm, I'd gladly include another quality prospect back. But the question remains, WHO?

 

I know it sounds strange for a team in real need for pitching to trade pitching, but what about Stewart or Jorge? Considering his youth and what he did in high A last season, I'm back on the Stewart bandwagon and think he could still really be good. He's just not rocketing through the system...young and only concentrating solely on baseball for a few years now...the way we dreamed he would. I'm almost afraid to ,etc him go. Jorge is solid, has a lower ceiling than a few other arms in the system, but has a chance to be pretty good. and they've both already arrived at AA.

 

If the Twins could acquire the top young arms we are talking about, and another high caliber high A type prospect, I think you'd have to be ready to include a prospect like one of these guys.

[Mr. Brooks]

I wouldn't bat an eye at including Stewart in a deal.

I'd hesitate with any of the other arms.

[olivia11]

I think it would be smart to package Adam Brett Walker in one of this off-season's trades.  Potentially a Dozier or Ervin trade.  He's still a highly enough ranked prospect to draw some attention/entice a team who wants to dream of his 60 power.  But he's 25 and, while offensively he's done pretty well, he's a really, really poor defender in the corner outfield.  DH/1B is packed with, frankly, better talent, Palka is a better solid hitting prospect who's also more ready, and I have a feeling Falvey/Levine won't consider him too valuable of a prospect with his inability to play OF defense at the major league level.  I just feels like a good time to get something out of him before he totally falls out of the Twins plans.  Wonder if other teams will value him at all.

[kab21]

The biggest thing concerning any Dozier trade is one of only a handful of teams actually being willing to pay the price. It only takes one but there aren't that many possibilities to start with.

The price imo has to be a top 50 prospect and a top 100 prospect at a minimum and one of those at the very least has to be a starting pitcher.

[Thrylos]

Well... The Twins need young MLB-ready arms and probably a catcher, at the 22-24 year range. Or younger.  I like what I have seen from Garver this season (and before), so the catcher is secondary.

 

In addition to Dozier, Santana has to go (both of the Santanas actually, but the other one is just a footnote.)

 

So, if I were to go to the Dodgers, I'd ask for Jose De Leon, but also would go for the top price, Julio Urias, and would throw both Dozier and Santana in the trade. And if they want Fernardo Romero or Jorge Felix, I'd throw them in.

 

My thinking is different.  It is not what Dozier can bring, but what the Twins need and how they can get it, with their trading chips, including Dozier

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't think Urias is a possibility. I think if the dodgers want Chris Sale, Urias is the option there. But I'd be ok with Ervin and Dozier in the same deal, but I would need a Bellinger or someone else in their top 4 back as well.

As far as catcher options, this is off topic for this thread, but I would talk to the Yankees about Brian McCann. But Austin Barnes could be a good long term piece as well

[TheLeviathan]

The only way this team gets better is to use Dozier and Santana to acquire a catcher, maybe a SS, and lots of pitching.  It's really the only practical recourse we have.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Thrylos, I keep thinking Ervin is a great fit for the Rangers instead. What do you see there? You think the dodgers would want Santana too?

[Cory Engelhardt]

The only way this team gets better is to use Dozier and Santana to acquire a catcher, maybe a SS, and lots of pitching.  It's really the only practical recourse we have.

They can always get Zack Cozart for 2017. Nick Gordon will be great 2018 and beyond!

[jimmer]

Gordon didn't even dominate A+ ball, hasn't even hit AA ball, and he's going to be GREAT in the majors in 2018? Haven't we learned to not count our rookie chickens?

[Monkeypaws]

Power hitting RH 2nd baseman, guaranteed 100+ Ks, modest  OBP, who makes spectacular defensive plays but comes up bad in advanced metrics and turns 30 next year.

 

He is cheap.

 

Unless a team has a huge hole at 2nd and an overload of top 100 prospects....

 

Best to ride this contract out unless some blows you away with top 100 prospects, which I think highly unlikely. Let Polanco work out at short all winter, and Dozier provides great value at 2nd, and the marketing folks love him.