Setting the framework for a potential Dozier trade

old nurse · October 30, 2016

Gordon didn't even dominate A+ ball, hasn't even hit AA ball, and he's going to be GREAT in the majors in 2018? Haven't we learned to not count our rookie chickens?

Gordon hit better in A+ than A, 112 WRC says he is far better than average. He has been 2 years younger than the average age at every level he has been at. Some time in 2018 is not out of the realm of possibility if he continues to improve. An average bat and stellar defense would make him a great shortstop, see Addison Russel for one example. You can't just say batting makes the shortstop, see Eduardo Nunez play shortstop.

jimmer · October 30, 2016

Gordon hit better in A+ than A, 112 WRC says he is far better than average. He has been 2 years younger than the average age at every level he has been at. Some time in 2018 is not out of the realm of possibility if he continues to improve. An average bat and stellar defense would make him a great shortstop, see Addison Russel for one example. You can't just say batting makes the shortstop, see Eduardo Nunez play shortstop.

I never said batting makes the shortstop, but the person I responded to said he'd be GREAT for us in 2018. 'GREAT'!

If he sees the majors in 2018 it will be a September callup. No chance he is starting shortstop for us opening day 2018 (or early in the season) and I very much doubt he comes in and is great right away (see Buxton, Byron, CF).

I like how every prospect in our supposed fantastic farm system gets predicted to come up fast and be awesome right away, but really,...yeah, not so much. Really, not close. Sano's bat was great for half a season last year while not playing defense, that's about it.

BTW, Addison Russell's wRC+ in A+ ball was over 20 points higher than Gordon's and his BABIP wasn't in the .350s. Russell's ISO in A+ was over .200, Gordon's under .100.

Cory Engelhardt · October 30, 2016

I never said batting makes the shortstop, but the person I responded to said he'd be GREAT for us in 2018. 'GREAT'!

If he sees the majors in 2018 it will be a September callup. No chance he is starting shortstop for us opening day 2018 (or early in the season) and I very much doubt he comes in and is great right away (see Buxton, Byron, CF).

I like how every prospect in our supposed fantastic farm system gets predicted to come up fast and be awesome right away, but really,...yeah, not so much. Really, not close. Sano's bat was great for half a season last year while not playing defense, that's about it.

BTW, Addison Russell's wRC+ in A+ ball was over 20 points higher than Gordon's and his BABIP wasn't in the .350s. Russell's ISO in A+ was over .200, Gordon's under .100.

When I said great I meant on defense. Hopefully the bat follows. It is a small sample size but he is looking good in the Arizona fall league so far.

And no chance he is opening day shortstop 2018? That may be slim, but I will take that bet

old nurse · October 30, 2016

I never said batting makes the shortstop, but the person I responded to said he'd be GREAT for us in 2018. 'GREAT'!

If he sees the majors in 2018 it will be a September callup. No chance he is starting shortstop for us opening day 2018 (or early in the season) and I very much doubt he comes in and is great right away (see Buxton, Byron, CF).

I like how every prospect in our supposed fantastic farm system gets predicted to come up fast and be awesome right away, but really,...yeah, not so much. Really, not close. Sano's bat was great for half a season last year while not playing defense, that's about it.

BTW, Addison Russell's wRC+ in A+ ball was over 20 points higher than Gordon's and his BABIP wasn't in the .350s. Russell's ISO in A+ was over .200, Gordon's under .100.

The point you missed so badly on is that Russell is great at shortstop defensively. He is considered great not for his bat. He also spent only 11 games at AAA before being promoted to the majors. That he has more power than Gordon is really insignificant.

jimmer · October 30, 2016

The point you missed so badly on is that Russell is great at shortstop defensively. He is considered great not for his bat. He also spent only 11 games at AAA before being promoted to the majors. That he has more power than Gordon is really insignificant.

Yeah, I'm not missing any point. You want to say he'll be great defensively right away and what is this based on? Fielding %?

Additionally, Russell was a much higher prospect than Gordon and much better offensively in A+ ball than Gordon (with though Russell had a worse BABIP) and yet Russell has still only managed to be around average offensively in the majors and he isn't great himself. Correa, Lindor, Seager, Bogaerts, Crawford. THEY are great shortstops. Russell is above average who could be great one day. His bat, so far, prevents him from being great.

If Gordon comes in and plays great defense and has a 60 wRC+, he won't be GREAT. He'll be ok. Buxton, for example, played great defense, but he's not great yet (though, September looked promising)

Expecting Gordon to be great right away sets him up for disappointment, like the expectations put on Buxton. If he comes up and is just ok his first year, that will work. Greatness will, perhaps, come later.

old nurse · October 30, 2016

Yeah, I'm not missing any point. You want to say he'll be great defensively right away and what is this based on? Fielding %?

Additionally, Russell was a much higher prospect than Gordon and much better offensively in A+ ball than Gordon (with though Russell had a worse BABIP) and yet Russell has still only managed to be around average offensively in the majors and he isn't great himself. Correa, Lindor, Seager, Bogaerts, Crawford. THEY are great shortstops. Russell is above average who could be great one day. His bat, so far, prevents him from being great.

If Gordon comes in and plays great defense and has a 60 wRC+, he won't be GREAT. He'll be ok. Buxton, for example, played great defense, but he's not great yet (though, September looked promising)

Expecting Gordon to be great right away sets him up for disappointment, like the expectations put on Buxton. If he comes up and is just ok his first year, that will work. Greatness will, perhaps, come later.

When you speculate a 60 WRC+ I assume it is based on some research . The same research that would cause someone to say Bogaerts and Seager are great shortstops when there is not a single defensive metric to back that claim

Take Farnsworth's word on Gordon

Gordon has a collection of all-around skills that could eventually conspire to produce one of the top shortstop profiles in the game. He has shown an early strength in making contact and working the count, with a solid line-drive approach and the speed to take extra bases at every opportunity. He’s a smooth fielder at short with a plus arm, already looking like a major-league regular at the position defensively.

He has the swing and raw power to develop average pop, but it may just be a question of whether he decides to gear his approach for it or not. I think he ends up coming a bit short, if only because he’s going to be so good at hitting line drives and letting his base-running instincts pad his extra-base hit totals. He won’t need power to be an excellent shortstop, though fully tapping into it would put him in the impact tier at the most important position on the field.

jimmer · October 30, 2016

When you speculate a 60 WRC+ I assume it is based on some research . The same research that would cause someone to say Bogaerts and Seager are great shortstops when there is not a single defensive metric to back that claim

Take Farnsworth's word on Gordon
Gordon has a collection of all-around skills that could eventually conspire to produce one of the top shortstop profiles in the game. He has shown an early strength in making contact and working the count, with a solid line-drive approach and the speed to take extra bases at every opportunity. He’s a smooth fielder at short with a plus arm, already looking like a major-league regular at the position defensively.
He has the swing and raw power to develop average pop, but it may just be a question of whether he decides to gear his approach for it or not. I think he ends up coming a bit short, if only because he’s going to be so good at hitting line drives and letting his base-running instincts pad his extra-base hit totals. He won’t need power to be an excellent shortstop, though fully tapping into it would put him in the impact tier at the most important position on the field.

Here is the quote I was originally responding to.

'They can always get Zack Cozart for 2017. Nick Gordon will be great 2018 and beyond!'

When I see someone say a player will be a great shortstop I think overall game. Curious how many times I have to talk about offense AND defense to make that clear, or perhaps you are being deliberately obtuse. Or perhaps you just think only defense matters for greatness? Simmons is one of the best fielding shortstops ever, but even his defense can't make him a great overall player at the position.Not in today's game.

You want to say Seager (who, BTW, has a very nice UZR, though a zero DRS) isn't a great overall shortstop? Or Bogaerts? When we mention a shortstop as great or not are we only supposed to be talking defensively or can we include their whole game? In fact, are players only great because of defense? Is that how we define great? If so, should we re-evaluate Sano's chances of greatness?

And when I say Gordon won't be great in 2018, I'm not saying he won't be great eventually. I doubt he plays enough to be great for the Twins in 2018. Am I saying he has no chance eventually? No, I'm not saying that Is Dan's scouting saying he'll be great in 2018?

As far as the 60+ wRC+, all I was doing was looking at his ISO, his BABIP, and comparing those numbers to Russell at the same level (since that was the shortstop you mentioned). Then I looked at how those numbers translated for Russell at the major league level. Seemed fairly obvious what I was doing when comparing their A+ level numbers then mentioning where Russell was at offensively in the majors, but I'm happy to spell it out for you again.

jimmer · October 31, 2016

When I said great I meant on defense. Hopefully the bat follows. It is a small sample size but he is looking good in the Arizona fall league so far.
And no chance he is opening day shortstop 2018? That may be slim, but I will take that bet

Yeah, when I read it, I had no idea defense was all you were talking about, which I think was obvious as I continued the debate. If I had know you were only talking defense, the whole conversation is different.

In any event, I can't argue with the idea that whenever he reaches the majors, he'll be great defensively. If people believe that, cool. Hope it happens. Also hope we see him some time in 2018.

Cory Engelhardt · October 31, 2016

You are right, I shouldn't have said great. I have high hopes for Gordon, and based on his track record I believe he could reach those high expectations, but it is by no means a given.

I feel like the cal league is a notorious hitters league. Is there a way to compare Russel's 20 year old season in high a to that league's average, and then compare Gordon's stats to the average FSL player this year

jimmer · October 31, 2016

You are right, I shouldn't have said great. I have high hopes for Gordon, and based on his track record I believe he could reach those high expectations, but it is by no means a given.
I feel like the cal league is a notorious hitters league. Is there a way to compare Russel's 20 year old season in high a to that league's average, and then compare Gordon's stats to the average FSL player this year

Since you meant just defense, scouts have said things about his defense from 'Will stick at shortstop' to 'will be great' And some comments in between those two descriptions. Let's hope for great, I'm all for it. He definitely has the arm strength for the position.

markos · October 31, 2016

But none of those players are good 2nd baseman. Dozier does make a lot of sense for them

Maybe? Somehow the Cardinals ended up with 4 WAR at 2B last year, at least according to Fangraphs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2016&month=37&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

I think the Cardinals are in a fairly large group of contenders that have a more-or-less average incumbent at 2B, and so would require some additional roster moves to make it work. Includes Blue Jays, Orioles, Giants, Pirates, maybe Yankees and Royals as well. They are kind of in a different class than teams like the Mets, Dodgers and Angels who will absolutely need to fill the position.

old nurse · October 31, 2016

Here is the quote I was originally responding to.

'They can always get Zack Cozart for 2017. Nick Gordon will be great 2018 and beyond!'

When I see someone say a player will be a great shortstop I think overall game. Curious how many times I have to talk about offense AND defense to make that clear, or perhaps you are being deliberately obtuse. Or perhaps you just think only defense matters for greatness? Simmons is one of the best fielding shortstops ever, but even his defense can't make him a great overall player at the position.Not in today's game.

You want to say Seager (who, BTW, has a very nice UZR, though a zero DRS) isn't a great overall shortstop? Or Bogaerts? When we mention a shortstop as great or not are we only supposed to be talking defensively or can we include their whole game? In fact, are players only great because of defense? Is that how we define great? If so, should we re-evaluate Sano's chances of greatness?

And when I say Gordon won't be great in 2018, I'm not saying he won't be great eventually. I doubt he plays enough to be great for the Twins in 2018. Am I saying he has no chance eventually? No, I'm not saying that Is Dan's scouting saying he'll be great in 2018?

As far as the 60+ wRC+, all I was doing was looking at his ISO, his BABIP, and comparing those numbers to Russell at the same level (since that was the shortstop you mentioned). Then I looked at how those numbers translated for Russell at the major league level. Seemed fairly obvious what I was doing when comparing their A+ level numbers then mentioning where Russell was at offensively in the majors, but I'm happy to spell it out for you again.

UZR150 says that Seager is a little above average.

Sample size of one player to make a projection. Very scientific One of the writers over at minor league ball said the Gordon adding about 20 pounds of muscle would be Cano. Time will tell

jimmer · October 31, 2016

UZR150 says that Seager is a little above average.
Sample size of one player to make a projection. Very scientific One of the writers over at minor league ball said the Gordon adding about 20 pounds of muscle would be Cano. Time will tell

So the sample size of RusseIl is ok to use if it it's shown as a positive comparison for Gordon, but not when it makes it look negative for Gordon by comparison? Interesting.

I never said the wRC+ suggestion for Gordon was scientific. Then again, I wasn't the one who brought up Russell as a comparison to begin with. And I wouldn't have made the comparison, considering Russell was much better at A+ level (not to mention a much higher regarded prospect overall), but you did, so I went with it. I doubt a couple scouts saying Gordon will be great defensively (or overall) is very scientific either.

Um, Seager's actual UZR this season was over 10 and his UZR/150 was over 11. Both of those are well above average, not a little above average. In fact, it's classified as 'Great'

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/uzr/

Then again, I never said Seager was a great defensive shortstop, just a great overall shortstop. Likely the unanimous NL ROY this year and likely top 3 in MVP voting.

Rosterman · October 31, 2016

I guess the idea situation would be to keep Dozier for two years at second with Polanco at shortstop. By then, Polanco will be entering arbitration. Gordon will be ready to play fulltime. You make a qualifying offer to Dozier and he accepts or doesn't -- hopefully moves on. You get a draft pick. Polanco moves to second. Gordon to short. And in three years Polanco is too expensive for what he brings to the table.

Kwak · October 31, 2016

I guess the idea situation would be to keep Dozier for two years at second with Polanco at shortstop. By then, Polanco will be entering arbitration. Gordon will be ready to play fulltime. You make a qualifying offer to Dozier and he accepts or doesn't -- hopefully moves on. You get a draft pick. Polanco moves to second. Gordon to short. And in three years Polanco is too expensive for what he brings to the table.

A draft pick? Yikes! If the Twins were a serious contender with a 1-2 year window before all falls apart that would be a reasonable choice. But, they aren't a serious contender! A trade will add multiple players, and they will have attained enough success to warrant the loss of a premier player.

Doomtints · October 31, 2016

Someone mentioned that it may be time to start thinking of trading Sano.

I had not thought about this but it might make more sense to keep Dozier and trade Sano. Sano and his entourage can play his circus defense elsewhere. With his step back this year I don't think the Twins will be missing much. Sure Sano will have a couple of great years but I get the feeling he is going to be a chronic under-performer, esp. when the Twins hit a rough patch. Is the Sano hassle going to be worth 2-3 really good years?

Or what about a complete rebuild, and trade both of them?

Cory Engelhardt · October 31, 2016

Someone mentioned that it may be time to start thinking of trading Sano.

I had not thought about this but it might make more sense to keep Dozier and trade Sano. Sano and his entourage can play his circus defense elsewhere. With his step back this year I don't think the Twins will be missing much. Sure Sano will have a couple of great years but I get the feeling he is going to be a chronic under-performer, esp. when the Twins hit a rough patch. Is the Sano hassle going to be worth 2-3 really good years?

Or what about a complete rebuild, and trade both of them?

NO, you don't rebuild by trading young potential superstars who are cheap for several years. You attempt to add players like Sano. He is not a finished product, but to trade him now would be beyond asinine. The only reason the twins would think about trading Dozier is because he is on a cheap 2 year deal and is going into his 30's.

Doomtints · October 31, 2016

NO, you don't rebuild by trading young potential superstars who are cheap for several years. You attempt to add players like Sano. He is not a finished product, but to trade him now would be beyond asinine. The only reason the twins would think about trading Dozier is because he is on a cheap 2 year deal and is going into his 30's.

Actually, teams routinely trade away players who they don't think will live up to their potential. You clearly are deep in the camp of believing that Sano will be a star, which I think is debatable.

The Twins could outright fleece another team by trading Sano right now. Most teams would give up a lot to get him.

Vanimal46 · October 31, 2016

Actually, teams routinely trade away players who they don't think will live up to their potential. You clearly are deep in the camp of believing that Sano will be a star, which I think is debatable.

The Twins could outright fleece another team by trading Sano right now. Most teams would give up a lot to get him.

Curious who you think of when you say players are routinely traded away who they don't believe will live up to their potential.

Prospects? Sure, I can agree with that. People already in the MLB? All I can think of is Will Myers who was never touted as a 40 HR hitter, and Miggy Cabrera back in the day because it was the annual Marlins fire sale.

Doomtints · October 31, 2016

Curious who you think of when you say players are routinely traded away who they don't believe will live up to their potential.

Prospects? Sure, I can agree with that. People already in the MLB? All I can think of is Will Myers who was never touted as a 40 HR hitter, and Miggy Cabrera back in the day because it was the annual Marlins fire sale.

You have probably heard of Josh Hamilton. But come on, this is a silly path to go down. Of course teams have done this and listing examples is a pointless exercise. Heck, the Twins got fleeced at catcher just last year due to this. Murphy sure as hell looked great on paper, no?

Kwak · October 31, 2016

NO, you don't rebuild by trading young potential superstars who are cheap for several years. You attempt to add players like Sano. He is not a finished product, but to trade him now would be beyond asinine. The only reason the twins would think about trading Dozier is because he is on a cheap 2 year deal and is going into his 30's.

There are more reasons than that to make a trade: the player isn't going to stay. Either because the team doesn't want to make an extreme commitment to him or he just prefers to go elsewhere. Mauer stayed because that was his dream to play for the Twins--provided he got market value. If Joe came from California I doubt Minnesota would have been his preferred destination given all else equal.

Sano's representation have a goal to become the preferred agency for all players of color. They want to break open the system and place themselves at the top. We should definitely expect Sano to "move on" when free agency beckons.

d-mac · October 31, 2016

Like who? What would you add?

Brian Duensing. Can we still do that?

belker · October 31, 2016

Actually, wouldn't Reyes, Kelly and Wacha fit the scenario laid above? Are the cardinals a fit for Dozier? Maybe the twins would add Santana and a prospect because Reyes is so highly thought of

Cardinal fan here....Reyes and Kelly are 2 of the 3 Cards' prospects most unlikely to be traded (along with Delvin Perez). The Cards are in a weird spot, they have lots of average to above-average players, but few superstar types. Reyes is viewed as a potential superstar. Kelly's numbers don't look great, but he won the minor league Gold Glove at catcher last year, and they need a replacement for Yadi, and Kelly looks like he is the one.

And I don't think you really want Wacha, his shoulder issue looks to be a long-term issue, he might end up in the bullpen to reduce the strain.

The Cards need a CF, but I doubt the Twins would trade Buxton, so I don't think these teams will match up. They also have about 8 legitimate options for the starting rotation, so Santana would not be much of a draw.

Cory Engelhardt · October 31, 2016

Cardinal fan here....Reyes and Kelly are 2 of the 3 Cards' prospects most unlikely to be traded (along with Delvin Perez). The Cards are in a weird spot, they have lots of average to above-average players, but few superstar types. Reyes is viewed as a potential superstar. Kelly's numbers don't look great, but he won the minor league Gold Glove at catcher last year, and they need a replacement for Yadi, and Kelly looks like he is the one.
And I don't think you really want Wacha, his shoulder issue looks to be a long-term issue, he might end up in the bullpen to reduce the strain.
The Cards need a CF, but I doubt the Twins would trade Buxton, so I don't think these teams will match up. They also have about 8 legitimate options for the starting rotation, so Santana would not be much of a draw.

I wasn't saying this was the perfect trade, but I was saying these players fell into the mold of what the original post started out to say; 1 top prospect, another good/top 100 prospect, and a 3rd player.

Do you think the cardinals would do Dozier for Weaver, Flaherty and Kelly? Or is that an overpay?

diehardtwinsfan · October 31, 2016

Brian Duensing. Can we still do that?

I believe the new throw in of choice is Adam Brett Walker.

belker · November 1, 2016

I wasn't saying this was the perfect trade, but I was saying these players fell into the mold of what the original post started out to say; 1 top prospect, another good/top 100 prospect, and a 3rd player.
Do you think the cardinals would do Dozier for Weaver, Flaherty and Kelly? Or is that an overpay?

I just don't think the Cards would be very interested in Dozier. Not that he wouldn't be an upgrade, it's just they have an overabundance of infielders, and their offense was homer-heavy this year, and it didn't quite work. They're looking to improve the defense (step 1 is to get a good CF & shift Grichuk to LF which would improve both spots defensively), increase the team speed and hopefully get some high OBP-types.

Weaver and Flaherty would both be available, but they've had a hard time coming up with a backup for Yadi, not to mention his replacement. They are "all-in" on Kelly for that.

Cory Engelhardt · November 15, 2016

Darren Wolfson, in his most recent podcast, said that the Dodgers and the Braves spoke to the Twins this past week regarding a potential Dozier trade at some point.

I've looked at the Dodgers prospects a LOT lately thinking about certain scenarios, but not as much the Braves. What would a Dozier to the Braves trade look like? How about this...

1) Mike Foltynewicz, 25 years old (will be 26 next October) and pitched this year up in Atlanta. He has a HUGE fastball, and would very easily step right into the Twins rotation.

2) Touki Toussant, their #10 overall prospect, and he was a big part of the Shelby Miller trade from AZ.

3) Kyle Muller, their #12 prospect, 2nd round pick in 2016 out of high school.

I first take the thought of Dozier to the Braves with a grain of salt, but Jon Heyman is reporting that the Braves have also spoken to the White Sox about Chris Sale. If the Braves are wanting to win-now while moving into a new ballpark, the Twins could really get some good prospects for Dozier.

What do you think? Would you go for other prospects than what I listed?

Vanimal46 · November 15, 2016

The Braves are loaded with pitching prospects. I'd like to get as many as possible from them so they could get their home town boy Dozier.

Mr. Brooks · November 15, 2016

The Braves are loaded with pitching prospects. I'd like to get as many as possible from them so they could get their home town boy Dozier.

Dozier is from Mississippi.

TheLeviathan · November 15, 2016

Dozier is from Mississippi.

They all talk funny. Same difference.

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