Article: Should Robbie Grossman Be In The Twins Plans?

[jimmer]

 

This is his age 26 season and he has a .340 career OBP.

 

Right now he comps to Gene Larkin. Not a guy that should be starting but a guy that you like to have on the bench.

That OBP is heavily influenced by an out of character first half this year. And defense matters too (or should).

 

But yes, he's a 4th/5th OF type. Unfortunately, Rosario is also a 4th OF type.

[Hrbek70]

How exactly do you think the Twins can sell high this month? We are talking about a 4th OF'er here.

 

Why cut Grossman just to bring up Palka as a 4th OF'er? 

 

I am also not sure how Vargas ended up on the chopping block vs Grossman. If Sano is at 3B then Vargas is probably at DH although perhaps you are talking about Park but he has MiLB options left.

He must like a lot of strike outs. ABW and Palka are K machines that need more work.

[kab21]

 

That OBP is heavily influenced by an out of character first half this year. And defense matters too (or should).

His .392 OBP is but the .340 career number isn't. He had a .379 MiLB OBP. He had a .330+ OBP his first two seasons in the MLB. 

[jimmer]

 

His .392 OBP is but the .340 career number isn't. He had a .379 MiLB OBP. He had a .330+ OBP his first two seasons in the MLB. 

Here is Grossman's line from 2013-2015.

 

.240/.327/.341 (that's an OPS of 668, from a corner OF).  He had a wRC+ of 91 (again, from a corner OF). before taking into account his poor defense, that's bad offense from a corner OF.

 

 

And for those who care, his fWAR for that time frame was 0.5.

 

 

Edited August 12, 2016 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

The Twins shouldn't be spending money on OF'ers right now unless there is a good value for a starter. 

 

I have never really liked the combination of offense and defense into WAR and don't really believe that analysis. One flaw in your analysis (before the issue of offense and defense comes up) is that discrediting his SSS offense while not crediting him for better defense (more data is needed for a relevant SS). I would be happy to have a bench bat with a .340 OBP and some power that can PH or sub in sometimes.

Grossman has been a negative defensive player accross four years though. The offensive surge has just been this year.

 

Across his four years he has accumulated a WAR of .4 in 1,000 PA. Sam Fuld has accumulated 3.7 WAR across 1,500 PA.

 

What I would do given the defensive flexibility of Kepler and Rosario is sign a 4th OF that would be a platoon complement and be in the $2-3m range.

[kab21]

 

Here is Grossman's line from 2013-2015.

 

.240/.327/.341 (that's an OPS of 668, from a corner OF).  He had a wRC+ of 91 (again, from a corner OF). before taking into account his poor defense, that's bad offense from a corner OF.

 

 

And for those who care, his fWAR for that time frame was 0.5.

He posted a .327 OBP during his first 200 games during his age 23-25 seasons. That is fairly decent especially when considering his MiLB track record and his improvement this season. It isn't like I think he is a starter but he is a solid backup and the Twins haven't had solid backups for a long time.

[kab21]

 

Grossman has been a negative defensive player accross four years though. The offensive surge has just been this year.

Across his four years he has accumulated a WAR of .4 in 1,000 PA. Sam Fuld has accumulated 3.7 WAR across 1,500 PA.

What I would do given the defensive flexibility of Kepler and Rosario is sign a 4th OF that would be a platoon complement and be in the $2-3m range.

Nobody is saying that he is a good fielder. His SSS this season that you derived your numbers from show him as one of the worst in the majors. That probably isn't true.

 

WAR is a decent stat but I take it with a grain of salt when offense and defense are combined into one number.

In addition different sites calculate WAR differently on one site he is 0.4 and on another he is 1.2 for his career (255 games). 

 

Why on earth are you signing 30 yr old FA role players to this team? That makes no sense considering where the team is. Take advantage of a guy like Grossman while he is cheap. It is likely that even to get a platoon player that is good defensively that it would cost more than a couple of million.

[ashbury]

Trade him to someone who values his offense and fails to fully account for his terrible range.

"I value his offense, and fail to fully account for his terrible range." Says no GM in the majors. Which is why we got him as a free agent rather than by trade.

[tobi0040]

Nobody is saying that he is a good fielder. His SSS this season that you derived your numbers from show him as one of the worst in the majors. That probably isn't true.

 

WAR is a decent stat but I take it with a grain of salt when offense and defense are combined into one number.

 

In addition different sites calculate WAR differently on one site he is 0.4 and on another he is 1.2 for his career (255 games). 

 

Why on earth are you signing 30 yr old FA role players to this team? That makes no sense considering where the team is. Take advantage of a guy like Grossman while he is cheap. It is likely that even to get a platoon player that is good defensively that it would cost more than a couple of million.

I wasn't pushing for a Sam Fuld signing. Just that Fuld is a 4th OF type who has accumulated WAR 3 x as fast as Grossman.

 

To me, we all agree the guy has no value around the league via trade. Maybe that should be a sign that we shouldn't be planning around him

Edited August 12, 2016 by tobi0040

[jimmer]

 

"I value his offense, and fail to fully account for his terrible range." Says no GM in the majors. Which is why we got him as a free agent rather than by trade.

There was at least one GM in 2015 who said that :-)

[tobi0040]

There was at least one GM in 2015 who said that :-)

Was it the same guy that had no patience for pitchers that walk guys but was ok with hitters that never walk?

[jimmer]

 

Was it the same guy that had no patience for pitchers that walk guys but was ok with hitters that never walk?

uhhhhh, mayyyyybe... :-)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

"I value his offense, and fail to fully account for his terrible range." Says no GM in the majors. Which is why we got him as a free agent rather than by trade.

Pretty much.

 

If his OPS+ stabilizes somewhere north of 110 or so, a desperate team might not mind him as a cheap high-OBP DH option.  Like post-catching John Jaso.

 

But with his OPS still steadily dropping, nobody is going to bite quite yet (at least not for any return the Twins would find meaningful).

[nytwinsfan]

 

"I value his offense, and fail to fully account for his terrible range." Says no GM in the majors. Which is why we got him as a free agent rather than by trade.

No, we got him as a free agent rather than by trade because he never had an OPS above .702 in the majors before. Lots of GMs fail to fully consider defensive value.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No, we got him as a free agent rather than by trade because he never had an OPS above .702 in the majors before. Lots of GMs fail to fully consider defensive value.

And he may not have an OPS much higher than that going forward.  He's at .759 since June 1st, .729 since July 1st...

 

Relative to league, that recent performance is actually not much different than his earlier career numbers.  MLB non-pitcher OPS was .725 back when Grossman posted his .702, and the average is at .749 this year...

[drivlikejehu]

 

No, we got him as a free agent rather than by trade because he never had an OPS above .702 in the majors before. Lots of GMs fail to fully consider defensive value.

 

Any data to support this contention?

[nytwinsfan]

Any data to support this contention?

 

Actually, yes:   http://www.finchwaygroup.com/defensive-statistics-in-baseball-overlooked-and-undervalued/

 

While fans and baseball general managers alike will undoubtedly appreciate the contributions of a gold-glove caliber fielder, it is clear that their appreciation pales compared to their hitting contemporaries. From what has been explored here, a major form of salary and compensation discrimination comes not from ethnicity (though that’s an idea for another time), but from whether the contributions come while standing in the batter’s box. The belief in baseball may be that a run saved is a run scored, but teams have yet to reach a point where defence is valued as highly as offence. Richer teams will inevitably be forced to focus on the importance of defensive contributions in the future to keep up as small market teams continue to pursue this market inefficiency, but for 2015 at least, defence will remain overlooked and undervalued.

 

 

Edited August 12, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[nytwinsfan]

 

And he may not have an OPS much higher than that going forward.  He's at .759 since June 1st, .729 since July 1st...

 

Relative to league, that recent performance is actually not much different than his earlier career numbers.  MLB non-pitcher OPS was .725 back when Grossman posted his .702, and the average is at .749 this year...

 

Ok, Nunez was in a slump (or, perhaps more accurately, regressing to the mean) right before the trade deadline too, but that didn't stop us from getting a good return for him. So my points stands, try to trade Grossman to someone who overvalues his offense and undervalues his defense. Maybe no GM will do that, but it happens all the time, so it is certainly worth a shot. The underlying point is that with our weak pitching for the foreseeable future we can't afford a LF with Grossman's defense, especially when we have other OF options coming.

[LaBombo]

 

Defense is worse than Delmon's?

Yeah, that's... kind of hard to even picture. Struggling to make routine plays in his own zone, plus deliberately knocking down the center fielder when he camps under the ball, maybe?

[jorgenswest]

Why wouldn't they bring him to camp next year? He is under team control. His on base skill has value. He is entering his prime. He is absolutely worthy of a 40 man roster spot this winter and an opportunity to retain his role next spring.

[jimbo92107]

Grossman's greatest value is as an example of how to squeeze these mlb pitchers, even when you don't have a big threat in your bat. No pitcher fears Grossman's awesome power, yet he still manages to get more walks than just about anybody in the majors. How can this be?? 

 

The answer is shamefully simple: Most mlb pitchers want to get you out with junk outside the strike zone. If a hitter seriously won't swing at their junk, then he can get a ton of walks. The whole baseball world even knows this about Grossman, and still he gets a ton of walks. What this really means is that every mlb hitter is swinging at far too much junk. Even cutting down on junk swings a little has made Eddie Rosario look good again, and he still swings at loads of junk. 

 

The sad truth of the matter may have more to do with MLB public relations than anything else. Teams and the league don't want to fill the bases with walks. They want to shorten the game by getting players to put the ball in play. Grossman's patient style is effective, but it's boring to watch. It's okay to have one or two guys like Grossman in the league, just as it's okay for Boston and one other team to have a knuckleballer, as a novelty. But what if a team developed a whole staff of really good knuckleballers? The league would not tolerate it. 

 

If you're wondering why there's no market for Grossman, it's because his style of ball doesn't fit what the league wants to put out there. Even if it works, it's not what MLB wants to see.

[ashbury]

If you're wondering why there's no market for Grossman, it's because his style of ball doesn't fit what the league wants to put out there.

That, and his negligible WAR. (0.7 currently on FanGraphs, 0.1 on bb-ref.)

[drivlikejehu]

 

Actually, yes:   http://www.finchwaygroup.com/defensive-statistics-in-baseball-overlooked-and-undervalued/

 

Not exactly a baseball research site of any kind. The only thing it shows is that GMs do not fully trust defensive WAR numbers. 

 

However, it is universally agreed that defensive WAR is approximate and subject to significant variations, whereas offensive WAR is pretty straightforward (and the associated fluctuations are easier to account for as well). 

 

Would you pay more for

 

(1) a player that is maybe good on defense and definitely average on offense? Or

 

(2) a player that was maybe average on defense but definitely good on offense?

 

Some simplistic WAR charts don't capture much of the issue. 

[DocBauer]

Not sure I've seen enough of him defensively to know if he's poor, average or what. There is still an eye test to be considered when watching someone play defense, I MO. But he's still you, makes contact, has some power at least, takes positive AB and takes BB. That's valuable as a bench player/role player.

 

A 4th OF doesn't have to play CF when you have other guys on the team who can do so. I'd definitely keep him as part of the immediate future. But I'd also do my best to find another Grossman out there. Someone with some ability maybe needing a fresh start. Someone who can push Grossman, and be a AAAA option for us at worst. Palka is still rather young, half a season at AAA. Walker needs work. Granite hasn't seen AAA yet. So Grossman provides real value. I'd just like to bring on board another helpful option.

Edited August 13, 2016 by DocBauer

[Riverbrian]

 

Not sure I've seen enough of him defensively to know if he's poor, average or what. There is still an eye test to be considered when watching someone play defense, I MO. But he's still you, makes contact, has some power at least, takes positive AB and takes BB. That's valuable as a bench player/role player.

A 4th OF doesn't have to play CF when you have other guys on the team who can do so. I'd definitely keep him as part of the immediate future. But I'd also do my best to find another Grossman out there. Someone with some ability maybe needing a fresh start. Someone who can push Grossman, and be a AAAA option for us at worst. Palka is still rather young, half a season at AAA. Walker needs work. Granite hasn't seen AAA yet. So Grossman provides real value. I'd just like to bring on board another helpful option.

 

According to my eye test. If Buxton is well done... Grossman is medium rare. 

 

He catches what he gets to but he isn't getting to balls he isn't supposed to. 

 

If Sano could have gotten to a Grossman level of defense in the OF it would have been ok but Grossman isn't Sano at the plate.

 

As for the question... should Grossman be a part of our plans?

 

Yes... because we don't have anyone better at the moment. I reserve the right revise that statement based anyone better showing up.  

[Vanimal46]

2 more errors for Grossman yesterday. He's proving to be a huge liability in the field. I don't want a 4th OF who can't play in the field. 

[Mike Sixel]

And those are only the errors, his range is "suspect" I believe is how you say it in polite company.

 

I'd almost rather have a not hit defender up here, than an OBP guy who can't field.

[diehardtwinsfan]

As a 4th OF, I'm perfectly fine with Grossman staying. He's a decent 4th OF that can do the occasional start against a lefty to give someone a night off. That's not a bad thing at all. More than that, not so sure. I'm not certain he's going to be trade bait for anything decent. Heck, I think DanSan would get a better return to be honest.

 

I'm with others, a 1 year deal on say Carlos Gomez (Buxton in AAA) letting Rosario stay in LF and watching Palka/Walker in AAA makes sense. I suspect Walker is more trade bait at this point, but I think Palka has a decent chance of being an above average corner OF.  He certainly strikes out less and walks more, and while Walker has a bit better power, Palka is still pretty high on that scale.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

According to my eye test. If Buxton is well done... Grossman is medium rare. 

 

 

 

There's only one way to cook a steak, and well done is not it...  Not sure the analogy holds.  We are talking about steak though, right?

[Rosterman]

Grossman or Santana. Choose one.