Grading The Deadline

[Brandon Warne]

Wrote an article about how Rob Antony and his comrades attacked the deadline:

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/al/minnesota-twins/minnesota-twins-trade-grades/

 

As always, discussion is appreciated. 

[RedBull34]

I thought all the trades made were great. I understand that there was some hope more would get moved, but I thought it a rather successful trade deadline for the Twins.

 

Hopefully Suzuki gets moved in August.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I liked Nunez and Abad.  Not a big fan of Nolasco (I'd rather have just used a DFA and kept Meyer), but the trade itself is pretty sound.  I'm kind of curious what the post waiver trades will look like. Suzuki, Plouffe, and Kintzler are all potential assets that might be traded.  I'm guessing at least one gets shipped off.

[gunnarthor]

I liked all three trades.  I do wish we moved Suzuki but we didn't.

 

Antony won't get the GM job so I think he did a nice job of moving non-important pieces while giving the next GM both more SP depth and the opportunity to move (or keep) Santana and Dozier.  

[ashbury]

Not a big fan of Nolasco (I'd rather have just used a DFA and kept Meyer)

DFA'ing Ricky means eating the salary. The narrative isn't finished with this deal. Suppose Santiago gets traded in the coming off-season for a single-A prospect of some mild promise - a Chih-Wei Hu type, someone with mixed reviews from scouts, just to be concrete. Then you have in essence a trade of Meyer for Busenitz plus Hu plus $9M of freed up money to apply to some need. Sound more enticing? For me, Meyer's high ceiling combined with his risks add up to less than this return. If Santiago just has to be non-tendered, it's a closer outcome but I'm still fine with it, ASSUMING the freed up money is used well in combination with other assets.

[Everyday Eddy]

I like all of these deals.    Mejia is a steal for what we sent out.    Light is a fine lottery ticket for Abad.   A change of scenery was needed for Meyer and good riddance to Nolasco.    Santiago has stuff that is clearly tougher to hit than the numbers would suggest and sometimes advanced stats people need to realize that what actually happens on the field is all that counts.    Hopefully he pitches well for us and next year we can roll with Berrios,    Santana(if not dealt),    Gibson,    Mejia,    and Santiago. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

sometimes advanced stats people need to realize that what actually happens on the field is all that counts. 

 

This is a weird sentence, dawg. Sometimes....or all?

[Everyday Eddy]

 

This is a weird sentence, dawg. Sometimes....or all?

How about ...Sometimes all

[ashbury]

This is a weird sentence, dawg. Sometimes....or all?

All results. Some statisticians.

[dgwills]

I'd agree that the Nunez and Abad trades were solid. The Twins are selling high on both of them and that's good to see.

The Nolasco trade is a little different. I'll give some points for creativity, but mostly it's a salary dump that costs us Alex Meyer. Nolasco is completely worthless, yet his contract ends next year and there's not really anywhere that money could be spent. With this trade the money will go to a guy who will most likely be a #4 starter without the Angels defense and pitcher friendly ball park.  A #4 starter is not going to make a team without a #1 or #2 starter a contender. The reliever they picked up has one pitch and bad control, so I'd consider him a non-prospect.

Meyer has been injured and underperformed, but he does have 2 of the top 5 pitches in the Twins system. If he learns to control them he's a shutdown reliever. We've seen how valuable that is with the Yankees trades this year.

Considering we are not going to contend in 2017 the only way we win this trade is if Santiago pitches well enough to warrant a qualifying offer. He has flashed talent in the past so it's possible. Most likely it will happen if he lowers his 4.3 BB per 9. 

I would contend that your grade on this trade has to be based on who you think is more likely to improve their command. Alex Meyer in the next few years or Hector Santiago next year. Of course neither could improve and the trade would be a wash.

The smart money is on Meyer if you ask me, so I'll rate that trade a D+ at this time

 

[Dantes929]

I still think Duffey has the stuff and will figure it out but who knows.    Too many question marks on the staff for me to want to give up Santana unless the return is awesome.    I am certainly not writing off next year and I don't want to have to go out and try to get a guy like Santana at more cost.   Why not just keep him at least for one more year.    I am happy to see Nolasco gone and Berrios up even if I would not be shocked to see Nolasco do well and Berrios struggle some.   I am ok with the Meyer ship sailing.   I liked the Meyer/Span trade at the time so I am not going to criticize it now.   Sometimes good moves don't work out.

[DocBauer]

While I hate losing Meyer, it just hasn't been working for him the last two years. Yes, he could suddenly get healthy and consistent and we could regret losing him. But then again, maybe that won't happen, and never would have happened here.

 

The other moves were smart. Santiago is absolutely an upgrade over Nolasco. Mejia has potential, and Light could be major with better control.

 

Well done I say!

[Craig Arko]

 

All results. Some statisticians.

At least 50 plus or minus 10 percent of the time.

[beckmt]

Final grade is 2 - 3 years down the road.  Depends on Meyer, Depends on Sanitago becoming a solid 3 rather than a 4-5 type.  Believe more in Santiago, Meyer was a head case who may have wanted out of here and was not working hard to get well.

[alarp33]

Nunez Trade: B+.  Thought this was the best deal.  I'm not going to go overboard and give him an A since there are questions about whether Mejia is a starter or reliever long term, but I thought it was a solid return.  

 

Abad Trade: B.  Meh, had to deal him, Light seems to have a chance of being a good bullpen arm.  Not sure that was a need they filled or anything, but ok return. 

 

Nolasco Trade: C+.  I think people are way overrating Santiago.  I still think Meyer can be a dominate bullpen arm.  Glad to see Nolasco go

 

Suzuki + Kintzler Still being here: F

 

Santana still being here: N/A. Won't penalize him for this, as I'd probably prefer the new GM trade him.  But would be interested to find out what kind of offers they fielded.  

 

Overall: C+.  Meh. 

 

 

[ashbury]

and was not working hard to get well.

Where in the world did you get this?

 

I have him marked down as chronic shoulder problems that will likely end his career.

[SwainZag]

I think the different opinions on Meyer are interesting.  I have always been pretty high on him, but between his age and injury history and the potential to invest the $8+ million owed to Nolasco elsewhere makes it a win to me. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I generally endorse the trades too, but I'm curious -- what exactly do the letter grades mean?  Brandon has them A, B+, and A-.  What would a "B" trade look like?  C, D, F?  A+?  Just curious.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

DFA'ing Ricky means eating the salary. The narrative isn't finished with this deal. Suppose Santiago gets traded in the coming off-season for a single-A prospect of some mild promise - a Chih-Wei Hu type, someone with mixed reviews from scouts, just to be concrete. Then you have in essence a trade of Meyer for Busenitz plus Hu plus $9M of freed up money to apply to some need. Sound more enticing? For me, Meyer's high ceiling combined with his risks add up to less than this return. If Santiago just has to be non-tendered, it's a closer outcome but I'm still fine with it, ASSUMING the freed up money is used well in combination with other assets.

 

More enticing, yes, but I'm skeptical.  Santiago isn't much more valuable than Milone I'd think. The real question is whether the staff is going to go full on youth and run Santana, Gibson, and some combo of May, Duffey, Berrios, Dean, Mejia, Wheeler or if they keep Milone and Santiago. 

[SwainZag]

 

Nunez Trade: B+.  Thought this was the best deal.  I'm not going to go overboard and give him an A since there are questions about whether Mejia is a starter or reliever long term, but I thought it was a solid return.  

 

Abad Trade: B.  Meh, had to deal him, Light seems to have a chance of being a good bullpen arm.  Not sure that was a need they filled or anything, but ok return. 

 

Nolasco Trade: C+.  I think people are way overrating Santiago.  I still think Meyer can be a dominate bullpen arm.  Glad to see Nolasco go

 

Suzuki + Kintzler Still being here: F

 

Santana still being here: N/A. Won't penalize him for this, as I'd probably prefer the new GM trade him.  But would be interested to find out what kind of offers they fielded.  

 

Overall: C+.  Meh. 

 

Hard for me to give them an F for Zuke and Kintzler being here.  I do really think the Lucroy situation screwed with the entire catching market.  Lucroy was the only catcher moved at the deadline, and it was last minute.

 

As for Kintzler, he very well could have had zero value.  32 years old, just over 30 innings pitched this year and a low K rate.  I think TD might have drummed up some mythical value for him being a "proven closer" after his 8 whole saves.  He very well could be a waiver claim as well.

[alarp33]

 

Hard for me to give them an F for Zuke and Kintzler being here.  I do really think the Lucroy situation screwed with the entire catching market.  Lucroy was the only catcher moved at the deadline, and it was last minute.

 

As for Kintzler, he very well could have had zero value.  32 years old, just over 30 innings pitched this year and a low K rate.  I think TD might have drummed up some mythical value for him being a "proven closer" after his 8 whole saves.  He very well could be a waiver claim as well.

 

I think (and very well could be wrong) that they value Suzuki much more than any other team in the league.  I feel like they should've been able to get something for him, but probably aimed too high. 

 

I agree Kintzler probably doesn't have much value.  Taking a bullpen spot of Chargois is detrimental, I would've flipped him for practically anything

[gocgo]

A couple of things.  First, Meyer is a risk.  He's got mechanical issues and shoulder problems.  Along with that, he had a tendancy to become derailed mentally if he disagreed with an umps call or when something went awry.  Don't discount the mental aspect of baseball.

 

Second, I can't help but chuckle at the people ready to usher the Yankees into the World Series in a couple of years for a dominant run.  Whoa!  Prospects do not equal pennants.  Use Meyer, Buxton, Sano, or whoever you want as an example, but things can go sideways with prospects in a hurry.  Did I think they made wise moves?  Yup.  Do I think that guarantees them anything?  Nope.  Injuries, the NY spotlight, and a hundred other things can derail all that.  I do think that they have the resources to recover if those prospects don't pan out, but let's not hand them any trophies just yet.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

 

 

Second, I can't help but chuckle at the people ready to usher the Yankees into the World Series in a couple of years for a dominant run.  Whoa!  Prospects do not equal pennants.  Use Meyer, Buxton, Sano, or whoever you want as an example, but things can go sideways with prospects in a hurry.  Did I think they made wise moves?  Yup.  Do I think that guarantees them anything?  Nope.  Injuries, the NY spotlight, and a hundred other things can derail all that.  I do think that they have the resources to recover if those prospects don't pan out, but let's not hand them any trophies just yet.

 

The Yankees flip prospects for stars and pay for other stars, so you can almost guarantee they'll be back on top pretty quick.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Hard for me to give them an F for Zuke and Kintzler being here.  I do really think the Lucroy situation screwed with the entire catching market.  Lucroy was the only catcher moved at the deadline, and it was last minute.

I agree "F" is probably too harsh, but Milwaukee's negotiations with Cleveland were "totally dead" by Sunday morning, ~28 hours ahead of the deadline.  Plus, I suspect not all of Lucroy's suitors were taking a "Lucroy or bust" attitude (unless they simply didn't like any of the other available catchers, of course, but that's a separate issue than whether we had enough time to strike a deal).

[jimmer]

 

A couple of things.  First, Meyer is a risk.  He's got mechanical issues and shoulder problems.  Along with that, he had a tendancy to become derailed mentally if he disagreed with an umps call or when something went awry.  Don't discount the mental aspect of baseball.

 

Second, I can't help but chuckle at the people ready to usher the Yankees into the World Series in a couple of years for a dominant run.  Whoa!  Prospects do not equal pennants.  Use Meyer, Buxton, Sano, or whoever you want as an example, but things can go sideways with prospects in a hurry.  Did I think they made wise moves?  Yup.  Do I think that guarantees them anything?  Nope.  Injuries, the NY spotlight, and a hundred other things can derail all that.  I do think that they have the resources to recover if those prospects don't pan out, but let's not hand them any trophies just yet.

Who is doing that?

[markos]

 

I agree "F" is probably too harsh, but Milwaukee's negotiations with Cleveland were "totally dead" by Sunday morning, ~28 hours ahead of the deadline.  Plus, I suspect not all of Lucroy's suitors were taking a "Lucroy or bust" attitude (unless they simply didn't like any of the other available catchers, of course, but that's a separate issue than whether we had enough time to strike a deal).

My opinion is that since Lucroy was the only catcher moved, there is a good chance that they simply didn't like the other available catchers. There were other names out there (Norris most notably) besides Suzuki. 

[alarp33]

 

My opinion is that since Lucroy was the only catcher moved, there is a good chance that they simply didn't like the other available catchers. There were other names out there (Norris most notably) besides Suzuki. 

 

Norris has multiple years of control, the Padres had no reason to move him if they didn't find an offer to their liking.  Suzuki leaves for nothing in 2 months. 

[gocgo]

 

Who is doing that?

Plenty of "experts" on MLB network, ESPN, and even right here.

[jimmer]

 

Plenty of "experts" on MLB network, ESPN, and even right here.

I haven't read anything like that but praising what they did at the deadline, so I guess I'll take your word for it.

 

It's important to note they were in the playoffs last year, are at .500 now, always have money to spend, and now have 7 of the top 100 prospects.  That team is usually in the thick of it.

[gocgo]

 

I haven't read anything like that but praising what they did at the deadline, so I guess I'll take your word for it.

 

It's important to note they were in the playoffs last year, are at .500 now, always have money to spend, and now have 7 of the top 100 prospects.  That team is usually in the thick of it.

Oh, don't get me wrong.  I like their moves and we all know that they are willing to spend to get talent where it isn't home grown.  The problem is that the players still have to execute and stay healthy and all that.  It takes talent, but it also takes some luck to win a World Series.