Grading The Deadline

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

Value relative to what was being given up... that's my 2 cents at least.  Don't have too much of an issue with his grades. Only trade I didn't like was Nolasco, and not that it wasn't a bad one from everyone's standpoint, just that I'd rather have eaten the contract and DFAd him and kept Meyer.

My understanding of the Nolasco trade:  money was exchanged to make it financially neutral.  So really, it was just a player swap.   Meyer seems to have injury issues.  Change of scenery may help.  I wish him good luck! 

 

Nolasco + Meyer for Santiago + Busenitz?  Yup, I'd do that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

My understanding of the Nolasco trade:  money was exchanged to make it financially neutral.  So really, it was just a player swap.   Meyer seems to have injury issues.  Change of scenery may help.  I wish him good luck! 

 

Nolasco + Meyer for Santiago + Busenitz?  Yup, I'd do that.

 

Well, they also have the flexibility to not tender Santiago, and save 8-9MM......that has real value.

[ashbury]

Heard yesterday he will start throwing in the next week.  Seems like a fast change.

We've been hearing things like this about him for months.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The problem with this entire analysis is that the Twins don't have pitching prospects that are ready and blocked next year. The AA/AAA rotations are full of non prospect pitchers (and Gonsalves and Stewart - not ready next year). The only prospect that I want to see brought up next year is the recently acquired Mejia.

 

 

So next year you're looking at a most-likely starting rotation of:

 

Santana

Berrios

Hughes

Santiago

Gibson

 

Santiago gets in the way of Meija getting his shot, Duffey continuing to work in the rotation, May getting back into the rotation. And even if Hughes doesn't come back and all three of Meija/Duffey/May don't work out, we'd be better off getting some of those non-prospects like Wheeler/Dean/Rogers/Albers a shot. Santiago isn't going to be on the next good Twins team and those guys might be. It'd be one thing if Santiago was 25 and might become a better pitcher but he's not. He is what he is and what he is is something the Twins really don't need next year. Nolasco to Santiago is way more of a sideways move than I am comfortable with since he takes up a rotation spot with below average pitching and no upside.

[ThejacKmp]

 

They lose on potential upside but I think they prevent the FO from signing an aging solid starter to a multiyear contract. The rotation is so bad next year that they almost need to bring in a stopgap. Don't worry there will be plenty of chances for any prospects that are decent at all to earn a spot.

 

This is an interesting point. I think it would have more credence if TR was still in charge but with a new voice, I don't think we can say "well at least they won't make a dumber choice" and make that our reason for liking a move. We should assume competence til proven otherwise.

 

And there is a log jam - outside of a trade of Santana this offseason, Santiago will absolutely take up a spot someone who will be on the next good Twins team could have.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So next year you're looking at a most-likely starting rotation of:

 

Santana

Berrios

Hughes

Santiago

Gibson

 

Santiago gets in the way of Meija getting his shot, Duffey continuing to work in the rotation, May getting back into the rotation. And even if Hughes doesn't come back and all three of Meija/Duffey/May don't work out, we'd be better off getting some of those non-prospects like Wheeler/Dean/Rogers/Albers a shot. Santiago isn't going to be on the next good Twins team and those guys might be. It'd be one thing if Santiago was 25 and might become a better pitcher but he's not. He is what he is and what he is is something the Twins really don't need next year. Nolasco to Santiago is way more of a sideways move than I am comfortable with since he takes up a rotation spot with below average pitching and no upside.

 

Hughes will not be starting in April, imo. 

 

If they expect him to start, and Santiago isn't great.....won't they just non-tender Santiago?

[ThejacKmp]

 

Hughes will not be starting in April, imo. 

 

If they expect him to start, and Santiago isn't great.....won't they just non-tender Santiago?

 

I'd hope so but I don't see the Twins doing it. I know they'll have a new GM but even that new GM is likely to think that $8 million or so is a cheap price to pay for a #4 pitcher. And he (or she!) will be right. I'm just not sure it's the best route since I'd like to see more youth options.

 

If Hughes is healthy (and he should be) I think he'll be back in the rotation. He may have a short leash but they'll want to give him another shot. And that's not crazy, it's been a bad last few years but he did get Cy Young votes in 2014.

 

Even if he isn't in the rotation, that 5th spot will go to May/Meija/Duffey.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

We've been hearing things like this about him for months.

Meyer?  Could be that the Twins were being extra cautious with him, trying to avoid further complications while they shopped him in trade.

 

Now that he's been moved, I wouldn't be surprised if the Angels are more aggressive about getting him back in action.

[kab21]

 

So next year you're looking at a most-likely starting rotation of:

 

Santana

Berrios

Hughes

Santiago

Gibson

 

Santiago gets in the way of Meija getting his shot, Duffey continuing to work in the rotation, May getting back into the rotation. And even if Hughes doesn't come back and all three of Meija/Duffey/May don't work out, we'd be better off getting some of those non-prospects like Wheeler/Dean/Rogers/Albers a shot. Santiago isn't going to be on the next good Twins team and those guys might be. It'd be one thing if Santiago was 25 and might become a better pitcher but he's not. He is what he is and what he is is something the Twins really don't need next year. Nolasco to Santiago is way more of a sideways move than I am comfortable with since he takes up a rotation spot with below average pitching and no upside.

Hughes is probably toast and I doubt May is headed back to the rotation. the rotation is awful w/o a pair of veterans like Santana and Santiago. Every year people complain about prospects being blocked by a theoretically deep rotation and every year the rotation sucks and the prospects get plenty of chances. And the only blocking that occurs is by absolutely awful pitchers like Pelfrey and Nolasco. Santiago is actually an average pitcher and nothing like those yet.

 

Santana

Santiago

Gibson

Berrios

Duffey

 

Mejia

The suspects of Wheeler/Dean/Albers/etc

 

Don't worry, you will get plenty of chances to see the likes of Wheeler, Dean and their mediocre MiLB K rates.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Hughes is probably toast and I doubt May is headed back to the rotation. the rotation is awful w/o a pair of veterans like Santana and Santiago. Every year people complain about prospects being blocked by a theoretically deep rotation and every year the rotation sucks and the prospects get plenty of chances. And the only blocking that occurs is by absolutely awful pitchers like Pelfrey and Nolasco. Santiago is actually an average pitcher and nothing like those yet.

 

Santana

Santiago

Gibson

Berrios

Duffey

 

Mejia

The suspects of Wheeler/Dean/Albers/etc

 

Don't worry, you will get plenty of chances to see the likes of Wheeler, Dean and their mediocre MiLB K rates.

 

1.)  Hughes is probably toast

Not sure why everyone has written off Hughes. He's signed to a contract that will make the Twins want to start him and every report I read about him said the Twins expect him to be ready for spring training. The surgery he had was not particularly crazy. Will he be any good next year? No way to know and I wouldn't gamble the house on it but to say he is toast and won't be in the rotation seems pretty naïve. If healthy, he likely has a spot sewn up and will have to lose it through performance early in the year.

2.) The rotation is awful w/o a pair of veterans like Santana and Santiago. Every year people complain about prospects being blocked by a theoretically deep rotation and every year the rotation sucks and the prospects get plenty of chances.

 

And you want to just run it back? Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a different result. The problem for me with that last sentence is “the rotation sucks”. Let’s stop bringing out veteran pitchers who suck. Santiago is Ricky Nolasco and Mike Pelfrey in a different guise. Why would anyone want to keep blocking prospects (even marginal ones) with gutter trash? Let the young guys play from the beginning, at least you’ll know who they are and if they fit your plans.

 

3.) Santiago is actually an average pitcher and nothing like those yet.

 

Even you are putting the word "yet" there because we all know it’s the most likely outcome. If it hasn’t happened already: Santiago has a higher FIP in 2016 than Nolasco and Mike Pelfrey. Maybe there's something about Santiago that lets him consistently outpitch his FIP but I highly doubt it. And even if Santiago is somehow average (and not below average like I suspect), the Twins shouldn't be making one year commitments to average pitchers. They need to be looking for guys who can be part of the future and have some sort of upside. That ain't Santiago.

 

4.) I doubt May is headed back to the rotation

 

Since May got at least a nominal shot at the rotation last spring, it’s hard to see him not getting that same shot with a new GM in town. And even if it seems unlikely he’ll make the rotation, that’s kind of my whole point – if you have Santiago, it’s that much harder for May to earn a spot in the rotation. Without Santiago, you’d be looking at Santana/Gibson/Berrios/Hughes and a real competition between Duffey, May and Mejia for the 5th spot. As is, those three will be competing to be the guy if one of the other five gets hurt. It’s too easy to slot May back into the pen at that point. If you want Trevor May to have a legitimate shot at the rotation, he needs to have a slot to compete for in spring training. Once Spring Training ends, May is likely to be passed by the Duffeys and Mejias in AAA who are already stretched out. Santiago makes it unlikely May will have that opportunity.

 

5.) You will get plenty of chances to see the likes of Wheeler, Dean and their mediocre MiLB K rates.

 

First of all, Wheeler has a decent AAA K rate this year, the same as Santiago has in the majors. Obviously that will likely dip in the majors but that’s again, that’s kind of the point. Wouldn’t you rather see what a Wheeler can do in the majors than have the utter lack of upside that is Santiago? Santiago makes sense if the Twins had a solid starting rotation, were looking to compete for the division and needed a 5th starter. He’s not part of the Twins of the future and thus is a waste of a rotation spot.

[twinssouth]

Nolasco didn't shine in his Angels debut, giving up 3 homers, 5 earned runs. Santiago's debut was slightly better. So far, Twins up

[Shane Wahl]

Has anyone around here been speculating on what in the hell the three-team deal was that the Twins came close to completing?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Has anyone around here been speculating on what in the hell the three-team deal was that the Twins came close to completing?

 

There was a thread on it... I for one would really liked to have seen what it was.  Most common guess was Esan to Toronto.

[kab21]

Defense and stadium don't explain an entire run difference between FIP and ERA. Nor does Santiago being much better than his FIP while in Chicago. Or that the Twins will likely have an OF defense of Kepler/Buxton/Rosario/Grossman which should be pretty good. There is no evidence that Santiago sucks other than your gross misuse of FIP.

 

The biggest problem the Twins have had is not cutting dreadfully awful veterans. Everyone knew that Nolasco was awful and he still started for 4 months this year. And yet prospects still have gotten their chance. If the Twins go into next season with the current starters then any prospect that deserves a chance will get their chance. Teams need a lot of starters to get through the season. The last thing you want is to depend on a guy like Wheeler, Dean or Albers. Even on a team that is rebuilding you don't want these guys to be higher than option 8-10 for the rotation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Defense and stadium don't explain an entire run difference between FIP and ERA. 

Santiago's career home/away splits are virtually indistinguishable from one another. He wasn't the beneficiary of a home field advantage.

 

And he has pitched long enough where it's unlikely defense had much of an impact, either. When a guy crosses the threshold into 4+ seasons of pitching, the defense behind him has shifted enough players where it *should* approach something close to neutral.

 

And it's not as if the Angels have been a pillar of defensive baseball over the past few years. They've been pretty good the past two years and were somewhat bad the year before that.