Should Sano Get Demoted?

[Jham]

 

'The FO made the decision on boderline players. What makes the call on Arcia wrong is the FO made the decision. Just like they made the decision to keep Santana. They can point to Arcia'skind of decent half year and say that he will develop from there while totally dismissingSantana's great season calling it luck. '

 

Arcia's decent season wasn't helped by a BABIP in the 400s like Santana's great one was. 

 

Arcia's BABIP wasn't even the .300s in 2014, it was in the 200s, but I guess we can say their seasons were the same kind of seasons when we exclude any analysis of the seasons.  Better just to be more efficient and say people were picking on the old GM.

I still haven't received a great answer on this, but if Santana's great season was mostly BABIP, where'd the boost in power come from?  27 Doubles 7 triples and 7 HR in 430 at bats...

You're not at all curious to see if that can re-emerge?  Really only 2015 was horrible, and he had a weird reversal of form, particularly from the left side that was not BABIP attributable.  His splits have began to come back this season.  It would be weird to suffer through his miserable 2015 only to cut him a month before rosters expand in 2016 after watching him improve somewhat...

Close call.  Sort of like Arcia.  I'm fine either way.  Sano needs to stay up for now.  It's too early to be sending messages.  Other teams' FO notice messages too if it ever comes down to needing to trade Sano.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

DFAing Santana isn't much different than Arcia in my opinion.  Potential is still there, and while his ceiling certainly isn't as high as Arcia, he is already at his floor, and that floor can be a useful piece if used properly.  Won't argue Molitor's usage with DanSan, but this isn't where I'm acting. 

 

Can guys on the DL get passed through waivers?  Just curious, b/c if so, I'd have already sent Plouffe through.  He could still potentially be traded while on assignment to a team needing a 3B.  I'd be happy getting someone like a Pat Light for him... just get him off the 25 man.

[dxpavelka]

No.  And I will agree with the comments above regarding Molitor.  In fact I'll take them a step further and say that if Molitor was complicit in the move to RF he should be fired right along with Ryan.  I said all winter that the move from a position he was somewhat comfortable at to a place he had no business being could affect his hitting.  I was pretty much laughed at on this very page.  NOW we want to say that might be the case?  Put him at 3B every day from now until at least the end of 2017.  MIGHT hurt you a bit with the glove.  Will most likely reward you with the bat.

[Mr. Brooks]

I still haven't received a great answer on this, but if Santana's great season was mostly BABIP, where'd the boost in power come from? 27 Doubles 7 triples and 7 HR in 430 at bats...

 

You're not at all curious to see if that can re-emerge? Really only 2015 was horrible, and he had a weird reversal of form, particularly from the left side that was not BABIP attributable. His splits have began to come back this season. It would be weird to suffer through his miserable 2015 only to cut him a month before rosters expand in 2016 after watching him improve somewhat...

 

Close call. Sort of like Arcia. I'm fine either way. Sano needs to stay up for now. It's too early to be sending messages. Other teams' FO notice messages too if it ever comes down to needing to trade Sano.

 

 

An inflated babip doesn't only have to lead to singles. Particularly for a player that has good speed, you can get "lucky" doubles and triples. I'd have to look at how many of them were fly balls vs. line drives.

 

Of course, it wouldn't affect HR's, but he only had 7, it's not like he hit 25. I'd have to look at where they landed, but just spit balling, it's possible a good number of them were barely HR's.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I still haven't received a great answer on this, but if Santana's great season was mostly BABIP, where'd the boost in power come from?  27 Doubles 7 triples and 7 HR in 430 at bats...

You're not at all curious to see if that can re-emerge?  Really only 2015 was horrible, and he had a weird reversal of form, particularly from the left side that was not BABIP attributable.  His splits have began to come back this season.  It would be weird to suffer through his miserable 2015 only to cut him a month before rosters expand in 2016 after watching him improve somewhat...

Close call.  Sort of like Arcia.  I'm fine either way.  Sano needs to stay up for now.  It's too early to be sending messages.  Other teams' FO notice messages too if it ever comes down to needing to trade Sano.

 

 

Except he didn't really have a minor league record of success either.......again, if you plan Santana, you aren't playing whom? Buxton? Rosario? Kepler? Escobar? Polanco? Sano?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Except he didn't really have a minor league record of success either.......again, if you plan Santana, you aren't playing whom? Buxton? Rosario? Kepler? Escobar? Polanco? Sano?

You listed a bunch of starting players, Mike. I don't think anyone believes Santana is a starter.

 

He's not competing for a position. He's competing for a bench spot.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You listed a bunch of starting players, Mike. I don't think anyone believes Santana is a starter.

He's not competing for a position. He's competing for a bench spot.

 

Fair, but there are only 25 of those for another 3-4 weeks......but Molitor is the manager, as long as Santana is here*, he plays......

 

*I can type "here" this week, I am in MN.....for work......it's just a coincidence I get to see my kid, mom, dad, friends......

[Mr. Brooks]

You listed a bunch of starting players, Mike. I don't think anyone believes Santana is a starter.

 

He's not competing for a position. He's competing for a bench spot.

But the problem is Molitor views him as a semi regular player. Every time Mollie starts Santana, one of those guys has to sit.

[Mr. Brooks]

A comment, and for Brandon a question.

 

In a vacuum, I suppose I'm ok with Santana as a true bench player. Personally, I'd still prefer an upgrade.

Santana is a negative WAR player. I think that even bench players should at the least be WAR neutral, and preferably a half win to a win and a half of positive WAR.

 

But, nothing is ever a vacuum.

Problem 1 is that Mollie is the manager for at least another year. He simply cannot help himself when it comes to DanSan.

 

Problem 2 is that DanSan is an awful baserunner, and a below average to poor fielder. He also doesn't have much for power.

That eliminates 3 bench roles that IMO he should not be used for: defensive substitute, pinch runner or pinch hitter. (Again, Mollie can't help but use him as a def. replacement and pinch runner.)

The only role that leaves him with is fill in for emergencies and short term injuries.

With larger pitching staffs these days, I'm just not sure there is room for a player with such a limited role.

 

My question for Brandon is:

Ok, I understand you want to hold onto him in case he finds some of that 2014 magic.

How long can he be a negative WAR player before you are willing to move on?

Are you willing to carry him for all of 2017, as a negative WAR player, and playing way more than he should (Molitor is coming back), if he continues to put up a negative WAR?

[drivlikejehu]

Another start for Santana. It's ridiculous.

[jimmer]

 

But the problem is Molitor views him as a semi regular player. Every time Mollie starts Santana, one of those guys has to sit.

He has started more than 50% of the games he's been available for.  He plays quite a bit.

[Jham]

Except he didn't really have a minor league record of success either.......again, if you plan Santana, you aren't playing whom? Buxton? Rosario? Kepler? Escobar? Polanco? Sano?

His aaa numbers appear solid. I dunno. Power numbers aren't usually flukey without artificial inflation. Seeing Santana go from being a super solid left handed hitter to horrible is just odd. Now this year he's better again from the left. Since this is a Sano thread, and most want Sano to get every chance, it does seem odd that so few want to see Santana given the same opportunity even as a super utility. The age thing has swayed me. At 25, it's too early to give up on him.

[Linus]

Meanwhile back at the original topic....I have no idea if Sano is dedicated to his craft. The Twins do know and if he isn't working hard especially considering his problems in the field and at the plate, sending him down might be the best thing to do.

[alarp33]

Good thing Santana is so versatile, instead of hitting him in the face that flyball may have rolled to the wall

[Linus]

Good thing Santana is so versatile, instead of hitting him in the face that flyball may have rolled to the wall

Yep first guy to ever lose a ball in the lights....

[drivlikejehu]

 

Yep first guy to ever lose a ball in the lights....

 

Yeah, and the rest of the time Santana is so solid out there. 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

For the record, I don't think Sano gets sent down and suspect that Vargas will play out the minor league season and then get recalled in September. Plouffe will spell Joe at first allowing Sano a couple of games a week at third.

 

The big question is what happens this off season. Kind of hard to let Plouffe go until you have confidence in Sano. If they resign themselves to the fact that Sano is their primary DH, then either Vargas or Park, if not both will go.

[wickedslider]

\

OK, so what should the Twins do with the 9 position players on the roster worse than him?

As long as those players are putting forward maximum effort then I'd let those players stay up as a message that hard work gets rewarded. Sure it is nice to have guys develop at the ML level. But if sending a message now early on in Sano's career, is indeed necessary, then I think it is better to do it early rather than late.

[Ncgo4]

Absolutely not.  There is nothing he can learn in AAA ball.  Sano is a real issue for the Twins.  His development has been totally mismanaged by Ryan and Molly.  Putting him in right was only not tragic because he didn't have a year ending injury.  Now they're screwing around with him at third.

 

His production has been miserable.  He can't hit a lick, except that every 3 weeks or so he hits 2 or 3 dingers in a 4 game stretch, almost none of which was in a close game at an important moment in a game.  Counting on him to drive in a run in a critical moment is fool hardy.  If he didn't walk a lot he'd be a bigger liability than Punto used to be.  The worst part is he seems to want to be good more than almost anyone on the team.  Witness his broken bat when he failed when we needed him a few games ago. Witness Tuesday's game when Cleveland walked Kepler intentionally to get to Sano.  He responded with a double to deep center field.  Of course the score was 6-0 at the time so he was under no pressure other than his pride was hurt.

 

However, I'm afraid that until he gets in shape he will continue to be a hole in the lineup and in the field that will continue to be a laughing stock.  Look at him!  He's not an ounce less than 270 and what will he do when he's 26 years old and 290?  At this point in his career, what a waste.  Instead of thinking of his pride when the intentionally walk Kepler to get to him, I wish his pride would kick in when he has his 6th slice of pizza.

 

 

[The Wise One]

 

I still haven't received a great answer on this, but if Santana's great season was mostly BABIP, where'd the boost in power come from?  27 Doubles 7 triples and 7 HR in 430 at bats...

You're not at all curious to see if that can re-emerge?  Really only 2015 was horrible, and he had a weird reversal of form, particularly from the left side that was not BABIP attributable.  His splits have began to come back this season.  It would be weird to suffer through his miserable 2015 only to cut him a month before rosters expand in 2016 after watching him improve somewhat...

Close call.  Sort of like Arcia.  I'm fine either way.  Sano needs to stay up for now.  It's too early to be sending messages.  Other teams' FO notice messages too if it ever comes down to needing to trade Sano.

 

Santana had a .319 BA    With a BABIP of 409. In the days of higher strikeouts the difference for an average hitter is around 45-50 points.  Many factors go into BABI   Better  LD%, speed, hard hit ball %  correlates to higher BABIP and, of course, the other team's defense.   I would imagine there was not much data on where Santana hit balls to so the defenses probably did not even shade him in 2014. Santana had higher numbers in some of the areas above the average player,  that  would increase BABIP. Not every outlier is totally luck, the other factors do come into play

[glunn]

Moderator note - please be respectful of people you disagree with, even if you think that they are totally wrong.

[Platoon]

Santana is Robbie Grossman without the walks, but with speed and an arm. Both take less than optimim routes, and both have a year of hitting aberration. Whether one believes Santana is an adequate IF or not, he can at least play there. RG cannot. And Santana can play the OF, something no other Twins IF has came close to succeeding at, or have we forgotten EE, LF'er? As for the 25th man discussion, he/it does exist. And for a team that uses 13 pitchers, in a league with a DH, flexibility is a key. It would suck to have to send Polanco back, or DFA DanSan just because the FO can't figure out you can't have 6 corner IF/DH on the same team. But back to our original programming. The only way Sano goes to MiLB is to get his attention. Otherwise no.

[laloesch]

 

Absolutely not.  There is nothing he can learn in AAA ball.  Sano is a real issue for the Twins.  His development has been totally mismanaged by Ryan and Molly.  Putting him in right was only not tragic because he didn't have a year ending injury.  Now they're screwing around with him at third.

 

His production has been miserable.  He can't hit a lick, except that every 3 weeks or so he hits 2 or 3 dingers in a 4 game stretch, almost none of which was in a close game at an important moment in a game.  Counting on him to drive in a run in a critical moment is fool hardy.  If he didn't walk a lot he'd be a bigger liability than Punto used to be.  The worst part is he seems to want to be good more than almost anyone on the team.  Witness his broken bat when he failed when we needed him a few games ago. Witness Tuesday's game when Cleveland walked Kepler intentionally to get to Sano.  He responded with a double to deep center field.  Of course the score was 6-0 at the time so he was under no pressure other than his pride was hurt.

 

However, I'm afraid that until he gets in shape he will continue to be a hole in the lineup and in the field that will continue to be a laughing stock.  Look at him!  He's not an ounce less than 270 and what will he do when he's 26 years old and 290?  At this point in his career, what a waste.  Instead of thinking of his pride when the intentionally walk Kepler to get to him, I wish his pride would kick in when he has his 6th slice of pizza.

 

How bout the whole pizza?  When i was 23/24 I could eat a whole pizza easy, so I can imagine what his his consumption is like (I'm 6'-5" and 225lbs.).  Given his size and age and the fact that he's an athlete he's probably consuming close to 3000 calories a day.    

[Champuckett]

I think this has been mentioned countless times before, but we all knew at some point Sano was going to move from 3B to 1B due to fielding woes and durability issues of such a behemoth of a man.

 

This may be happening sooner rather than later as Mauer enters the final 2 years of his contract and continues to decline in productivity.

[Danchat]

 

 

Twins manager Paul Molitor hinted Thursday that Miguel Sano could be demoted to Triple-A Rochester when Trevor Plouffe (rib) returns from the disabled list.

Plouffe is due back Monday, by the way. Sano has been filling in at third base for Minnesota over the last four weeks, but he's slashing just .219/.265/.344 since the All-Star break and he's certainly not going to take Max Kepler's spot in right field. It's been a frustrating season all around for the Twins.

from Rotoworld

 

I think Sano getting demoted is a little more realistic than I imagined.

[Vanimal46]

My God... That would be a stupid, stupid move to do IMO. 

[Mike Sixel]

If this FO and manager had been in charge in the 80s.....when would we have seen some of the stars of 87? about 1995?

[nytwinsfan]

If you think Sano's problem is confidence, AND you think demoting him to work on some things will help his confidence, then I would be ok with it for a short period of time. But those are two big assumptions I'm not sure about.  I don't agree with demoting him because his work ethic is not where it should be, unless they have repeatedly spoken with him about it and don't see any increased effort AND they think that lack of effort is really holding him back.

 

My concern is if he responds to a demotion in his mind with the reaction, "they don't respect me, they don't appreciate me, **** them."  I would hope that wouldn't be it, but it is always a possibility, especially if it is done in a disrespectful way.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

I think this has been mentioned countless times before, but we all knew at some point Sano was going to move from 3B to 1B due to fielding woes and durability issues of such a behemoth of a man.

 

This may be happening sooner rather than later as Mauer enters the final 2 years of his contract and continues to decline in productivity.

Speak for yourself. I STILL don't know that Sano is going to move to 1B at some point, unless by some point you mean when he's around 30. Lots of others don't agree with that as well.

[toosweet64]

I think Sano has to go down at this point, if not just to send a message. Baserunning errors, reportedly skipping early batting practice, obviously guessing at the plate, shoddy and lazy defense. How is he exactly helping this club right now? It ain't with the bat. Let Vargas DH. If Sano gets it going by September, bring him back. 

 

Hopefully, this would send a message to Sano. You can't be lazy in the offseason, ignore coaching, and simply guess at the plate. Talent only gets you so far in the bigs.