Trevor May...what would you do?

[FormerMinnasotan]

May is just another AAAA pitcher. He may have some good months ala Scott Diamond, but nothing special no matter whether he starts, or whether he is in the pen. Just another Twins pitcher that takes up space for far too long and paralyzes fans with false hope. Japan is calling.

Not sure May is a AAAA pitcher. At any rate, we need to replace two starters in our rotation asap (Nolasco and Milone). Jose Berrios is the obvious choice for one rotation spot and to be honest IMO Trevor May is the next best option after Berrios. I mean Alex Meyer is hurt so he is not an option, and May as a stater is better than rolling out Jason Wheeler, Pat Dean, Logan Darnell, or Andrew Albers in the #5 spot. If May does terrible then we wait it out till either Stephen Gonsalves or Kohl Stewart are ready to pitch in the Twins rotation.

[dxpavelka]

 

The longer this thread goes on, my thoughts have changed slightly. I don't think, as I did when I first posted, that May should be stretched out for 4-5 starts/3 weeks in Rochester. I think he should slot into the rotation with the Twins right now, knowing that for the next 4-5 starts, that's a bullpen game. I mean, they have 13 pitchers, right? They should be able to absorb that.

 

1st start - 40-45 pitches

2nd start - 50-55 pitches

3rd start - 60-65 pitches

4th start - 70-80 pitches

5th start - 85-100 pitches

 

After that? Go, Trevor May. Go. 

On this team this year?  He could do that pitching out of the pen.

 

[laloesch]

 

Not sure May is a AAAA pitcher. At any rate, we need to replace two starters in our rotation asap (Nolasco and Milone). Jose Berrios is the obvious choice for one rotation spot and to be honest IMO Trevor May is the next best option after Berrios. I mean Alex Meyer is hurt so he is not an option, and May as a stater is better than rolling out Jason Wheeler, Pat Dean, Logan Darnell, or Andrew Albers in the #5 spot. If May does terrible then we wait it out till either Stephen Gonsalves or Kohl Stewart are ready to pitch in the Twins rotation.

 

Yes.  One way or the other i think the Twins are going to be waiting out the arrival of Stephen Gonsalves and that is disturbing.  

[tobi0040]

A few notes about a recent Pioneer Press article called “Twins feel the sting of misfired Span, Revere trades”. This was a really sloppy article out of the Pioneer Press. They said Revere was traded for “hard throwing righties May and Worley”. Worley’s fastball has averaged 89.8 over his career.

 

And Ben Revere has a career WAR of 6.5 across 7 seasons and he is currently making $6m per year. So I am not sure what sting we are feeling here.

 

But what really irritates me is the comments from Terry Ryan.

 

“I thought both of these guys would be in the rotation right now”. OK. You get a little pass for Meyer since he has been hurt a ton. But the reason May is not in the rotation is because you put him there.

 

And “May, we felt like he was a little better fit in the bullpen the way we were set up last year”. OK, what about this year?

 

http://www.twincities.com/2016/07/11/mn-twins-denard-span-ben-revere-trade-misfire/

[Riverbrian]

 

Near unanimity! I backed the club's move to put May in the 'pen believing a)May would be a lights-out setup man and b)that the Twins had a chance to contend. It is time to give May another chance in the rotation.

 

I'm in complete lockstep with String.

 

I liked his work in the bullpen and I felt it was necessary for him to remain in the bullpen since the bullpen wasn't significantly addressed. That thinking was based on the Twins possibly contending. 

 

With them out of contention... Stretch May Out and see if he can be part of the SP solution in 2017. 

 

 

[alarp33]

 

A few notes about a recent Pioneer Press article called “Twins feel the sting of misfired Span, Revere trades”. This was a really sloppy article out of the Pioneer Press. They said Revere was traded for “hard throwing righties May and Worley”. Worley’s fastball has averaged 89.8 over his career.

And Ben Revere has a career WAR of 6.5 across 7 seasons and he is currently making $6m per year. So I am not sure what sting we are feeling here.

But what really irritates me is the comments from Terry Ryan.

“I thought both of these guys would be in the rotation right now”. OK. You get a little pass for Meyer since he has been hurt a ton. But the reason May is not in the rotation is because you put him there.

And “May, we felt like he was a little better fit in the bullpen the way we were set up last year”. OK, what about this year?

http://www.twincities.com/2016/07/11/mn-twins-denard-span-ben-revere-trade-misfire/

 

Awful article.  They also called Revere an "above avg hitting OFer".  88 wRC+ since leaving MN.  That John Shipley is a hack, I'm not sure where he came from but I haven't been impressed by anything he has written. 

 

And yes, the Ryan comments were... disturbing

[wsnydes]

 

A few notes about a recent Pioneer Press article called “Twins feel the sting of misfired Span, Revere trades”. This was a really sloppy article out of the Pioneer Press. They said Revere was traded for “hard throwing righties May and Worley”. Worley’s fastball has averaged 89.8 over his career.

And Ben Revere has a career WAR of 6.5 across 7 seasons and he is currently making $6m per year. So I am not sure what sting we are feeling here.

But what really irritates me is the comments from Terry Ryan.

“I thought both of these guys would be in the rotation right now”. OK. You get a little pass for Meyer since he has been hurt a ton. But the reason May is not in the rotation is because you put him there.

And “May, we felt like he was a little better fit in the bullpen the way we were set up last year”. OK, what about this year?

http://www.twincities.com/2016/07/11/mn-twins-denard-span-ben-revere-trade-misfire/

I agree with your assessment.  i thought the article was lazy and piling onto the heaps of negativity surrounding this franchise.  There are enough legitimate reasons to pile on this franchise, we don't need to start making stuff up too.

 

I've never really missed Revere.  Even with May in the bullpen, I still look at that deal as at worst a win/win for both teams involved. 

 

The Span deal is a bit more bothersome because I really like Span and they've not been able to replace him in the field or at leadoff since.  I liked the deal at the time, and I think it still can be a good one.  There's only so much that can be done about a guy being injured as much as Meyer has.  

[scottz]

 

But what really irritates me is the comments from Terry Ryan.

“I thought both of these guys would be in the rotation right now”. 

 

Yeesh. How does a reporter not follow that comment up with a question of how did he get in the bullpen after pitching well as a starter last year?

 

In every man language, Terry Ryan's quote is equivalent to, "I thought that my lawn would be mowed by now."

 

But it just keeps getting not mowed. I can't figure out why it isn't mowed.

[tobi0040]

I agree with your assessment.  i thought the article was lazy and piling onto the heaps of negativity surrounding this franchise.  There are enough legitimate reasons to pile on this franchise, we don't need to start making stuff up too.

 

I've never really missed Revere.  Even with May in the bullpen, I still look at that deal as at worst a win/win for both teams involved. 

 

The Span deal is a bit more bothersome because I really like Span and they've not been able to replace him in the field or at leadoff since.  I liked the deal at the time, and I think it still can be a good one.  There's only so much that can be done about a guy being injured as much as Meyer has.

I completely agree. It was a terrible article and you don’t have to look too far if you want to throw up a negative Twins article.

 

I have been as vocal of Terry Ryan as anyone. But I really can’t criticize the Span trade. The guy was under-appreciated here. But we were coming off 63 and 66 wins seasons. His contract was a huge asset. And we had literally no pitching at all. This is exactly the type of move a team in that position should do, especially if they are never really going to be a player on the FA market for a front line starter. Meyer was in the #30 range on the prospect rankings with potential frontline talent.

 

You knew going in you were giving up a guy with value, but the team was not a few wins from contention. Look at the results with Span:

 

2013 – Span’s 2.6 WAR would have brought us to 68.6 wins.

2014 – Span’s 4.1 WAR would have brought us to 74.1 wins.

2015 – Span’s .8 WAR would have brought us to 83.8 wins.

2016 – Span’s .2 WAR would have brought us to 32.2-55.8 record.

 

So we gave up 8 wins that would not have mattered at all and received back a guy that had a higher ceiling and was going to come up around in 2015 or so. You know, when we were going to be good again.

[wsnydes]

 

I completely agree. It was a terrible article and you don’t have to look too far if you want to throw up a negative Twins article.

I have been as vocal of Terry Ryan as anyone. But I really can’t criticize the Span trade. The guy was under-appreciated here. But we were coming off 63 and 66 wins seasons. His contract was a huge asset. And we had literally no pitching at all. This is exactly the type of move a team in that position should do, especially if they are never really going to be a player on the FA market for a front line starter. Meyer was in the #30 range on the prospect rankings with potential frontline talent.

You knew going in you were giving up a guy with value, but the team was not a few wins from contention. Look at the results with Span:

2013 – Span’s 2.6 WAR would have brought us to 68.6 wins.
2014 – Span’s 4.1 WAR would have brought us to 74.1 wins.
2015 – Span’s .8 WAR would have brought us to 83.8 wins.
2016 – Span’s .2 WAR would have brought us to 32.2-55.8 record.

So we gave up 8 wins that would not have mattered at all and received back a guy that had a higher ceiling and was going to come up around in 2015 or so. You know, when we were going to be good again.

Exactly.  The Span trade needed to be done.  The only reason I was bothered by it is because I liked Span.  Otherwise, I thought it was a good move made with good baseball reasoning.  It's the same reasoning that I have for trading Dozier now.  In order to get this team back on track, trades of popular players has to be on the table because those are the guys that have value.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I completely agree. It was a terrible article and you don’t have to look too far if you want to throw up a negative Twins article.

I have been as vocal of Terry Ryan as anyone. But I really can’t criticize the Span trade. The guy was under-appreciated here. But we were coming off 63 and 66 wins seasons. His contract was a huge asset. And we had literally no pitching at all. This is exactly the type of move a team in that position should do, especially if they are never really going to be a player on the FA market for a front line starter. Meyer was in the #30 range on the prospect rankings with potential frontline talent.

You knew going in you were giving up a guy with value, but the team was not a few wins from contention. Look at the results with Span:

2013 – Span’s 2.6 WAR would have brought us to 68.6 wins.
2014 – Span’s 4.1 WAR would have brought us to 74.1 wins.
2015 – Span’s .8 WAR would have brought us to 83.8 wins.
2016 – Span’s .2 WAR would have brought us to 32.2-55.8 record.

So we gave up 8 wins that would not have mattered at all and received back a guy that had a higher ceiling and was going to come up around in 2015 or so. You know, when we were going to be good again.

 

Except for that whole part where tall pitchers, with one real exception, almost never work out. It was a very high risk trade, of a valuable player.

 

I also hate the thought that "this one player would not have helped win anything anyway".....well, what if they had done a good job signing FA pitchers, and other things. That part of the analysis isn't, imo, all that good.

[wsnydes]

 

I want to say that I still think May is a starter. He gives a different look to his pitches than the rest of current rotation guys. I would really like to see May in the rotation again.

Agreed.  I think he's wasted to a degree in the bullpen.  I didn't like the move to the pen when it happened (even though I understand the why), I didn't like when he was sent back there at the beginning of the season, and I don't like it that it appears they aren't stretching him out now in AAA.  I think he's more valuable as a starter on this team.

[tobi0040]

Except for that whole part where tall pitchers, with one real exception, almost never work out. It was a very high risk trade, of a valuable player.

 

I also hate the thought that "this one player would not have helped win anything anyway".....well, what if they had done a good job signing FA pitchers, and other things. That part of the analysis isn't, imo, all that good.

I don’t know what to make of the pitcher height analysis. It usually starts and stops with only one guy above 6-7 or 6-8 is in the hall of fame. The track record of tall pitchers needs a little more time. CC Sabathia, who is 6-7 commented on that when he came up he towered over everyone and now that has started to change. Another link below indicates the five tallest pitchers in MLB history are Randy and four recent players, Rauch, Hillman, Young, and Hendrickson.

 

But onto Span. I think you have a really hard time, even with the benefit of hindsight via trades and free agency to get the 66 win Twins to a 90 win team within a year or two.

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/top-5-tallest-pitchers-in-mlb-history/article/141776

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12751620/for-major-league-baseball-pitchers-bigger-better

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don’t know what to make of the pitcher height analysis. It usually starts and stops with only one guy above 6-7 or 6-8 is in the hall of fame. The track record of tall pitchers needs a little more time. CC Sabathia, who is 6-7 commented on that when he came up he towered over everyone and now that has started to change. Another link below indicates the five tallest pitchers in MLB history are Randy and four recent players, Rauch, Hillman, Young, and Hendrickson.

But onto Span. I think you have a really hard time, even with the benefit of hindsight via trades and free agency to get the 66 win Twins to a 90 win team within a year or two.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/top-5-tallest-pitchers-in-mlb-history/article/141776

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12751620/for-major-league-baseball-pitchers-bigger-better

 

Over 100 years of history isn't enough time? Hmmmm.

[tobi0040]

Over 100 years of history isn't enough time? Hmmmm.

There is plenty of evidence that indicates humans have gotten taller over time. A few links below. On average, men are 1.65 inches taller than they were in 1912. I would guess that people on the tall end tend to marry taller women and vice versa. So the extremes are probably higher, i.e. the taller tend to have taller children and vice versa.

 

Even in basketball, there was a reason why 7-1 Wilt Chamberlain averaged 50 points and 27 rebounds in 1961. And why very few consider him the best to ever play the game and write off his numbers.

 

I also think that 20, 30 years ago tall people played basketball and weren't pitching. That has likely played a role as well (although this is very hard to prove). So the analysis of pitchers over 6-7 in the hall of fame is a tad early, IMO.

 

 

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=human+height+over+time&view=detailv2&&id=BDAAB2EDC8DCF1F7C4C3AB2AFD870CBB6472C211&selectedIndex=0&ccid=o2qHbmAt&simid=608044147575490407&thid=OIP.Ma36a876e602d7ee622787695d9e2d8f6H0&ajaxhist=0

 

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=human+height+over+time&view=detailv2&&id=0871CC91E4F9D0892750312355107AE34E9E489C&selectedIndex=4&ccid=a1Xo4ENi&simid=608028092995076729&thid=OIP.M6b55e8e04362eafa5791acb2a0473987o0&ajaxhist=0

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not asking for HoF.....nice straw man.

 

bonnes ran the numbers last year.....there aren't any good ones, hardly. None. Even in the time frame of the last 20 years. 

 

Hope all you want, but it's pretty clear, it is really hard to pitch when you are tall.

[Shane Wahl]

Rotation, clearly. 

[tobi0040]

I'm not asking for HoF.....nice straw man.

 

bonnes ran the numbers last year.....there aren't any good ones, hardly. None. Even in the time frame of the last 20 years. 

 

Hope all you want, but it's pretty clear, it is really hard to pitch when you are tall.

I would have hoped that I have built enough credibility here, where you would not think I am creating straw man arguments. The HOF one is a common argument others have used on this topic, including Keith Law. And I am not sure where I ever indicated you said that.

 

Here is a short list.

 

Obviously Randy Johnson was decent.

 

Doug Fister is 6-8 and has a career ERA+ of 117 and a 3.44 ERA.

 

CC is 6-7 and has a career ERA+ of 117, 220 career wins. He will get HOF votes.

 

Dellin Betances is 6-7, he is one of the best relievers in the league.

 

Andrew Miller is 6-7, he is one of the best relievers in the league.

 

Chris Young is 6-10. Career ERA+ of 105 with a few very good seasons.

 

In 2011 SI did an article that showed the 17 tallest pitchers. They had guys that were 6-7 on the list and even had minor leaguers like Van Mil. If each MLB team goes through 20 pitchers a year, that is a population of 600 pitchers in MLB alone. So if we are lining up the tallest 2.8% of any position and include minor leaguers we may struggle to come up with an extensive list of great players.

 

http://www.si.com/mlb/photos/2011/03/11baseballs-tallest-pitchers/17

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would have hoped that I have built enough credibility here, where you would not think I am creating straw man arguments. The HOF one is a common argument others have used on this topic, including Keith Law. And I am not sure where I ever indicated you said that.

Here is a short list.

Obviously Randy Johnson was decent.

Doug Fister is 6-8 and has a career ERA+ of 117 and a 3.44 ERA.

CC is 6-7 and has a career ERA+ of 117, 220 career wins. He will get HOF votes.

Dellin Betances is 6-7, he is one of the best relievers in the league.

Andrew Miller is 6-7, he is one of the best relievers in the league.

Chris Young is 6-10. Career ERA+ of 105 with a few very good seasons.

In 2011 SI did an article that showed the 17 tallest pitchers. They had guys that were 6-7 on the list and even had minor leaguers like Van Mil. If each MLB team goes through 20 pitchers a year, that is a population of 600 pitchers in MLB alone. So if we are lining up the tallest 2.8% of any position and include minor leaguers we may struggle to come up with an extensive list of great players.

http://www.si.com/mlb/photos/2011/03/11baseballs-tallest-pitchers/17

 

Because they get selected out of not being pitchers (or even baseball players at all) in the first place, because it doesn't work well.....Either way, it was a high risk trade, that has returned negative value, in exchange for a good player. It is a fail.

 

The process was fine, but anyone on this board could trade Span for a minor league player, so I don't appreciate (others do, which is fine) the argument that it was a good trade because they traded from excess for something else. That something else has to have value.

[tobi0040]

Because they get selected out of not being pitchers (or even baseball players at all) in the first place, because it doesn't work well.....Either way, it was a high risk trade, that has returned negative value, in exchange for a good player. It is a fail.

 

The process was fine, but anyone on this board could trade Span for a minor league player, so I don't appreciate (others do, which is fine) the argument that it was a good trade because they traded from excess for something else. That something else has to have value.

So your assuming that parents guide their tall children towards basketball based on a detailed analysis of the MLB success rate of tall pitchers? I think the success rate argument is very flawed and you will continue to see pitchers 6-6+ doing well at the same rate. Heck, based on the six pitchers I came up with and the limited sub-set of pitchers deemed "tall", they may already be at the same rate.

 

The trade is exactly what we should have done at the time, IMO. And those are the risks that go along with a rebuild type trade. You give up 8-10 of known WAR when it is not valuable to you for the potential of a 30 WAR+ frontline starter, plus years of additional control. It is a risk/reward trade off.

 

But we should probably just agree to disagree on both topics.

[old nurse]

 

Because they get selected out of not being pitchers (or even baseball players at all) in the first place, because it doesn't work well.....Either way, it was a high risk trade, that has returned negative value, in exchange for a good player. It is a fail.

 

The process was fine, but anyone on this board could trade Span for a minor league player, so I don't appreciate (others do, which is fine) the argument that it was a good trade because they traded from excess for something else. That something else has to have value.

So a player that as recently as last year was rated as the 14th best prospect in minor league baseball has no value?  This despite the trading of the once 43rd  best prospect in baseball drew pages upon pages of howls of protest. The ceiling for Meyer still has not changed. A certain Cubs pitcher really didn't get going until he was 28. Randy Johnson was not dominate until his mid to  late 20's. You can't call the trade a bust yet. You can't say they did not get something of value.

[h2oface]

The Span deal is a bit more bothersome because I really like Span and they've not been able to replace him in the field or at leadoff since. I liked the deal at the time, and I think it still can be a good one. There's only so much that can be done about a guy being injured as much as Meyer has.

This deal is already 4 years to none. It is a horrible deal. Absolutely no value to the Twins in 4 years. These years count, too. Consistent bad luck, at some point, becomes more than just bad luck.

[dbminn]

Keep May in the bullpen this year and prepare him to start in 2017.

[h2oface]

Except for that whole part where tall pitchers, with one real exception, almost never work out. It was a very high risk trade, of a valuable player.

 

I also hate the thought that "this one player would not have helped win anything anyway".....well, what if they had done a good job signing FA pitchers, and other things. That part of the analysis isn't, imo, all that good.

Exactly. There is/was a reason Washington traded Meyer. And Capps. The fleecing of Minnesota. Ouch.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So a player that as recently as last year was rated as the 14th best prospect in minor league baseball has no value?  This despite the trading of the once 43rd  best prospect in baseball drew pages upon pages of howls of protest. The ceiling for Meyer still has not changed. A certain Cubs pitcher really didn't get going until he was 28. Randy Johnson was not dominate until his mid to  late 20's. You can't call the trade a bust yet. You can't say they did not get something of value.

 

It's fair, he still has potential......but so far, not so good.

[tobi0040]

This deal is already 4 years to none. It is a horrible deal. Absolutely no value to the Twins in 4 years. These years count, too. Consistent bad luck, at some point, becomes more than just bad luck.

I am not going to say that the Twins have not been fleeced more than their share. Whether via trade or on the FA market.

 

But a consistent meme here is that we wasted Perkins peak years, closing during meaningless years. If that is the case, Span should have been moved too. A 30th overall prospect is a decent return and he was in A ball. So it was likely going to start 2 or 3 to nothing no matter what

[Fritzderkat]

His health has been an ongoing issue, and to.be seriously considered as a closer, he'd have to improve his control. Times he's been around this year, he's shown the wild pitch.

 

 

[jimbo92107]

Trevor May is in the bullpen only because Terry Ryan wanted to keep the team somewhat respectable with an otherwise crappy pen this season. Now that the Twins are entirely irrelevant, They should immediately move May back to the starting rotation, where he can do the most good for the next several years. It's always easier to find decent relievers than to find decent starters. May could be an innings-eating mid-rotation starter, possibly better.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I am not going to say that the Twins have not been fleeced more than their share. Whether via trade or on the FA market.

But a consistent meme here is that we wasted Perkins peak years, closing during meaningless years. If that is the case, Span should have been moved too. A 30th overall prospect is a decent return and he was in A ball. So it was likely going to start 2 or 3 to nothing no matter what

yeah, I really cannot criticize the Span trade.  We needed pitching, and got a highly respected one.  I htink it's a bit revisionist to go back and say we got fleeced.  Any trade involves risks, especially when trading a known commodity for an unkown.  That's where upside replaces said risk.  Meyer may fail, the trade wasn't bad.

[jimmer]

The Span trade was good in theory and horrible in execution. It's possible to acknowledge the idea was good (and applaud the attempt) and still accept the fact that the guy traded for (Meyer) is almost assuredly a bust and therefore was probably not the right guy to trade for.  Or, at least, it SHOULD be possible.

 

As far as May, May isn't in the rotation because the team decided that he needed to be in the pen.  For the team to feign disappointment that he isn't in the rotation as a permanent member yet is hilarious since it was their decision and their poor roster construction that made it happen.