Article: Player Predictions: DH Byung Ho Park

[Seth Stohs]

In early November, Twins fans were surprised to learn that the team had won the bid and had the exclusive rights to negotiate with Byung Ho Park. Park then helped Korea to the championship of the inaugural Premier12 event. Park homered in the championship game. Soon after, he arrived in Minnesota and signed a four-year deal.

 

It was announced that he will be the Twins primary DH. He won a Gold Glove in the KBO, so he will also get some time at first base for the Twins as well. However, the Twins didn’t watch him in high school and many times over the last decade because of his glove. It was his bat and power potential that caught teams' eyes.

 

He has spent most of the past five years playing for Nexon in the KBO. In that time, he has been the league’s top player. Over the last two years, he has homered 105 times. Each of the past three seasons, he has hit over .300, been on base at least 43% of the time and posted OPS well over 1.000.

 

Park is certainly intriguing. No one should expect him to hit 50 home runs a year in the far-superior MLB. There will be an adjustment for Park and that will make predicting Park’s 2016 really difficult.Parks’ Nexen teammate in 2014, Jung Ho Kang signed with Pittsburgh and spent his rookie season with the Pirates. After a slow start, he played quite well and if not for a late-season injury, he was giving Kris Bryant a run for NL rookie of the year.

 

Let’s take a look at Kang’s transition last year:

 

2014 Nexen (age 27) - .356/.459/.739 (1.198) with 36-2B, 40 HR, 68 BB, 106K

2015 MLB (age 28) - ..287/.355/.461 (.816) with 24-2B, 15 HR, 28 BB, 99 K

Here is Byung Ho Park’s 2015 in Korea:

 

2015 Nexen (age 28) - .343/.436/.714 (1.150) with 35-2B, 53 HR, 78 BB, 161 K

2016 MLB (age 29) - We shall find out.

While the numbers are pretty similar in the two players’ year before moving to MLB, there are some differences. Park had been better for longer. Park walked a bit more, but he struck out significantly more, and therein lies the concern. If it was just about those overall numbers, we could do some basic math and figure that Park would OPS somewhere around .780. But that strikeout rate is certainly more alarming coming into MLB than Kang’s was.

Spring training has shown that Park can perform. He should not be overwhelmed. He hit three home runs, all on fastballs. He took quality at-bats. He drove in runs. He gave reason for optimism, and yet fans need to know that there will be some difficult moments and weeks for Park. Just like any rookie. But I’m more optimistic now that he can make the transition.

 

So, what is in store for him in 2016? Below you’ll find my predictions for Park in 2016.

 

 

KEY NUMBERS

 

29 - Though he is a rookie, and arguably a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2016, he will turn 30 in mid-July. To some extent, he is what he is at this point. He’s actually closer to the end of his prime than the middle of it. However, he is still capable of adjusting, he certainly will have to, and we all hope he will.

 

105... but 303 - Yes, Park was a power hitting star in the KBO, knocking 105 home runs over the last two seasons. However, he also struck out 303 times in that same time frame. His strikeout rate was between 24% and 26% the last couple of years. I would predict that he’ll strike out closer to 30% in his upcoming rookie season.

 

 

PREDICTIONS

 

Byung Ho Park: 471 at-bats, .247/.318/.423 (.741), 23 doubles, 0 triples, 20 home runs.

 

With the transition and the rough times I would expect Park to get a day off each week and maybe two days off in the rougher weeks. Remember that Molitor will want to get Oswaldo Arcia’s bat into the lineup on a somewhat regular basis and DH is a good spot for that.

 

As you can see, I predict him to struggle. I think that .741 OPS will be right around league average, and maybe that’s pretty good for a rookie. My hope, of course, would be that we will see improvement from April to June, from June to August, and so on. He will hit some home runs. I feel like my number might be a little low, and he will hit doubles too.

 

While those numbers might seem disappointing, I do believe that Park is going to be fine, and I think he’s shown enough that over the course of his four (and optionally five) years with the Twins under this contract, he will become a better than average hitter with even more power.

 

 

YOUR TURN

 

Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Byung Ho Park in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

 

 

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

 

Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy

Joe Mauer

Brian Dozier

Trevor Plouffe

Eduardo Escobar

Eddie Rosario

Byron Buxton

Miguel Sano

 

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[Shane Wahl]

No, he will hit. .268/.336/.459 (.795), with 25 homers.

[DocBauer]

I like Shane's numbers. I know it's only ST and SSS and the such, but Park actually performed far better than I expected him to initially to. He has looked not only more than capable, but like he has a plan at the plate.

 

The 1B defense also looked very nice in his SSS. Any official word on his defense at 3B? I mean, if he were needed there in a pinch.

[Eephus]

He will prove he can hit faster fastballs for a few weeks. We'll be excited! Then the pitchers will start mixing it up more and he'll struggle. By mid May we'll be speculating if he should be sent down. Arcia will be factor in all this as he puts up solid numbers in fewer at bats. Park will .go 720 OPS with 17 HRs. He will spend a month in Rochester, but get called back (even though he doesn't seem ready!) when Arcia pulls a bunch of muscles swinging too hard. Park will look pretty good in September and we'll still feel okay with this signing.

 

I hope he rocks the place and has a great year. I really like him.

[Seth Stohs]

I like Shane's numbers much better too, but you all know I'm such a negative guy. Ha!

 

I do think he looks very capable.at the plate and certainly can be just fine at first base. I'm guessing that since we didn't see him even once at 3B, we know how good his defense might be there. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

A fair prediction, Seth. I have no idea what number to put on this guy. I think he could easily hit .700 or .850. He's a complete unknown.

[markos]

Projection Systems:

 

Steamer:
.256 .329 .487 .816

ZIPS:
.266 .333 .463 .796

PECOTA:
.255 .326 .442 .768

 

A lot of uncertainty here. My initial thoughts about Park were very negative:

- Increasing strikeout and decreasing walk rates the past three years

- Overall line last year was buoyed by a .403 BABIP last year (career average ~.320)

- Turning 30 this year, so definitely leaving his prime

 

But as the offseason wore on, there was been a lot more positive news.

- The projection systems all seem positive.

- Dan Farnsworth (scout for Fangraphs) really likes his mechanics and is optimistic.

- He has hit okay this spring.

 

The strikeouts - and lack of walks - have been worrisome this spring, but I'm definitely more optimistic now than I was in December. I think Seth's prediction is pretty close to what I would take. 

[Vanimal46]

Most difficult guy to predict on the team... I'd like to see a platoon between him and Arcia at DH to start, and see who gets hot. 

I'll predict him to hit 15-20 HRs.. 

[tobi0040]

I think doubles and HR could get him to an OPS of .740. But I think that is his ceiling. The k's will make it tough to exceed that.

[Mike Sixel]

No idea? Other than, as usual, I am more optimistic than Seth

 

I do agree his counting stats could be down, as they try to get Arcia going also. But, he's 30......not playing him a lot is just a waste (if he's good, and he will be good).

 

I say 25+ home runs, and an OPS closer to 800, so, I guess I am with Shane.

[Dantes929]

The team OPS was .704 last year with many of the starters in the mid .700's.   Upper .700's from Park would be aces with me.    Man just looking at those stats makes me yearn for a career average year from Mauer.   I still think he has it in him. 

[Tommygun921]

.268/.340/.485 28 2b 26 hr

[Tommygun921]

.268/.340/.485 28 2b 26 hr

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I like Shane's numbers much better too, but you all know I'm such a negative guy. Ha!

 

...

 

That made me laugh out loud.

[OldTimeTwinkie]

While Park was in Arizona getting ready for spring training with the Twins we had a chance to talk with his Korean teams management. We asked them to compare Park and King since they were both on the same team. Consensus was King was the better fielder, being a shortstop but that Park was the better hitter of the two. It was an interesting conversation.

[birddog]

His extra base hits will be big for us fans, but I think the number that produces his successful season will be the RBI's and in ST at least he appears to be clutch. We all hope Shane's numbers are closer than Seth's, but if he has a good rate of producing with RISP we can overlook subpar average or power numbers. Like Kang, I expect Park will start off a bit slow but I don't think he will be sent to AAA at all. If he does go down, I hope it is a result of Arcia's production and not Park's lack thereof.

[Seth Stohs]

 

A fair prediction, Seth. I have no idea what number to put on this guy. I think he could easily hit .700 or .850. He's a complete unknown.

 

I agree. I do feel like I'm a little maybe on the low end, and he absolutely could post an .840 OPS. 

 

Like Buxton, who could post a .640 OPS or an .800 OPS. 

 

I think those are the types of question marks throughout this team, but they're guys that they just need to go with.

 

Joe Mauer could post a .670 OPS or an .800 OPS.

Eddie Rosario could post a .600 OPS or an .800 OPS.

Miguel Sano could post a .750 OPS or a .950 OPS.

Eduardo Escobar could post a .620 OPS or a .750 OPS.

Trevor Plouffe could post a .680 OPS or a .780 OPS.

 

All these guys have to play, and a lot, and how they fit into those ranges will determine how the win-loss record looks at the end of the year.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

While Park was in Arizona getting ready for spring training with the Twins we had a chance to talk with his Korean teams management. We asked them to compare Park and King since they were both on the same team. Consensus was King was the better fielder, being a shortstop but that Park was the better hitter of the two. It was an interesting conversation.

 

I think that's the general thinking, but the high strikeouts in Korea (even compared to Kang) is at least alarming. That's 100% the concern in my mind. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

- The projection systems all seem positive.

I'd be curious what those systems are based on.  There are so few guys coming over here from Korea, I'm not sure these projections are any more meaningful than our guesstimates on this thread.

[gunnarthor]

 

.268/.340/.485 28 2b 26 hr

Yeah, something more in this neighborhood.  He's gonna hit and come in second to Buxton in ROY voting.  

[Doubles]

BH the DH

[DocBauer]

 

I think that's the general thinking, but the high strikeouts in Korea (even compared to Kang) is at least alarming. That's 100% the concern in my mind. 

Not saying it will or won't, could or couldn't make a difference, but didn't I read somewhere in an interview with Park that the players in the Korean league were encouraged to swing the bat?

[h2oface]

With Park in the mix with Sano and Dozier and the rest of the lineup..... this could be a team that certainly sets the new strikeout record for the team, and might be pushing the MLB record before they are done. (Buxton, Plouffe, Rosario that swings at everything, Arcia.....) I certainly hope not, but it sure looks like it on paper.

 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

BH the DH

 

[Loosey]

 

I think that's the general thinking, but the high strikeouts in Korea (even compared to Kang) is at least alarming. That's 100% the concern in my mind. 

If his strikeouts are in the 150-160's range I think he could be a monster.  But if he gets into the rare 200+ range the lack of putting the ball in play will likely negate the plus power from him.

[EddieMatthews]

The Twins have an advantage over last year.  There are more options for Molitor to set up the line-up.  Putting a speedy guy ahead of Park and Sano behind him will improve the pitches that Park faces.  Resting him when he would face a tough pitcher is another option.  

 

I expect Park to have .278 / .355 / .460 and have 25 HR, 85 RBI  and 150 K's in 525 AB.

[birddog]

We would love these numbers.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm bullish on Park right now.  .850 OPS and 30 home runs.  I think our offense will score a lot of runs this year.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I'm more bullish than most. I'm looking at a .280/.390/.590 (.980) line with 25 doubles, 30 home runs and 95 RBI. remember he'll be batting fifth or sixth often – behind Sano and Plouffe, driving them in.

[Brock Beauchamp]

People sure are saying 'bullish' a lot these days.

I'm bearish on this post.