Article: Hicks-Murphy Trade Looking Worse By The Minute

[sane09]

 

Instead, we trade for a guy described as having a ceiling of "competent."

.

"Competent" is a word chosen by another poster who may also be described as "competent".

Murphy was the #4 Yankee prospect in 2014.

He signed for $1.25 million, much more than me, and I know that I am better than "competent".

If you want better than competent, you have to give up more than a CF with a career-BA of .225

[sploorp]

I was a big believer in Hicks.  I still think he has the potential to get it together - though the longer we wait, the less likely that will be.  More than anything, I will miss an outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Hicks.  We didn't get to see that trio too often this season, but when we did is was pretty damn impressive.  Nothing dropped in for a hit.  For that, I feel nothing but remorse.

 

Now, when I think on back on the deal and events over the past season, a couple of things keep popping up in my mind.

 

The Yankees tried to do this trade earlier during the season, but Ryan said no.  After the season, Ryan suddenly had a change of heart and made the trade.

 

Hicks hit a little better before having one stellar month, then finished the season in a slump.

 

Posters throw all kinds of numbers and stats around on here, but the one thing they don't have is unfettered access to the players.  On a daily basis, Ryan and the coaches see the player's approach, their work ethic and attitudes.  In other words, they get to see all the flaws that numbers alone miss.

 

The more I think about this trade, the more I think Ryan was dumping Hicks as much (maybe even more) than he was acquiring a catcher.

 

I think the trade was initially fair for both sides, but will become more lopsided in favor of Ryan and the Twins as time goes by.  Especially, if Hicks doesn't hit right away.  That obnoxious fan base and the New York media circus will eat him alive.

[Linus]

"Competent" is a word chosen by another poster who may also be described as "competent".

Murphy was the #4 Yankee prospect in 2014.

He signed for $1.25 million, much more than me, and I know that I am better than "competent".

If you want better than competent, you have to give up more than a CF with a career-BA of .225

Instead of wasting your talents assessing my posting ability find out how many "damn good" catchers there are out there and how many would be available in any kind of reasonable trade. That would cut to the heart of the matter quickly.

[stringer bell]

Moderator Note: No bickering please. Treat each other with respect.

[sane09]

 

find out how many "damn good" catchers there are out there and how many would be available in any kind of reasonable trade

I don't know how.

Nobody I know is an MLB GM.

I wasn't assessing your posting ability.

I was assessing JR Murphy's ceiling as better than competent, rather than accepting the assessments of the Chief and you.

IMO, all three of our assessments are suspect, compared to that of Joe Girardi and the two GM's.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The whole premise of this thread is dumb.  Neither player has played a single game for their new team, and won't for several months.  How can something get worse, when nothing has happened yet?

 

so, we should not discuss any of their off season moves until the season plays out?

[gunnarthor]

 

I was a big believer in Hicks.  I still think he has the potential to get it together - though the longer we wait, the less likely that will be.  More than anything, I will miss an outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Hicks.  We didn't get to see that trio too often this season, but when we did is was pretty damn impressive.  Nothing dropped in for a hit.  For that, I feel nothing but remorse.

 

Now, when I think on back on the deal and events over the past season, a couple of things keep popping up in my mind.

 

The Yankees tried to do this trade earlier during the season, but Ryan said no.  After the season, Ryan suddenly had a change of heart and made the trade.

 

Hicks hit a little better before having one stellar month, then finished the season in a slump.

 

Posters throw all kinds of numbers and stats around on here, but the one thing they don't have is unfettered access to the players.  On a daily basis, Ryan and the coaches see the player's approach, their work ethic and attitudes.  In other words, they get to see all the flaws that numbers alone miss.

 

The more I think about this trade, the more I think Ryan was dumping Hicks as much (maybe even more) than he was acquiring a catcher.

 

I think the trade was initially fair for both sides, but will become more lopsided in favor of Ryan and the Twins as time goes by.  Especially, if Hicks doesn't hit right away.  That obnoxious fan base and the New York media circus will eat him alive.

I think there might be something to that.  I know I read something about Molitor being a little upset/surprised at Hicks for requesting some days off down the stretch but I can't remember where I read that.  

 

In any event, I certainly don't think it was a horrible trade.

[sane09]

 

"The whole premise of this thread is dumb"

"So, we should not discuss any of their off season moves until the season plays out?"

I think he means that he disagrees with the opinion stated in the headline and the first post. (as do I)

The pros and cons of the trade, on the other hand, are certainly debatable and post-worthy (128 posts so far)!

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think he means that he disagrees with the opinion stated in the headline and the first post. (as do I)

The pros and cons of the trade, on the other hand, are certainly debatable and post-worthy (128 posts so far)!

 

Ah, got it. I agree......the opinion is wrong, I have no issue with the trade, other than they are aiming low again. But, sometimes that's the only target available I guess.

[91TwinsFan]

I know I may be in the minority here, which is alright, I just fear that the Twins traded the wrong outfielder.  I like Rosario, but I think what we saw this year is all he'll ever be.  An erratic guy who hits .270ish and doesn't take walks while swinging at everything.  Is that really better than Aaron Hicks will be?  Yeah it could be, but I like the ability that Hicks has to take walks, work counts, and he showed to be more aggressive this year which I think will ultimately make him better.  I know that I could be totally wrong, but I like his upside better than Rosario's.  Not to mention I think if we would have traded Eddie, we would have been trading higher on him and could have maybe gotten more back in return for him.  Plus, Aaron is a plus centerfielder if Buxton is not ready come April.  Just my thoughts on the outfield situation.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I know I may be in the minority here, which is alright, I just fear that the Twins traded the wrong outfielder.  I like Rosario, but I think what we saw this year is all he'll ever be.  An erratic guy who hits .270ish and doesn't take walks while swinging at everything.  Is that really better than Aaron Hicks will be?  Yeah it could be, but I like the ability that Hicks has to take walks, work counts, and he showed to be more aggressive this year which I think will ultimately make him better.  I know that I could be totally wrong, but I like his upside better than Rosario's.  Not to mention I think if we would have traded Eddie, we would have been trading higher on him and could have maybe gotten more back in return for him.  Plus, Aaron is a plus centerfielder if Buxton is not ready come April.  Just my thoughts on the outfield situation.

 

I doubt you are alone, and it is a well thought out argument. Nice post.

[gunnarthor]

 

I know I may be in the minority here, which is alright, I just fear that the Twins traded the wrong outfielder.  I like Rosario, but I think what we saw this year is all he'll ever be.  An erratic guy who hits .270ish and doesn't take walks while swinging at everything.  Is that really better than Aaron Hicks will be?  Yeah it could be, but I like the ability that Hicks has to take walks, work counts, and he showed to be more aggressive this year which I think will ultimately make him better.  I know that I could be totally wrong, but I like his upside better than Rosario's.  Not to mention I think if we would have traded Eddie, we would have been trading higher on him and could have maybe gotten more back in return for him.  Plus, Aaron is a plus centerfielder if Buxton is not ready come April.  Just my thoughts on the outfield situation.

I think Rosario's the better player, period.  He's a better defender and a much better bet to play a corner OF spot.  Plus, he's a Molitor guy and the Twins soured on Hicks.  And he's cheaper.  

 

Hicks on-base ability was good but it isn't enough absent some improvement elsewhere, which we haven't seen in 3 years.  Now he could turn it around in NY - it's a nice park to hit in - but outside of July last year, he has never shown an ability to hit, especially against RHP.  

 

[USAFChief]

 

I know I may be in the minority here, which is alright, I just fear that the Twins traded the wrong outfielder.  I like Rosario, but I think what we saw this year is all he'll ever be.  An erratic guy who hits .270ish and doesn't take walks while swinging at everything.  Is that really better than Aaron Hicks will be?  Yeah it could be, but I like the ability that Hicks has to take walks, work counts, and he showed to be more aggressive this year which I think will ultimately make him better.  I know that I could be totally wrong, but I like his upside better than Rosario's.  Not to mention I think if we would have traded Eddie, we would have been trading higher on him and could have maybe gotten more back in return for him.  Plus, Aaron is a plus centerfielder if Buxton is not ready come April.  Just my thoughts on the outfield situation.

you're not alone.

[tobi0040]

 

I think Rosario's the better player, period.  He's a better defender and a much better bet to play a corner OF spot.  Plus, he's a Molitor guy and the Twins soured on Hicks.  And he's cheaper.  

 

Hicks on-base ability was good but it isn't enough absent some improvement elsewhere, which we haven't seen in 3 years.  Now he could turn it around in NY - it's a nice park to hit in - but outside of July last year, he has never shown an ability to hit, especially against RHP.  

 

There is always that risk.  But Hicks makes more money and was erratic.  Save a few months this year, he has been pretty bad the last two or three years.  He had a good 2012 in the minors but was up and down there as well.

 

I think Rosario will backup CF and play plus defense in the corner.  If he does that, .270 with 15 HR and 35-40 2B makes a very fine player.

[PseudoSABR]

I just want to make a couple of points.

 

1) Upside isn't a fixed phenomenon.  It is fluid.  Hicks' present upside is probably not considered the same as his upside pre-2013; similar point on Bentacourt.  Once players became exposed, the rosiness of their supposed upside certainly waned.  The reverse point for Murphy, a guy switching position to catcher, who had infrequent playing time at young age - as it became clear that he could be an above average defender and that he wouldn't be a hole with the bat, his upside is probably greater than when he was minor leaguer.

 

2) Upside is ethereal, while a player's floor is concrete.  While betting on a player's floor isn't as sexy as betting on their ceiling; it's certainly risk adverse.  Sometimes it's better to have a known quantity, even if a middle of the road option than it is to bet on former prospect's upsides and end up with no value.  (In my opinion, the Twins sold high on Hicks' one month of glory.  He was unlikely to get much more playing time to further improve (or diminish) his stock.)

 

3) Making deals early in the offseason always invites a hindsight analysis based on what other teams end up doing.  Because we are Twins fans, I think we often refuse to acknowledge just how many other teams fail to address their own needs by waiting the market out.  In terms of catchers this offseason, very few options existed right at the outset, and the Yankees catching excess would surely have been sought after if not by us.  The Twins could easily be without any young catcher at all.  The reality of previous Twins' offseason's would have netted us the likes Tyler Flowers.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

Seems I always hear complaints around here about how the Twins never do anything and wait until everyone else moves.  We make 3 moves in the first week of the offseason and now it's a different set of second guessing.  I really don't know what it will take to appease some.  I'm not 100% sold on the Hicks/Murphy trade but it was probably the best bang for the buck and solves a problem for a fairly long time. 

[USAFChief]

 

  the Hicks/Murphy trade  ...  solves a problem for a fairly long time. 

I hope so.  We'll see.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

People are seriously using a freaking month of Aaron Hicks to suggest he's better than Rosario?

 

For one, Rosario was far less mistake prone as a fielder.  For two, Eddie Rosario's first 400 ABs trounce Hicks.  We're talking about a guy with 45 XBH in 437 PAs, it took Aaron Hicks over 700 PAs to match that.

 

Please, don't cherry pick Rosario's one lacking stat with the one Hicks managed to keep decent (OBP) to make your argument.  It complete ignores basically every other aspect of baseball in which Rosario has demonstrated much more success and a more sustainable future.

[jimmer]

 

Seems I always hear complaints around here about how the Twins never do anything and wait until everyone else moves.  We make 3 moves in the first week of the offseason and now it's a different set of second guessing.  I really don't know what it will take to appease some.  I'm not 100% sold on the Hicks/Murphy trade but it was probably the best bang for the buck and solves a problem for a fairly long time. 

We've had backup catcher covered for quite some times.  Years in fact :-)

[Kwak]

Then...there's the possibility that NY wasn't interested in Rosario...

[sane09]

 

We've had backup catcher covered for quite some times.  Years in fact :-)

This is your version of  "We've had backup catcher covered for quite some times"?

 

Drew Butera*
2008-2013

Eric Fryer*
2012-2015

Chris Herrmann*
2009, 2011-2015

Steve Holm

2011

Jose Morales
 2006-2010

Josmil Pinto*
2012-2015

Rene Rivera*
2011-2012

[jimmer]

 

This is your version of  "We've had backup catcher covered for quite some times"?

 

Drew Butera*
2008-2013

Eric Fryer*
2012-2015

Chris Herrmann*
2009, 2011-2015

Steve Holm

2011

Jose Morales
 2006-2010

Josmil Pinto*
2012-2015

Rene Rivera*
2011-2012

yes, along with Suzuki.  Who should be nothing more than a backup.

[sane09]

yes, along with Suzuki.  Who should be nothing more than a backup.

My bad! I thought you were serious!

[jimmer]

 

My bad! I thought you were serious!

I am serious.  Since Mauer moved, we have been without a quality starting catcher.  Trading for yet another backup catcher doesn't excite me.  We now have three of those and no quality starter.  We have never lacked for backup catchers.  We need a starting caliber catcher.  I would have gotten excited over that.  

Edited December 15, 2015 by jimmer

[Monkeypaws]

Jimmer, it's ironic because the Twins had the golden touch for a while there: Mauer, Pierczinski, Damien Miller, plus they also drafted but failed to sign Hinch and Varitek, and they gave away Ramos.

 

Somebody in the organization had a good sniffer for catchers.

[DaveW]

 

I am serious.  Since Mauer moved, we have been without a quality starting catcher.  Trading for yet another backup catcher doesn't excite me.  We now have three of those and no quality starter.  We have never lacked for backup catchers.  We need a starting caliber catcher.  I would have gotten excited over that.  

Suzuki played perfectly fine in 2014 to be a starter, the problem is 2015 he took a big step back and a 50/50 guy was needed to pair him with IMO.

[jimmer]

 

Suzuki played perfectly fine in 2014 to be a starter, the problem is 2015 he took a big step back and a 50/50 guy was needed to pair him with IMO.

Suzuki had a very good first half in 2014 and then went back to being the same guy he was in 2012 and 2013.  Then he was the same guy in 2015.  He took a step back to who he is as a hitter, not from what he normally is, and he still can't throw people out.

Edited December 15, 2015 by jimmer

[sane09]

I am serious.  Since Mauer moved, we have been without a quality starting catcher.  Trading for yet another backup catcher doesn't excite me.  We now have three of those and no quality starter.  We have never lacked for backup catchers.  We need a starting caliber catcher.  I would have gotten excited over that.

I have no doubt that you aren't excited. That is caused, IMO, because you underrate Murphy, Hicks and Centeno who are all excellent defensively. We will know more later, but until then, your lack of excitement is under your own jurisdiction.

[DocBauer]

FWIW...I like Suzuki quite a bit. But I like him as a gutsy gamer of a guy who gets the respect of his teammates as a quality reserve.

 

I don't know how good Murphy is going to be. I don't think any of us do, but we all hope for at least ML average. (which isn't such a bad thing considering how difficult it seems to be to find a catcher of this quality level as of late) But I imagine a lot of the conversations that have been taking place for young catchers that seem to have the big shine on them start something like: "Let's take a look at your top 10 prospect list..." And unless you feel really, really good about a guy, or he's really proven something, I'm not sure I'd pull a trigger on a move like that either.

 

I also think Rosario is the better overall player than Hicks. He may never be the best OB% or contact guy in the world, but he has the look of a quality AVG hitter, has some good pop and power potential as well as speed and defense. I'm just not convinced, despite improvements last year, that Hicks is going to come close to his original ceiling.

 

But remember, comparing an OF and a C based solely on offensive numbers really isn't a true comparison at all.

[tobi0040]

 

Suzuki had a very good first half in 2014 and then went back to being the same guy he was in 2012 and 2013.  Then he was the same guy in 2015.  He took a step back to who he is as a hitter, not from what he normally is, and he still can't throw people out.

 

And at his age and amount of reps he has gotten with us the last two years, there is really no reason to think he will ever go back to the first half of 2014 guy.