Article: Hicks-Murphy Trade Looking Worse By The Minute

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And at his age and amount of reps he has gotten with us the last two years, there is really no reason to think he will ever go back to the first half of 2014 guy.

Nope. He could be a touch better than he was in 2015 with more rest between games but really, he is who he is.

 

I'm one of the few who didn't think the Suzuki contract was terrible. He was a stopgap catcher when the Twins had literally no depth at the position.

 

But not as a starter. He's a backup.

[tobi0040]

 

Nope. He could be a touch better than he was in 2015 with more rest between games but really, he is who he is.

 

I'm one of the few who didn't think the Suzuki contract was terrible. He was a stopgap catcher when the Twins had literally no depth at the position.

 

But not as a starter. He's a backup.

 

This is a position that we have really  done a poor job with succession planning.  It should have been obvious Mauer would not be catching at 31+, especially after we gave him an 8 year deal.  But we never really saw the first round pick, free agent signing, etc.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This is a position that we have really  done a poor job with succession planning.  It should have been obvious Mauer would not be catching at 31+, especially after we gave him an 8 year deal.  But we never really saw the first round pick, free agent signing, etc.

I think the Twins were banking a bit too hard on Josmil Pinto figuring out his defensive issues. Obviously, that... didn't work out as planned.

 

The Twins were rebuilding. Yeah, it would have been nice to pick up a decent catcher but when the team is winning less than 70 games a season, I'm not sure it matters.

 

Though I question the decision to not pick up more at last year's deadline when it was obvious the Twins were a fringe contender. Picking up Jepsen was nice but a month late. Picking up Cotts was nice but two months late. Failing to address catcher just added to the deadline misery.

[Shane Wahl]

 

I know I may be in the minority here, which is alright, I just fear that the Twins traded the wrong outfielder.  I like Rosario, but I think what we saw this year is all he'll ever be.  An erratic guy who hits .270ish and doesn't take walks while swinging at everything.  Is that really better than Aaron Hicks will be?  Yeah it could be, but I like the ability that Hicks has to take walks, work counts, and he showed to be more aggressive this year which I think will ultimately make him better.  I know that I could be totally wrong, but I like his upside better than Rosario's.  Not to mention I think if we would have traded Eddie, we would have been trading higher on him and could have maybe gotten more back in return for him.  Plus, Aaron is a plus centerfielder if Buxton is not ready come April.  Just my thoughts on the outfield situation.

 

I don't think Rosario is going to fall at all from last season. He is a guy that should get a little better each of the next few seasons. Hicks being traded away was a mistake, though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the Twins were banking a bit too hard on Josmil Pinto figuring out his defensive issues. Obviously, that... didn't work out as planned.

 

The Twins were rebuilding. Yeah, it would have been nice to pick up a decent catcher but when the team is winning less than 70 games a season, I'm not sure it matters.

 

Though I question the decision to not pick up more at last year's deadline when it was obvious the Twins were a fringe contender. Picking up Jepsen was nice but a month late. Picking up Cotts was nice but two months late. Failing to address catcher just added to the deadline misery.

I don't think the Twins were ever banking on Pinto, except perhaps as a potential Mauer time-share partner pre-concussion (a Doumit replacement, if you will).  They left him unprotected as a minor league free agent after 2012, gave him the most meager of looks in 2014, then extended Suzuki basically as soon as they could that season.

 

Those latter two points are critical.  At that point, Mauer was no longer an option, the Twins were rebuilding, yet they didn't invest anything in a viable starting catcher of the future, and in fact delayed any such attempts with their extension commitment to Suzuki.  (At least until now, hopefully, with Murphy.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm one of the few who didn't think the Suzuki contract was terrible. He was a stopgap catcher when the Twins had literally no depth at the position.

 

But not as a starter. He's a backup.

The original Suzuki contract was fine, with Mauer out we needed catching depth.  And even the over-reliance on Suzuki early that season, in the midst of his career year, was defensible too.

 

But the extension was clearly terrible.  Not because it was a financial burden or anything, but because it short-circuited any other attempts to address the position.  Suzuki was the everyday starter down the stretch in 2014, and we made zero attempt to change that going into 2015.  Basically, the commitment to Suzuki put TR in denial about our catcher needs going forward, a denial which took at least a year-plus to undo.

[kab21]

I think people grossly underestimate just how difficult it is to find good catching.  What was Ryan going to do in the last two offseasons to better address the position going forward without selling the farm system?  It isn't denial.

 

[Linus]

I think people grossly underestimate just how difficult it is to find good catching. What was Ryan going to do in the last two offseasons to better address the position going forward without selling the farm system? It isn't denial.

Plus one hundred. I think this applies to other threads as well. I can fully endorse criticism of not improving the bullpen where many options were available but catchers are a completely different story.

[USAFChief]

I think people grossly underestimate just how difficult it is to find good catching.  What was Ryan going to do in the last two offseasons to better address the position going forward without selling the farm system?  It isn't denial.

Off the top of my head, just in the past two years, Norris, Cervelli, Montero, Wellington Castillo, Martin, and Grandal have changed teams.

 

There may be more I'm forgetting.

 

Sure it's difficult. It's not impossible, and it IS what is expected, no? Find good players?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think people grossly underestimate just how difficult it is to find good catching. What was Ryan going to do in the last two offseasons to better address the position going forward without selling the farm system? It isn't denial.

Miguel Montero, Francisco Cervelli, Derek Norris, and Welington Castillo were all available for modest cost in trade last winter. Russell Martin only cost cash and a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick (depending on if we also signed Ervin Santana). AJ was cheap as usual, and Salty was eventually free, neither was a great bet of course but they at least represented an additional bet, which was better than only placing a single bet on Suzuki.

 

All evidence suggests that TR didn't even look at any of these options after he extended Suzuki in July 2014, at least not until July 2015 and perhaps not in earnest until after the 2015 season ended.

[Mike Sixel]

Half the players who were better than Suzuki last year switched teams after Suzuki did.....so, ya, catchers are available every year.

[kab21]

 

Off the top of my head, just in the past two years, Norris, Cervelli, Montero, Wellington Castillo, Martin, and Grandal have changed teams.

There may be more I'm forgetting.

Sure it's difficult. It's not impossible, and it IS what is expected, no? Find good players?

Norris was traded for Jesse Hahn - that is like trading a current value Trevor May or Tyler Duffey

Cervelli had played 110 MLB games in the previous 4 seasons.

Martin got 82M

Grandal was part of the Kemp trade

Castillo was traded midseason

Montero was a good bounceback candidate that had 3/40M left on his contract

 

You actually reinforced my point tbh.

[USAFChief]

Norris was traded for Jesse Hahn - that is like trading a current value Trevor May or Tyler Duffey

Cervelli had played 110 MLB games in the previous 4 seasons.

Martin got 82M

Grandal was part of the Kemp trade

Castillo was traded midseason

Montero was a good bounceback candidate that had 3/40M left on his contract

 

You actually reinforced my point tbh.

Your point is "TR isn't up to the task?"

 

I agree, I guess.

[kab21]

 

Your point is "TR isn't up to the task?"

I agree, I guess.

No, my point is that if you are going to get a good catcher then you are going to pay a stiff price.  You named a half dozen catchers that were all more questionable deals or questionable starters to begin with.

 

Ironically JR Murphy would also be on your list based on how low you set the bar.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Norris was traded for Jesse Hahn - that is like trading a current value Trevor May or Tyler Duffey

Cervelli had played 110 MLB games in the previous 4 seasons.

Martin got 82M

Grandal was part of the Kemp trade

Castillo was traded midseason

Montero was a good bounceback candidate that had 3/40M left on his contract

 

You actually reinforced my point tbh.

So your point is there aren't perfect catchers available for free at all times?  That's true for every position.

 

Cervelli, Montero, Castillo, etc. would have, at minimum, represented competent partners for Suzuki, if not potential starting replacements.  There is no indication the Twins inquired on them, or any catcher, for nearly 12 months after extending Suzuki.  That's a missed opportunity, no?

[tobi0040]

 

So your point is there aren't perfect catchers available for free at all times?  That's true for every position.

 

Cervelli, Montero, Castillo, etc. would have, at minimum, represented competent partners for Suzuki, if not potential starting replacements.  There is no indication the Twins inquired on them, or any catcher, for nearly 12 months after extending Suzuki.  That's a missed opportunity, no?

 

Well we were sitting on top prospect Eric Fryer

[kab21]

 

So your point is there aren't perfect catchers available for free at all times?  That's true for every position.

 

Cervelli, Montero, Castillo, etc. would have, at minimum, represented competent partners for Suzuki, if not potential starting replacements.  There is no indication the Twins inquired on them, or any catcher, for nearly 12 months after extending Suzuki.  That's a missed opportunity, no?

The missed opportunity was getting a Cervelli type backup.  The missed opportunity was not upgrading from Suzuki with a long term answer at the position.  That kind of catcher is really difficult to acquire as shown in these so called missed opportunities.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The missed opportunity was getting a Cervelli type backup. The missed opportunity was not upgrading from Suzuki with a long term answer at the position. That kind of catcher is really difficult to acquire as shown in these so called missed opportunities.

There were starters in that list that didn't cost the farm, doesn't that invalidate your claim?

 

Long term answers meeting your ridiculously high standards are hard to acquire at any position. The threshold here is complement to or potentially better than our incumbent starter, no?

Edited December 17, 2015 by spycake

[sane09]

 

The missed opportunity was getting a Cervelli type backup.......That kind of catcher is really difficult to acquire as shown in these so called missed opportunities.

"Difficult to acquire" and even MORE difficult to forecast. Even the Yankees didn't foresee Cervelli's emergence with the Pirates. Wnen posters compare THEIR hindsight with the Twins' foresight, it is easy to second-guess  the Twins "missed opportunities".

[Otto von Ballpark]

"Difficult to acquire" and even MORE difficult to forecast. Even the Yankees didn't foresee Cervelli's emergence with the Pirates. Wnen posters compare THEIR hindsight with the Twins' foresight, it is easy to second-guess the Twins "missed opportunities".

No hindsight required to see that committing to Suzuki as your only reasonable option at the position for 2015, while other options were changing hands without requiring much talent in return, was probably a mistake.

[jimmer]

 

No hindsight required to see that committing to Suzuki as your only reasonable option at the position for 2015, while other options were changing hands without requiring much talent in return, was probably a mistake.

Suzuki coming back to his normal self might have been the most predictable thing going on with the Twins heading into the 2015 season (that and Hughes doing the same).  One didn't need hindsight to see either coming.

[sane09]

Suzuki coming back to his normal self might have been the most predictable thing going on with the Twins heading into the 2015 season (that and Hughes doing the same).

If you discount the possibility of "IMPROVEMENT", I guess everyone reverts back to their normal self, and you can say it's "predictable". I say, that is bleep.

[sane09]

No hindsight required to see that committing to Suzuki as your only reasonable option at the position for 2015, while other options were changing hands without requiring much talent in return, was probably a mistake.

Unless you can look ahead (or back) and see that Pinto would become concussed and no longer be a reasonable option despite a .964 OPS in 2013. You guys knew all along that would happen, but the Twins failed to sign a Free Agent Psychic.

[jimmer]

 

If you discount the possibility of "IMPROVEMENT", I guess everyone reverts back to their normal self, and you can say it's "predictable". I say, that is bleep.

yeah, I can see how it'd be bleep to think a catcher who is over 30 didn't magically turn it around offensively, especially when he already reverted back to normal in the 2nd half of his possible best season ever at age 30. This isn't a young player we're talking about. You can think it's bleep as much as you want.  Players with a bunch of playing time don't usually maintain a year completely out of his recent normal offensive performance. Regression to the mean is an actual thing.

 

A GM sure as heck shouldn't count on that VAST ONE YEAR improvement to continue and put all his eggs in that basket.

Edited December 17, 2015 by jimmer

[sane09]

yeah, I can see how it'd be bleep to think a catcher who is over 30 didn't magically turn it around offensively, especially when he already reverted back to normal in the 2nd half of his possible best season ever at age 30. This isn't a young player we're talking about. You can think it's bleep as much as you want.  Players with a bunch of playing time don't usually maintain a year completely out of his recent normal offensive performance. Regression to the mean is an actual thing.

Regression to the mean is an actual thing but it is NOT required.

Paul Molitor had the best seasons of his career after he turned 30:

AGE OPS

27 0.484

28 0.764

29 0.765

30 1.003

31 0.836

32 0.818

33 0.807

34 0.888

35 0.851

36 0.911

37 0.927

38 0.772

Regression can be overcome by improving one's game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Unless you can look ahead (or back) and see that Pinto would become concussed and no longer be a reasonable option despite a .964 OPS in 2013. You guys knew all along that would happen, but the Twins failed to sign a Free Agent Psychic.

2013? The Twins made abundantly clear they didn't trust Pinto in 2014, it didn't take hindsight to know he wasn't a viable option for 2015, concussion or not.

 

None of this is a hindsight argument, you can comb the archives and find me and others questioning the early commitment to Suzuki and sitting out the catcher market last winter. Heck, I would have endorsed signing Suzuki for more than 2/12 if necessary, provided we waited to explore other options first. But committing to him as early as we did, with the suspect internal options behind him, and passing on other external options for at least a calendar year after the extension -- it doesn't take hindsight to question that strategy, no. I am surprised this is a controversial point for some.

[jimmer]

Ugh....

[jimmer]

 

2013? The Twins made abundantly clear they didn't trust Pinto in 2014, it didn't take hindsight to know he wasn't a viable option for 2015, concussion or not.

None of this is a hindsight argument, you can comb the archives and find me and others questioning the early commitment to Suzuki and sitting out the catcher market last winter. Heck, I would have endorsed signing Suzuki for more than 2/12 if necessary, provided we waited to explore other options first. But committing to him as early as we did, with the suspect internal options behind him, and passing on other external options for at least a calendar year after the extension -- it doesn't take hindsight to question that strategy, no. I am surprised this is a controversial point for some.

It's only a controversial point if you're trying to find some way to defend the course of action/inaction. A half season of quality offense by 30 year old Suzuki in 2014 that had already turned back to normal in the 2nd half?  It  doesn't take much to see he hadn't turned anything around.  

Edited December 17, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

Regression to the mean is an actual thing but it is NOT required.

Paul Molitor had the best seasons of his career after he turned 30:

 

Sure, a hall of fame hitter in Molitor did it, largely by moving to DH and staying healthy. That's a terrible argument for justifying an early, exclusive commitment to catcher Suzuki last year.

[jimmer]

 

Sure, a hall of fame hitter in Molitor did it, largely by moving to DH and staying healthy. That's a terrible argument for justifying an early, exclusive commitment to catcher Suzuki last year.

Suzuki was just THIS close to becoming a HOFer just like Molitor :-)

 

Just like Meyer will be awesome like HOFer Big Unit because they are both tall and because Unit took awhile to find his groove.  HOFers are always great examples to look for norms.