Article: Chasing An Ace

[Mike Sixel]

Even Ryan mentioned Berrios' size as one reason he wasn't up this year......probably more about stamina than effectiveness, but still.....

[USAFChief]

Arms are probably shorter too......do either of you have evidence that the scouts who believe this are wrong?Remember, it is a rule, not a law. There will be exceptions to rules.

And when the exceptions get too numerous, it's time to question the rule.

[Boom Boom]

Even Ryan mentioned Berrios' size as one reason he wasn't up this year......probably more about stamina than effectiveness, but still.....

I would guess it was more about service time than height. If Berrios pitched exactly the same and was seven feet tall, he still wouldn't have been up.

[Mike Sixel]

And when the exceptions get too numerous, it's time to question the rule.

do you have that list, of the height of all the good pitchers, and think the data shows it isn't true?

[Craig Arko]

 

And when the exceptions get too numerous, it's time to question the rule.

They're not actual rules. They're more like....  guidelines.

[Mike Sixel]

I would guess it was more about service time than height. If Berrios pitched exactly the same and was seven feet tall, he still wouldn't have been up.

Doesn't stop the fact he said it.......that's all I said.

[Willihammer]

 

Arms are probably shorter too......do either of you have evidence that the scouts who believe this are wrong?

Remember, it is a rule, not a law. There will be exceptions to rules.

Why isn't reach ever measured, like for boxers? Or is it measured?

Edited October 21, 2015 by Willihammer

[Craig Arko]

Maverick did okay 'living on Jacks and Queens.'

 

Spend too much time looking for Aces and you'll throw away a lot of winning hands.

[Boom Boom]

http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

 

Not claiming that this is the end-all of the argument, but what research has been done regarding pitchers' height and effectiveness/durability is thoroughly inconclusive.

 

That is to say, there is no statistical evidence that taller pitchers are generally better pitchers.

[USAFChief]

do you have that list, of the height of all the good pitchers, and think the data shows it isn't true?

No, Im too lazy.

 

But off the top of my head, just in RH HOFers in my lifetime, I can think of Pedro Martinez, Tom Seaver, Catfish Hunter, Greg Maddux, and Bob Gibson all 6'1" or less.

 

It's just my opinion, but height would be low on my list of things that are important in a pitcher.

[Mike Sixel]

http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

 

Not claiming that this is the end-all of the argument, but what research has been done regarding pitchers' height and effectiveness/durability is thoroughly inconclusive.

 

That is to say, there is no statistical evidence that taller pitchers are generally better pitchers.

Thanks, this is great.

[nicksaviking]

 

Arms are probably shorter too......do either of you have evidence that the scouts who believe this are wrong?

Remember, it is a rule, not a law. There will be exceptions to rules.

 

Surely height could be an advantage and just like most athletes who don't ride horses for a living, the rule of thumb is the bigger the better.

 

I can't imagine height could ever trump velocity, movement and control though.  I'd have to think that there are plenty of things a shorter pitcher can do to regain the slight disadvantage of losing out on height, like having a longer stride causing a release closer to the plate, having the ability to change arm slots or throwing the ball from an angle that takes longer for the batter to pick up out of the pitchers hand.

[Mike Sixel]

No, Im too lazy.

 

But off the top of my head, just in RH HOFers in my lifetime, I can think of Pedro Martinez, Tom Seaver, Catfish Hunter, Greg Maddux, and Bob Gibson all 6'1" or less.

 

It's just my opinion, but height would be low on my list of things that are important in a pitcher.

Anecdotes really don't do much for me, when we are talking about if a belief is right or wrong. I appreciate you feel otherwise, though.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Maverick did okay 'living on Jacks and Queens.'

 

Spend too much time looking for Aces and you'll throw away a lot of winning hands.

I was trying to find the right card-playing metaphor. I think you nailed it. 

[Mike Sixel]

What I found interesting about the study was that he studied the effectiveness of those that qualified for the ERA title.....I'd think that excludes a pretty big group of players that didn't, and were not effective (but I have no idea if there were any notable height differences).

 

He does address the self fulfilling nature of the data, and also the social pressure of smaller players to play other positions (both selection bias and self fulfilling issues).

 

that was an interesting read, thanks for finding it.

[Mike Sixel]

I remember someone on FG wondering if short pitchers with stuff were a market inefficiency, but I thought that article said there was not enough data. I'll see if I can find it (which the author of this study believes is likely true).

[Mike Sixel]

All of this is a bit off topic......but I found it interesting.

[Willihammer]

Is there really a correlation between pitcher height and effectiveness? I ask because it always seems to come up when projecting Berrios.

 

I get that JO is like four feet tall in heels, but Johan wasn't real tall. And for every Randy Johnson there's a bunch of Mike Pelfreys.

http://imoviequotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/201-Dumb-and-Dumber-quotes.gif

 

http://imoviequotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/202-Dumb-and-Dumber-quotes.gif

 

http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

 

Not claiming that this is the end-all of the argument, but what research has been done regarding pitchers' height and effectiveness/durability is thoroughly inconclusive.

 

That is to say, there is no statistical evidence that taller pitchers are generally better pitchers.

http://imoviequotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/203-Dumb-and-Dumber-quotes.gif

[markos]

 

No, Im too lazy.

But off the top of my head, just in RH HOFers in my lifetime, I can think of Pedro Martinez, Tom Seaver, Catfish Hunter, Greg Maddux, and Bob Gibson all 6'1" or less.

It's just my opinion, but height would be low on my list of things that are important in a pitcher.

 

78 pitchers qualified for the ERA title last year. 56 were 6' 2" or taller. Of the top 10 by ERA+, only 2 (Greinke and Gray) were short. 

 

My own pet theory is that taller pitchers are more likely to be able to generate the "stuff" (velocity, movement, etc) necessary to be a successful major league starter - the population of "short" players is much bigger than the population of tall players, but tall players make the larger portion of successful pitchers. That's probably why height is used as a proxy when drafting HS-ers and signing Latin American players. It is probably less of an distinguishing factor when drafting college players, as they have already gone through several years of winnowing. And once players reach (or are on the cusp of) the major, height doesn't really matter too much.

[ashbury]

 

I remember someone on FG wondering if short pitchers with stuff were a market inefficiency, but I thought that article said there was not enough data.

I thought that's [one place] where market inefficiencies come from.

[Mike Sixel]

I thought that's [one place] where market inefficiencies come from.

That is true, I think his point was there was not enough data for him to know if it would work or not.....but I am sort of working right now, so I can't look effectively.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Here's a fun comparison--

 

Player A--started minor league career at age of 21, 292.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.3 k/9, 3.2 bb/9, .4 HR/9

 

Player B--started minor league career at age of 18, 440.2 IP, 2.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.5 k/9, 2.5 bb/9, .5 HR/9

 

Player A is Sonny Gray, player B is Berrios.  Obviously there's no guarantee that JO will be better than, or even as good as Gray, the comparable minor league numbers sure indicate there's a damn good chance.  Accordingly, I wouldn't trade Berrios for Gray straight up, let along adding Kepler in.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Obviously there's no guarantee that JO will be better than, or even as good as Gray, the comparable minor league numbers sure indicate there's a damn good chance.

I like Berrios, but comparisons of minor league numbers rarely indicate a "damn good chance" of anything.  Too many guys succeed in the minors but struggle in the majors, or post pedestrian numbers in the minors but eventually prove capable of making the adjustments necessary to succeed in MLB.

[scottz]

 

78 pitchers qualified for the ERA title last year. 56 were 6' 2" or taller. Of the top 10 by ERA+, only 2 (Greinke and Gray) were short. 

 

56 (72%) were 6'2 or taller.

22 (28%) were less than 6'2

 

20% of the top 10 were "short".

 

Seems like just about the right mix of tall and short finished in the top 10 based on the total population.

[Boom Boom]

Fun fact- Cy Young was 8'6".

[Craig Arko]

 

Fun fact- Cy Young was 8'6".

Soaking wet.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I like Berrios, but comparisons of minor league numbers rarely indicate a "damn good chance" of anything.  Too many guys succeed in the minors but struggle in the majors, or post pedestrian numbers in the minors but eventually prove capable of making the adjustments necessary to succeed in MLB.

 

Which is why I put in the qualifier to start my conclusion.  MiLB stats are useful and informative, and should be used, even if it is with a grain (or two, or three) of salt.  Otherwise we might as well call Kohl Stewart and Alex Meyer our top pitching prospects, given that they look better in warm-ups.

 

I'm at work, and don't have the time to look it up, but who was the last MiLB pitcher to put up over 400 innings of sub-3 ERA/sub-1.15 WHIP with over 9 k/9 who wasn't at least a decent major leaguer, all while being under 22?

[Platoon]

Make your own ace is the ideal option since their cost is minimal and years are controlled. There's very little evidence of that happening during the TR era other than Johan. Berrios is the next best chance, who has zero MLB experience. I don't think he's going to come up to the MLB and have a 2006 Liriano campaign next season, or even in 2017. So how are the Twins supposed to take this next step to being a 90+ win baseball club next season? Or are we back to building for 2 years from now?

 

Extra years of rebuilding are the cost of leaving your youth in the minors to marinate to a level past what others might. After 4 yrs of 90+ losses, most teams would have started the rebuild in earnest in Nov of 2014. Are we in rebuild mode? I would like to think so. But does the FO? Either way, the question of whether they should sign a $?00,000,000 ace to a ? Yr contract is a moot point. It ain't ever gonna happen.

[DocBauer]

 

Are you arguing that Cueto was somehow instrumental in getting the Royals to the playoffs? He's been more of a negative than a positive since coming over.

 

The Royals made it to the World Series last year without a real "ace." They'll probably do it this year with Cueto struggling. I don't think bringing them up as an example supports the point you're trying to make. 

I like this point made by Nick.

 

I would like the Twins to have an Ace. I think they are downright awesome to have. But I would argue that having one does NOT guarantee you anything in the post season.

 

To me, the primary benefit to said Ace pitcher is during the regular season, taking his turn in the rotation, giving your team a better than average chance to win the game. That better than average chance can be especially nice if it ends a losing streak, or comes near the end of the season with a big series on the line.

 

This can be somewhat negated, however, by having a deep rotation.

 

But in the post season, if everyone needs an Ace to get there, and be there, and win there, then you are pitting your Ace against the other team's Ace, thus negating any benefit or advantage in your favor.

 

See the part about a deep rotation again.

[Thrylos]

I'd like to see Hughes as the closer next season (was lights out in relief with the Yankees) with Perkins, Jepsen, and May as the core.   That would give the Twins a chance to get after Zimmerman (the only worthwhile price/value arm out there)  

 

I'd also love it if they can move Santana to give the kids a chance.   Sorry cannot trust the guy.  Who can tells us that the good start and finish was due to steroids?  Sell high and good riddance.

 

Re:  Berrios

 

. And he's the one pitcher in the mix for the Twins who, in terms of pure stuff, can match up to the top dogs on contending clubs.

 

Not the only one.  Alex Meyer actually has better stuff and higher ceiling.  One bad season.  I'd love to see Berrios and Meyer make the Twins out of Spring Training.  Add Zimmerman, Gibson and Nolasco/Milone/Duffey, and this rotation can be something.

 

But the pen is the biggest problem here...