Should the Twins enter the Greinke Sweepstakes ?

[jimmer]

 

Huh wow thats a pretty signifigant difference in war, almost all his numbers were better this year save a few less innings(and a fair amount of k's(and pitching in the nl, so does that include batting)) I don't think he'll drop off that quick either it just seems like something we all complain about the twins doing(though usually its extending not very good players)

Just a quick look at the numbers, in his CY Young year he had more innings, a better FIP, a better xFIP, more Ks per 9 IP, less HR/9 IP. He managed to do that in the AL and with a BABIP of .303. while this year he had a .229 BABIP.

 

I don't think we ever complain about our team signing a guy like this in FA because we never have :-)

[drock2190]

Lots of dreaming going on in here...

 

Remember this is the Twins

[Craig Arko]

Lots of dreaming going on in here...

 

Remember this is the Twins

[Vanimal46]

There are better odds that one of us TD members will win the lottery than the Twins signing Grienke. He's probably hoping the Yankees or Red Sox create a bidding war but why leave LA? They can pay any price to resign him.

[kab21]

 

Money is definitely a component, probably the largest component.

 

Without doing anything, the Twins' 2016 payroll is around $105m, I think. Greinke is a $25m player. That's $130m of committed money. I think we can all agree that's higher than the Twins will go next season, never mind the other roster holes the team needs to fill.

 

On top of that, the Twins aren't going to just cut a $20m or more contract in Nolasco and/or other guys. That means the Twins have, again, too many pitchers. Roster spots are finite and the Twins are approaching the territory where they have more players they want to keep (notice I didn't say should) than they have roster spots.

 

Combine those two things and we have a situation where Greinke is not coming to the Twins unless they move two of Nolasco, Santana, Hughes, or Milone.

 

If those things happened, I've love to have Greinke on the team.

Then don't say that the Twins are blocked from this move because they have too many #3/4's on the team.  They can get around that.

 

You also overestimate how much the Twins have committed for next year especially if the Twins trade Plouffe and Milone.  They can make this happen without going to 130M.  Realistically though there is 0% chance they go this route.  It just isn't the Twins way.

 

I really don't understand whoever made the comment about Hughes.  He has been a starter for the last 6 years.  His velocity drop was due to something else last season.  As was his lack of K's (3 straight years of 7.5 K/9).  The problem is that nobody seems to know why both of those happened.

[scottz]

I would love to have Greinke. He has been outstanding his entire career, and while it is likely that in the tail end of a long-term (5-year) contract he will fade some, he doesn't rely solely on mph to get hitters out. He is a tremendous *pitcher*. Therefore, I think he will be the exception to the kind of pitcher that really falls off the face of the earth. Just my opinion - please note, it has been over a year since I last stayed at a Holiday Inn Express, so my opinion might be crap.

 

In the real world though, the Twins have no shot at signing Greinke. I'd be surprised if they even called his agent to find out what the target pricetag was. They simply won't spend the money to get it done. They will roll with Santana, Gibson, Milone, Duffey, and Nolasco. Hughes will discover/vocalize the injury in spring training that took a little off his fastball and not pitch for the Twins until after the All-Star break (silly prediction #1). May will be in the bullpen because Nolasco will stay healthy for four starts (silly prediction #2). By the point Nolasco is hurt again, May will stay in the bullpen because by that point, they will call Berrios up (silly prediction #3). Greinke will sign elsewhere and continue to be a wealthy man (solid prediction #1).

 

Man, I feel for Trevor May.

[Platoon]

You may have overlooked solid prediction #1, or silly prediction #3! Mays professed hip problem associated with pitching in the bull pen will flair up again. The Twins will waffle for 14 days trying to decide if a few days rest will improve it. They will then announce they can't play short handed anymore, will put May on the 15 day DL, retroactive of course. They will call up Tonkin, who will pitch that day, and they will then send Tonkin back to Rochester, (unknown to Tonkin his ticket was round trip) and reactivate May!

[Mike Sixel]

I see zero percent this happens. I just don't see them signing an elite FA. When they do, it will be the first time in their history (other than maybe Morris back in the day, he was paid elite money).

 

Should they go get a great pitcher? I would, but then I would have acquired Greinke last time, or Price, or any number of other great pitchers. But, that is not their MO, and I don't think anyone sees that changing.

[Major League Ready]

I see zero percent this happens. I just don't see them signing an elite FA. When they do, it will be the first time in their history (other than maybe Morris back in the day, he was paid elite money).

 

Should they go get a great pitcher? I would, but then I would have acquired Greinke last time, or Price, or any number of other great pitchers. But, that is not their MO, and I don't think anyone sees that changing.

Mike,

 

I keep seeing “but they” won’t do it or it’s not the “Twins Way” but when has any team with the Twins revenue or less every signed an elite FA starting pitcher the likes of Price or Grienke to a 5+ year $100M+ contract.  I suppose it might have happened once but can anyone come up with 2 examples?  Is it really the Twins or is it every team with equal or less revenue? 

 

I use the Cardinals as the exampe of a really well run MLB franchise.  They have a fair amount more revenue than the Twins.  Yet, when have they signed a FA in this mold that was not someone they were resigning?

[Mike Sixel]

I never said it was other teams' way at all. I only commented on the Twins, and it isn't their way. NO PLACE in that entire thread did I say other teams in their situation would/did. Not one time. I have no idea what the point of that post is.

[Major League Ready]

 

I never said it was other teams' way at all. I only commented on the Twins, and it isn't their way. NO PLACE in that entire thread did I say other teams in their situation would/did. Not one time. I have no idea what the point of that post is.

You were not the only one to make these comments.  It would be an extreme rarity that any team of equivalent or lesser financial position to sign an elite FA starting pitcher for the kind of money Grienke or Price will get.  Therefore, it would be logical to conclude all of the other teams with equal or less revenue have determined that it is not a good idea or simply not viable.  It is also often said here that the Twins COULD sign this type of player if they were willing to pony up whatever it takes to get this type of player to come here. 

 

To say it is not the Twins way or the Twins are cheap or whatever other preface is put on this topic is a faulty premise.  It is not the way of any team with equal or lesser revenue which is a very different premise.  Singling out the Twins suggest their reluctance to do this is unique.  The point is that you and others want to criticize the organization for a practice consistent with all of the organizations in the same financial position and some of greater financial capability.   The point is … Do none of the small or mid-market teams understand the risk reward equation, value proposition are whatever description you prefer?  I think it is a little more likely that our bias as fans causes us ignore the fact that this just is not done by mid or small market teams.

[flpmagikat]

 

You were not the only one to make these comments.  It would be an extreme rarity that any team of equivalent or lesser financial position to sign an elite FA starting pitcher for the kind of money Grienke or Price will get.  Therefore, it would be logical to conclude all of the other teams with equal or less revenue have determined that it is not a good idea or simply not viable.  It is also often said here that the Twins COULD sign this type of player if they were willing to pony up whatever it takes to get this type of player to come here. 

 

To say it is not the Twins way or the Twins are cheap or whatever other preface is put on this topic is a faulty premise.  It is not the way of any team with equal or lesser revenue which is a very different premise.  Singling out the Twins suggest their reluctance to do this is unique.  The point is that you and others want to criticize the organization for a practice consistent with all of the organizations in the same financial position and some of greater financial capability.   The point is … Do none of the small or mid-market teams understand the risk reward equation, value proposition are whatever description you prefer?  I think it is a little more likely that our bias as fans causes us ignore the fact that this just is not done by mid or small market teams.

Idk about fa's but seattle and miami both gave huge contracts to their own star players recently. however both those teams are pretty terrible, but not because of those contracts.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess you shouldn't read into a post something I didn't say. I did not criticize the Twins at all in that post. If I want to criticize them, it will be clear that's what I'm doing.

 

I also don't know who has what revenues handy with me, so I don't know if teams signing guys have more or less money than the Twins.

 

If I was the GM, I'd rather have one of Price, Scherzer, Cueto, Greinke, than two Hughes/Nolascos. But that's what I would do, not what I would expect any medium team to do.

 

Like I said, if I am criticizing them, that will be clear in that post.

[howieramone2]

As King Theo always says, there is no such thing as a young free agent. If we make a big move for a starting pitcher, believe we will offer 2 of Berrios, Kepler, or Polanco. In less than 4 years, TR has us playing meaningful September games. I'm guessing his next goals are the winning of a pennant and eliminating our dependence on free agent starting pitching.

[Loosey]

Here is how the conversion would go with Terry Ryan and Greinke's agent.

 

Terry: So what's the starting point to make an offer on Greinke.

Agent: Nothing less than $25M/year.  We can discuss number of years after that.

Terry: *Click*

Agent: Hello?? You still there?

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I think the owner was very clear, he doesn't like long term deals. Not sure that bodes well for signing elite FAs (or for signing their own guys to LT deals).

[Winston Smith]

Save the money so they can sign Harper in a few years.

[Major League Ready]

 

I guess you shouldn't read into a post something I didn't say. I did not criticize the Twins at all in that post. If I want to criticize them, it will be clear that's what I'm doing.

I also don't know who has what revenues handy with me, so I don't know if teams signing guys have more or less money than the Twins.

If I was the GM, I'd rather have one of Price, Scherzer, Cueto, Greinke, than two Hughes/Nolascos. But that's what I would do, not what I would expect any medium team to do.

Like I said, if I am criticizing them, that will be clear in that post.

Mike,

 

I was generalizing.  In other words, several posts went down this path and I was basically saying that there is a common trend to criticize something that no other similar team is doing and make it sound like this is unique to the Twins.   Sorry if it seemed like this was targeted only at your comment. 

 

A few weeks ago the same thing came up when Dave said the Twins should have signed an Ace instead of three guys.  I asked at that time what teams with similar or less revenue had done this.  Dave listed teams but no players which is not specific at all.  So, I went so far as to posted a listed all of the FAs form the last 10 years that could possibly be considered an Ace and asked Dave to tell which players specifically we Ace type pitchers.  No response.  Dave an everyone who insisted that the Twins should do this could not come up wit single (specific) example and here we are again.  

 

I went back and dug this up from a previous thread.  Here are the FAs since 2007. All of them to teams with more and in most cases much more revenue than the twins. 

 

2015
Sherzer ………. Nationals
Lester ………… Cubs Does Lester qualify as an ace?He was very good in 2014 but 2012-2013 he rated 29th in WAR.
Shields ………. Padres---- Is Shields an ace.Shields got 4/74 and Santana was the next highest paid FA pitcher in 2015.

 

2014
Tanaka ………. Yankees
Garza was the 2nd highest paid SP in 2014.$1M more than Nolasco and $2M more than Jimenez.Pretty hard to fault what they did in 2014 when you actually look at the facts.

 

2013
Grienke …….. Dodgers
Sanchez ……. Tigers (resigned with current team so no pertinent to this discussion)I also don’t know that he would have been considered an ace at the time of the signing.E
Edwin Jackson was the next highest paid FA pitcher in 2013

 

2012
CJ Wilson …….Angels    5/77M
Darvish ……….Rangers  6/60M Buehrle ………Marlins   4/58M  

There was obviously some uncertainty about Darvish in the market

I would not think anyone considered Buehrle an ace, especially at 36 forward.

 

2011
Cliff Lee ……..Rangers  5/120M
The next highest paid SP in 2011 was actually a relief pitcher (Soriano (35M)

 

2010
Lackey ……..Angels  5/82.5
Randy Wolfe was the next highest paid SP at 29.75M

 

2009
Sabathia …….Yankees
Burnett ……....Yankees

 

2008
Pettite ………Yankees 1yr 16M.The highest paid SP was actually Silva’s deal with the Mariners @ 4/48M

 

2007
Zito …………..Giants  7/126
Matsuzaka .....  Boston 6/52

[nicksaviking]

Sure. It isn't my money. Let me see...... Greinke ...... or any of the pitchers the Twins have..... yup.... I'll take Greinke.

Yeah, but it's not Greinke OR the other pitchers, it's Greinke AND the other pitchers, and the other pitchers are almost certainly going to be the other aging guys on ugly contracts.

 

Any more signings that are going to encourage keeping May, Duffey and Berrios out of the rotation should be avoided.

[nicksaviking]

 

A few weeks ago the same thing

 

2015

Sherzer ………. Nationals

Lester ………… Cubs Does Lester qualify as an ace?He was very good in 2014 but 2012-2013 he rated 29th in WAR.

Shields ………. Padres---- Is Shields an ace.Shields got 4/74 and Santana was the next highest paid FA pitcher in 2015.

 

2014

Tanaka ………. Yankees

Garza was the 2nd highest paid SP in 2014.$1M more than Nolasco and $2M more than Jimenez.Pretty hard to fault what they did in 2014 when you actually look at the facts.

 

2013

Grienke …….. Dodgers

Sanchez ……. Tigers (resigned with current team so no pertinent to this discussion)I also don’t know that he would have been considered an ace at the time of the signing.E

Edwin Jackson was the next highest paid FA pitcher in 2013

 

2012

CJ Wilson …….Angels    5/77M

Darvish ……….Rangers  6/60M Buehrle ………Marlins   4/58M  

There was obviously some uncertainty about Darvish in the market

I would not think anyone considered Buehrle an ace, especially at 36 forward.

 

2011

Cliff Lee ……..Rangers  5/120M

The next highest paid SP in 2011 was actually a relief pitcher (Soriano (35M)

 

2010

Lackey ……..Angels  5/82.5

Randy Wolfe was the next highest paid SP at 29.75M

 

2009

Sabathia …….Yankees

Burnett ……....Yankees

 

2008

Pettite ………Yankees 1yr 16M.The highest paid SP was actually Silva’s deal with the Mariners @ 4/48M

 

2007

Zito …………..Giants  7/126

Matsuzaka .....  Boston 6/52

Completely out of context of your big market/small market discussion, but forget about the teams, in mass those contracts look horrible. Greinke (the younger version) was good. Scherzer had a good season but is definately still TBD, Lester, Tanaka and Darvish are TBD with giant red flags pointing toward regret.

 

Let's be the team that gets all the financial and statistical benefit from these kinds of guys when they're in their 20's and trade or get comp picks for these types of pitchers when their first contracts wind down instead.

[ashbury]

I also don't know who has what revenues handy with me, so I don't know if teams signing guys have more or less money than the Twins.

A useful link I like to keep bookmarked:

 

http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/

 

Sortable by franchise value, revenue, operating income.

[h2oface]

 

Greinke's WAR this year was 5.9, his Cy Young winning season it was 8.6. Probably his career year.

 

He's averaged 4.5 WAR over the last 3 years.  He's been pretty impressive for awhile, not just this year.  We won't get him, but I'm not sure he's doomed to drop off right away.  

 

 

To me, as good as Grenkie was this year - and arguably quite a bit better than his Cy Young year (as of this date the only one) - and to have his WAR be calculated as worse...... I think it says a lot about how unreliable WAR can be.

[jimmer]

Yeah, I don't think he was better this year than his CY Young year

 

Just a quick look at the numbers, in his CY Young year he had more innings, a better FIP, a better xFIP, more Ks per 9 IP, less HR/9 IP. He managed to do that in the AL and with a BABIP of .303. while this year he had a .229 BABIP.

 

But yeah, his ERA was better this year....

 

To me, as good as Grenkie was this year - and arguably quite a bit better than his Cy Young year (as of this date the only one) - and to have his WAR be calculated as worse...... I think it says a lot about how unreliable WAR can be.

 

[h2oface]

 

Yeah, but it's not Greinke OR the other pitchers, it's Greinke AND the other pitchers, and the other pitchers are almost certainly going to be the other aging guys on ugly contracts.

Any more signings that are going to encourage keeping May, Duffey and Berrios out of the rotation should be avoided.

Please excuse me for the OR/AND semantic. I don't agree that the other pitchers have to be the other aging guys on ugly contracts. It doesn't have to be that way, and if one wants to win with the crop of budding players, to waste time on pitchers that can't keep up is just going to make the time until the new stars will be moving on not as productive for the team. It all depends on whether GM wants to win. It doesn't have to have to mean that May, Duffey, Berrios, and maybe Meyer get shafted because of Nolasco, Milone, Hughes, and whoever else may not be as good. Here's to Pelfrey's future somewhere else.

[h2oface]

 

Yeah, I don't think he was better this year than his CY Young year

 

Just a quick look at the numbers, in his CY Young year he had more innings, a better FIP, a better xFIP, more Ks per 9 IP, less HR/9 IP. He managed to do that in the AL and with a BABIP of .303. while this year he had a .229 BABIP.

 

But yeah, his ERA was better this year.....

 

....and I can't ignore the scoreless innings streak, his won-lost percentage, and over all presence for the Dodgers this year. One can disregard that if they like, as it is trendy to ignore and discount those facts in favor of the new found supposedly more important and representative analysis, but I stand by my opinion. Both were great seasons (and seasons like the Twins only dream of and haven't seen for years in a Twins' uniform), I think we can agree on that.

 

When Greinke opts out of his present contract and becomes a free agent, does that mean the Dodgers can offer him a qualifying offer that he will be forced to refuse? and that giving up a first round pick comes with his signing by another team other than the Dodgers? Or does the opt out mean he doesn't fall into that quagmire? I think it is amazing that Greinke negotiates his own contracts personally, and respect the hell out of that.

[Twinfan & Dad]

When I started this topic I thought that the split would be about 50/50. When you have been burned as of late with signings such as Pelfrey and Nolasco and even with Hughes performance this year and only getting a half season out of Santana why wouldn't Twins Fans be hesitant to spend more on pitching? In my opinion the moves Terry Ryan has tried haven't worked out yet when it comes to the starting rotation. Does this mean he should stop trying and settle for what we have? If the Twins are serious about taking the next step a Number 1 is needed. Give me a guy who every time he takes the ball we could win scoring as few as 2 runs per game is worth the gamble. No things are certain but when you can sign a quality arm like this that may put you over the hump and have him pitch a one game wild card playoff or two times in a series, I say let the dice roll!

[kab21]

 

Completely out of context of your big market/small market discussion, but forget about the teams, in mass those contracts look horrible. Greinke (the younger version) was good. Scherzer had a good season but is definately still TBD, Lester, Tanaka and Darvish are TBD with giant red fags pointing toward regret.

Let's be the team that gets all the financial and statistical benefit from these kinds of guys when they're in their 20's and trade or get comp picks for these types of pitchers when their first contracts wind down instead.

Not really.  The <100M not elite pitcher contracts mostly look horrible but the 100+M contracts did pretty well.

 

I would take the following in hindsight (6 for 6 since CC's 2nd contract was a signed with same team )

Greinke

Scherzer

Darvish - it's around 110M including posting fee - 3 great years and 2 post TJ years left

Tanaka - his elbow is a little iffy but he is awesome when he pitches

Lester

CC 1st contract - yes

CC 2nd contract - no

 

The lesson is that if you are going to spend in FA then you should go after elite players (or close to elite).  Going after the 40-60M FA's is where there is poor value. 

[nicksaviking]

 

 Please excuse me for the OR/AND semantic. I don't agree that the other pitchers have to be the other aging guys on ugly contracts. It doesn't have to be that way, and if one wants to win with the crop of budding players, to waste time on pitchers that can't keep up is just going to make the time until the new stars will be moving on not as productive for the team. It all depends on whether GM wants to win.  It doesn't have to have to mean that May, Duffey, Berrios, and maybe Meyer get shafted because of Nolasco, Milone, Hughes, and whoever else may not be as good. Here's to Pelfrey's future somewhere else.

 

I would be just fine with a rotation of Greinke and four young arms, and in a hypothetical situation, Ryan might be too, but that doesn't change the fact that the other veterans are in the picture. 

 

Armchair GM's like myself would be fine cutting bait on those guys, but Ryan, and likely every other GM just aren't going to do it.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Not really.  The <100M not elite pitcher contracts mostly look horrible but the 100+M contracts did pretty well.

 

I would take the following in hindsight (6 for 6 since CC's 2nd contract was a signed with same team )

Greinke

Scherzer

Darvish - it's around 110M including posting fee - 3 great years and 2 post TJ years left

Tanaka - his elbow is a little iffy but he is awesome when he pitches

Lester

CC 1st contract - yes

CC 2nd contract - no

 

The lesson is that if you are going to spend in FA then you should go after elite players (or close to elite).  Going after the 40-60M FA's is where there is poor value. 

 

I agree in that I'd rather have one elite guy than three such pitchers as the Twins recently signed.

 

But I don't agree with the listed starting pitchers that were a success.  Greinke's first three years were great.  Darvish's were too, but 2015 was lost and now were looking at two post TJ seasons when we won't know when he'll be back, and we won't know if he's effective.  Tanaka is now looking at 5 more seasons with a partially torn UCL and a K/9 that has already dropped over a full point.  Scherzer looked very good, Lester looked OK, but they still have seven and five years left, these guys are way too early to judge.

 

You're right on Sabbatia, his first contract was good, the was second bad.  Just like Greinke's first half of his opt out. 

 

 

[ashbury]

Give me a guy who every time he takes the ball we could win scoring as few as 2 runs per game

Give me one too, but I don't think guys with an ERA of 1.00 are available.