Should the Twins enter the Greinke Sweepstakes ?

[Twinfan & Dad]

Twins fans you want a stud as your number 1 pitcher that will command 25 to 35 million over 5 years even though he is 32 years old this is your guy. After opting out of his current contract I say why not. I am really interested in opinions on this one. We don't have to trade anyone and coming off a season with a 1.66 ERA give me a better option.

[bluechipper]

I think paying for a guy coming off of a career year and who is going to be 32 is probably not a good idea.

[Thrylos]

No.

 

Zimmerman is a much better choice (and even then, the Twins need to find a home for one of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco)

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nope. The Twins have too many pitchers.

 

Find a way to offload Santana and Nolasco. Then I'd love to see Greinke on the team.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Hunter 10.5mm and Pelfrey 5.5mm off the books?

[Winston Smith]

He would be nice but Terry would never spend that kind of money.

[h2oface]

Sure. It isn't my money. Let me see...... Greinke ...... or any of the pitchers the Twins have..... yup.... I'll take Greinke.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hunter 10.5mm and Pelfrey 5.5mm off the books?

Several other guys are getting raises. The real difference is maybe $5-7m, can't remember the exact numbers.

[spinowner]

We're the up and coming team of the next 5 years so I suppose we could ask if he'll take a big discount to sign with us. That's the only way it would be worth it.

[kab21]

 

Nope. The Twins have too many pitchers.

 

I am sorry but this is invalid logic.  The #1 problem facing the Twins for the next 5 years is finding an ace.  Passing on one because the Twins have too many #3/4 starters isn't a reason.  Passing on one because he is 32 and is going to make 25+M/yr for at least 6 years is arguable.

 

At some point the Twins might have to bite the bullet and pay the price for an ace.  Cole Hamels got a lot of talk at midseason but he would have cost Berrios and 2 other really good prospects (if not Buxton) and the board hated it because he was 32 (or something) and signed for 4 years.  Sonny Gray for Berrios/Kepler got mentioned as a hypothetical and many hated it (many were also fine with it) because at age 25 he hadn't put up dominant peripherals.  Now a straight up FA gets mentioned and doesn't cost the precious prospects but people still hate it.

 

I also prefer Jordan Zimmerman but he won't come cheap either.  And this would be a really rare Twins move.  If they did this (any top FA starter) then I am okay with Plouffe, Milone and Gibson (arb 1) being traded and saving the team 12-15M next season and more the following season.  I doubt that Santana would be easy to move and there is a chance that he is better than Gibson for the next 2 years.  But it is possible to find the money to make it work.

 

There is of course zero % chance that this is even considered though.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I am sorry but this is invalid logic.  The #1 problem facing the Twins for the next 5 years is finding an ace.  Passing on one because the Twins have too many #3/4 starters isn't a reason.  Passing on one because he is 32 and is going to make 25+M/yr for at least 6 years is arguable.

 

At some point the Twins might have to bite the bullet and pay the price for an ace.  Cole Hamels got a lot of talk at midseason but he would have cost Berrios and 2 other really good prospects (if not Buxton) and the board hated it because he was 32 (or something) and signed for 4 years.  Sonny Gray for Berrios/Kepler got mentioned as a hypothetical and many hated it (many were also fine with it) because at age 25 he hadn't put up dominant peripherals.  Now a straight up FA gets mentioned and doesn't cost the precious prospects but people still hate it.

 

I also prefer Jordan Zimmerman but he won't come cheap either.  And this would be a really rare Twins move.  If they did this (any top FA starter) then I am okay with Plouffe, Milone and Gibson (arb 1) being traded and saving the team 12-15M next season and more the following season.  I doubt that Santana would be easy to move and there is a chance that he is better than Gibson for the next 2 years.  But it is possible to find the money to make it work.

 

There is of course zero % chance that this is even considered though.

Yeah, I'm gonna throw the "invalid argument" flag at you, too

 

There is no way, no how, any agent or star-quality player would ever sign long term contract with a team that is still trying to rebuild [ 4 games over .500, 2nd place, 12 games behind the the Royals ].

This team has issues and the biggest is a starting staff overloaded of fairly middling personnel at a pretty high cost and excessive number of years.

 

Right now, the Twins are a team no high value player will sign with.  Unless, of course, they get lucky like the Packers and get a chance to sign a guy like Reggie White.  Then again, they also had a guy named Brett Farve.

[Willihammer]

 

There is no way, no how, any agent or star-quality player would ever sign long term contract with a team that is still trying to rebuild [ 4 games over .500, 2nd place, 12 games behind the the Royals ].

"I could play for the worst team if they paid the most." -Zach Greinke

[Willihammer]

Some NL team will pony up for him I think because his bat plays so well for a pitcher.

[DaveW]

Cueto is a better choice.

[DaveW]

I am sorry but this is invalid logic. The #1 problem facing the Twins for the next 5 years is finding an ace. Passing on one because the Twins have too many #3/4 starters isn't a reason. Passing on one because he is 32 and is going to make 25+M/yr for at least 6 years is arguable.

 

At some point the Twins might have to bite the bullet and pay the price for an ace. Cole Hamels got a lot of talk at midseason but he would have cost Berrios and 2 other really good prospects (if not Buxton) and the board hated it because he was 32 (or something) and signed for 4 years. Sonny Gray for Berrios/Kepler got mentioned as a hypothetical and many hated it (many were also fine with it) because at age 25 he hadn't put up dominant peripherals. Now a straight up FA gets mentioned and doesn't cost the precious prospects but people still hate it.

 

I also prefer Jordan Zimmerman but he won't come cheap either. And this would be a really rare Twins move. If they did this (any top FA starter) then I am okay with Plouffe, Milone and Gibson (arb 1) being traded and saving the team 12-15M next season and more the following season. I doubt that Santana would be easy to move and there is a chance that he is better than Gibson for the next 2 years. But it is possible to find the money to make it work.

 

There is of course zero % chance that this is even considered though.

Thank you!

 

The only team that could seriously say "we have enough pitching already" is the Mets. And that's it,

[kab21]

 

Yeah, I'm gonna throw the "invalid argument" flag at you, too

 

There is no way, no how, any agent or star-quality player would ever sign long term contract with a team that is still trying to rebuild [ 4 games over .500, 2nd place, 12 games behind the the Royals ].

This team has issues and the biggest is a starting staff overloaded of fairly middling personnel at a pretty high cost and excessive number of years.

 

Right now, the Twins are a team no high value player will sign with.  Unless, of course, they get lucky like the Packers and get a chance to sign a guy like Reggie White.  Then again, they also had a guy named Brett Farve.

I said nothing about it being easy or possible to sign a top FA.  The FO likely won't even consider it but Brock's argument was that the Twins shouldn't do it because the Twins have 5-6 #3/4 starters.  I completely disagree with that reasoning.  There are other reasons (like you state) but that shouldn't be one of them.

 

 

[Twinfan & Dad]

If the Twins are serious about taking the next step you have to have a number 1 pitcher. Now how you get this person ideally is through your farm system but I just don't see that person ready to stake his claim. I see Berrios and Duffy ready to contribute but not as that 1 guy. Lets see if Ryan can get creative and move a contract such as Hughes or Nolasco to free up space. I think Santana has shown he can be a solid 2 or 3 guy and add our young guys to the mix we have the start to a solid rotation. The Cubs have shown us that a rotation can be rebuilt quickly.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I never said the Twins have enough pitching. I said they have too many pitchers. There's a difference between those two statements.

 

The reality of the situation is the Twins need to offload arms and money before they can acquire another expensive arm. Call it invalid logic or whatever you please but that's the reality of the situation.

[kab21]

 

I never said the Twins have enough pitching. I said they have too many pitchers. There's a difference between those two statements.

The reality of the situation is the Twins need to offload arms and money before they can acquire another expensive arm. Call it invalid logic or whatever you please but that's the reality of the situation.

Too many arms should not be the reason that the Twins don't try to add an ace.  This is the absolute #1 need that the Twins have going forward.

 

There are many reasons to not add a FA like money (what you actually might mean), age, risk, length of contract, the improbability that one would sign, or anything else but too many #3/4 starters is not one.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Too many arms should not be the reason that the Twins don't try to add an ace.  This is the absolute #1 need that the Twins have going forward.

 

There are many reasons to not add a FA like money (what you actually might mean), age, risk, length of contract, the improbability that one would sign, or anything else but too many #3/4 starters is not one.

Money is definitely a component, probably the largest component.

 

Without doing anything, the Twins' 2016 payroll is around $105m, I think. Greinke is a $25m player. That's $130m of committed money. I think we can all agree that's higher than the Twins will go next season, never mind the other roster holes the team needs to fill.

 

On top of that, the Twins aren't going to just cut a $20m or more contract in Nolasco and/or other guys. That means the Twins have, again, too many pitchers. Roster spots are finite and the Twins are approaching the territory where they have more players they want to keep (notice I didn't say should) than they have roster spots.

 

Combine those two things and we have a situation where Greinke is not coming to the Twins unless they move two of Nolasco, Santana, Hughes, or Milone.

 

If those things happened, I've love to have Greinke on the team.

[USAFChief]

Money is definitely a component, probably the largest component.

 

Without doing anything, the Twins' 2016 payroll is around $105m, I think. Greinke is a $25m player. That's $130m of committed money. I think we can all agree that's higher than the Twins will go next season, never mind the other roster holes the team needs to fill.

 

On top of that, the Twins aren't going to just cut a $20m or more contract in Nolasco and/or other guys. That means the Twins have, again, too many pitchers. Roster spots are finite and the Twins are approaching the territory where they have more players they want to keep (notice I didn't say should) than they have roster spots.

 

Combine those two things and we have a situation where Greinke is not coming to the Twins unless they move two of Nolasco, Santana, Hughes, or Milone.

 

If those things happened, I've love to have Greinke on the team.

I agree the Twins won't go to $130m. However, I see no reason they couldn't.

[jimbo92107]

 

There is no way, no how, any agent or star-quality player would ever sign long term contract with a team that is still trying to rebuild [ 4 games over .500, 2nd place, 12 games behind the the Royals ].

This team has issues and the biggest is a starting staff overloaded of fairly middling personnel at a pretty high cost and excessive number of years.

 

Right now, the Twins are a team no high value player will sign with.  Unless, of course, they get lucky like the Packers and get a chance to sign a guy like Reggie White.  Then again, they also had a guy named Brett Farve.

The 2016 Twins will have a chance to shock the baseball world, but they can do it only if they put Hughes, Milone and Nolasco in the bullpen, while starting Santana, Berrios, Gibson, May, and Duffey. This combination gives the team an optimal blend of EIGHT starting pitchers, three of whom can pull major innings as middle relievers while providing spot starts as needed. Santana, Gibson and Duffey look ready to post nearly 200 innings apiece, while Berrios and May could approach that same level of durability. 

 

The key to this strategy is recognizing where Phil Hughes is in his career. As a starter he has lost the zip on his heater that allowed him to dominate for more than a few innings. However, in the pen Hughes could see the proverbial 2 to 3mph uptick in fastball velocity, which would reestablish his dominance. More, Hughes has the mentality and stuff to be an effective closer, a position that is now in serious doubt as Glenn Perkins declines physically. 

 

Much of this depends who emerges from the minors next spring as viable relievers. Most of the current pen is underwhelming at best. I'd like to see a few flame throwers like Burdy, Reed and Meyer emerge, but of course they have to prove they have decent command. JR Graham needs to go to AAA to work on being a starter. Point is, the Twins are in a position to have a remarkably effective heart of a relief staff if they use their expensive free agents where they can best help the team win over a 162-game season. 

[Kwak]

He won't even be pursued.  Pohlad already stated "$120MM... after pay raises.." plus "...[i don't like] long-term contracts...".  That interview excludes the addition of a Grienke, not to mention Grienke's personal preferences (maybe he fancies LA?).  The thread makes grist for the posting mill, but little else.

[Winston Smith]

I think if I was spending the money (and the Pohlads have plenty of money) I'd go for Price instead. A couple years younger, left handed and has always played in the AL.

[HitInAPinch]

 

The 2016 Twins will have a chance to shock the baseball world, but they can do it only if they put Hughes, Milone and Nolasco in the bullpen, while starting Santana, Berrios, Gibson, May, and Duffey. This combination gives the team an optimal blend of EIGHT starting pitchers, three of whom can pull major innings as middle relievers while providing spot starts as needed. Santana, Gibson and Duffey look ready to post nearly 200 innings apiece, while Berrios and May could approach that same level of durability. 

 

The key to this strategy is recognizing where Phil Hughes is in his career. As a starter he has lost the zip on his heater that allowed him to dominate for more than a few innings. However, in the pen Hughes could see the proverbial 2 to 3mph uptick in fastball velocity, which would reestablish his dominance. More, Hughes has the mentality and stuff to be an effective closer, a position that is now in serious doubt as Glenn Perkins declines physically. 

 

Much of this depends who emerges from the minors next spring as viable relievers. Most of the current pen is underwhelming at best. I'd like to see a few flame throwers like Burdy, Reed and Meyer emerge, but of course they have to prove they have decent command. JR Graham needs to go to AAA to work on being a starter. Point is, the Twins are in a position to have a remarkably effective heart of a relief staff if they use their expensive free agents where they can best help the team win over a 162-game season. 

 

Whew, Hughes, Milone and Nolasco in the bullpen is one stinky bullpen.

[Shaitan]

 

"I could play for the worst team if they paid the most." -Zach Greinke

Grienke has professed respect for the Twins multiple times over the years.

 

Still, I don't see it happening. I won't complain if it does, but I think signing pitchers to long term deals is basically throwing money away in the end. It's a long term commitment where only the few 1-3 years tends to actually pay off.

 

(But I don't write the checks. Why should I complain if they're throwing money away.)

[flpmagikat]

Honestly as good as he is I just can't believe everyone thinks giving a 5-6 year deal to a 32 year old coming off a career best season would be a good idea. Nope.

[jimmer]

Greinke's WAR this year was 5.9, his Cy Young winning season it was 8.6. Probably his career year.

 

He's averaged 4.5 WAR over the last 3 years.  He's been pretty impressive for awhile, not just this year.  We won't get him, but I'm not sure he's doomed to drop off right away.  

 

So many people see a guy 31, 32 and say avoid them.  That's a huge chunk of FAs.

 

Anyway, this is a fun read, but there's no way Ryan gets Greinke, nor does he even make much of an effort, if any.

[flpmagikat]

 

Greinke's WAR this year was 5.9, his Cy Young winning season it was 8.6. Probably his career year.

 

He's averaged 4.5 WAR over the last 3 years.  He's been pretty impressive for awhile, not just this year.  We won't get him, but I'm not sure he's doomed to drop off right away.  

 

So many people see a guy 31, 32 and say avoid them.  That's a huge chunk of FAs.

 

Anyway, this is a fun read, but there's no way Ryan gets Greinke, nor does he even make much of an effort, if any.

Huh wow thats a pretty signifigant difference in war, almost all his numbers were better this year save a few less innings(and a fair amount of k's(and pitching in the nl, so does that include batting)) I don't think he'll drop off that quick either it just seems like something we all complain about the twins doing(though usually its extending not very good players)

[Don Walcott]

Greinke, Price, Cueto or Zimmerman.  Let's get one of them and make a real push to contend and go far in the playoffs over the next few years.  If you replace about 200 innings of our current pitchers with 200 innings from one of these four, our team will give up a lot less runs. 

 

If you have a #1, plus Santana and Gibson pitching around 200 innings, then get 150-180 from Berrios and Duffey (giving them periodic rests for a start or two during the season), you also save the bullpen so the bullpen will be more effective.

 

I like May in the bullpen.  I like Hughes in the bullpen.  I think Milone can take over for Duensing in the bullpen.  I think Nolasco can be a long reliever, who can be prepared to start if someone needs a rest or gets hurt.

 

I also think the Twins have money to spend, and doing so without giving up prospects sounds good to me.  Also, you have to spend money to make money.  Think of the attendance and merchandising uptick from one of these guys, especially if we are in a pennant race all season, and even moreso if we're in the playoffs.  That will pay for the contract.

 

I can't stand the idea of Nolasco having a spot in the rotation.  I don't think anyone's trading anything for him.  You couldn't give him and his contract away.  But maybe he has a comeback season in him, and can be useful as a backup option in case someone gets hurt.

 

How about this for a pitching staff:

 

1 Greinke, Price, Cueto or Zimmerman

2 Santana

3 Gibson

4 Duffey

5 Berrios

 

Middle relievers: Milone, Nolasco.

Relievers: Cotts, Jepsen, (Boyer, Fien, Meyer?)

7th-9th inning: May, Hughes, Perkins

 

That's from just adding one guy at the top of the rotation.

 

Do you think Molitor would have a problem with having too many pitchers?