What does a Plouffe extension look like?

[RJM96]

If they so choose to extend him.....

[Seth Stohs]

Two more years of arbitration, so a deal would need to be 3-4 years...In arbitration, he's making $4.8 million this year. If he goes through the process again this offseason, he'll probably make about $7.5 million... Then $10 million. Then a free agent.

 

So, to me, a deal would need to be about 3 years, $25-28 million for it to be worth it for the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think he signs for less than 4-5 years, $35MM+

[Shane Wahl]

It would be a pretty bad mistake to extend him. He is going to be 30 next year and the decline might already be occurring.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It would be a pretty bad mistake to extend him. He is going to be 30 next year and the decline might already be occurring.

 

Was that the question the OP wanted to discuss?

[Kwak]

I think it involves a rack.

[matthew0211]

My guess: five years, $54mm

 

2016, Arb 3, $6.5mm

2017, Arb 4, $8.5mm

2018-20, FA, $13mm/yr

 

There aren't a lot of good comps for him out there.

[tobi0040]

The deal would probably land at 3-27 or 4-39.  

 

I think he is at maximum value right now and giving him this deal or keeping him another year erodes that. If we think it is a high probability of Sano sticking at 3B during this stretch (3-4 years), then I think Plouffe is moved.

 

 That is my base case right now, a trade this off-season.

[Badsmerf]

A Plouffe extension looks like a deal with another club. I really don't see any way he is with the Twins next season. Between him, Sano, Mauer, Vargas, Kepler, Arcia..... he has the most value to other teams. Unless Mauer is moved, I don't see how playing time would be adequate for all. 

 

I'd prefer he be kept at 3b and Sano at 1b, but it will never happen. 

[Major League Ready]

 

My guess: five years, $54mm

2016, Arb 3, $6.5mm
2017, Arb 4, $8.5mm
2018-20, FA, $13mm/yr

There aren't a lot of good comps for him out there.

 

 

My guess: five years, $54mm

2016, Arb 3, $6.5mm
2017, Arb 4, $8.5mm
2018-20, FA, $13mm/yr

There aren't a lot of good comps for him out there.

What about Sandoval?  Same age and fairly similar stats.  He got 5/95M

[Danchat]

Yikes. I never realized that he's 29 right now. They grow up so fast...

[Mike Sixel]

 

What about Sandoval?  Same age and fairly similar stats.  He got 5/95M

 

Huh, ya, well, no way I'd sign Plouffe for that, not with Sano and Mauer on the team.....

 

I do agree, an extension looks a lot like something that appears on another team's paper.....

[TheLeviathan]

Hopefully non-existent.

[twinsnorth49]

A Plouffe extension looks like a deal with another club. I really don't see any way he is with the Twins next season. Between him, Sano, Mauer, Vargas, Kepler, Arcia..... he has the most value to other teams. Unless Mauer is moved, I don't see how playing time would be adequate for all.

 

I'd prefer he be kept at 3b and Sano at 1b, but it will never happen.

Pretty much exactly this.

[SwainZag]

 

What about Sandoval?  Same age and fairly similar stats.  He got 5/95M

 

Sandoval hit free agency when he was 27 and had career numbers of .294/.346/.465 with an OPS of .811 and 5 full seasons of having OPS+ of 110+.

 

Trevor will be 29 this offseason with 2 years of team control and has career numbers of .244/.307/.418 with an OPS of .725 and 1 season of having an OPS+ of 110+.

 

I'm not sure in which world are they that similiar. Before this year Sandoval was seemingly a fairly competent defender as well.  

[lukeduke1980]

After last night I'd say 6 For 3 

[bluechipper]

Hopefully it would include some sort of penalty for every GIDP.

[Major League Ready]

 

Sandoval hit free agency when he was 27 and had career numbers of .294/.346/.465 with an OPS of .811 and 5 full seasons of having OPS+ of 110+.

 

Trevor will be 29 this offseason with 2 years of team control and has career numbers of .244/.307/.418 with an OPS of .725 and 1 season of having an OPS+ of 110+.

 

I'm not sure in which world are they that similiar. Before this year Sandoval was seemingly a fairly competent defender as well.  

I think it is a simplistic view to look at career stats.  For starters, what happened 5 years before free agency does not matter as much as last year and/or the last 2-3 years.  You also need to consider Sandoval’s body type (5-11/250)  is more probable to experience early decline, especially defensively.   Then there is also the fact that Plouffe has improved his play on the defensive side of the ball substantially the past couple years.

Sandoval’s OPS the last 3 years before free agency was below his career average and it was on the decline for 3 yrs prior to free agency.  He also went from 23 HRs in 2011 to 12/14 & 15 in 2012-2014.  Therefore, the projected OPS for Sandoval going forward would have been similar to Plouffe and Plouffe is less of a candidate for decline than Sandoval based on body type.   

 

               OPS HR
2011       .909      23
2012      .789           12
2013      .758         14
2014      .739         16

[diehardtwinsfan]

Don't forget the name factor, Sandoval has one.  People pay extra for that.  Just look at all the trade speculation here over a guy like Jose Reyes.  People want him, because of what he was not what he is. 

 

Plouffe is a bit more unrecognized around the league. 

 

I'll echo what others have said, I think Plouffe is an offseason trade candidate.  Let another team deal with the extension.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I believe I'm one of the few on the board who is fine with keeping Plouffe for awhile and letting him walk.

 

I'm also fine with trading him if the Twins feel Sano can handle third every day.

 

So... No extension.

[tobi0040]

 

I believe I'm one of the few on the board who is fine with keeping Plouffe for awhile and letting him walk.

I'm also fine with trading him if the Twins feel Sano can handle third every day.

So... No extension.

 

Agreed.  I would keep him around if we did not get a good piece back.

 

The only caveat I would add here is that it would be pretty pointless to keep him around IF we are going to give Mauer 80%+ of the reps at 1B and play Sano primarily at 3B.   Now Plouffe is our DH or playing in the OF?  I don't see a ton of value there.

[Halsey Hall]

If Ploof has proven anything this year, it's that he is really, really slow. He's gotten slower as the year has gone on, not only running but in the field. Nunez made a great play last night that Ploof couldn't have.  And leading baseball in gidp's?  Any extension has flown out the window.  Get back what we can for him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If Ploof has proven anything this year, it's that he is really, really slow. He's gotten slower as the year has gone on, not only running but in the field. Nunez made a great play last night that Ploof couldn't have.  And leading baseball in gidp's?

Anecdotal defensive plays and GIDP are not valid reasons to get rid of a player.

 

Plouffe has been a decent regular this season, just as he was a solid regular the past two seasons. He hasn't fallen off a cliff and is still a decent player... Just like he has been for the past ~1500 PAs.

[nicksaviking]

 

I believe I'm one of the few on the board who is fine with keeping Plouffe for awhile and letting him walk.

I'm also fine with trading him if the Twins feel Sano can handle third every day.

So... No extension.

 

My preferrence is your first two sentances in the opposite order as I think three years of not playing 3B will probably doom Sano to DH for life.  Maybe he should, but I'd like to find out if he can play the field, even at the expense of a usable player like Plouffe.

 

The Twins haven't had an honest to goodness viable trade piece since Span and Revere left town.  Though to be fair, I probably like speculating about trades more than the trades themselves.  I put that on my resume too and it's probably the reason I still haven't landed a GM job.

[nicksaviking]

 

If Ploof has proven anything this year, it's that he is really, really slow. He's gotten slower as the year has gone on, not only running but in the field. Nunez made a great play last night that Ploof couldn't have.  And leading baseball in gidp's?  Any extension has flown out the window.  Get back what we can for him.

 

I also don't like his very poor OBP for a guy who is supposed to bat in the middle of the order.  I don't think that gets brought up enough.

[Brock Beauchamp]

My preferrence is your first two sentances in the opposite order as I think three years of not playing 3B will probably doom Sano to DH for life. Maybe he should, but I'd like to find out if he can play the field, even at the expense of a usable player like Plouffe.

 

The Twins haven't had an honest to goodness viable trade piece since Span and Revere left town. Though to be fair, I probably like speculating about trades more than the trades themselves. I put that on my resume too and it's probably the reason I still haven't landed a GM job.

I'd also like to see Sano at third but I have no idea if he can play there every day so I can't say for certain that a Plouffe trade is the right decision.

 

If the Twins trust Sano at third in 2016, absolutely trade Trevor.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'd also like to see Sano at third but I have no idea if he can play there every day so I can't say for certain that a Plouffe trade is the right decision.

If the Twins trust Sano at third in 2016, absolutely trade Trevor.

I was really hoping to see him at 3B too but the people who make that decision should have a good idea if he can play 3rd by now.  Of course, there is always a chance they end up being wrong.  It happens.  I am inclined to go along with other posters who have suggested we need to give Sano that chance not even if it requires we sacrifice Plouffe in the process.   

 

It would become a no brainer for me if the trade yields a ML ready or near ML ready catcher but I would not restrict trading Plouffe to a getting a catcher as long as the return was solid.

[howieramone2]

Molly said Sano will play little or no 3B the rest of the season after the game. Earliest we would know if Sano can play 3B at the major league level is right around the trade deadline. Trading Sano before we find out if he is at least an average 3B risks taking a step backwards, which I can't see Ryan doing. As trade chips, Hicks and May are probably edging towards their peak value.

[LaBombo]

 

Molly said Sano will play little or no 3B the rest of the season after the game. Earliest we would know if Sano can play 3B at the major league level is right around the trade deadline. Trading Sano before we find out if he is at least an average 3B risks taking a step backwards, which I can't see Ryan doing. As trade chips, Hicks and May are probably edging towards their peak value.

You mean trading Plouffe before we know if Sano can play third, maybe?    It's hard to imagine the backlash against trading Sano, regardless of the return.

[ashbury]

I was really hoping to see him at 3B too but the people who make that decision should have a good idea if he can play 3rd by now.

It's not just judging now whether he can play third - at the moment he still really can't, as too many plays eat him up. Instead, what's important is forecasting whether he can complete the learning curve to the point that he can play the position. My sense is that he can do it. But forecasting is harder than judging - the forecast for instance may be essentially correct but off by a season or even two - just look at Aaron Hicks for a recent example of making moves based on talent evaluator forecasts.