Berrios ETA

[jimmer]

 

I get that but you're kinda acting like it's set in stone... I prefer to get upset about things only after they've happened. I don't see the point in getting riled up about something they've said they don't want to happen and hasn't actually happened yet...

There's nothing set in stone, but it's exactly how I expect it to go based on the actions we've seen as opposed to the words we've heard/read by the Twins brass.

[drjim]

 

Most likely rotation scenario that I can imagine to start the year:

 

1. Hughes

2. Santana

3. Gibson

4. Nolasco

5. May

 

AAA to start:

1. Berrios

2. Duffey

 

Meaning Milone is either in the bullpen or dealt.  After a few weeks, around May 1st, Nolasco is either hurt again or moved to the bullpen and Berrios is moved into the rotation.  Duffey will be shuffled back and forth from AAA to keep him stretched out and replaces any pitcher that gets hurt throughout the season.

 

This is just what I see happening, but I could be entirely wrong.

 

Or you could see Milone in the rotation and May in the pen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

There's nothing set in stone, but it's exactly how I expect it to go based on the actions we've seen as opposed to the words we've heard/read by the Twins brass.

That's exaggerating things a bit. The Twins have promoted guys on a pretty solid schedule this year, give or take a few guys. They do some things that baffle me but they also do a lot of things I expect and applaud.

 

I'll let the offseason play out before I condemn them for any moves they haven't made because the options to reach the point where May starts the season in the rotation are nearly endless: trade, promotion, injury, whatever.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It should be noted that very few (if any?) pitchers have deliberately gotten the Kris Bryant or Carlos Correa treatment, in terms of a recall conveniently at a notable service time threshold. There is ample evidence that it just doesn't matter nearly as much for pitchers. I think we get too caught up in these things sometimes.

 

Depending on how the offseason shakes out (if a SP or two gets moved), it wouldn't surprise me to see Berrios break camp with the big club or recalled well before the Super-2 date.

[drjim]

 

It should be noted that very few (if any?) pitchers have deliberately gotten the Kris Bryant or Carlos Correa treatment, in terms of a recall conveniently at a notable service time threshold. There is ample evidence that it just doesn't matter nearly as much for pitchers. I think we get too caught up in these things sometimes.

 

Depending on how the offseason shakes out (if a SP or two gets moved), it wouldn't surprise me to see Berrios break camp with the big club or recalled well before the Super-2 date.

 

I would be a little surprised, barring injury to others, if Berrios broke camp with the team. I would anticipate a desire to build depth and it is just hard for a rookie to debut in the rotation on day 1 and make it through the season.

 

But I agree super 2 will likely have little to do with when he comes up next year. It had very little to do with the decision this year, more of a nice side benefit.

[jimmer]

 

That's exaggerating things a bit. The Twins have promoted guys on a pretty solid schedule this year, give or take a few guys. They do some things that baffle me but they also do a lot of things I expect and applaud.

 

I'll let the offseason play out before I condemn them for any moves they haven't made because the options to reach the point where May starts the season in the rotation are nearly endless: trade, promotion, injury, whatever.

And I have applauded them for promotions this year of the young guys multiple times.  But think about when those promotions happened.  After getting an extra year and/or avoiding the Super Two time, right?  Why would they do anything different with Berrios next year?  

 

As far as May goes, think of all the excuses used here about why it was okay to put him in the bullpen. The defense of that move by the usual suspects centered around how he'd be back in the rotation this year for good and if not it was a bad move.  After it was clear that wasn't happening (to those who actually believed it would), then it changed from being a bad move to how it's better if he stays there.

 

I can't see them starting him in the rotation after how they used him in 2015.  And it's not like he deserved to be put in the pen to begin with.

 

And I'm not condemning them at all, I'm saying how I think it shakes out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

As far as May goes, think of all the excuses used here about why it was okay to put him in the bullpen. The defense of that move by the usual suspects centered around how he'd be back in the rotation this year for good and if not it was a bad move.  After it was clear that wasn't happening (to those who actually believed it would), then it changed from being a bad move to how it's better if he stays there.

As we both know, there are some on this board who applaud every move the Twins make and some who decry every move the Twins make. I think it's safe to say neither of us fall under either label.

 

I wasn't entirely against the May move to the bullpen - I wouldn't have done it myself but I could see some logic in it - but what baffled me more than anything else is moving May back into the rotation for a spot start and screwing up everything. That's where the train went completely off the tracks for me.

 

When they had Trevor make that spot start, I thought they'd try to keep him in the rotation for the rest of the season. Moving him back to the pen and losing him during the entire Yankees series was... insane.

 

As for the 2016 rotation, I hope Ryan doesn't hesitate to move one or maybe even two guys if the opportunity presents itself. May should be in the rotation to start the season and Berrios should be #6 on the list, waiting for a guy to go down or become ineffective.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would be a little surprised, barring injury to others, if Berrios broke camp with the team. I would anticipate a desire to build depth and it is just hard for a rookie to debut in the rotation on day 1 and make it through the season.

Sure.  But I think it's actually more likely that he breaks camp with us, than that he stays down for exactly 12 days like Kris Bryant.

[drjim]

 

Sure.  But I think it's actually more likely that he breaks camp with us, than that he stays down for exactly 12 days like Kris Bryant.

 

Agree on this.

[Shane Wahl]

The Nolasco signing was one year too many. I didn't feel terrible about it after the Hughes signing (which I really liked--that o.g. deal) because I thought that it was good to get those two for the total amount they did. Nolasco having only one year left on that deal would be so huge right now. The Twins could pay half and probably deal him successfully.

 

Milone needs to be dealt and I think something slightly better than a PTBNL is very likely.

 

Berrios and Duffey start in AAA next year with Rogers. All three could hopefully see time next year, with Berrios getting 5/6 of the season with the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

June time frame, pretty sure of that. It's hard to see how they clear a path for him to start any earlier than that w/o several injuries.

 

As for May......yes, it would be a waste to put a potential number 2/3 starter in the bullpen imo. And, it would be terrible for May, tens of millions down the drain. I know how I'd feel about that when I had a chance to leave....

[nicksaviking]

May should be back in the rotation and I think the front office would probably agree.  The problem is going to be that May has proven himself in the bullpen (which shouldn't be hard for a starting pitcher as they generally are more talented) so he's likely now the default BP guy when there are too many arms for the rotation. 

 

Ryan has to be active this offseason moving starters and signing/trading for hard throwers for the pen.  I think he'll try, I just hope he knows when to pull the trigger.  Overpay for velocity, and give deep discounts for age.

[jimmer]

 

June time frame, pretty sure of that. It's hard to see how they clear a path for him to start any earlier than that w/o several injuries.

 

As for May......yes, it would be a waste to put a potential number 2/3 starter in the bullpen imo. And, it would be terrible for May, tens of millions down the drain. I know how I'd feel about that when I had a chance to leave....

unfortunately for May, by the time he's a FA, he'll be 29.  If he stays pigeonholed in the bullpen, he'll be hard-pressed to convince a team to switch him back.

 

As far as Berrios(at his age)  goes, if I were him, I would remember not being brought up this year and go year to year in arbitration and then bolt as a FA.  He's said the right things, but I bet he is pissed.  I would be too if I were him.

[AlwaysinModeration]

But if he's not up by April 21, I'm going to start tapping my foot impatiently.

If that happens, I will type out a few harshly worded posts on a TD forum.

[Boom Boom]

How long will he have to stay in the minors in 2016 to push his clock back? It will be after that point.

 

2016 September call-up is another possibility... but by then Berrios will be close to his innings cap, and one has to bear in mind that JO is really, really short.

[goulik]

I will predict he is one of our starters coming out of Spring Training next year. In order our SP will be:

Santana

Hughes

Berrios

May

Gibson

 

Nolasco will be in the bullpen or gone via trade. I think we will also trade Milone in the off season; SP's that have a track record of getting as many wins as losses are desirable. Duffey will be in AAA as our first call in case of injury guy.

[strumdatjaguar]

Nolasco has very little trade value. The Twins have a bevy of mid-rotation starting pitching talent, and prospects hopefully ready in the next 2-3 years (Kohl Stewart, Gonsalves and more) .  I would suggest trading any one or two of the  following three valuable younger pitchers: Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Alex Meyer, & Tyler Duffy.  The Twins should target a good young mlb level catcher, or a top 10 prospect,(among catchers) who is projected to be at MLB level by at least 2017 - better if he's ready by mid-2016.  The Twins are going to need a catcher soon, probably now.   Suzuki has one more year, and could be very helpful as a mentor in a back-up role for at least part of next season (and maybe extend him to be back-up/mentor for another year if can continue to hit 20 points above the Butera line). 

[Hrbowski]

I would like to point out that Brad Steil is likely the one who set the innings limit, not Terry Ryan.

[nicksaviking]

I would like to point out that Brad Steil is likely the one who set the innings limit, not Terry Ryan.

As long as it's not Scott Boras.

[jimbo92107]

May will be in the pen, Berrios will be in the minors.

It's a lot easier to find relievers than to find good starters. May will be in the rotation next season. Big, strong, intelligent guy with good, improving stuff. He's a starter.

 

Assuming for a moment that Berrios makes the team in spring, you could have a starting rotation of May, Berrios, Gibson, Duffey, and Santana. That's a pretty good bunch.

 

In the bull pen I could see a serious tryout for Nick Burdi as reliever/closer, and maybe move Perkins to platoon closer/setup with Jepsen and Burdi. Next season is when some of the AA and AAA pitchers have to start appearing with the major league club. Flame throwers like Jake Reed, JT Chargois, Zach Jones, etc, have to start rising quickly to bolster the team's mediocre current crew.

[jimbo92107]

 

I will predict he is one of our starters coming out of Spring Training next year. In order our SP will be:
Santana
Hughes
Berrios
May
Gibson

Nolasco will be in the bullpen or gone via trade. I think we will also trade Milone in the off season; SP's that have a track record of getting as many wins as losses are desirable. Duffey will be in AAA as our first call in case of injury guy.

How has Tyler Duffey pitched his way off your rotation? Bender, Extra E, Big Bend, Doctor Hook, etc. He has earned his spot at least as much as Trevor May did. You can't stash arms like that at the AAA level. Duffey gets guys out!

[USAFChief]

I think it was very questionable not to find a role for Berrios this year.

 

But now that they've done that, it would be incredibly dumb to let Berrios break camp with the team next spring. Just waiting a couple weeks gives them another full year of control.

 

Since they're not incredibly dumb, I doubt there's any way that happens.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Were they incredibly dumb to make Mauer the opening day catcher in 2004 rather than calling him up ~12 days later?  Mauer was the #1 prospect in baseball two years running and went on to winning batting titles, Gold Gloves, and an MVP, that almost certainly cost them more than letting Berrios break camp with the big club in 2016 would.

 

Frankly, I don't really care if Berrios makes the club for opening day or a few weeks later, as long as they are smart about the plan (i.e. also starting Trevor May, not burying Berrios in AAA for too long, etc.).

[Riverbrian]

I have a theory.

 

Pitchers always get hurt and end up on the DL... You need more than 5 starting pitchers during the course of a year... You need more than 6... You may need 8 or 9. 

 

I think it's incredibly hard to stash a talented veteran in the minors for insurance purposes. 

 

It's incredibly easy to stash a talented youngster in the minors for insurance purposes. 

 

If my theory is correct. Berrios will be in AAA to start the season. Probably Duffey as well. If you have options left... you become an option. 

[Craig Arko]

I have a theory.

 

Pitchers always get hurt and end up on the DL... You need more than 5 starting pitchers during the course of a year... You need more than 6... You may need 8 or 9. 

 

I think it's incredibly hard to stash a talented veteran in the minors for insurance purposes. 

 

It's incredibly easy to stash a talented youngster in the minors for insurance purposes. 

 

If my theory is correct. Berrios will be in AAA to start the season. Probably Duffey as well. If you have options left... you become an option.

 

This theory has a lot of merit.

[drjim]

I have a theory.

 

Pitchers always get hurt and end up on the DL... You need more than 5 starting pitchers during the course of a year... You need more than 6... You may need 8 or 9.

 

I think it's incredibly hard to stash a talented veteran in the minors for insurance purposes.

 

It's incredibly easy to stash a talented youngster in the minors for insurance purposes.

 

If my theory is correct. Berrios will be in AAA to start the season. Probably Duffey as well. If you have options left... you become an option.

It's not just a theory it's pretty much standard operating procedure for mlb teams.

 

I'll also add that if you have a veteran under contract you might as well give him another shot in the start of the season before you cut him loose. So welcome to Nolasco breaking camp with the team and Berrios in the minors.

[goulik]

How has Tyler Duffey pitched his way off your rotation? Bender, Extra E, Big Bend, Doctor Hook, etc. He has earned his spot at least as much as Trevor May did. You can't stash arms like that at the AAA level. Duffey gets guys out!

How did May end up in the bullpen? This is how I predict it will look when Spring training is over. What's your prediction? We will see in the spring and I may be wrong! (But I might be right too)

[nicksaviking]

 

I have a theory.

 

Pitchers always get hurt and end up on the DL... You need more than 5 starting pitchers during the course of a year... You need more than 6... You may need 8 or 9. 

 

I think it's incredibly hard to stash a talented veteran in the minors for insurance purposes. 

 

It's incredibly easy to stash a talented youngster in the minors for insurance purposes. 

 

If my theory is correct. Berrios will be in AAA to start the season. Probably Duffey as well. If you have options left... you become an option. 

 

I agree, that's pretty much the template for managing a rotation these days.  It's the best way to stockpile talent. 

 

I also think it's terrible for the game.  We're missing out on prime years of young arms because teams that do this feel the need to save up for a rainy day and delay service time.  MLB really needs to figure out a way to incentivize ALL clubs into promoting young MLB capable players, particularly pitchers who for the most part have such a short shelf life in today's game.  Unfortunately the Player's Union would oppose any move that helped minor leaguers at the expense of veterans past their prime.

[beckmt]

Hopefully Nolasco will be moved this offseason, but doubt it can happen.  Twins need to move a starter(at least one) to clear up room for the prospects here and coming.  Would hate to see Milone moved(all he does is win) and has a bad game once in a while.  Twins should not move contracts just to move contracts, they should be in win mode next year and extra starters will be needed. 

[beckmt]

Would hope to see Duffey in the rotation,  if he can make the adjustments, he has nasty stuff.