Will Miguel Sano become a superstar?

[Turd Furgeson]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/8/22/9189335/miguel-sano-superstar

 

It is easy to prevaricate, caveat, and hedge your bets too much in the prospect trade, but I won't in this case.

Small sample size be damned; Miguel Sano will be a superstar, the Miguel Cabrera of his generation.

 

This is very high praise from Sickels who is a well respected prospect evaluator. What do people think, can Sano become one of those rare hitters that hits for average and power?

 

I know his BABIP is way too high to be sustainable. He does have a very nice line drive rate though. Sickels is saying that the reason Sano is striking out too much right now is because he's waiting for his perfect pitch, yet the results show he's quite capable of handling multiple different pitches. As his approach matures, I do wonder if he can become that elite hitter like Cabrera that can hit for a high average and power. 

 

[mikecgrimes]

When ou have 10 HR's in 145 at bats isn't your BABIP going to be significantly higher then even someone with 6 or 7? Thats an extra .020+ points over a solid power hitter.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I think Sano needs 1-2 homers in the series finale at Baltimore, and then, yes, he will become a superstar.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

When ou have 10 HR's in 145 at bats isn't your BABIP going to be significantly higher then even someone with 6 or 7? Thats an extra .020+ points over a solid power hitter.

home runs aren't "In Play" so .... Nope

[Craig Arko]

He has both the talent and the work ethic, so if he stays healthy, sure. I just hope it happens in a Twins uniform.

[Shane Wahl]

There is no doubt in my mind that he will be a superstar.

[goulik]

Yes, yes he will. I'll go further. I predict 40+ home runs next year (barring significant injuries), HOF, and Twins Home Runs in a season record. I further predict that some day he will rank in our hearts and minds with Killebrew and Puckett. Love, love, love this kid! It's gonna be a great ride. And he has what could be the best Twins supporting cast of all time... We will see on that. The future is bright and it is partially arrived already.

[bluechipper]

He's looked like a pro since day one, so yes I will predict he will become a superstar player. Sano appears to have the right mindset to go along with his great talent.

[birddog]

You gotta love his approach at the plate. Some of his walks have been more impressive than his HRs, so his chances for stardom are good. He has the attributes it takes: God-given talent, work ethic, and the desire to be the best. If the Twins surround him with the talent needed so teams don't pitch around him, the sky is the limit--although I don't think he'll ever hit for average like Cabrera. Just wondering though, how many had Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas labeled for super-stardom after last year?

[Turd Furgeson]

 

There is no doubt in my mind that he will be a superstar.

 

Even further though, would you say he can be the Miguel Cabrera of this generation? That's a very tall order for any hitter to live up to, IMO. 

 

I think the strike out rates absolutely must come down if he is to have any chance of it. All the greatest hitters keep their strike out rates low enough to have a high batting average. 

 

He generates ridiculous bat speed so effortlessly that it would seem he can make some proper adjustments to both his approach and maybe his swing mechanics to take that step. 

[BrianTrottier]

 

Just wondering though, how many had Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas labeled for super-stardom after last year?

 

Zero people.

[mudcat14]

Obviously, two huge factors in Sano's future success will be hitters getting on base in front of him and having a power threat or two batting behind him.  In a perfect world he will spend several seasons with good OBP guys like Buxton, Hicks, Mauer, Kepler Polanco or maybe Dozier and Rosario setting his table.  While slugging threats like Vargas, Walker, Arcia or again Dozier and Rosario make pitchers suffer for pitching around him.

 

Clearly several guys will need to take major steps forward for all of this to come into being.  But with the physical skills and track records of most of these guys, I like their chances of forming a pretty dangerous 6 or 7 deep batting order over a multi-year period. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see Sano being able to rock a .340 batting average - which then allows him to rock a .440 OBP - which prevents him from being this generation's Miggy.

 

Superstar? Yeah, maybe. Miggy? No, probably not.

 

If Sano in his prime can post something close to Thomas' career line - .300/.400/.550 - I'd be thrilled.

[mikecgrimes]

If he plays above average at 3rd easily a superstar, if he's mostly a dh/1st base he's gonna need to keep these type of #s up for a full year, maybe it won't happen next year but I have a tough time saying he won't have a 40+ hr year at some point in the next 3 or 4 years. Guys like him make you forget how hard this game usually is.

[Thrylos]

I'd be surprised if, barring injury, he is not in the next 10 or so All Star games.  Is that a "superstar"?

 

His is performing at an extrapolated 6 (b)WAR season rate at age 22...  And playing DH hurts his WAR.  To realize how ridiculous this is, Harmon Killebrew broke the 6 WAR barrier twice in his career, David Ortiz once, and Cabrera did not break the 6 WAR barrier until age 27.

 

There is no way that there should even be a discussion on the subject

[Badsmerf]

The better discussion will be next season about who is better; sano or Bryant. It is going to be fun screaming at my phone while reading some stupid espn article saying despite the numbers, Bryant is better.

[dougkoebernick]

Yes.

[Vanimal46]

Question for those that have been to Target Field. How many Sano jerseys/t shirts do you see in the crowds compared to Mauer? Is it 1 Sano jersey for every 10 Mauer? I'd imagine by next year we'll see more Sano jerseys in the stands than Mauer.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don't see Sano being able to rock a .340 batting average - which then allows him to rock a .440 OBP - which prevents him from being this generation's Miggy.

Superstar? Yeah, maybe. Miggy? No, probably not.

If Sano in his prime can post something close to Thomas' career line - .300/.400/.550 - I'd be thrilled.

 

Though not likely, I wouldn't put it past him. Once he cuts down on the strikeouts somewhat, the average can come up. He gets to stay at this level now and make adjustments. I think he's got the talent to do just about anything in this game. Nothing he would do would shock me. 

 

Also, part of "superstar", right or wrong, is personality, and Sano definitely has that. He will be beloved. 

[spinowner]

 

Question for those that have been to Target Field. How many Sano jerseys/t shirts do you see in the crowds compared to Mauer? Is it 1 Sano jersey for every 10 Mauer? I'd imagine by next year we'll see more Sano jerseys in the stands than Mauer.

My guess is that right now there are very few because very few have been made. And the next thing is, is he going to keep #22 or get something else? A number of players take whatever is available on their first call-up and then switch to something they like better after a year or two. Hrbek and Morneau are two who immediately come to mind.

[USAFChief]

I think Sano needs 1-2 homers in the series finale at Baltimore, and then, yes, he will become a superstar.

So it's settled then.

[spinowner]

And by the way, I don't want to jinx anything but dude is only 22 years old. He's got 700-HR talent if he stays healthy and has a good hitter behind him in the batting order.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And by the way, I don't want to jinx anything but dude is only 22 years old. He's got 700-HR talent if he stays healthy and has a good hitter behind him in the batting order.

I question whether anyone has 700 home run talent in today's game without cheating.

 

This isn't a game played only by white farmers against pitchers who throw 300 innings a season anymore. Even Hank Aaron wasn't some preternatural masher, he merely played very good baseball consistently for a really, really, REALLY long time.

[spinowner]

 

I question whether anyone has 700 home run talent in today's game without cheating.

This isn't a game played only by white farmers against pitchers who throw 300 innings a season anymore. Even Hank Aaron wasn't some preternatural masher, he merely played very good baseball consistently for a really, really, REALLY long time.

I'll cite Alex Rodriguez, not for career numbers but for current performance. I'm going to assume that he's playing clean, which I think is reasonable. He has 26 dingers in 113 games this year in the season in which he turned 40. If Sano can play until he's 40 (definitely speculative) what would he have to do to reach 700 by the end of that season? He needs 689 in 18 seasons plus the remaining portion of this season. That's an average of about 38 per year. As I said, he'd have to remain healthy and have a good batting order situation but I think 38 per year is within reach.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'll cite Alex Rodriguez, not for career numbers but for current performance. I'm going to assume that he's playing clean, which I think is reasonable. He has 26 dingers in 113 games this year in the season in which he turned 40. If Sano can play until he's 40 (definitely speculative) what would he have to do to reach 700 by the end of that season? He needs 689 in 18 seasons plus the remaining portion of this season. That's an average of about 38 per year. As I said, he'd have to remain healthy and have a good batting order situation but I think 38 per year is within reach.

One can't cite A-Rod without referencing career performance.

 

If he doesn't cheat, it's likely no one is citing A-Rod and 700 home runs at all.

 

Also, Sano is not A-Rod, a guy who was already one of the best players in MLB at age 20.

[spinowner]

 

One can't cite A-Rod without referencing career performance.

If he doesn't cheat, it's likely no one is citing A-Rod and 700 home runs at all.

Also, Sano is not A-Rod, a guy who was already one of the best players in MLB at age 20.

I cited Rodriguez as an example of a very talented current player still able to produce at age 40. I could just as well have cited Aaron. The season before he turned 40 he hit 40 and the season after he turned 40 he hit 20. Or Stan Musial, who played until he was 42.

Actually, I needn't have cited any particular previous player because my point has nothing to do with any particular previous player. My point was to calculate what would be needed for Sano to reach 700 if he is able to play well until he's 40. And I think he has enough talent to make that possible.

Edited to add: And besides, it's just a talking point. I think he has as good a chance as anyone, but obviously it's an unlikely occurrence. Only 2 players in history have done it legally.

[Turd Furgeson]

700 is an impossible number to think about right now. Griffey was supposed to break the record, but injuries happened, fell well short of 700. A-Rod was looking like he was going to break the home run record a few years ago but injuries and steroid suspensions happened. Pujols was jacking 40+ home runs a year for awhile but there's no chance he'll reach 700. MIguel Cabrera is on a good pace but he's 32 and still about 100 a way from 500 home runs, 700 doesn't seem possible. Sano might be able to hit 600 but he's going to have to have a very long career. 

[twinsnorth49]

My 9 year old son already thinks he's a superstar. It's pretty cool he'll get to watch him become that first something special Twin in his life. I couldn't think of a better player for it to be.

[kab21]

I don't care how many HR's Sano hits in his career.  As long as he is hitting 30+ HR's/yr with a tolerable BA and a high OBP I am okay.  And if he is doing that then he is a star even if he DH's or plays 1B. 

 

I see a .275/.375/.525/.900 hitter.  That isn't Miguel Cabrera (the lazy comp) but it is Giancarlo Stanton.  His MiLB career is a lot closer to Stanton so if you are going to dream about upside then that is more realistic.

[Bark's Lounge]

Miguel Cabrera is Miguel Cabrera. Miguel Sano is Miguel Sano.

 

I think Sano has the ability to be a superstar kind of player. He certainly is dynamic right now.

 

Whatever happens, Sano should be evaluated on his own merits. Screw Cabrera, I hate player comparables when it comes to topics like this.

 

Let Sano do his deal and let the cards fall where they may.