Will Miguel Sano become a superstar?

[RedBull34]

I don't care how many HR's Sano hits in his career.  As long as he is hitting 30+ HR's/yr with a tolerable BA and a high OBP I am okay.  And if he is doing that then he is a star even if he DH's or plays 1B. 

 

I see a .275/.375/.525/.900 hitter.  That isn't Miguel Cabrera (the lazy comp) but it is Giancarlo Stanton.  His MiLB career is a lot closer to Stanton so if you are going to dream about upside then that is more realistic.

This is also almost to the T Mike Schmidt's career line.

 

I would take a Mike Schmidt-caliber hitter for reasons other then that's my name.

[kab21]

 

Miguel Cabrera is Miguel Cabrera. Miguel Sano is Miguel Sano.

 

I think Sano has the ability to be a superstar kind of player. He certainly is dynamic right now.

 

Whatever happens, Sano should be evaluated on his own merits. Screw Cabrera, I hate player comparables when it comes to topics like this.

 

Let Sano do his deal and let the cards fall where they may.

Are you also against projecting a batting line (both upside and expected)?

[spinowner]

 

Sano might be able to hit 600 but he's going to have to have a very long career. 

Reminds me of an interesting bit of trivia. When is the most recent time that two players with 600 or more home runs played in the same game? When was the most recent time before that?

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Are you also against projecting a batting line (both upside and expected)?

Are you against individualism?

 

... and no, I am not. Do what you want to do.

 

In due time Sano's name will carry itself.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I've been to see Sano play in two games now; today and two years ago for a New Britain game against Bowie, in Maryland. Sano homered in both games in the first inning, and I was parking the car and walking up both times. In Bowie, he was courteous enough to homer again that day so I could see it. Today he only doubled.

[formerly33]

 

I've been to see Sano play in two games now; today and two years ago for a New Britain game against Bowie, in Maryland. Sano homered in both games in the first inning, and I was parking the car and walking up both times. In Bowie, he was courteous enough to homer again that day so I could see it. Today he only doubled.

Well, get there earlier, man!

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

When ou have 10 HR's in 145 at bats isn't your BABIP going to be significantly higher then even someone with 6 or 7? Thats an extra .020+ points over a solid power hitter.

BABIP rules out home runs. The formula is:

 

(H - HR) / AB - K - HR + SF)

 

So it has nothing to do with balls hit out of the park. It's about what stays in the park.

 

(that's my interpretation, anyway)

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Reminds me of an interesting bit of trivia. When is the most recent time that two players with 600 or more home runs played in the same game? When was the most recent time before that?

I am going to guess Griffey and Sosa and for your last one Aaron and Mays.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Well, get there earlier, man!

Huh. I thought for sure the reaction would be "Don't change a thing, except maybe go to more games...."

[AlwaysinModeration]

Reminds me of an interesting bit of trivia. When is the most recent time that two players with 600 or more home runs played in the same game? When was the most recent time before that?

Bonds and Griffey?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I am going to guess Griffey and Sosa and for your last one Aaron and Mays.

I'm thinking Bonds/Griffey and Aaron/Mays.

 

edit: WAIT, no! I think there is trickery afoot in this question. A-Rod/Thome?

[spinowner]

 

I'm thinking Bonds/Griffey and Aaron/Mays.

 

edit: WAIT, no! I think there is trickery afoot in this question. A-Rod/Thome?

Sunday, August 21, 2011. Thome and Rodriguez. There's no trickery there, but obviously it's more relevant because it involved our team.

The last time before that: July 17, 1973. Aaron and Mays.

[Ncgo4]

He certainly can be a super star. If his early ML performance is an indication of his skill level, he will only get better with more ML experience. I am, however, very concerned about his health. To be a contributing infielder and to avoid injury, he has got to keep his weight under control. Pulling 260-280 lbs around first and sliding into second on a hit into the corner is a recipe for trouble.

 

Boy, this is exciting to watch. Even though he may only appear in 80 games, could he potentially be rookie of the year? 25 HR's is a possibility. Scary.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sunday, August 21, 2011. Thome and Rodriguez. There's no trickery there, but obviously it's more relevant because it involved our team.

The last time before that: July 17, 1973. Aaron and Mays.

Not trickery per se but it's a tougher question than one would initially think. I wasn't sure if A-Rod had 600 homers when Thome crossed the mark (and Thome barely crossed the mark).

[Ncgo4]

Further on above. Sano had 4 2-run dingers in this 7 game road trip. Batted .321 (9 for 28) with 9 RBI's. Pretty decent start to a 10 game road trip. That's a season pace for 162 HR's and 208 RBI's. Not bad. Only needs to keep up the pace for another 39 games till season's end, certainly he can do just that much.

[sorney]

 

And by the way, I don't want to jinx anything but dude is only 22 years old. He's got 700-HR talent if he stays healthy and has a good hitter behind him in the batting order.

I like the positive outlook, but 700 HR talent?!?!  There are only 3 members of that club in the HISTORY of baseball.  Tough to lump that projection on anyone, even someone as talented as Sano seems

[spinowner]

 

I like the positive outlook, but 700 HR talent?!?!  There are only 3 members of that club in the HISTORY of baseball.  Tough to lump that projection on anyone, even someone as talented as Sano seems

It's not a projection or prediction or anything of the sort. It's just a comment that he has the talent to do it if many favorable things fall into place over the course of his career.

[formerly33]

I agree that Sano has the talent to hit 700 homeruns. Do I think he will? No. But I back anyone who says that he has the talent.

 

The problem with Sano is that he plays in a definite pitchers' park. Actually, I probably shouldn't call that a problem with Sano - far from it. It's more like a problem for Sano. But I do not see 700 homers in his future unless we ship him off to Colorado, etc.

 

I, for one, am unwilling to make the sacrifice just to see another guy with 700+ homeruns - as I'm assuming most if not all other Twins fans are.

 

But I still believe Sano can become a superstar. He isn't one already and even if he did win ROTY (not happening, btw), he still wouldn't be a superstar. That is something that comes with more experience. But I believe in him - and as a Twins fan, believing in anything feels pretty weird right now!

[jimmer]

Target Field isn't an extreme pitcher's park at all and certainly isn't a HR suppressor for right handed batters.

[Thrylos]

 

I question whether anyone has 700 home run talent in today's game without cheating.

This isn't a game played only by white farmers against pitchers who throw 300 innings a season anymore. Even Hank Aaron wasn't some preternatural masher, he merely played very good baseball consistently for a really, really, REALLY long time.

 

Hank Aaron admittedly took greenies (methamphetamines.)  So his record his asteriskable. 

[SwainZag]

700 Home Runs?!  I really thought the goal was 800  11 down, 789 to go.

[spinowner]

 

700 Home Runs?!  I really thought the goal was 800  11 down, 789 to go.

Why not? Dream big, baby!

[CampQ]

Sano will surely finish the season with more home runs than Kendrys Morales will have. Don't mean much I guess, but it kinda makes me laugh

[mikecgrimes]

He certainly can be a super star. If his early ML performance is an indication of his skill level, he will only get better with more ML experience. I am, however, very concerned about his health. To be a contributing infielder and to avoid injury, he has got to keep his weight under control. Pulling 260-280 lbs around first and sliding into second on a hit into the corner is a recipe for trouble.

 

Boy, this is exciting to watch. Even though he may only appear in 80 games, could he potentially be rookie of the year? 25 HR's is a possibility. Scary.

I was trying to look up other contenders and couldn't find anyone who would make it difficult for sano. .270 and 20 hr's might do it given all the extra rbis he already has. I'd bet on the over on both those #'s.

[spinowner]

 

700 Home Runs?!  I really thought the goal was 800  11 down, 789 to go.

 

 

Why not? Dream big, baby!

Make it 788. The number is getting worked down.

[USAFChief]

Make it 788. The number is getting worked down.

I don't know about 800. I mean the kid looks good and all, don't get me wrong. But there's less than 40 games left.

[darin617]

I think he already is becoming a superstar. The only sad part is what happens 6 years from now when we have nothing but the great memories of him as he signs a $200M contract for the insert an AL east team here...

[spinowner]

I'm sure the Twins want to avoid a repeat of the extortion they were subjected to when they had to negotiate the Mauer contract at the worst possible time. I think the team will want to go big, long and early and have good a contract insurance policy in place in case of injury.

[LaBombo]

I've only seen a couple of mentions of it, but his position and defensive value will play a big role in determining his value as a player.    If he can play even a passable third base, that's a much more valuable player than someone who DH's their whole career.

 

Right now it's almost impossible to accurately assess what Sano is, let alone will be, as a hitter, either.    That .413 BABIP isn't going to last forever.    He stands to lose a good fifty points off his slash line if his BABIP declines to, say .360 or so, which is still high but sustainable for a season.  That would give him something like a .240/.350/.550 line, which is still phenomenal but would require him to contribute defensively to project as a HOF-caliber player.

 

Then again, Sano may not be in as much danger of a batting average crash as a typical player hitting over .400 on balls in play.   His high home run rate doesn't inflate his BABIP, but will help sustain his batting average.

 

And even when the ball doesn't leave the yard, Sano hits the snot out of it.  His line drive rate of 26% would rank ninth among qualifiers.  And the subjective but still useful Fangraphs Soft/Medium/Hard Contact rating has Sano hitting the ball hard an otherworldly 49% of the time when he puts the bat on the ball.   To put that in context, the next highest hard contact hitter on the Twins roster, Trevor Plouffe, has a rating of 35%

 

So between Sano's crazy high BABIP, high K rate, advanced plate discipline for his age, and his unbelievable power, I have no idea what to expect from him.   The only certainty seems to be that he'll be fun to watch.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Did we lose a win or two by waiting to call up Sano? We waited almost a month after the supposed Super 2 date passed, we didn't have a good record in June, and in particular I think our DHs during that time were rather uninspiring.

 

Seeing how good Sano has been, and how many games he has single-handedly impacted, it makes you wonder why he wasn't simply a Super 2 callup just like Correa.

 

If it was to give Vargas another shot, that seems an even worse decision than the Santana over Escobar decision around the same time...