Nolasco to have ankle surgery

[Seth Stohs]

According to Twins GM Terry Ryan, RHP Ricky Nolasco will have surgery on his ankle on Monday. As relayed by TwinsBaseball.com's Rhett Bollinger, there is no timetable on his return.

[Craig Arko]

I remember seeing a tweet from one of the writers that this was around 5 months' recovery. So, next spring.

[kab21]

I feel conflicted.

[Danchat]

This isn't too surprising. Now the Twins can open another spot on the 40 man roster by sending him to the 60 day DL.

[jimbo92107]

I would have been shocked by any other result. You know what? Next season Nolasco might just turn into a pretty good pitcher. By then, his ankle will be in good shape and his arm will be, too.

 

Good luck, Ricky Nolasco. Rehab hard.

[drjim]

 

I would have been shocked by any other result. You know what? Next season Nolasco might just turn into a pretty good pitcher. By then, his ankle will be in good shape and his arm will be, too.

 

Good luck, Ricky Nolasco. Rehab hard.

 

People are going to be really happy when he breaks camp next year as the 5th starter and Berrios is sent back to Rochester.

[COtwin]

 

People are going to be really happy when he breaks camp next year as the 5th starter and Berrios is sent back to Rochester.

 

Nolasco should have lost all chance at having an assured slot in the rotation.  He better come in with the same hurdles as May, Gibson, Berrios, Meyer, etc.

[Platoon]

Nolasco should have lost all chance at having an assured slot in the rotation.  He better come in with the same hurdles as May, Gibson, Berrios, Meyer, etc.

Your post is spot on, absolutely correct. Perfectly phrased. Sensible and concise! But without any consideration for the current reality. The only way Ricky Nolasco is not headed a spot in the rotation on a platter, is if they accidentally remove his foot during the surgery!

[USAFChief]

 

Your post is spot on, absolutely correct. Perfectly phrased. Sensible and concise! But without any consideration for the current reality. The only way Ricky Nolasco is not headed a spot in the rotation on a platter, is if they accidentally remove his foot during the surgery!

I feel conflicted.

[Mike Sixel]

Bummer for him. Good luck. Speedy recovery.

[nokomismod]

Is there any upside to this at all besides not having to watch the current Nolasco pitch? Will the Twins get any insurance settlement based on the ankle or elbow injuries this year?

[spinowner]

It is obvious that the results have not been good, but I still want to give him the benefit of doubt. His history is that of a much better pitcher than we've seen. Pitching is difficult enough when healthy, and he has not been so during his tenure with the Twins. I don't think he should be guaranteed a place in the rotation but if he is competent next spring I think he should be given a chance to show what he can really do, just like Pelfrey this year.

[beckmt]

Hope for a speedy recovery.  At the current time he has little market value, with his contract he will make the club.  Twins may have a list of starting pitcher candidates to choose from.   This is getting better and better. 

[Halsey Hall]

Ruesse was talking last week and stated that if you walk into a grocery store and steal a bag of potato chips and get caught, you go to jail.  But in baseball you can steal millions. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Will the Twins get any insurance settlement based on the ankle or elbow injuries this year?

They might get insurance money this year -- it seems like surgery usually triggers it.  Probably nothing huge, though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ruesse was talking last week and stated that if you walk into a grocery store and steal a bag of potato chips and get caught, you go to jail.  But in baseball you can steal millions. 

To be fair, Nolasco stole nothing, unless you think he's not following the terms of his contract in good faith.

[DaveW]

To be fair, Nolasco stole nothing, unless you think he's not following the terms of his contract in good faith.

Yeah, he has been bad, but most of that is due to injury. Sucks, but it's part of the game, I don't hold it against him or think he is "stealing" from the Twins. Carl Pavano on the Yankees this is not.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, he has been bad, but most of that is due to injury. Sucks, but it's part of the game, I don't hold it against him or think he is "stealing" from the Twins. Carl Pavano on the Yankees this is not.

Pavano was hurt in NY too, no?

[Winston Smith]

Considering that Nolasco was mediocre, in the NL, at his best I have little faith that we will ever get much out of the guy after surgery and a long lay off.

[SwainZag]

 

Is there any upside to this at all besides not having to watch the current Nolasco pitch? Will the Twins get any insurance settlement based on the ankle or elbow injuries this year?

 

I would say the upside would be....simply not having to try and fit him in somewhere in the middle of the playoff race when they have 6 other starters on the roster.  A blessing in disguise.

[DaveW]

Pavano was hurt in NY too, no?

Yeah...but it was thought a couple of the injuries were a bit exaggerated at one point.

[gil4]

 

I would say the upside would be....simply not having to try and fit him in somewhere in the middle of the playoff race when they have 6 other starters on the roster.  A blessing in disguise.

Definitely more blessing than disguise.  My first thought was surgery is a pretty extreme measure for a fake DL to clear space in the rotation.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Nolasco's situation is further proof that using free agency to improve your pitching staff is a complete crap shoot.   Pelfrey, Santana and now Nolasco prove that getting "full value" for a free agent pitcher is highly unlikely.   

 

The question I am interested in is what is the standard for a quality free agent signing?  If career average, less a specific percentage of career average for regression is the basic formula, what percent is considered reasonable to get a reasonable return on investment?   10%, 25%, 50%?

[Loosey]

 

    Pavano was hurt in NY too, no?

Yeah...but it was thought a couple of the injuries were a bit exaggerated at one point.

But in Pavano's defense his was spending his DL time with Alyssa Milano.  I'd have milked the injuries too.

[ashbury]

Nolasco's situation is further proof that using free agency to improve your pitching staff is a complete crap shoot. 

It's the penalty a team pays when the minor league system doesn't produce all that's needed. Few teams can succeed without occasionally resorting to it, some teams have so much money that they do it without too much angst, but no team wants to, except to acquire the very highest caliber of talent.

[ashbury]

The question I am interested in is what is the standard for a quality free agent signing?  If career average, less a specific percentage of career average for regression is the basic formula, what percent is considered reasonable to get a reasonable return on investment?   10%, 25%, 50%?

It's almost impossible to get a reasonable return on investment, when the comparison is to the artificially low salaries paid to young players.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Nolasco's situation is further proof that using free agency to improve your pitching staff is a complete crap shoot.   Pelfrey, Santana and now Nolasco prove that getting "full value" for a free agent pitcher is highly unlikely.

To be fair, Nolasco and even Santana were kind of low-end signings among major FA SP (and Pelfrey was positively bargain bin).  I don't think that shows FA SP are a "complete crap shoot."

 

If you look at $70+ mil FA SP signings at MLBTR's transaction tracker, they are actually pretty good:

http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/transactions-tracker&link=true&widget=true&amount=70&amount_type=4&type_ID=7&positionType_ID=9&value_verbiage=1&lang=41

 

I realize that list is incomplete (Cliff Lee?), but still, Zito is the only standout bust in that group of 10.  Everyone else turned in multiple solid seasons in their original contract period (or it's too early to judge).  The bust rate increases in lower salary groups, as you would expect.  Not really a crap shoot at all.

 

Obviously due to their salaries, they're probably not going to provide the same "value" as a good pre-FA pitcher, but they can still be pretty good for what they are -- IF you are smart about your investments.  Two of the biggest duds -- Zito and Hampton -- were fairly easy to identify by their peripherals.  A few more recent questionable signings (Verlander's and Sabathia's latest deals, Bailey, Porcello, Cain) have been extensions, where teams were probably a little too eager to lock up their own guys.  Actually going big-bucks on an outright FA seems to work more often than one might expect (conventional wisdom suggests the best SP won't ever reach FA).

 

I think the Twins backed themselves into a corner and had to commit to Nolasco at these terms out of desperation.  (And then had to repeat the exercise with Santana in large part due to Nolasco's failure, although I believe Ervin to be the better bet.)  If we had maintained any kind of decent starting staff and/or stable of SP prospects, we probably could have waited out the market for a better deal or fit, or saved our resources for a shot at a real ace like Scherzer.

 

I don't think our staff would be better today if we didn't sign any FA SP at all, though.

[jorgenswest]

Timing is the issue. The Twins have a lot of money tied into the decline of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco. Berrios, May and Gibson need spots. Next winter looks to be a great year to get a top pitcher. The Twins are not in a position to add to the front end with so much money committed to the back end. If they had been patient, they could be going into this offseason with the dollars to address the top of the rotation at a time when the prospects have just arrived.

[kab21]

 

To be fair, Nolasco and even Santana were kind of low-end signings among major FA SP (and Pelfrey was positively bargain bin).  I don't think that shows FA SP are a "complete crap shoot."

 

If you look at $70+ mil FA SP signings at MLBTR's transaction tracker, they are actually pretty good:

http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/transactions-tracker&link=true&widget=true&amount=70&amount_type=4&type_ID=7&positionType_ID=9&value_verbiage=1&lang=41

 

I realize that list is incomplete (Cliff Lee?), but still, Zito is the only standout bust in that group of 10.  Everyone else turned in multiple solid seasons in their original contract period (or it's too early to judge).  The bust rate increases in lower salary groups, as you would expect.  Not really a crap shoot at all.

 

Obviously due to their salaries, they're probably not going to provide the same "value" as a good pre-FA pitcher, but they can still be pretty good for what they are -- IF you are smart about your investments.  Two of the biggest duds -- Zito and Hampton -- were fairly easy to identify by their peripherals.  A few more recent questionable signings (Verlander's and Sabathia's latest deals, Bailey, Porcello, Cain) have been extensions, where teams were probably a little too eager to lock up their own guys.  Actually going big-bucks on an outright FA seems to work more often than one might expect (conventional wisdom suggests the best SP won't ever reach FA).

 

I think the Twins backed themselves into a corner and had to commit to Nolasco at these terms out of desperation.  (And then had to repeat the exercise with Santana in large part due to Nolasco's failure, although I believe Ervin to be the better bet.)  If we had maintained any kind of decent starting staff and/or stable of SP prospects, we probably could have waited out the market for a better deal or fit, or saved our resources for a shot at a real ace like Scherzer.

 

I don't think our staff would be better today if we didn't sign any FA SP at all, though.

This matches my observations as well.  If you spend big like Greinke, tanaka or Scherzer then you can do pretty well if they stay healthy.  The reason is that there is a margin of error where they can decline a little (become a #3) and you still have a useable pitcher in your rotation.

 

The riskiest group is the 40-80M group.  They are getting paid substantial money but they have mostly performed as #3's in their careers.  A small decline or injury and they become 4's or 5's (or worse).  The bargain group of signings like Pelfrey and Correia don't have the same upside but they do less damage to the payroll long term.

 

I am not willing to consider Hughes as a pitcher in decline.  he has struggled but I think he is going to be quite good for the duration of his contract.  My concern would be Gibson not improving his K rate and being a 4+ ERA pitcher.

[howieramone2]

Timing is the issue. The Twins have a lot of money tied into the decline of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco. Berrios, May and Gibson need spots. Next winter looks to be a great year to get a top pitcher. The Twins are not in a position to add to the front end with so much money committed to the back end. If they had been patient, they could be going into this offseason with the dollars to address the top of the rotation at a time when the prospects have just arrived.

Way too much hindsight. Our favorite team has all kinds of money they can spent, and Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco are far from non-performing contracts at this point. Six or seven competent starting pitchers is not too many.