Are you ready to change your win prediction?

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins currently sit at 21-17. Extrapolate that record out to 162 games - stop laughing - and you get an 89 win season.

 

I know most of us settled into the 70-78 win range before the season. I expected 75 wins and considered knocking that number down to 73 after the Santana suspension.

 

I'm still holding fast to 75 wins but if the Twins exit May with a winning record, I'm going to start moving that number closer to 80. This team has been quite lucky but unlike earlier teams that got off to a hot start, their success isn't entirely built on smoke and mirrors (eg. the 2014 Minnesota Twins). There's talent on this team and a lot of it is still underperforming, particularly the position players. Add in the potential improvement of Hicks, a new bullpen, and possibly Buxton and things could look really interesting by the end of the season.

 

Are you ready to change your prediction yet or is it still too soon?

[jokin]

Too soon.  This team is sporting Plouffe, Escobar and Suzuki in the middle of the order.  Mauer appears to have returned to his 2014 funk.

 

Yesterday's and Saturday's game illustrated that Gibson has returned to Earth and May will be inconsistent and subject to the big inning.  And also that the bullpen will continue to be shaky, especially if Fien doesn't hit the ground running when he comes off of the DL.

[Gernzy]

I think 85 wins is possible. Sure things need to go right, but a lot would need to go wrong for us to loss 90 games. Hopefully those days are behind us.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think 85 wins is possible. Sure things need to go right, but a lot would need to go wrong for us to loss 90 games. Hopefully those days are behind us.

I'm still on the fence but I think 85 wins and 90 losses are both unlikely... But if you made me choose the more likely of the two, I'd choose 90 losses.

[spinowner]

It's not on the record, but I went into the season expecting upper 70's in the win column. I'll go on the record now predicting 81-81.

[Loosey]

 

Too soon.  This team is sporting Plouffe, Escobar and Suzuki in the middle of the order.  Mauer appears to have returned to his 2014 funk.

 

I really don't get everyone's dislike for Plouffe.  No he isn't an all-star 3rd baseman, but he also isn't bad.  Personally, I think he is a very solid 3rd baseman both offensively and even more so defensively now.  .260 with 15-20 HR's and solid D. . . . I would think most Twins fans would take that, but for some reason nobody likes this guy.  If we were a better team he would hit in the 7th, but that isn't his fault nobody else can hit for power.

[Mike Sixel]

Still expect 75-78 wins. Fangraphs had an article last week pointing out their luck/timing......

[Mike Sixel]

Plouffe is a top 10 3B. I also don't get the dislike of him.

 

I totally get the Suzuki and Escobar questions though.........

[Linus]

In spring training, I predicted .500 and I am sticking with that.  They score enough runs and they should be able to cull through the potential starters to find 5 that are acceptable or better.  This will be particularly true when Santana comes back.

[JB_Iowa]

I've always felt this team was totally unpredictable.

 

There are too many younger players who can progress -- or regress.  Plus, there are a plethora of minor leaguers who may get a chance to make an impact.

 

Just sit back and enjoy the ride.  You'll have plenty of time to dissect whether they will finish the season with a winning record.

 

There's quite a bit of young talent available -- majors and minors.  It depends on who gets hot AND whether the Twins harness that heat.

[Loosey]

I am going to predict they win around 80 games.  I think pitching is what has hampered the them in past years and this years version appears to have solidified things somewhat.  Even though the offense isn't explosive they are efficient and continue to generate runs.  With reinforcements on the way in terms of Santana on the mound and Hicks/Buxton, etc.  I think they can stay afloat and play .500ish ball the rest of the season.

 

[jokin]

 

I really don't get everyone's dislike for Plouffe.  No he isn't an all-star 3rd baseman, but he also isn't bad.  Personally, I think he is a very solid 3rd baseman both offensively and even more so defensively now.  .260 with 15-20 HR's and solid D. . . . I would think most Twins fans would take that, but for some reason nobody likes this guy.  If we were a better team he would hit in the 7th, but that isn't his fault nobody else can hit for power.

 

I think you missed my point, I don't dislike Plouffe, at all.  But i did answer directly to the OP>  A team on which Plouffe is asked to bat clean-up, probably isn't likely to end up in the post-season.

[jokin]

 

I've always felt this team was totally unpredictable.

 

There are too many younger players who can progress -- or regress.  Plus, there are a plethora of minor leaguers who may get a chance to make an impact.

 

Just sit back and enjoy the ride.  You'll have plenty of time to dissect whether they will finish the season with a winning record.

 

There's quite a bit of young talent available -- majors and minors.                                                                                  It depends on who gets hot AND whether the Twins harness that heat.

 

Yep, this is the epitome of a Forrest Gump team ("Life is like a box of chocolates...").   And because of that, the first 6 weeks of the season have been enjoyable.  But realistically, aren't there always a few pieces in that chocolate box that we turn our noses at?  

 

I especially agree with your last point.  The Twins had already de facto designated an essentially unusable 25th man in JR Graham, and now they look very comfortable with extending Doug Bernier's stay, rather than doing more of that necessary "heat harnessing" you so eloquently referred to.  I would think continuing a series of head-scratching roster decisions, like throwing non-performers out there day after day like Duensing, Hermann, Stauffer, et al....  will eventually cost them some winnable games.

[jokin]

 

In spring training, I predicted .500 and I am sticking with that.  They score enough runs and they should be able to cull through the potential starters to find 5 that are acceptable or better.  This will be particularly true when Santana comes back.

 

I hope you're right about Santana, but I fear about counting too much on a guy who has likely enhanced his previous production, and will now have no choice but to pitch PED-free---   unless maybe if he hires ARod's "nutrition consultant."

[Loosey]

 

I think you missed my point, I don't dislike Plouffe, at all.  But i did answer directly to the OP>  A team on which Plouffe is asked to bat clean-up, probably isn't likely to end up in the post-season.

Which I started to get after I was most of the way through my response post.  Which is why I added the part about how as a team it would be better if he were a #7 or #6 hitter instead of batting clean-up (I shoudl have clarfied better).  That being said, even though you may not be part of them, there is a large group of people on this site that really dislike Plouffe.  I don't get their reasoning.  I personally would like to see an extension for him even with Sano being his possible replacement in a year.  If you can sign him to a team friendly deal AND Sano is what everyone wants him to be.  You can then get something for Plouffe or find a spot for him.

[nicksaviking]

It's hard to be predictive of clutch stats, and these figures seem to be the only numbers that really corallate to the Twins win total. 

 

If it's some kind of physical adjustment or game plan that is causing the Twins to hit better with runners in scoring position and late in games, then they probably can continue winning.

 

If it's luck or chance then you'd think things would even out. 

 

If it's some other intangible aspect that causes the players to intensify their focus or abilities in clutch situations, then it may be able to continue. 

 

Of course if it's that third thing, we may need to look into why they can't perform like that in non-critical situations.

 

 

[jokin]

 

Which I started to get after I was most of the way through my response post.  Which is why I added the part about how as a team it would be better if he were a #7 or #6 hitter instead of batting clean-up (I shoudl have clarfied better).  That being said, even though you may not be part of them, there is a large group of people on this site that really dislike Plouffe.  I don't get their reasoning.  I personally would like to see an extension for him even with Sano being his possible replacement in a year.  If you can sign him to a team friendly deal AND Sano is what everyone wants him to be.  You can then get something for Plouffe or find a spot for him.

 

I've long had on my wish list that the Twins either try transitioning Plouffe into a Super-Utility role (ie, one extra role could be hitting against LH in place of Arcia and slotting Escobar at 3rd until Sano arrives) or trade him during one of his hot streaks to maximize his value in return.  He's a good piece to a larger puzzle, he's just not the guy batting clean-up on a contending team.

[gunnarthor]

I thought they'd be ".500ish" and I'll stick with that.  I think the ML team is doing a great job of holding its own and with potentially big reinforcements coming this season (and younger guys improving), I might be on the low end.  But I'll stick to ".500ish".

[Squirrel]

I'm not good with predictions. I also don't like to start a season with predictions of hopelessness, even if that's the likelihood. I'd rather enjoy the wins when we get them. But I'll go on record and predict a .500 finish and hope and cheer for that.

[USAFChief]

Fix the bullpen and stop giving away roster spots would be a good start.

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins are making bad roster decisions that are going to cost them wins. So while 80 wins could be achieved from a talent standpoint, they will wind up in the mid-70s due to poor management.

[stringer bell]

I was optimistic and said 85 wins. I will stick with that. It is amazing to me that they are at 21-17 when no one is far exceeding expectations on the hitting side. Thompson and Boyer have surprised on the mound and the back of the rotation has been better than in the past four years. Great parity in the AL. A lot of teams could win between 80 and 85 IMHO.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, we've got a .500 Pythag record right now.

[Willihammer]

My preseason prediciton is the same every year: the Twins will finish somewhere between last and WS winners, so I will stick with that.

 

The Twins finished 14-14 in their stretch of 28/35 games inside the division. That was better than I expected and gives them a good shot at staying relevant for a while yet (knock on wood, sign of the cross, etc).

[Seth Stohs]

I had 72-73 wins before the season started. After one week, I had about 67-67 wins. Now, I'll say 75-76.

[formerly33]

 

I'm still on the fence but I think 85 wins and 90 losses are both unlikely... But if you made me choose the more likely of the two, I'd choose 90 losses.

How sad.

[formerly33]

I've been doing a lot of thinking. At the end of April, I was in a state of deep mourning because the Twins had a worse record than we had the year before at that time, and last year we ended the season with a 70-92 record. It didn't look too hopeful for any Twins fans, really. But the thing I didn't stop to think about was that we had played 2 less games and hadn't lost any more than we had last year (April 2014's record was 12-12 and April 2015's record was 10-12).

 

However, the tables turned rather quickly. The Twins streak at the end of this April was W1, and that carried into May for a 5 game winning streak, beating last year's longest winning streak by 1 and placing us 2 games above .500 ball, also beating last year's best record by 1. Last year we ended the month of April with a streak of L1, and that carried over into May for a 4 game losing streak.

 

At this time last year, the Twins record stood at 21-21. This year, we are 21-17. So, while at the end of April we had already lost as many games as we had the year before with a worse record, the Twins have now won as many games as we had on this date last year, but we have a better record.

 

To me, that's pretty exciting. It used to be that every year I would have great hopes for the Twins in April, but that would die a little month by month until by the time August rolled around, I would have predicted a worse record for the Twins than we actually ended up with on the season.

 

This year I didn't have much hope in April, but now that it's May and our record on the month is 11-5, it seems like the Twins are set to win 90 games. But maybe it's just the opposite of the last 4 years - I'll get more and more hope worked up for the team until by August I'll predict a better record for the Twins than we'll actually end up with. But, depending on what I predict, that may not turn out to be too horrible of a deal at all.

 

I also noticed something fairly interesting about road games within our division. The first was a 3 game series against Detroit to start the season, and we were swept. Now, obviously everyone's going to remember that, but I'm putting it down for posterity, so bear with me. The next was a 3 game series in Chicago in which we won 1 game. Then we had that series against KC when they were still bickering with every team they played except us, and we lost 1 out of 3 games. Then we finally won a series on the road about a week ago when we were in Cleveland, but the very next series was in Detroit, and we lost 2 out of 3 games there. However, we do seem to be improving on the road, and after a series in Pittsburgh (I didn't bother to think much about that series since it's our first interleague play this year), we're back in Chicago, taking on the Sox in a 3 game series. Now this is where we get to the interesting part: we don't have another road game within our division until July, when we'll go to KC for a 4 game series. Then we have another wait until we play Cleveland in August, and then again we won't have another until a series each with KC, Chicago, and Detroit, and 2 series with Cleveland in September.

 

So, while our worst play has been in division road games, soon we'll have gotten past the worst of it until September - a truly crucial month for any contending team - and then, ironically, the team we play twice is the Indians, who we have so far fared the best against. So, let's just sit back and take a breather while we can...and enjoy some more Twins wins.

[h2oface]

Nope. When is pace the pace? On pace to win 89 games now, eh? At 1-6, they were on pace to win 23 games, so I guess that means we can expect only 2 more wins. But that wasn't the pace? It was fools' pace? Is this fools' pace, now? I didn't change my prediction because of Santana going out, because I figured that Santana, at best, was a .500 addition to the team. Nothing to help and nothing to hurt, just classic blah. 50 some million worth of more blah.

 

I'm at 79-83. Prime numbers, baby. In my mind, you only get one prediction, and that is at the beginning of the year before the season starts. I don't care if your brackets are blown up. You only get one pick.

[Dave T]

I think the Twins are a hard team to project.  Are they under-performing or over-achieving?  Will the real Ricky Nolasco please stand up?

 

Here's a clue from Twins management:  Vargas got demoted in spite of his solid stats in May.  The message I read was, "Good enough is not going to cut it".  Vargas has the potential to be one of the top RBI guys in the game.  He needs to get his groove back.

 

The next clue, I feel, will be what they do with Stauffer.  He can't get anyone out in AAA.  If the Twins bring him back up, you can kiss .500 good-bye.  If they cut him, I'm drinking the Kool Aid and upping my guesstimate to 85 wins.

[Vanimal46]

The bullpen is still a little too shaky in my eyes to be a .500 team. Thompson and Boyer have been pleasant surprises, but Duensing, Stauffer (before getting sent down), and Fien have been pretty brutal. I'll still go with 75 wins unless there's a new addition via trade or AAA to fix the bullpen.