Is Phil Hughes an ace?

[jorgenswest]

The Twins have had a few very good seasons from a pitcher since Johan. Liriano was very good in 2010 and Hughes was very good last year. Neither pitcher has been very consistent in his career mixing bad and mediocre seasons with a few very good seasons.

 

I don't think anyone would have projected Phil Hughes to be an ace this year based on his previous 3-5 years. Mix in the Twins defense with a league average FIP and a pitcher with an ERA about 10% above league average is what should be expected. Is that worth the contract the Twins gave him? Probably. The contract does make him much more difficult to trade.

[jimmer]

 

The Twins have had a few very good seasons from a pitcher since Johan. Liriano was very good in 2010 and Hughes was very good last year. Neither pitcher has been very consistent in his career mixing bad and mediocre seasons with a few very good seasons.

I don't think anyone would have projected Phil Hughes to be an ace this year based on his previous 3-5 years. Mix in the Twins defense with a league average FIP and a pitcher with an ERA about 10% above league average is what should be expected. Is that worth the contract the Twins gave him? Probably. The contract does make him much more difficult to trade.

yeah, his contract now certainly does make him harder to trade. On this rebuilding team, trading a guy who had such a huge outlying season(and a great contract) for prospects (or a quality OF, perhaps), would have been a better move than extending him.

[big dog]

My own personal definition is that an ace is someone recognized across the league as more than just a team's best pitcher.  If you have an ace pitcher, you expect to win when he starts and it is built on multiple years.   Last year, even though Hughes had ace-like stats, I just knew that the Twins had a chance to win.  This year, I hope to get to that level soon.  One year should not an ace make, whether it is a rookie year or year that could mean "breakout" or "fluke".

 

From the other side of the field, when you are facing an ace you think "Man, I hope we can get a fluke run and try to make it stand up today."  People may have thought that about Hughes in the second half of this year, but probably not right now.

 

Radke and Baker gave the Twins a good chance to win.  That's a really good thing but with my definition, it doesn't make them true league-wide aces.

[Rosterman]

Radke and Baker were are #1 starters. They didn't always match up well against most team's #1 starters. Francisco Liriano had the potential to be a long-term Ace. He still isn't quite there. Matt garza, another former Twin, has had his stumbling blocks. I don't know what we would call, say, Kyle Lohse.

 

Greinke an Ace? He was the best thing for Kansas City? But is he the secondary guy in Los Angeles.

 

Going back, was Dean Chance and MudCat Grant Aces? Camilo Pascual? Would you call Jim Kaat in his prime an ace? Bert Blyeleven throughout his "Hall of Fame" career? Isn't Jack Morris considered an Ace? Should Aces automatically get a Hall of Fame call?

[Thrylos]

 

No he's not an ace.  Not many teams have an ace, period.  We haven't had an ace since Johan.

 

Frankie was almost there.

[jimmer]

 

Radke and Baker were are #1 starters. They didn't always match up well against most team's #1 starters. Francisco Liriano had the potential to be a long-term Ace. He still isn't quite there. Matt garza, another former Twin, has had his stumbling blocks. I don't know what we would call, say, Kyle Lohse.

 

Greinke an Ace? He was the best thing for Kansas City? But is he the secondary guy in Los Angeles.

 

Going back, was Dean Chance and MudCat Grant Aces? Camilo Pascual? Would you call Jim Kaat in his prime an ace? Bert Blyeleven throughout his "Hall of Fame" career? Isn't Jack Morris considered an Ace? Should Aces automatically get a Hall of Fame call?

Teams can have more than once ace caliber pitcher.  Tigers have had more than one at a time recently like the Dodgers and the Nats do now. Just because a pitcher is a team's #2 doesn't mean he isn't ace caliber.

 

And just because a guy happens to be designated a team's best starter (or a team's ace), doesn't mean he is an ace.

[USAFChief]

I agree.  Like I said, he was an ace last year.  Absolutely.  Really the question is whether or not he can repeat last year because last year was way out of his norm.  I, personally, think he's somewhere between what he was prior to last year and what he was last year.  He was a very good sign by Terry Ryan.  Not sure about the extension (I might have flipped him if I could get a GM to buy on his career year or just let his contract ride), but the original sign was a good move.  

 .

Concur.

[Craig Arko]

In any event, he'd need to sustain a high level for more than one season to be considered an ace. That should be true of any pitcher. The question is premature.

[HitInAPinch]

 

What makes someone an "ace" then?  I have trouble rationalizing a definition that doesn't include how ridiculously good Hughes was last year.

 

And "ace" is a pitcher that hitters fear and he can repeat his success year after year.  By normal standards, Hughes had a good year.  Only by Twins standards was it a "ridiculously" good year.  I just hope Hughes doesn't follow his history and have a down year this year.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Is Phil Hughes an ace? He had a lower FIP than Lester and Hamels, and most people consider them aces.

 

Also, how much could we get for him in a trade?

I think Hughes is a guy who could really benefit in having a big fastball guy like Meyer in front of him.  Every time I've seen him pitch, he seems to pitch backwards: breaking balls first, fastball second. 

 

In a trade?  Remember what we got for Johan Santana?  If the Twins had traded Hughes after last season, they had a better chance at getting a better deal.

[mikelink45]

Good pitcher, not an ace.  His record will suffer if we match him against the number ones on the other teams.  But he has tremendous value and the goal is to get others to pitch past him.  He is our current standard for pitching.  It would not match the standard of the majority of teams, but it is a start. 

[laloesch]

 

So Radke was not an Ace. Nor Scott Baker. At all?!?

 

An Ace is a dominant pitcher who keeps you in the game (used to be for at least 7 innings or more) and even though might pitch to a Blyleven or Morris W-L record, has a good chance of winning any game they are put against another team's ace.

 

Hughes is not there. He could be. But is he better than Ervin? Or Nolasco circa 2013?

 

Seriously?  This post is a joke right?  Hughes is head and shoulders better than Nolasco, even circa 2013.  No comparison.  Radke WAS the DEFACTO ace on some very very bad Twins teams before that next generation of starters arrived (Santana, Milton, Redman & Mays). 

 

Scott Baker was never an ace EVER.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Oh, how fun. We're arguing over the definition of "ace" again. Can we debate what qualifies as "elite" next?

 

"Ace" is a personal definition. To me, Hughes is not an ace but he had an ace-like season in 2014. Right now, I view him more in the Matt Garza mold. A very good pitcher who has the occasional ace-like season while more of a 2/3 starter in other years. Your mileage may vary.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

In a trade?  Remember what we got for Johan Santana?  If the Twins had traded Hughes after last season, they had a better chance at getting a better deal.

 

Let's see what the Twins got for Johan Santana:

 

- A five tool All Star Gold Glove Centerfielder

- A guy who would had been the Twins' best pitcher in 2011 (had he still been with the team and had the year he had with the White Sox)

- The 35th best prospect according to the BA who is still 26 and in the minors and has yet to reach his prime

- And Kevin Mulvey.

 

What did the Mets get for that?  1.5 good season of Santana

 

The fact that Gardenhire could not communicate with Gomez and his exuberance and personality was too much with him and wanted him out, is a different story.  So it the fact that Anderson could not harness Humber's potential (he was not even given a chance with the Twins.)  Guerra is still a TBD in my mind.

 

Not that bad of a trade, under different circumstances, given that fact that the Twins were selling low because everyone knew they had to sell...

 

I'd argue that 2.5 years of Santana for 10+ years of Gomez, straight up, tilts that trade to the Twins' side.  Manager of the Millennium aside.

[Mill1634]

No but Trevor May is

[chopper0080]

No.  My arguement being that I have not seen Hughes consistently take over and dominate games by himself.  That doesn't mean he can't be the best pitcher on a playoff team.

[Twodogs]

I wonder if the New York Yankee fans think Hughes is an ACE?  Is Scott Erickson an ACE?

 

It would seem to me that an Ace is an Ace no matter where he is, stick Clayton Kershaw on any team and he is good.  Hughes like Erickson in his rookie season had an Ace like season.  For one season they pitched like an Ace, now if Hughes does that over and over and over again? Hell yeah then he will be known as an Ace.  But right now he had one Ace like season.

[ashbury]

Unless a guy pitches a complete game shutout every once in a while, if only just to show off, I have trouble thinking of him as an ace. I realize CGs are not the norm anymore; that's kind of my point about aces, then. Just once in a while, maybe by accident when on the road at a pitcher's park, is all I ask.

[jimmer]

No doubt Ace Johan Santana had two Cy Young seasons where he had 2 CG in 68 starts.  Ironically, in the season where he was robbed (the season Colon won), he had 3 CG.  Unfortunately, nowadays, pitchers aren't allowed to complete games that they certainly could.  Bert probably has more to say on the subject :-)

[tobi0040]

 

Let's see what the Twins got for Johan Santana:

 

- A five tool All Star Gold Glove Centerfielder

- A guy who would had been the Twins' best pitcher in 2011 (had he still been with the team and had the year he had with the White Sox)

- The 35th best prospect according to the BA who is still 26 and in the minors and has yet to reach his prime

- And Kevin Mulvey.

 

What did the Mets get for that?  1.5 good season of Santana

 

The fact that Gardenhire could not communicate with Gomez and his exuberance and personality was too much with him and wanted him out, is a different story.  So it the fact that Anderson could not harness Humber's potential (he was not even given a chance with the Twins.)  Guerra is still a TBD in my mind.

 

Not that bad of a trade, under different circumstances, given that fact that the Twins were selling low because everyone knew they had to sell...

 

I'd argue that 2.5 years of Santana for 10+ years of Gomez, straight up, tilts that trade to the Twins' side.  Manager of the Millennium aside.

 

We all have different definitions and perceptions of what an "ace" is.  So this will always be a very difficult subject to find consensus.

 

My definition:

 

One of the top 20-25 pitchers in baseball.

 

Phil Hughes was an ace last year by that definition. He was 6th in FIP and 5th in WAR.  For his career, his ERA is about 3.90 when you back out his innings in the new Yankee stadium, which are clearly an outlier.

 

Is he an ace?  It depends on where he goes from here. Does he repeat 2014 or is more of the 3.90 ERA guy,  which is more of a #2 or low  #3 in my book.

 

 

[ashbury]

 

Unfortunately, nowadays, pitchers aren't allowed to complete games that they certainly could. 

Early season that's certainly true. After about this point, though, if a guy is working on a shutout, he often (not always) is allowed to keep trying, unless the pitch count has gone past 110 or so. CG shutouts do exist. Guys like Kershaw get the chance anytime they are in the neighborhood of one. Which again circles back to the relationship of CGs (shutout or otherwise) and aces; it's as much a sign of the respect of the manager as anything else.

[USAFChief]

 

Early season that's certainly true. After about this point, though, if a guy is working on a shutout, he often (not always) is allowed to keep trying, unless the pitch count has gone past 110 or so. CG shutouts do exist. Guys like Kershaw get the chance anytime they are in the neighborhood of one. Which again circles back to the relationship of CGs (shutout or otherwise) and aces; it's as much a sign of the respect of the manager as anything else.

It's rather amazing how much things have changed in a relatively short time.

 

Bert Blyleven debuted as a 19 yr old in 1970.  From 1971 through 1976 (when he was traded mid season) he never threw less than 275 innings in a season, and had 110 complete games.  His ERAs in that stretch ranged from a high of 3.00 to a low of 2.66.

 

He was 25 yrs old at the end of that run.  He threw another 3000 innings AFTER that, including five more seasons over 250 with 293 as a 34 yr old, and ended with a career 3.31 ERA.

 

 

 

If Hughes is an ace, how much would Blyleven (who wasn't regarded as the top pitcher of his era), be worth today with those numbers?

[jimmer]

 

It's rather amazing how much things have changed in a relatively short time.

 

Bert Blyleven debuted as a 19 yr old in 1970.  From 1971 through 1976 (when he was traded mid season) he never threw less than 275 innings in a season, and had 110 complete games.  His ERAs in that stretch ranged from a high of 3.00 to a low of 2.66.

 

He was 25 yrs old at the end of that run.  He threw another 3000 innings AFTER that, including five more seasons over 250 with 293 as a 34 yr old, and ended with a career 3.31 ERA.

 

 

 

If Hughes is an ace, how much would Blyleven (who wasn't regarded as the top pitcher of his era), be worth today with those numbers?

If Blyleven could have put up numbers like that in today's game he'd be worth over 20M a season and there would be no debate he was HOF worthy, but one wonders if he could have.  Much different age.

[USAFChief]

 

  Much different age.

It is indeed.

 

One wonders why.  I don't think the drastically reduced workload has had any positive effect on pitcher injuries, or longivity.

[Thegrin]

Molitor is pulling pitchers at the 100 pitch count. It is doubtful there will be any complete games this year.

[ashbury]

 

Molitor is pulling pitchers at the 100 pitch count. It is doubtful there will be any complete games this year.

The only one who was working on a shutout when pulled was Milone and that was the first week/start of the season. Nearly every manager these days is conservative in the first half of April. So I believe the "unwritten rules" regarding letting guys try for shutouts are still unknown where Molly is concerned.

[ashbury]

 

 

If Hughes is an ace, how much would Blyleven (who wasn't regarded as the top pitcher of his era), be worth today with those numbers?

You're right that things have changed, so I don't advocate some "definition" of Ace that harkens back quite that far.

 

I'm just saying that an Ace occasionally totally dominates another team, likely reaching 100 pitches around the 8th inning instead of the 5th or 6th, and the manager chooses to acknowledge the accomplishment by letting him try for the CG (shutouts especially) in the 9th. If that's never happening, is he really an Ace? It's not a hard and fast definition, just a benchmark I have in mind.

[stringer bell]

Let's see how Hughes stacks up next to King Felix.  I expect he'll have to pitch a great game to keep up with the acknowledged ace of the M's.

[Rosterman]

Ace: Mike Pelfrey! No question! First solid victory in 611 days, or something like that! He has everything to prove and wants a BIG contract next year!