Article: Twins Extend Phil Hughes

[Seth Stohs]

Mark Feinsand from the New York Daily News is reporting this morning that the Twins and Phil Hughes have agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $42 million. The contract could keep Hughes in a Twins uniform through the 2019 season.Hughes came to the Twins a year ago on a three year contract worth $24 million. According to Feinsand, instead of making $8 million each of the next two seasons, he will receive $9.2 million the next two years. After that, he will get $13.2 million from 2017 through 2019.

 

He can also receive another $200,000 in any season in which he pitches at least 200 innings.

 

In essence, the team's ripped up his current contract and signed the still-just-28-year-old to a five year, $58 million contract.

 

When he came to the Twins a year ago, both sides were taking on some risk. The Twins gave three years and $24 million to a guy who had really struggled as a starting pitcher with the New York Yankees. On the other hand, Hughes knew that if he had a big year, he would still be under contract at terms lower than he could get on the open market. Now the risk lies solely with the Twins.

 

The move will ensure that the Twins will have Hughes, Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco as fixtures in the rotation through 2017. In addition to Kyle Gibson, barring any trades, this leaves just one vacancy for an emerging pitching prospect like Alex Meyer or Jose Berrios in the near future.

 

In his final start Hughes went eight innings before rain and a one hour delay ended his day just one out short of a $500,000 bonus (210 innings). This certainly should help him forget about that!

 

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[sorney]

Good for him. Proves baseball (and the Twins) is flush with money.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

SWEET.

 

That's really a reasonable contract, too.

[IndyTwinsFan]

Age factors at the back end of the conract aside, if true, I like this move. IMHO, locking up a competent starter who actually wants be here is definitely not a bad or short-sighted move. The money certainly seems reasonable and fair for both parties.

 

Plus, I don't see his presence as truly "blocking" any of the highly-touted starters currently in the pipeline (Meyer, May, Berrios, Stewart, Thorpe, et al).

[tobi0040]

I like the deal, had we waited a year and he pitched well, 3-42 would not have happened.  He would have been staring at $80-100M deal a year from then.

 

Even if he throws up a 4.00 ERA next year, 3-42 seems a little light.

[markos]

Nice! I really hope his 2014 was for real, at which point this deal will be a complete steal for the Twins. Even if he regresses, it should still be good. 

 

I'm shocked that Hughes signed such a reasonable extension. He signed for less AAV than Nolasco or Santana. He is young enough that if he had just played out the next two seasons (and pitched decent and stayed healthy) he would probably be in line for something closer to Anibal Sanchez money, if not Lester money if he had two more seasons like 2014. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Even if he throws up a 4.00 ERA next year, 3-42 seems a little light.

I think you just explained why the Twins signed this deal. Short of Hughes completely imploding, this is a great deal for the Twins.

[tobi0040]

I think you just explained why the Twins signed this deal. Short of Hughes completely imploding, this is a great deal for the Twins.

 

His career ERA before last year was 4.10 if you exclude the new Yankee stadium.  So that would seem about the floor for me.  Tons of upside here.  Not much risk, outside the risk of a pitcher being hurt which comes alone with every deal.

[Physics Guy]

This is good news.  Yes, this does expose the Twins to additional risk, but I don't like the statement that the Twins assume all the risk at the higher value.  At last year's production, 13.2 M per season is still a bargain on the FA market.  It is a gamble on the Twins' part, but they seem convinced that he has figured it out and they aren't paying big money for a pitcher into his mid-30's.

[kab21]

There are no ifs, ans or buts about how ecstatic I am.

 

If he repeats last season then the extension price would have been twice this (possibly 100M) and he would have been in his mid 30's at the end.  This is perfect.

[John Bonnes]

I'm digesting this. I did not expect this.

 

On the one hand, he's only 28 years old, and I'm firmly in the camp that thinks he is for real. Would I give a 5-year, $58 million contract to a guy to a guy like that? Yeah, I think I would. It's certainly favorable to the Santana deal, which seemed like a relative bargain. 

 

Would I rip up a fantastic contract to take on three extra years of risk? I'm a LOT more tentative about that. Even if he is for real, pitchers get hurt.

 

But the last time Hughes missed much time for an injury was 2011 (shoulder) and has basically had a full load of starts four of the last five years. And again , he's just 28.

 

OK, I like this deal - like it, don't love it. But that's from someone who is pretty skeptical about extensions. 

[JB_Iowa]

It is a good deal for the Twins assuming Hughes stays somewhat on track,

 

Hughes seems to be one Californian who really likes Minnesota and he and Perkins seem to have some chemistry.  Here's hoping they can lead this pitching staff back to respectability.

[gunnarthor]

Nice deal for the Twins and it lets Hughes get one more big shot at FA when he's 32.  Good for both of them.

[kab21]

I'm digesting this. I did not expect this.

 

On the one hand, he's only 28 years old, and I'm firmly in the camp that thinks he is for real. Would I give a 5-year, $58 million contract to a guy to a guy like that? Yeah, I think I would. It's certainly favorable to the Santana deal, which seemed like a relative bargain. 

 

Would I rip up a fantastic contract to take on three extra years of risk? I'm a LOT more tentative about that. Even if he is for real, pitchers get hurt.

 

But the last time Hughes missed much time for an injury was 2011 (shoulder) and has basically had a full load of starts four of the last five years. And again , he's just 28.

 

OK, I like this deal - like it, don't love it. But that's from someone who is pretty skeptical about extensions. 

 

If you are going to do an extension you have to do it two years before they hit FA.  You still have a chance to do it one year before FA but by that point there is very little discount.  If it didn't happen by let's say this year's trade deadline then the baseball world would have put Hughes on the trade block instead of expecting him to stay with the team longer term.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The exciting thing to me about this rotation is fans are at the point now where they can talk about the Twins' fifth starter and have a legitimate argument that the pitchers (plural!) that don't make the rotation could be starting for another team.

 

It's something I'm trying to be carfeul about - I don't want to set my expectations too high. But to me, this is the best transaction of the offseason for the Twins so far. 

[nytwinsfan]

Yeah, there is a good chance he will regress a bit in terms of peripherals (K%, BB%, and HR%), but his BABIP was actually not that great last year, which could partly or fully counteract the regression in peripherals, especially in 2016 and after, when we (hopefully) have a much better outfield defense anchored by Mr. Buxton. So I definitely really like this deal. Certainly better than the Santana deal which itself was decent.

[JB_Iowa]

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS  · 13m13 minutes ago   Bronx, NY  
phil hughes new $58M/5-yr deal is twins pitching record. also gets limited no trade clause & $1M incentives

 

 

Anyone want to  bet that the Yankees are on that no trade list?

[Giles Ferrell]

Great deal. Love that the Twins got out ahead on this one and locked him up with two years left on his existing deal.

[jokin]

After this big announcement and the Twins disclosing what they think of Hughes and their intentions, long-term...  we now know four more things (at least).

 

1) Hughes isn't going to be shopped at this year's trading deadline.

 

2) With three prospects knocking on the major league door, at least two of the current top four SPs are going to be shopped between now and mid-year, 2016.  Hughes isn't going to be one of them.   (Gibson and Nolasco probably shouldn't put down any serious roots in the community).

 

3) The Twins continued the staggering of the annual expiration of one of their SP contracts, now out to 2019.

 

4) From May, Meyer and Berrios, possibly only one could still be around by the end of Hughes' contract.

Edited December 22, 2014 by jokin

[Physics Guy]

Here's the spin on MLB Traderumors:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/twins-to-extend-phil-hughes.html

[JB_Iowa]

Apparently he can block 3 teams/year:

 

He’ll have limited no-trade protection, allowing him to block deals to three clubs each season. Additionally, Hughes will earn $200K each season for reaching 200 innings pitched.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/twins-to-extend-phil-hughes.html

[ChadJacobsen]

I agree with those saying it may be a bit premature after only one season, but if he has another season like he did in 2014 his price would be ridiculous. Even if he does regress a bit (which is almost bound to happen), having him at $14 million per year is almost the baseline for an average starting pitcher in MLB these days. 

 

Love to see the Twins locking up players as the young guys make their way to the bigs. 

[sploorp]

I was hoping this would happen!  I'm one happy Twins fan today.  I'm happy for Hughes because he deserves every penny and happy for me as fan because of what he brought to the rotation and will now continue to bring for an extra few years.

[nicksaviking]

 Now the risk lies solely with the Twins.

 

 

 

I don't know, the Twins are paying Ervin Santana more per year than him and Nolasco will only be making 200K less.  Hughes has a much higher ceiling than either I would think.  Had Hughes come anywhere close to his 2014 numbers the next two years and hit the free agent market as a 30-year-old, I'd think he would have been very likely to get a 5 year +, $100 million + deal.  I think Hughes took some risk that he left money on the table, possibly a lot of money.

 

I'm leary of 5 year deals, but he's only going be 6 months older than Santana is now when his contract is up. 

Edited December 22, 2014 by nicksaviking

[Loosey]

I like the long-term view the Twins are taking on this move.  It tells me the Twins are being honest with themselves and know that they aren't going to contend this year and most likely won't be next year.  However, 2017 could be a different story if the young guys develop like we all want them to.  With this move they have a very good veteran presence to anchor a young rotation in a year when they may contend.  2017 could see a rotation of Hughes, Berrios, Meyer, May, Santana/Gibson.  Good move in my opinion.  Plus they got what could be a very big discount.

[notoriousgod71]

Apparently he can block 3 teams/year:

 

He’ll have limited no-trade protection, allowing him to block deals to three clubs each season. Additionally, Hughes will earn $200K each season for reaching 200 innings pitched.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/twins-to-extend-phil-hughes.html

The innings pitched incentives should have been set at 209.2.

[tobi0040]

I like the long-term view the Twins are taking on this move.  It tells me the Twins are being honest with themselves and know that they aren't going to contend this year and most likely won't be next year.  However, 2017 could be a different story if the young guys develop like we all want them to.  With this move they have a very good veteran presence to anchor a young rotation in a year when they may contend.  2017 could see a rotation of Hughes, Berrios, Meyer, May, Santana/Gibson.  Good move in my opinion.  Plus they got what could be a very big discount.

 

I wonder if this long term view also applies to Brian Dozier. 

Edited December 22, 2014 by tobi0040

[Rosterman]

Hughes is leaving a lot of money on the table, yet how much money do you need, folks. Of course, it is a bargain for th Twins. What would a qualifying offer be a couple of years from now. What will a qualifying offer be to keep Hughes one more year in 2020 if the two wished to stay together? 

 

But Hughes also stood a chance to implode and fall apart next season or the season after. So it buys him total security in life. The Twins took the bait, he grabbed, and hopefully it all works out for the best.

 

"Pelfrey wins 20 in 2015, signs Lifetime Extension!"

[Dman]

The innings pitched incentives should have been set at 209.2.

 

wouldn't that be 199.2 or the ability to round up to get to 200 so 196 or better?

[Brock Beauchamp]

He’ll have limited no-trade protection, allowing him to block deals to three clubs each season. 

Initial reports coming out that the three 2015 no-trade teams are:

 

Yankees, Mets, Yankees