Neal: Twins in on Ervin Santana

[tobi0040]

I think perhaps I didn't quite understand your arguements.  It sounds like you already want to throw in the towel on both May and Meyer.  Signing free agent vets in their stead would make sense if you see the spots as a long term hole.  I don't think most of us want to give up on them this early though.

 

Not at all. 

 

My logic is we were bottom 3 in pitching and need talent. Ervin provides that.

 

I would like to see Nolasco, Hughes, Ervin, Gibson, and Meyer in the rotation on April 1 and May in the pen. You could flip May and Meyer and I would not really care.   Throughout the season, someone will need to go back to AAA or get hurt and it will work itself out.

[Riverbrian]

Someone is going to get hurt... Someone is going to suck... I firmly believe you can't have too much pitching. Meyer and May and Barrios will bust through in time if they are good enough to bust through.  

 

Bring me Arms 

[Brandon]

Santana vs the other alternatives being thrown out there.

 

Which of these pitchers would you rather have? 

 

Vogelsong

Kyle Kendrick

Edison Volquez

Gee (trade with Mets)

 

Ervin Santana

 

These are the best of the starters the Twins have been linked to who are still on the board and haven't turned the Twins down yet.  Masterson has moved on from the Twins so he is not included on this list. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

We offered Santana something like 3/33 last March. Any reason to think that offer would change now? I don't see that offer getting it done.

[tobi0040]

We offered Santana something like 3/33 last March. Any reason to think that offer would change now? I don't see that offer getting it done.

 

 

I would guess he gets 14M a year over 3 years.   Last year he was telling everyone 5-80  or 5-90 and they all hung up the phone and moved on.  Had he been more realistic I think he would have gotten a decent deal.

[Brandon]

I would guess he gets 14M a year over 3 years.   Last year he was telling everyone 5-80  or 5-90 and they all hung up the phone and moved on.  Had he been more realistic I think he would have gotten a decent deal.

I think he might get the 14-15 million over 4 years and the 5th year as an option.  I could be wrong and its a 3 year deal with a 4th as an option but I think he can get the 4th year guaranteed.

[tobi0040]

I think he might get the 14-15 million over 4 years and the 5th year as an option.  I could be wrong and its a 3 year deal with a 4th as an option but I think he can get the 4th year guaranteed.

 

Who knows.  I think he may not keep a ton of teams waiting and hold out for the extra year.  Especially since being the last one standing in the game of musical chairs last year.

 

You still have Shields and Max S.   Then you have about 6-7 guys on one year deals that could be traded for.  Then another set of intriguing guys on 1 year deals.  Masterson, Anderson, and McCarthy....

[laloesch]

I would guess he gets 14M a year over 3 years.   Last year he was telling everyone 5-80  or 5-90 and they all hung up the phone and moved on.  Had he been more realistic I think he would have gotten a decent deal.

 

 

Preferably I would do nothing.  I think the Twins have enough pieces on board and should let the prospects play unless they go for a BIG NAME pitcher like Shields or Scherzer which isn't going to happen. 

 

Based on what we've been hearing so far I wouldn't be surprised if Ryan signs Santana to a 3 year 36 million dollar deal with an option and Kyle Kendrick to a one or two year contract with an option, say 18-27 million dollars.  Ryan has said he is looking for two starters.

 

That would mean a rotation of Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Kendrick and Gibson/Pelfrey/Milone fighting it out for #5.  May and Meyer would spend at least another two seasons in AAA alongside Berrios.  Again I am TOTALLY opposed to this, but I have a feeling this is the direction the Twins are moving. 

 

Santana's fastball sits in the low 90s and tends to increase in velocity as the game goes on, starting around 88, 89 and reaching as high as 95. His fastball has slight movement to it which can often favor left-handed hitters who try to pull the ball.

 

His change-up offering is in the mid 80s and can be difficult to tell if he is throwing a fastball or a change-up. The pitch seems to have a slight break down as it crosses the plate while his fastballs cuts ever-so-slightly toward the left-handed batter’s box.

 

Through his career, however, Santana’s best pitch has always been his slider. The slider clearly moves from left to right with late break.

 

Kendrick in contrast has unspectacular stuff, starting with a sinking two-seam fastball that averages right around 89-91 MPH. This pitch does show good arm-side tail, but does not miss many bats.

 

Kendrick leans heavily on an 86-87 MPH cutter, throwing it about a third of the time when facing a left-handed batter. He also throws an 82-84 MPH changeup, a pitch he has gone to just as often against righties as he has against lefties.

 

His final offering is a slurvy breaking ball around 80 MPH that might actually be two different pitches.

 

Kendrick is pretty hittable, as only his cutter misses bats at close to the league average rate."

[nicksaviking]

Someone is going to get hurt... Someone is going to suck... I firmly believe you can't have too much pitching. Meyer and May and Barrios will bust through in time if they are good enough to bust through.  

 

Bring me Arms 

 

That sounds logical, but this team doesn't have a history of doing this.  After all, they're in the same position as last year and even though the team was terrible for 3/4 of the season and they had two of their top prospects in AAA, only one got called up, and it was very late in the season.  If the team was OK with moving parts to make room for prospects, both would have been up by mid June last year.  They do not appear to be that accomodating.

 

Probably because in a futile effort to sell tickets, they like to pretend they are clinging on to playoff life right up until the trade deadline, no matter what. 

[Winston Smith]

I don't get all the blocking stuff. If you really think that the best player won't find his way onto the field then you must think the front office and coaching staff is completely incompetent.

 

If the front office or coaches play a lesser player for whatever reason they should be fired.

[tobi0040]

I don't get all the blocking stuff. If you really think that the best player won't find his way onto the field then you must think the front office and coaching staff is completely incompetent.

 

If the front office or coaches play a lesser player for whatever reason they should be fired.

 

Yup.  The cream always rises to the top.

[nicksaviking]

I don't get all the blocking stuff. If you really think that the best player won't find his way onto the field then you must think the front office and coaching staff is completely incompetent.

 

If the front office or coaches play a lesser player for whatever reason they should be fired.

 

Your words not mine, but this is a club that gave Ricky Nolasco 27 starts and let Jared Burton finish 21 games last year.

 

So no, maybe that's all it boils down to, but I don't trust them to make the right decisions about what kind of playing time is best for furture development.

[nicksaviking]

Yup.  The cream always rises to the top.

 

Not if you're continually adding water to it.

[tobi0040]

Not if you're continually adding water to it.

 

That was hilarious. 

[SwainZag]

Oh, sure. My point is that I'm less interested in 2015 than I am 2016 and beyond.

 

Again, I'm not dead set against a Santana signing... I'm simply not interested in giving him three or more years. I'd rather have two years of Santana at $16m per than four years of Santana at $12m per.

 

Agree 100%.  I think the Twins signing Santana anything longer than 2 years would be a mistake.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not if you're continually adding water to it.

http://mrwgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Orson-Welles-Slow-Clap-Reaction-Gif.gif

[nicksaviking]

That was hilarious. 

 

I have my moments.

 

I'm not trying to be contentious at all.  And really I'm making the mistake of having two completely different argeuements at once.  Santana is a fine pitcher and would upgrade the team.  I basically just don't trust that UCL for a long term deal.  I also don't like having another 4-year-deal seeing as Nolasco is basically unmovable.

 

My issues with blocking May, Meyer or whomever, basically is with the idea that back-of-the-rotation, noodle-armed NLers like Vogelsong, Gee or Kendrick would be of any significant upgrade.  The experience they would be stunting would almost surely not be worth the "depth" they provide.  2015's version of Joahn Pino could likely get you very similar results.

[dxpavelka]

I guess if it was limited to 4 years and $15 a year that might be ok, but with Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, and then Santana all locks for 15 and 16, are we ok with only one rotation spot being available for May, Meyer, and in 2016 Berrios? I know people always say you can't have too much pitching, but is that really true? Nolasco will not go to the pen, and realistically they are not going to bench Nolasco after how much they paid him. For those reasons I'd rather get Brett Anderson for a year at a much lower cost. He'll either have a 3.25 ERA, in which case great, that's worth working Meyer out of the pen this year, or he'll be on the DL, in which case start Meyer and May.

There is usually a pretty good trade market for excess starting pitching.  Not that making no additions to the worst starting pitching staff in the league last year has yet convinced me that we have such an excess-or will in the next few years.

[tobi0040]

I have my moments.

 

I'm not trying to be contentious at all.  And really I'm making the mistake of having two completely different argeuements at once.  Santana is a fine pitcher and would upgrade the team.  I basically just don't trust that UCL for a long term deal.  I also don't like having another 4-year-deal seeing as Nolasco is basically unmovable.

 

My issues with blocking May, Meyer or whomever, basically is with the idea that back-of-the-rotation, noodle-armed NLers like Vogelsong, Gee or Kendrick would be of any significant upgrade.  The experience they would be stunting would almost surely not be worth the "depth" they provide.  2015's version of Joahn Pino could likely get you very similar results.

 

Completely agree with the second part.  Ervin is the lowest I would go...

[SwainZag]

I don't get all the blocking stuff. If you really think that the best player won't find his way onto the field then you must think the front office and coaching staff is completely incompetent.

 

If the front office or coaches play a lesser player for whatever reason they should be fired.

 

Let's say you give Santana a 4 year deal.  Now in the rotation you have Santana locked up through 2018, Nolasco through 2017 and assuming Hughes gets a much deserved an extension, you have him through 2018+.  You now have 3/5 of your rotation on a rebuilding team all over the age of 30 and all making 10M+ per season.  Add in the fact you have 2nd year starter Gibson, now we have 4/5 of the rotation with players like Meyer/May/Berrios/ Gonsalves coming up through the system and should be in line for starts.

 

What do you do when if say Meyer and Berrios deserve starts by two older veterans making big salaries are undererforming?  Bench them?  You can't send them down.  The trade market for aging starters with big contracts pitching below their worth isn't good.  While Santana surely adds value now and is surely a Top 5, probably 3, SP on the team right now.....will he be in 2 years? 3 years?  That's where the 3-4 year contract is going to get a team like the Twins in trouble right now.  Just how I see it.

[strumdatjaguar]

If Ervin is signed the cream won't have a chance to float to the top.  If the Twins pay for a big contract, they play the player until the bitter end.   If it's an SP, then that SP takes up a place in the rotation, and deserving prospects languish in the minors.

[tobi0040]

If Ervin is signed the cream won't have a chance to float to the top.  If the Twins pay for a big contract, they play the player until the bitter end.   If it's an SP, then that SP takes up a place in the rotation, and deserving prospects languish in the minors.

 

I would rather wait until we have five pitchers with a sub 4.00 ERA. Right now we have one, just barely as far as career  numbers go.

[USAFChief]

Let's say you give Santana a 4 year deal.  Now in the rotation you have Santana locked up through 2018, Nolasco through 2017 and assuming Hughes gets a much deserved an extension, you have him through 2018+.  You now have 3/5 of your rotation on a rebuilding team all over the age of 30 and all making 10M+ per season.  Add in the fact you have 2nd year starter Gibson, now we have 4/5 of the rotation with players like Meyer/May/Berrios/ Gonsalves coming up through the system and should be in line for starts.

 

What do you do when if say Meyer and Berrios deserve starts by two older veterans making big salaries are undererforming?  Bench them?  You can't send them down.  The trade market for aging starters with big contracts pitching below their worth isn't good.  While Santana surely adds value now and is surely a Top 5, probably 3, SP on the team right now.....will he be in 2 years? 3 years?  That's where the 3-4 year contract is going to get a team like the Twins in trouble right now.  Just how I see it.

Yes...bench them. Or release them and pay them not to pitch.

 

If you sign nobody, you have the minor leaguers, and the money. The minor leaguers might win baseball games, the money won't. You have no choice as to who is in the rotation.

 

If you sign someone, you have him, and the minor leaguers, and don't have the money. You have the choice of who's in the rotation. Two choices to win games.

 

If the goal is to earn a large profit, option one seems like the better choice.

 

If the goal is to win baseball games, now and in the future, the second option seems wiser.

[sorney]

Let's say you give Santana a 4 year deal.  Now in the rotation you have Santana locked up through 2018, Nolasco through 2017 and assuming Hughes gets a much deserved an extension, you have him through 2018+.  You now have 3/5 of your rotation on a rebuilding team all over the age of 30 and all making 10M+ per season.  Add in the fact you have 2nd year starter Gibson, now we have 4/5 of the rotation with players like Meyer/May/Berrios/ Gonsalves coming up through the system and should be in line for starts.

 

What do you do when if say Meyer and Berrios deserve starts by two older veterans making big salaries are undererforming?  Bench them?  You can't send them down.  The trade market for aging starters with big contracts pitching below their worth isn't good.  While Santana surely adds value now and is surely a Top 5, probably 3, SP on the team right now.....will he be in 2 years? 3 years?  That's where the 3-4 year contract is going to get a team like the Twins in trouble right now.  Just how I see it.

I guess I don't see why they can't bench them, or why they can't trade them (and eat most of their contract)....to me, holding out hope that all the kids in the minors are going to succeed and be at least an MLB average pitcher is not a smart move.  Way too many pitchers flame out, blow out their elbow/shoulder, etc.  Get pitching while you can, worry about the *logjam* when you actually have one.

[tobi0040]

I guess I don't see why they can't bench them, or why they can't trade them (and eat most of their contract)....to me, holding out hope that all the kids in the minors are going to succeed and be at least an MLB average pitcher is not a smart move.  Way too many pitchers flame out, blow out their elbow/shoulder, etc.  Get pitching while you can, worry about the *logjam* when you actually have one.

 

Case and point.  The 2012 Atlanta Braves.

 

24 year old Mike Minor  4.12 ERA

25 year old Tommy Hanson   4.48 ERA

22 year old Randall Delgado  4.37 ERA

25 year old Brandon Beachy  2.00 ERA (ERA + of 200)

And they eased 26 year old Medlen in, first in the pen than the rotation.    He had a 1.57 ERA (ERA+ of 256)

 

They were all set for the next 5-10 years.

[nicksaviking]

If the goal is to win baseball games, now and in the future, the second option seems wiser.

 

I'd acutally argue that "Now" and "The Future" wins are going to be on independant paths this off season. 

 

A stop-gap pitcher now MAY provide an extra win or two, but that just delays the evaluation of whether the younger arms will be suitable for the rotation.  If May and Meyer only get 70 innings this year, we're still in the same boat in 2016 that we are now; that being decidely unsure of their capabilities.

[Steve Lein]

Just throwing this out there, as it's really the only way Santana would make sense to me:  if the Twins are serious about signing him, I think they have other resulting moves in mind if it happens.  And I believe that means trading someone from the their list of highly regarded pitching prospects for a position player...

 

If I were running things and everything went to plan with what they have now, I would hope my rotation at the end of the season was:

 

Hughes

Nolasco

Gibson

Meyer

May/Berrios

 

If Santana were to sign, that leaves no room for more than one of Meyer, May, or Berrios.  In turn, i think this only makes them useful as trade assets.

[SwainZag]

I'd acutally argue that "Now" and "The Future" wins are going to be on independant paths this off season. 

 

A stop-gap pitcher now MAY provide an extra win or two, but that just delays the evaluation of whether the younger arms will be suitable for the rotation.  If May and Meyer only get 70 innings this year, we're still in the same boat in 2016 that we are now; that being decidely unsure of their capabilities.

 

If the team isn't going to compete for a WS title this year, which I think we can agree they won't, why not give Meyer a starting spot and see what he has rather than sign a 32 year old for 8 figures and multiple years?

[tobi0040]

Beradino has us interested in Volquez as well and he is apparently looking for a 2 year deal for $20M.  

 

He had a great year last year, but the last time he was good was 2008.  I think that goofy delivery is the culprit behind why he has been so erratic.  I don't like that one.

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_27101196/gm-meetings-liriano-out-santana-becomes-twins-likeliest

[tobi0040]

I'd acutally argue that "Now" and "The Future" wins are going to be on independant paths this off season. 

 

A stop-gap pitcher now MAY provide an extra win or two, but that just delays the evaluation of whether the younger arms will be suitable for the rotation.  If May and Meyer only get 70 innings this year, we're still in the same boat in 2016 that we are now; that being decidely unsure of their capabilities.

 

Ideally one of May or Meyer are in the rotation and the other the pen on April 1.   By June 1, a rotation spot will have opened up and at that point they would have 10-15 appearences.  Then they both are in the rotation for the rest of the year.