Neal: Twins in on Ervin Santana

[nicksaviking]

Ideally one of May or Meyer are in the rotation and the other the pen on April 1.   By June 1, a rotation spot will have opened up and at that point they would have 10-15 appearences.  Then they both are in the rotation for the rest of the year.  

 

We said that last off season about both of them.  Maybe if they'd done that with one of them I'd have more faith.  I just don't, the rotation was awful last year and they couldn't find room for them.

[tobi0040]

We said that last off season about both of them.  Maybe if they'd done that with one of them I'd have more faith.  I just don't, the rotation was awful last year and they couldn't find room for them.

 

Neither had pitched in AAA yet.  May pitched well and received 10 starts by year end.  I too think Meyer should have received 10-15 starts, but the Twins didn't want him up.  I think because they either wanted another year of control or because they wanted to get him through a year healthy on a pitch count of about 80.

 

Hopefully this year is different, but Ervin should not block either guy.

[SwainZag]

We said that last off season about both of them.  Maybe if they'd done that with one of them I'd have more faith.  I just don't, the rotation was awful last year and they couldn't find room for them.

 

The forecast for them both is drastically different than it was going into last off season.

 

Meyer had thrown 70 innings above A ball and May struggled in AA to the tune of an ERA of 4.51 and 4 BB/9.  None of them had AAA success as they do now, or tasted the majors like May has.  

 

Not finding room and choosing not to give them starts are two totally different things.  

[Linus]

Let's just sign Brett Anderson and we get the best of both worlds.  If he is healthy, he becomes our first or second best pitcher and maybe we have an in on a longer term contract.

 

If he remains injury prone, Meyer or May (whoever starts the year in the bullpen) take over his starts and the worst thing that happens is that our prospects get more experience.

 

Problem solved and everybody is happy (except for Pelfrey and Milone who don't get a chance to throw their slop up there).  Now everybody is really happy....

[nicksaviking]

 

Not finding room and choosing not to give them starts are two totally different things.  

 

Yet the results are still the same: uncertainty.  This team was terrible last year, even if they didn't pitch well, they wouldn't have made the team less competitive.  It was wasted experience opportunities.  There's nothing they could learn at Rochester that they couldn't in Minneapolis except perhaps that getting paid to waste the precious few bullets blessed within their arms is significantly less.

[Winston Smith]

I've been watching the Twins since 1961 and one thing I can say for certain is that countless, and I can count fairly high, countless prospects have flamed out after hearing over and over how great they will become.

 

Imo, it is better to have more talent than spots rather than the many spots with no talent we've been having the last 4 years.

[tobi0040]

Let's just sign Brett Anderson and we get the best of both worlds.  If he is healthy, he becomes our first or second best pitcher and maybe we have an in on a longer term contract.

 

If he remains injury prone, Meyer or May (whoever starts the year in the bullpen) take over his starts and the worst thing that happens is that our prospects get more experience.

 

Problem solved and everybody is happy (except for Pelfrey and Milone who don't get a chance to throw their slop up there).  Now everybody is really happy....

 

If Anderson somehow pitched 200 IP with a 3.00, he would be on the first train out of here.  Ervin on a 3 year deal will help this team transition and hopefully win when the young guys come up. 

 

And I don't think we get a ton for him at the deadline, given the injuries. He has been good before but teams would predict an injury at any given point.  Best case you get a pick when he leaves.

 

I guess my fear with him and other inconsistent guys is that we do a one year deal and get married to them like we did Pelfrey. I don't think giving Anderson a 2-3 year extension after a one year deal is a positive thing for us.

[SwainZag]

Yet the results are still the same: uncertainty.  This team was terrible last year, even if they didn't pitch well, they wouldn't have made the team less competitive.  It was wasted experience opportunities.  There's nothing they could learn at Rochester that they couldn't in Minneapolis except perhaps that getting paid to waste the precious few bullets blessed within their arms is significantly less.

 

Meyer was rumored to be the next guy up in Minnesota until he got injured and even then he was on a innings limit.  While I think a lot of us would have liked to see him start a couple of times, by pushing his debut up til 2015 you could save an entire year with him.  Would him pitching towards the end of his innings load in September of 2014 really have gained him that much more experience than him pitching in Spring Training and April of 2015?

[nicksaviking]

Meyer was rumored to be the next guy up in Minnesota until he got injured and even then he was on a innings limit.  While I think a lot of us would have liked to see him start a couple of times, by pushing his debut up til 2015 you could save an entire year with him.  Would him pitching towards the end of his innings load in September of 2014 really have gained him that much more experience than him pitching in Spring Training and April of 2015?

 

No, but pitching in mid June before he got hurt when the Twins were already out of contention would have given us a pretty good barometer of where we stand with him now.  How many innings do we need before we can fairly evaluate these guys at the MLB level?  Because he could have gotten a good number of them under his belt last year and we'd be more clearly see the path of the rebuild.

[tobi0040]

ESPN's running blog has Ervin meeting with the Giants.  I could see them being slightly more attractive.  San Fran, defending champs, large market, NL, etc.  The he likes the cold thing is probably a ploy anyway to drive up the price.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/notebook/_/page/wintermeetings2014/mlb-winter-meetings-2014

[nicksaviking]

ESPN's running blog has Ervin meeting with the Giants.  I could see them being slightly more attractive.  San Fran, defending champs, large market, NL, etc.  The he likes the cold thing is probably a ploy anyway to drive up the price.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/notebook/_/page/wintermeetings2014/mlb-winter-meetings-2014

 

San Fran is notoriously chilly actually, it could have been part of the script the whole time.

[DocBauer]

Just some rough information concerning Santana to consider:

 

2005: First season, solid, unspectacular, 12 wins, shows potential.

2006: 200 IP 16-8 record, solid but not outstanding peripherals, quality season

2007: Big bump in the road, 5.76ERA, WAY too many hits vs IP

2008: BIG year, 16 wins again, 3.49 ERA, 200+ IP and SO's.

 

Solid over all first 4 seasons with his first, 1 lousy, and 2 anywhere from good to outstanding. But as we consider the Twins signing him potentially, and they were somewhat "in" last season so it's not a surprise, and Santana is just about to turn 32, what I'm most interested in is "what has he done lately".

 

2010: 17 wins, 3.92 ERA, over 200 IP, 169 SO's, another very good season.

2011: 11-12 record, but 3.38 ERA, 228 IP, 178 SO's, solid numbers everywhere

2012: Joins 2007 as his second bad season, losing record, ERA over 5, other periphe rals actually pretty solid overall, however.

2013: Nice rebound in KC despite 9-10 record, 3.24 ERA, 211 IP, 161 SO's.

2014: 14-10 record for the Braves, nice season, some numbers down from 2013.

 

2010-2014 recent five year stretch averages for Santana:

 

32 GS/ 207.3 IP/ 195.2 hits/ .249 OPP BA Avg/ 164 SO's/ 64 BB/ 2.56-1 SO/BB ratio.

 

Were he signed for 4 years, it would be his age 32,33,34,35 years. How long can or will he maintain his past 5 year stretch is hard to say. Regression is certainly a possibility at some point. But with good health, it's also not unreasonable that he would maintain the same or similar numbers for the next 2-3 seasons.

[DocBauer]

To me, excluding the big contract "ace" pitchers on the open market, there were 3 classifications of available FA SP this year.

 

3=A number of injured/rehab/flyer types available that could be had cheap, might offer little to nothing, but offered some solid to big rewards, though many of them might not even be ready from day one. Anderson is one of those types, obviously, but there are many others. I'm not opposed to this option.

 

2=A number of veteran guys to fill in as a #4-5 option with experience, and potentially eat some innings. ABSOLUTELY NOT the way for the Twins to go. You have May and Meyer for these spots. They are the future, need opportunity, will probably, ultimately, provide as well of service if not better...and in Milone and Pelfrey...you even have a couple veteran fill in/temporary types.

 

1=Masterson, Santana and possibly/maybe Liriano as 2-3 guys capable of taking the ball and providing a legit #2 option for a team, at worse a very good #3. Now THIS the Twins, and most teams, could use.

 

I would prefer Santana on a 3 year deal, and if we're talking a 4th, I'd prefer a club or vested option. But even if the Twins would go a full 4th season, we're talking his age 35 season, not 36-37-38 year like Lester and the Cubs, and for a lot less money.

 

I believe Hughes is for real, for a lot of reasons, despite some potential regression/improvement swings here and there. Gibson was a rookie in every way last season except for a technicality of 2 IP in 2013. Building on the experience of his "rookie" season, with even a small amount of improvement and grater consistency, his 13 wins could easily be 15, his 179 IP 190-ish,etc. Santana COULD be the Twins 3rd best SP, but would probably be #2 with good reason. A healthy Nolasco very easily could be the #4 guy, and that would actually be a good thing! May gets to be the #5 guy and build on his strong finish last season while Meyer can begin the year in AAA or the bullpen initially.

 

Most teams need at least 6 SP throughout the season at some point. As much as I love and believe in May and Meyer and want to see them, they are still rookies, still developing, and we have a real need in the rotation. Signing Santana, there is still no reason not to have room for all 6 of these guys on the team. Milone will be in the pen if not traded, and Pelfrey the same, if he's ever healthy enough to actually take the field on a regular basis.

 

I'm in on Santana.

[Twins Twerp]

I dont understand the td community right now. When i heard the twins were legitimately in on santana, I honestly assumed that most would really like it. Perhaps the community might sway that way when they get off work.

 

I honestly liked it at first, but the onger I think about it, the more I dislike it. The reason is draft pick compensation. We have picked up some (potential) studs with our second pick the last few drafts. Would I trade santana for Berrios...obviously no. Would I trade him for Burdi, probably not. Now, we are a year closer to contending and might see a few bluechippers this year. Ultimately I will trust Terry on this one, but I do not pay him market value if I lose the pick.

[DocBauer]

IF the Twins could get Ervin Santana at 3 years say 15,17,19  Million each with a fourth year option at 20 and a buyout on that fourth year it would be worth doing the deal with limited no trade protection to say division opponents Royals, Tigers, Whire Sox, Cleveland. That would be a reasonable deal, if 2015 turns south and 2016 is not looking much better for the Twins than you trade him mid 2016.

Santana is the kind of guy if he consistently gives you one strikeout and inning and can pitch 6 to 6.5 innings every outing, that is about as valuable as anything anyone else has given you in recent memory. They obviously like Ervin Santana as they did the dance with him last year. Would be nice if the Twins would finally come home from the Winter Meetings, saying our starting rotation has a real good chance to be a difference maker for us instead of a patchwork liablity.

Agree with your sentiment, but not your numbers. The per year, in my opinion to help protect the Twins investment, should be more balanced evenly per year. If possible, I'd rather front load the deal, but not sure Santana and his agent would go for that. But your point is valid about a viable rotation for next season.

 

Absolutely no-one can predict what their team, or individuals, will do for any upcoming season. But if Ryan did sign Santana, and make the extremely smart move of acquiring a CF option such as Bourjos, consider the following:

 

Santana=SS (occasionally CF perhaps)

Dozier=2B

Mauer=1B

Vargas=DH

Hunter=OF (could swap he and Dozier)

Arcia=OF

Plouffe=3B

Suzuki/Pino=C

Bourjos=CF

 

Rotation:

 

Hughes

Santana

Gibson

Nolasco

May

 

Swing:

 

Meyer

 

Pen:

 

Perkins

Fien

Thielbar

Duensing or Milone

2 others of various

[JB_Iowa]

Twins preparing offer:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/12/10/twinsights-twins-vying-three-teams-ervin-santana/

[tobi0040]

Twins preparing offer:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/12/10/twinsights-twins-vying-three-teams-ervin-santana/

 

I don't like the 4th year.  I would offer the guy 3 and $14M a year.  A team option at $15M with a $4M buyout.  He is gauranteed at 3-46.  A much better deal than Ricky's 4-49.  He improves our staff and team, gives us talent, innings, etc.  And he is off the books when our talented 4-5 guys hit arbitration.

[JB_Iowa]

Rhett Bollinger ‏@RhettBollinger  · 11s11 seconds ago 
No confirmation from #MNTwins on reported deal with Ervin Santana but Terry Ryan is set to meet with media very shortly.

[tobi0040]

I don't like the 4th year.  I would offer the guy 3 and $14M a year.  A team option at $15M with a $4M buyout.  He is gauranteed at 3-46.  A much better deal than Ricky's 4-49.  He improves our staff and team, gives us talent, innings, etc.  And he is off the books when our talented 4-5 guys hit arbitration.

 

Twitter has him at 4-60 for us

[kab21]

Same exact argument was used against Ervin Santana last year and the Twins cycled through crap at the back of the rotation.  Last year we had to leave spots open for Worley, Diamond and Deduno because they were 4.00ish ERA guys on the cheap.   All I read this year is 'but there are 6-7 pitchers that need to pitch' while leaving out that one of them is coming back from a strained elbow and could be headed to TJ.  May is not that great of a prospect and could easily fizzle again.  Meyer has his own injury problems.  Milone actually might not be very good at all. 

 

The Twins are setup to be rotating the likes of Darnell, Pino and Albers (different names but the same crap) through the bottom of the rotation once again. 

[SwainZag]

Same exact argument was used against Ervin Santana last year and the Twins cycled through crap at the back of the rotation.  Last year we had to leave spots open for Worley, Diamond and Deduno because they were 4.00ish ERA guys on the cheap.   All I read this year is 'but there are 6-7 pitchers that need to pitch' while leaving out that one of them is coming back from a strained elbow and could be headed to TJ.  May is not that great of a prospect and could easily fizzle again.  Meyer has his own injury problems.  Milone actually might not be very good at all. 

 

The Twins are setup to be rotating the likes of Darnell, Pino and Albers (different names but the same crap) through the bottom of the rotation once again. 

 

Yeah, because Worley, Diamond and Dedeno and the 8 total starts they combined for last year is the reason the Twins didn't sign Santana.  IMO opinion it had a whole lot more to do with the fact the Twins had to give up a draft pick, had just  signed Hughes, Nolasco and Pelfrey and still had Correia hanging around and not to mention a 26 year old named Gibson.  

 

Comparing the SP situation of last off season to the SP situation of this off season is like night and day.

[kab21]

Yeah, because Worley, Diamond and Dedeno and the 8 total starts they combined for last year is the reason the Twins didn't sign Santana.  IMO opinion it had a whole lot more to do with the fact the Twins had to give up a draft pick, had just  signed Hughes, Nolasco and Pelfrey and still had Correia hanging around and not to mention a 26 year old named Gibson.  

 

Comparing the SP situation of last off season to the SP situation of this off season is like night and day.

 

But those 3 in addition to the imminent arrival and success of prospects were the argument made not to sign Santana last year. 

[JB_Iowa]

Rhett Bollinger ‏@RhettBollinger  · 13m13 minutes ago 
Terry Ryan moved up his daily session with reporters because he's going on the Twins Hot Stove Show & the Scout's Dinner. Not bc of Santana.

[USNMCPO]

Yes...bench them. Or release them and pay them not to pitch.

 

If you sign nobody, you have the minor leaguers, and the money. The minor leaguers might win baseball games, the money won't. You have no choice as to who is in the rotation.

 

If you sign someone, you have him, and the minor leaguers, and don't have the money. You have the choice of who's in the rotation. Two choices to win games.

 

If the goal is to earn a large profit, option one seems like the better choice.

 

If the goal is to win baseball games, now and in the future, the second option seems wiser.

Damn Chief, you keep using that logic thingy!

[jorgenswest]

This is his last big contract. He will go to the best offer.

 

The Twins can pay big for four years. Streamer projects 1.7 WAR next year and he probably would put up something similar the following year. Expect back end of the rotation the final two years. The Twins also have to expect injury sometime in any 4 year contract of a pitcher. Let's hope it is sometime in the second two years.

[jorgenswest]

Yes...bench them. Or release them and pay them not to pitch.

If you sign nobody, you have the minor leaguers, and the money. The minor leaguers might win baseball games, the money won't. You have no choice as to who is in the rotation.

If you sign someone, you have him, and the minor leaguers, and don't have the money. You have the choice of who's in the rotation. Two choices to win games.

If the goal is to earn a large profit, option one seems like the better choice.

If the goal is to win baseball games, now and in the future, the second option seems wiser.

Simple. One vote for Chief as GM

 

My worry is the current GM will hold onto these guys far too long. They had a chance to give away Willingham's contract in year two and kept him when it was clear he no longer could move in the OF. Pelfrey is still on the roster. Does anyone think Nolasco won't be in the starting rotation? I just don't trust the releasing part of the logic.

[Twins Twerp]

Simple. One vote for Chief as GM

My worry is the current GM will hold onto these guys far too long. They had a chance to give away Willingham's contract in year two and kept him when it was clear he no longer could move in the OF. Pelfrey is still on the roster. Does anyone think Nolasco won't be in the starting rotation? I just don't trust the releasing part of the logic.

No reports of anyone offering anything for willingham? Only on our website here did people "think" that willingham was a hot commodity...he was what he always has been, a terrible fielding, often injured power righty. No one knows who we would have got, please do not use that argument

[jorgenswest]

No reports of anyone offering anything for willingham? Only on our website here did people "think" that willingham was a hot commodity...he was what he always has been, a terrible fielding, often injured power righty. No one knows who we would have got, please do not use that argument

It is well documented the Orioles claimed Willingham. I said at the time and I say now, they should have let him go. The Orioles would have had to pick up the contract. If they let him go, they would have looked for a LF solution last winter. Instead they continue to seek a solution in LF this winter. Is this argument so absurd that it should not even be mentioned?

 

My point is that they held onto Willingham when they could have given his contract away. I want them to sign Santana. I know that they will not release him if he does not pitch well. At least not until Chief is made GM.

[ashbury]

ESPN's running blog has Ervin meeting with the Giants.  I could see them being slightly more attractive.  San Fran, defending champs, large market, NL, etc.  The he likes the cold thing is probably a ploy anyway to drive up the price.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/notebook/_/page/wintermeetings2014/mlb-winter-meetings-2014

So there's a chance we won't be able to give away our money?

[howeda7]

I don't have a problem with 3 years and a 4th option or 4 at most. The $ is not an issue for 2014 and probably not for 2015. But buy 2017/18 it could be. As long as they can stay out of those years, go for it.