Neal: Twins in on Ervin Santana

[TKGuy]

LENIII states that Santana likes to play in the cold and would be interested in the Twins.  I would go 4 years/$60 million.  He is an innings eater and in my opinion is the best FA pitcher out there that is realistic for the Twins.

 

What are your thoughts?

[nytwinsfan]

I guess if it was limited to 4 years and $15 a year that might be ok, but with Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, and then Santana all locks for 15 and 16, are we ok with only one rotation spot being available for May, Meyer, and in 2016 Berrios? I know people always say you can't have too much pitching, but is that really true? Nolasco will not go to the pen, and realistically they are not going to bench Nolasco after how much they paid him. For those reasons I'd rather get Brett Anderson for a year at a much lower cost. He'll either have a 3.25 ERA, in which case great, that's worth working Meyer out of the pen this year, or he'll be on the DL, in which case start Meyer and May.

[nicksaviking]

Not unless he'll take 1 year, which obviously he won't.  He's not a strikeout pitcher anymore, except in inter-league games it would seem, and while the Twins and everyone else think "eating innings" is of the utmost importance, it is not.  The team has good young bullpen pieces and their potential future arms are knocking on the door, innings can be eaten by those fellas. 

 

I'm still waiting for that partial tear in his UCL to completely tear as well.  Whoever decides to give him a four year deal is rolling the dice they won't be stuck holding the bag on that inevitableTJ surgery. 

[twinkiesfan11]

Pass, Not a big enough upgrade IMO relative to the commitment it would take. How about focus on Anderson, Meachy, Morrow, Medlen types and then address the bullpen. 

[tobi0040]

I would push for a 3 year deal with a team option or vested 4th year based on innings.  But I really do like him. I think he is our 2nd most talented pitcher behind Hughes.  A clear upgrade that drops all down a peg, forces someone to the pen. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

One year, maybe two at most. He's not terribly different than Nolasco.

 

If he wants more than that, walk away.

 

I'd prefer they didn't sign him at all.

[Halsey Hall]

Adding an arm, any arm, may improve the team a bit this season.  But other teams are improving also and I still see us in or near the bottom next year. 

 

I'd rather roll with the younger guys getting their feet wet, May and Meyer, and watch as they improve thru the year.  That along with youth like Arcia, Vargas, Santana. Sano and whoever gets a chance gaining more experience and improving thru the year.  Individual improvement collectively improves the team as a whole for the future.   With a new manager, coaching staff, and youth movement, there'll be growing pains but I can see this team doing some damage in the 2016 season.  So I've resigned myself to not measure this next season in terms of wins and losses, but to experience and improvement, looking ahead for a bright future. 

[tobi0040]

One year, maybe two at most. He's not terribly different than Nolasco.

 

If he wants more than that, walk away.

 

I'd prefer they didn't sign him at all.

 

I disagree about the Nolasco comp.   Ervin's career ERA is 4.17, mostly all AL.  Nolasco's was 4.37,  all NL when we signed him.  And Ervin's career ERA has been really dinged by two bad years.

[gunnarthor]

I wouldn't be too upset with Santana but he's not my first choice.  I'd still prefer Masterson. Santana is one of the few pitchers where "rest it" worked and he didn't need TJ surgery.  That was like 6 years ago and he's made 30 or more starts every year since then so clearly he'll blow his elbow out the second he puts on the uniform.  

 

I do like him though and he would be a pretty nice #3 pitcher but having him might mean that May and Meyer start in AAA and Milone in the pen (Hughes, Gibson, Santana, Nolasco, Pelfrey to start in April.)  That's not great but not entirely bad either - the team will need SP depth.  Last year they had 9 pitchers make at least 5 starts, the year before it was 10 different pitchers.  So depth is good.

[tobi0040]

I wouldn't be too upset with Santana but he's not my first choice.  I'd still prefer Masterson. Santana is one of the few pitchers where "rest it" worked and he didn't need TJ surgery.  That was like 6 years ago and he's made 30 or more starts every year since then so clearly he'll blow his elbow out the second he puts on the uniform.  

 

I do like him though and he would be a pretty nice #3 pitcher but having him might mean that May and Meyer start in AAA and Milone in the pen (Hughes, Gibson, Santana, Nolasco, Pelfrey to start in April.)  That's not great but not entirely bad either - the team will need SP depth.  Last year they had 9 pitchers make at least 5 starts, the year before it was 10 different pitchers.  So depth is good.

 

I view Ervin as really the only guy on the FA market that is both attainable and a clear upgrade in our rotation.  Others may end up being an upgrade, like Masterson, Anderson, or Mccarthy, but those guys have red flags and the deal they are looking for will likely not keep them here when we are good again. 

[lightfoot789]

He will be the most consistent pitcher on staff. I expect Hughes to have another great year, but he has not held the track record of Santana. He was arguably the best free agent pitcher signed last year not named Hughes. He becomes 1A immediately for the Twins with The Future Aces coming up in the next year or two. Great sign if possible. Find a way to part with Nolasco if needed but get Santana. Need inning eaters to preserve bullpen for duration of season.

[Linus]

At this point, I would pass.  That UCL tear would be the deciding factor for me.

 

Brett Anderson or nothing.  If he's healthy, he becomes our best pitcher.  If he's not May gets more starts.

[sorney]

Sign em.  Twins pitching has been horrible the last couple years.  Add the talent, worry how it fits later

[kab21]

Pass, Not a big enough upgrade IMO relative to the commitment it would take. How about focus on Anderson, Meachy, Morrow, Medlen types and then address the bullpen. 

 

He would step in as the Twins #1 or #2 pitcher.  that's a big upgrade and I'm alright having enough depth that May/Meyer/Berrios are actually blocked by good pitchers.  It's a long season and pitchers always get hurt or disappoint.

[nicksaviking]

Sign em.  Twins pitching has been horrible the last couple years.  Add the talent, worry how it fits later

 

What if the real talent happens to be in AA and AAA and a move like this actually prevents you from adding it?

 

Ha, also the bit about Santana liking to pitch in the cold just hit me.  If his idea of cold is Kansas City, he's seriously underestimating the differences between early spring between midwestern cities.  All flyover country is not created equal. 

 

Still, it's nice to hear an athlete not imply that it's coast or bust.

[nicksaviking]

He would step in as the Twins #1 or #2 pitcher.  that's a big upgrade and I'm alright having enough depth that May/Meyer/Berrios are actually blocked by good pitchers.  It's a long season and pitchers always get hurt or disappoint.

 

But when it's the big money pitchers who disappoint, the depth does no good as the team isn't going to eat a large contract.

[sorney]

What if the real talent happens to be in AA and AAA and a move like this actually prevents you from adding it?

 

Ha, also the bit about Santana liking to pitch in the cold just hit me.  If his idea of cold is Kansas City, he's seriously underestimating the differences between early spring between midwestern cities.  All flyover country is not created equal. 

 

Still, it's nice to hear an athlete not imply that it's coast or bust.

If the real talent is in AA and AAA and is ready to move up, that's a great problem to have.  Pitching can always be dealt somewhere (salary dump, C level prospects, whatever). 

[tobi0040]

What if the real talent happens to be in AA and AAA and a move like this actually prevents you from adding it?

 

Ha, also the bit about Santana liking to pitch in the cold just hit me.  If his idea of cold is Kansas City, he's seriously underestimating the differences between early spring between midwestern cities.  All flyover country is not created equal. 

 

Still, it's nice to hear an athlete not imply that it's coast or bust.

 

 

Someone commented awhile back that we should worry about having too much starting pitching when we actually have that problem.  My opinion is a bottom 3 starting rotation should worry about talent first and depth second.

 

 

I also don't think it is a lock the Twins even want Meyer in the rotation on April first.  May or Meyer breaking through in the pen is not a bad idea.   Between Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, and May, at least one will get hurt or pitch their way out of the rotation at some point.

[sorney]

But when it's the big money pitchers who disappoint, the depth does no good as the team isn't going to eat a large contract.

I'm not saying they will, but WHY can't they just eat the contract???  It's a sunk cost, the revenues continue to go up....

[tobi0040]

But when it's the big money pitchers who disappoint, the depth does no good as the team isn't going to eat a large contract.

 

True, but if that is the worry we should never pay a pitcher a lot of money.  Right?  Or do you feel Ervin is more risky?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I disagree about the Nolasco comp.   Ervin's career ERA is 4.17, mostly all AL.  Nolasco's was 4.37,  all NL when we signed him.  And Ervin's career ERA has been really dinged by two bad years.

Santana is a better pitcher but he's not a lot better. Santana, 99 ERA+. Nolasco, 91 ERA+. Santana is more volatile while Nolasco is more consistently mediocre.

 

Ervin Santana is the kind of middle-of-the-road pitcher that I believe the Twins should avoid at this point. There's a very good chance that Meyer or Berrios is a better pitcher going forward... Maybe not in 2015 but certainly in 2016 and beyond.

[kab21]

But when it's the big money pitchers who disappoint, the depth does no good as the team isn't going to eat a large contract.

 

Santana isn't depth.  He would signed as a #1/2 for this team.  yes, he could get injured and completely collapse like 2014 Nolasco but if you dismiss every FA for that reason the Twins should never sign anyone anywhere ever.

 

Signing guys like Pelfrey is depth and pointless though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He would step in as the Twins #1 or #2 pitcher.  that's a big upgrade and I'm alright having enough depth that May/Meyer/Berrios are actually blocked by good pitchers.  It's a long season and pitchers always get hurt or disappoint.

IMO, it's almost a lock that he wouldn't be the Twins best pitcher. Santana has been an extremely volatile pitcher in his career and is entering his age 32 season. His great peaks are more than offset by his pretty awful valleys.

 

He won't be better than Phil Hughes for the next two years. He might be better than Phil in one of those years but almost certainly not both. IMO, there's a decent chance Nolasco would outperform Santana (not 50% but a decent chance), not to mention a possible breakout from May, Gibson, or Meyer.

[tobi0040]

Santana is a better pitcher but he's not a lot better. Santana, 99 ERA+. Nolasco, 91 ERA+. Santana is more volatile while Nolasco is more consistently mediocre.

 

Ervin Santana is the kind of middle-of-the-road pitcher that I believe the Twins should avoid at this point. There's a very good chance that Meyer or Berrios is a better pitcher going forward... Maybe not in 2015 but certainly in 2016 and beyond.

 

 

Odds are though, in 2016 or 2017 Santana would be one of our best five pitchers.  Have to be a rosy outlook to think we will have five better.   Lot of assumptions build in there.  We can re-sign Hughes.  2-3 young guys come up and are better than a 4.00 type pitcher.... Gibson does not take a step back, Nolaso turns it around, etc.

 

He has had a few really, really good years as well.  ERA + of 127 twice.  Over 100 three different times.  Those types of years could propel us back to relevancy if a few other things line up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Odds are though, in 2016 or 2017 Santana would be one of our best five pitchers.  Have to be a rosy outlook to thnk we will have five better.   Lot of assumptions build in there.  We can re-sign Hughes.  2-3 young guys come up and are better than a 4.00 type pitcher.... Gibson does not take a step back, Nolaso turns it around, etc.

Oh, he'll almost certainly be one of the best five pitchers in 2015 and probably 2016... 2017? Way too hard to predict that given Santana's silly career arc. At this point, I'd rather see the Twins roll the dice on Meyer and Berrios.

 

I believe the Twins should be looking for a big upgrade or no upgrade at all.

[tobi0040]

Oh, he'll almost certainly be one of the best five pitchers in 2015 and probably 2016... 2017? Way too hard to predict that given Santana's silly career arc. At this point, I'd rather see the Twins roll the dice on Meyer and Berrios.

 

I believe the Twins should be looking for a big upgrade or no upgrade at all.

 

 

 

 

If Santana and Nolasco average 200 IP each and have a 4.30 ERA....which is about the career norms we cut 44 runs off our total from last year (assuming the starter ERA was 5.30 which I think is in the ballpark). 

 

 

 

 

That cuts our differential from 62 down to 18.  That is before any benefit of May, Meyer, Sano, Buxton, or Berrios is layered on.

 

 

 

I think he would provide innings, talent, and fewer runs.  And be an additional barrier from the likes of Pelfrey, Pino, etc.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If Santana and Nolasco average 200 IP each and have a 4.30 ERA....which is about the career norms we cut 44 runs off our total from last year (assuming the starter ERA was 5.30 which I think is in the ballpark). 

 

That cuts our differential from 62 down to 18.

Oh, sure. My point is that I'm less interested in 2015 than I am 2016 and beyond.

 

Again, I'm not dead set against a Santana signing... I'm simply not interested in giving him three or more years. I'd rather have two years of Santana at $16m per than four years of Santana at $12m per.

[nytwinsfan]

Santana isn't depth.  He would signed as a #1/2 for this team.  yes, he could get injured and completely collapse like 2014 Nolasco but if you dismiss every FA for that reason the Twins should never sign anyone anywhere ever.

 

Signing guys like Pelfrey is depth and pointless though.

 

Agreed about Pelfrey. The reason not to sign Santana is not because he might get injured/pull a Nolasco, but because even if he pitches as expected, he is at best a marginal upgrade over what May or Meyer is likely to provide at a cost of a draft pick and $15 or so for more than 2-3 years. If it were just about spending this year, then sure, I'd say do it. But in 2017 or 2018 we may actually be at a point where signing the RIGHT free agent could make the difference between a good team and a playoff contender. And if we do this, we won't have the money available then. And no it is not a given that we would be able to trade Santana then. Even if he doesn't pull a Nolasco, a 34-35 year old declining Santana may not be worth a team eating his $15 million salary in 2018.

[tobi0040]

Agreed about Pelfrey. The reason not to sign Santana is not because he might get injured/pull a Nolasco, but because even if he pitches as expected, he is at best a marginal upgrade over what May or Meyer is likely to provide at a cost of a draft pick and $15 or so for more than 2-3 years. If it were just about spending this year, then sure, I'd say do it. But in 2017 or 2018 we may actually be at a point where signing the RIGHT free agent could make the difference between a good team and a playoff contender. And if we do this, we won't have the money available then. And no it is not a given that we would be able to trade Santana then. Even if he doesn't pull a Nolasco, a 34-35 year old declining Santana may not be worth a team eating his $15 million salary in 2018.

 

 

A 3 year deal for Ervin would mean he is off the books before anyone outside of Hughes gets expensive.  Dozier's deal should be light the first few years.  Meyer, Berrios, Sano, and Buxton would all be in rookie deals.

 

We have $16.5M off the books with Pelfrey and Hunter in 2016 alone.  Plouffe could be traded as well.

[strumdatjaguar]

No No No.  An upgrade like this wins maybe 3-5 more games next season.  A three year contact to an Ervin Santana-type player will then block Meyer, Berrios, Gonsalves, Stewart and other promising pitchers and keep them in the minors.   The plan should be to develop a good young team and then to add an FA (or two or three) or to trade for one (2 or 3) when the Twins need the extra boost to be a contender - not now -  when the rewards would be negligible and the downside worse.