Neal: Twins in on Ervin Santana

[Brock Beauchamp]

No No No.  An upgrade like this wins maybe 3-5 more games next season.  A three year contact to an Ervin Santana-type player will then block Meyer, Berrios, Gonsalves, Stewart and other promising pitchers and keep them in the minors.   The plan should be to develop a good young team and then to add an FA (or two or three) or to trade for one (2 or 3) when the Twins need the extra boost to be a contender - not now -  when the rewards would be negligible and the downside worse. 

If Santana could truly add five wins next season, that's a good deal for the Twins. That puts them close to 80 wins. A couple of breaks here and there and they're a fringe contender.

 

My biggest issue with Santana is that I don't think he's worth anything close to five wins with a chance he's worth zero wins over Meyer or Gibson or May.

[tobi0040]

No No No.  An upgrade like this wins maybe 3-5 more games next season.  A three year contact to an Ervin Santana-type player will then block Meyer, Berrios, Gonsalves, Stewart and other promising pitchers and keep them in the minors.   The plan should be to develop a good young team and then to add an FA (or two or three) or to trade for one (2 or 3) when the Twins need the extra boost to be a contender - not now -  when the rewards would be negligible and the downside worse. 

 

The assumption that all the guys turn out and we have $$$ to add 2-3 free agents maybe rosy.  I think it is either a one or the other.

 

I was thinking of teams that had excess pitching talent and had to trade guys.  I honestly can't think of one off the top of my head.  I bet we would be hard pressed to come up with five cases in the last 3-4 years of a team having to do this and then not regretting it later.  And we are starting from a pretty poor place to begin with.

[James]

No way to a one year deal, even if he'd take one, which I don't think will happen this time around.

 

I don't like the idea of signing a guy that could block potentially better players from getting time.  On top of that, you're giving up a second round draft pick to do it.  Maybe I covet draft picks a little too much, but I the combination of not possibly having space in the rotation for guys like Meyer and Berrios because the Twins tried to win another few games in 2015 and making the farm system weaker by forfeiting a second round pick doesn't sit right with me. 

[nytwinsfan]

A 3 year deal for Ervin would mean he is off the books before anyone outside of Hughes gets expensive.  Dozier's deal should be light the first few years.  Meyer, Berrios, Sano, and Buxton would all be in rookie deals.

 

We have $16.5M off the books with Pelfrey and Hunter in 2016 alone.  Plouffe could be traded as well.

 

I agree a 3 year deal wouldn't be a terrible idea, although I'd still be against it. But my post was explicitly based on the assumption of "more than 2-3 years."

[Brandon]

I say sign him.  We are 1 good starting pitcher away from being a good team.  Plus I wonder if we could trade Nolasco to the Reds for one of their starting pitchers who is only 1 year away from free agency.  The Reds get a pitcher controlled for 3 years in exchange for a slightly better one controlled for 1.  That would improve our rotation and give us the flexibility to bring up new talent.  Even with just the signing we would have 4 starters capable of going 200 innings with at least league average ERA.

 

another way to think of this is Santana will likely pitch around 200 innings and give up around 80 runs.  compared to our 4th starter he is replacing from last year Correia and May combined to give up 111 runs in 174 innings.  That's over a 30 run improvement there alone. 

 

Or you could look at it this way another option Edison Volquez is looking for a 2/20 deal and I can see that happening pretty quickly.

[JB_Iowa]

I'm getting tired of this phrase:

 

potentially better players

 

This team seems very slow in seeing any of that potential realized.  At some point you have to stop hoping and start seeing,

 

I'm not all that sold on Santana but the Twins do need someone better than another #3.- #5.

[Platoon]

Adding an arm, any arm, may improve the team a bit this season.  But other teams are improving also and I still see us in or near the bottom next year. 

 

I'd rather roll with the younger guys getting their feet wet, May and Meyer, and watch as they improve thru the year.  That along with youth like Arcia, Vargas, Santana. Sano and whoever gets a chance gaining more experience and improving thru the year.  Individual improvement collectively improves the team as a whole for the future.   With a new manager, coaching staff, and youth movement, there'll be growing pains but I can see this team doing some damage in the 2016 season.  So I've resigned myself to not measure this next season in terms of wins and losses, but to experience and improvement, looking ahead for a bright future.

 

And that's the approach the front office should take. And affirm! Tell us it's all about getting experience, and start bringing in some of the young talent. There are more fans who want to see the future, and will live with the losses it involves, than there are people who will buy tickets to see Torii after June 1st! And frankly I think the record would be better also

[tobi0040]

I say sign him.  We are 1 good starting pitcher away from being a good team.  Plus I wonder if we could trade Nolasco to the Reds for one of their starting pitchers who is only 1 year away from free agency.  The Reds get a pitcher controlled for 3 years in exchange for a slightly better one controlled for 1.  That would improve our rotation and give us the flexibility to bring up new talent.  Even with just the signing we would have 4 starters capable of going 200 innings with at least league average ERA.

 

another way to think of this is Santana will likely pitch around 200 innings and give up around 80 runs.  compared to our 4th starter he is replacing from last year Correia and May combined to give up 111 runs in 174 innings.  That's over a 30 run improvement there alone. 

 

Or you could look at it this way another option Edison Volquez is looking for a 2/20 deal and I can see that happening pretty quickly.

 

Plus the other 8-10 runs for the remaining 26 IP.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm getting tired of this phrase:

 

potentially better players

I'm tired of it as well but that's because the Twins are so slow in promoting pitchers.

 

Trevor May had an ugly ERA but he struck out 44 hitters in 45 innings. He started showing more control in the later innings as well. Alex Meyer should have seen action in 2014 and after 130 innings in AAA, has little left to learn in the minors. Jose Berrios is steamrolling the minors and might start the season in AAA. Even if he starts in AA, he could be banging on the door by June.

 

At some point, those kids need to just play so we can remove the "potentially" from that phrase.

[James]

I'm getting tired of this phrase:

 

potentially better players

 

This team seems very slow in seeing any of that potential realized.  At some point you have to stop hoping and start seeing,

 

I'm not all that sold on Santana but the Twins do need someone better than another #3.- #5.

I agree that the Twins need to do better than another #3 - #5 as well.  I think Berrios and Meyer will be those players.  I know they're not up yet.  So, I'm projecting.  I get it.  

 

My problem is, in the next few years, I think Santana will only be a #3 - #5 type.  I could be wrong about that.

[sorney]

I'm tired of it as well but that's because the Twins are so slow in promoting pitchers.

 

Trevor May had an ugly ERA but he struck out 44 hitters in 45 innings. He started showing more control in the later innings as well. Alex Meyer should have seen action in 2014. Jose Berrios is steamrolling the minors and might start the season in AAA. Even if he starts in AA, he might be banging on the door by June.

 

At some point, those kids need to just play so we can remove the "potentially" from that phrase.

I think that's the problem....no one really believes they'll get their chance to *play* because of the slow promotion.  Berrios, man, I don't expect to see him until 2017...

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think that's the problem....no one really believes they'll get their chance to *play* because of the slow promotion.  Berrios, man, I don't expect to see him until 2017...

If Berrios continues pitching the way he has thus far, there's no way he comes to Minnesota in 2017.

 

The Twins, for all their pitching promotion faults, have sent Berrios through the minors quickly. It's pretty obvious they like the kid quite a bit, so much that they gave him a single AAA start in his age 20 season.

[tobi0040]

I'm tired of it as well but that's because the Twins are so slow in promoting pitchers.

 

Trevor May had an ugly ERA but he struck out 44 hitters in 45 innings. He started showing more control in the later innings as well. Alex Meyer should have seen action in 2014. Jose Berrios is steamrolling the minors.

 

At some point, those kids need to just play so we can remove the "potentially" from that phrase.

 

The flip side is I think reserving 60% of your rotation for rookies or 2nd year players will leave these very boards antsy/dissapointed.  They won't all turn out and most will struggle for at least a year.  This same conversation in 2008 would have set aside 60% of the rotation for Baker, Blackburn, and Slowey.    Maybe they weren't rated as high as Meyer or Berrios.....but you get the point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The flip side is I think reserving 60% of your rotation for rookies or 2nd year players will leave these very boards antsy/dissapointed.  They won't all turn out and most will struggle for at least a year.  This same conversation in 2008 would have set aside 60% of the rotation for Baker, Blackburn, and Slowey.    Maybe they weren't rated as high as Meyer or Berrios.....but you get the point.

It's a risk, without a doubt... But between May, Gibson, Meyer, Berrios, and Milone as backup, I think it's a gamble worth taking unless the front office is willing to pony up for someone of Hughes' calibre or better.

 

It's a rare occasion where I take the stance "go big or go home" but I think that's the attitude the Twins should have at this point.

[sorney]

If Berrios continues pitching the way he has thus far, there's no way he comes to Minnesota in 2017.

 

The Twins, for all their pitching promotion faults, have sent Berrios through the minors quickly. It's pretty obvious they like the kid quite a bit, so much that they gave him a single AAA start in his age 20 season.

Sorry, that was typed somewhat tongue-in-cheek....

[TheLeviathan]

I'd rather gamble on Masterson and that 20% higher GB%.  At least he'll have a chance to get outs consistently.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd rather gamble on Masterson and that 20% higher GB%.  At least he'll have a chance to get outs consistently.

Not to mention that Masterson will demand fewer years. That's my main sticking point with Santana. After a string of one-year deals, he seems to want something more long-term.

 

If Nolasco wasn't already on the roster, I'd be all for that signing... But I hate the idea of locking up two mediocre guys in their 30s through 2017.

[tobi0040]

It's a risk, without a doubt... But between May, Gibson, Meyer, Berrios, and Milone as backup, I think it's a gamble worth taking unless the front office is willing to pony up for someone of Hughes' calibre or better.

 

It's a rare occasion where I take the stance "go big or go home" but I think that's the attitude the Twins should have at this point.

 

I actually completely agree with you about the philosophy.  However Ervin was the lowest guy on my list that qualifies as go big for me. Sounds like he does not qualify for you. 

 

He is not an ace, although he has squeeked in a few years that look like it. 

 

The other thing is, May for the Twins and Meyer at AAA struggled to get past the 5 IP mark last year.  Meyer was on a pitch count but he went 3-4 IP quite a bit.  Having a durable guy has other benefits as well, on top of the talent upgrade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I actually completely agree with you about the philosophy.  However Ervin was the lowest guy on my list that qualifies as go big for me. Sounds like he does not qualify for you. 

 

He is not an ace, although he has squeeked in a few years that look like it. 

 

The other thing is, May for the Twins and Meyer at AAA struggled to get past the 5 IP mark last year.  Meyer was on a pitch count but he went 3-4 IP quite a bit.  Having a durable guy has other benefits as well, on top of the talent upgrade.

I'd be a lot higher on Santana if his yearly stats didn't yo-yo so much. If you get a 120 ERA+ out of him in 2015, you can almost bank on getting a 90 ERA+ in 2016. He's basically Francisco Liriano without knee-buckling "this guy is completely unhittable" stuff (though he's obviously a better "pitcher" whereas Liriano just hurls it somewhere toward the approximate location of the plate).

[TheLeviathan]

Not to mention that Masterson will demand fewer years. That's my main sticking point with Santana. After a string of one-year deals, he seems to want something more long-term.

 

If Nolasco wasn't already on the roster, I'd be all for that signing... But I hate the idea of locking up two mediocre guys in their 30s through 2017.

 

I would be ok with Masterson on a Hughes type of contract.  I really think he could bounce back nicely with a good infield behind him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would be ok with Masterson on a Hughes type of contract.  I really think he could bounce back nicely with a good infield behind him.

I'd prefer two years. I think Masterson could be had on a two year deal.... Say, 2 years, $18-20m.

[James]

I actually completely agree with you about the philosophy.  However Ervin was the lowest guy on my list that qualifies as go big for me. Sounds like he does not qualify for you. 

 

He is not an ace, although he has squeeked in a few years that look like it. 

 

The other thing is, May for the Twins and Meyer at AAA struggled to get past the 5 IP mark last year.  Meyer was on a pitch count but he went 3-4 IP quite a bit.  Having a durable guy has other benefits as well, on top of the talent upgrade.

Not to nit pick, but Trevor May has pitched about 150 inning the past few years.  I think the only reason he hasn't pitched more was because we walking too many guys.  He's showing between AAA and the last few starts in the MLB that he's getting that part of his game under control.  I think he'll be fine in the innings department.  Gibson pitched 179.1 innings last year as well.  Once again, he probably would have more if he hadn't had a rough patch in there.  

 

So, I guess I'm saying that I think we'll see more inning out of the starting staff even without Santana.

 

I'm all in favor of signing Masterson if possible.  

[tobi0040]

Not to nit pick, but Trevor May has pitched about 150 inning the past few years.  I think the only reason he hasn't pitched more was because we walking too many guys.  He's showing between AAA and the last few starts in the MLB that he's getting that part of his game under control.  I think he'll be fine in the innings department.  Gibson pitched 179.1 innings last year as well.  Once again, he probably would have more if he hadn't had a rough patch in there.  

 

So, I guess I'm saying that I think we'll see more inning out of the starting staff even without Santana.

 

I'm all in favor of signing Masterson if possible.  

 

Here are May's starts for the Twins last year:

 

2 IP, 2.1 IP, 4.2 IP, 5.1 IP, 4.2 IP, 5 IP, 5 IP, 6 IP, 4.2 IP, and 6 IP.

 

The BB's have been an issue in the past for him as well.   If May and Meyer were in the rotation, having a guy like Santana could prevent an additional bullpen guy and add flexibility to the bench.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not to nit pick, but Trevor May has pitched about 150 inning the past few years.  I think the only reason he hasn't pitched more was because we walking too many guys.

Not to mention the MiLB season is a full month shorter than the MLB season. That's worth an extra 25-35 innings a season.

[tobi0040]

Not to mention the MiLB season is a full month shorter than the MLB season. That's worth an extra 25-35 innings a season.

 

 

 

May has walked 4.4 batters per 9 in the minors and 4.3 per 9 in the majors. It is unclear to me how he projects as a 6-7 IP guy per start next year, especially since averaging 4 and change last year for the Twins.

 

He has a career 5 IP and change average in the minors and he had a bulk of those innings between ages 21-24, repeating the same league twice.

[realistic twins fan]

The Twins have lost a lot of games the last four years, that's not breaking news.  To say the twins need to consider that Santana could be taking a rotation spot from Trevor May or any other prospect other than Meyer this season or next is ridiculous!  This guy is a proven innings eater and competent middle of the rotation pitcher.  The twins need as many good arms for the starting rotation as possible.  I'm sure the bullpen would appreciate a guy who throws 200 innings.  If they were to add another guy like Masterson, I'd be okay with that too.  Get as many good arms as possible, and the starting rotation will fall into place.  I'm not saying I think they'll sign two guys, I know that's a pipe dream.  I'm just saying you can't have enough good pitching.  If a free agent is good enough to be the number three or better go get him!

 

[nicksaviking]

 

I also don't think it is a lock the Twins even want Meyer in the rotation on April first.  May or Meyer breaking through in the pen is not a bad idea.   Between Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, and May, at least one will get hurt or pitch their way out of the rotation at some point.

 

I'm more than confident the Twins don't want Meyer in the rotation April 1st.  However there have been plenty of things the Twins clearly havne't wanted the last half decade that they should have.  Meyer will lose a year of service time if he starts the year in the rotation, so perhaps it's not the best idea to shelve him for a month, how lucky for the front office to have that excuse, because fact of the matter is, Meyer should have been in the rotation when the Twins were functionally done last year, which was mid June. 

 

As forthe five pitchers listed above, signing free agents isn't going to allow Meyer or May to pitch themselves out of the rotation.  The team also isn't going to let any level of performance from Nolasco or Hughes knock them out of the rotation. 

 

I really don't have that much of a probem with Santana, he'd be a fine addition, but I don't want him for multiple years, that UCL is a time bomb, and the fact that he couldn't get a better deal last year tells me every other club agrees.  The real issue is the talk of the Ryan Vogelsongs and Dillon Gees, guys who likely at best would be 50/50 to be an upgrade and next to a sure bet to have no impact on any kind of postseason push.  Those are the kinds of guys this team cannot keep signing at he expense of giving the younger(ish) arms MLB experience.

[tobi0040]

I'm more than confident the Twins don't want Meyer in the rotation April 1st.  However there have been plenty of things the Twins clearly havne't wanted the last half decade that they should have.  Meyer will lose a year of service time if he starts the year in the rotation, so perhaps it's not the best idea to shelve him for a month, how lucky for the front office to have that excuse, because fact of the matter is, Meyer should have been in the rotation when the Twins were functionally done last year, which was mid June. 

 

As forthe five pitchers listed above, signing free agents isn't going to allow Meyer or May to pitch themselves out of the rotation.  The team also isn't going to let any level of performance from Nolasco or Hughes knock them out of the rotation. 

 

I really don't have that much of a probem with Santana, he'd be a fine addition, but I don't want him for multiple years, that UCL is a time bomb, and the fact that he couldn't get a better deal last year tells me every other club agrees.  The real issue is the talk of the Ryan Vogelsongs and Dillon Gees, guys who likely at best would be 50/50 to be an upgrade and next to a sure bet to have no impact on any kind of postseason push.  Those are the kinds of guys this team cannot keep signing at he expense of giving the younger(ish) arms MLB experience.

 

All good points.   I agree Nolasco and Hughes won't  pitch themselves out.  That was more for the other guys.  Any of them could get hurt though.  Nolasco's arm could go too given his injuries.

[nicksaviking]

 

The other thing is, May for the Twins and Meyer at AAA struggled to get past the 5 IP mark last year.  Meyer was on a pitch count but he went 3-4 IP quite a bit.  Having a durable guy has other benefits as well, on top of the talent upgrade.

 

 

May has walked 4.4 batters per 9 in the minors and 4.3 per 9 in the majors. It is unclear to me how he projects as a 6-7 IP guy per start next year, especially since averaging 4 and change last year for the Twins.

 

He has a career 5 IP and change average in the minors and he had a bulk of those innings between ages 21-24, repeating the same league twice.

 

I think perhaps I didn't quite understand your arguements.  It sounds like you already want to throw in the towel on both May and Meyer.  Signing free agent vets in their stead would make sense if you see the spots as a long term hole.  I don't think most of us want to give up on them this early though.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the question I ask is who is going to go if/when the younger guys are ready. I'm fine with Meyer in AAA to start, I think that's the right choice, but Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana won't be going anywhere due to contracts. Do the Twins trade Gibson if Meyer is ready, especially if no one will pick up the other contracts?